海螺水泥20240603

Company and Industry Overview * Company: Hailiu Cement * Industry: Cement and Concrete * Report Date: June 5, 2024 * Speaker: Zhang Qian, Analyst at GF Securities Key Points 1. Hailiu Cement Financials * Revenue: 141 billion yuan in 2022-2023 * Net Profit: 10.4 billion yuan in 2022-2023 * Profit Margin: 45% of the industry's total profit * Profit Structure: * Domestic cement: 9 billion yuan * Stock: 1 billion yuan * Overseas cement: 3 billion yuan * Trade: 1-2 billion yuan [2] 2. Cement Industry Supply and Demand * Supply: Excess capacity and declining demand * Demand: Downward trend since 2022 * Capacity Utilization: 59% in 2023 * Price: Declining since early 2022 [3] 3. Capacity Reduction and Market Dynamics * Short-term: Short-term production control through peak-load reduction * Long-term: * Administrative measures: Technological transformation or淘汰落后产能 * Market-based measures: Competition-driven exit or carbon market-driven exit [6][7][11] 4. Demand Outlook * 2022: Double-digit decline * 2023-2024: 5% decline * 2024: 5% decline * Long-term: Declining demand trend, with a gradual decline rate [13][15] 5. Profitability Outlook * 2022-2023: Declining profitability due to excess capacity and price decline * 2024: Expected improvement in profitability due to peak-load reduction and price increase [16][19] 6. Hailiu Cement's Competitive Advantages * Cost and Fee Leadership: * Lower raw material and fuel costs * Lower fixed costs due to high capacity utilization * Efficient management and low leverage [22][23][24] * Profitability: * Expected to maintain a 30 yuan per ton profit advantage over the industry * Expected to achieve 97 billion yuan in net profit in 2024 under a moderate scenario [21][26] 7. Growth Drivers * Stock: High profit margin and strong growth potential * Overseas Cement: Steady growth and contribution to profit [27][31][33] 8. Investment Outlook * Positive outlook: * Hailiu Cement's cost and fee advantages provide a strong foundation for profitability * The company's diversified business model and growth drivers offer upside potential [35]