CICC(601995) 中金财富期货·2024-06-11 01:13Key Points Summary Industry Overview 1. Market Demand and Supply: The Chinese market has maintained stable demand, with tire companies showing strong demand since the beginning of last year. There has been a surge in帘子布 demand in European and American markets since February this year, mainly due to tire factories replenishing inventory. The utilization rate of domestic帘子布 industry has increased from 85% last year to over 95% now. [1] 2. Price Changes: Since February this year, the price of 1300D and 1500D high modulus low shrink帘子布 has increased from 16,000 yuan/ton to 21,000 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of about 1,000 to 1,500 yuan. [1] 3. Inventory: Currently, there is a shortage of帘子布 and high modulus low shrink丝 inventory, with almost no stock available. [1] 4. Major Producers and Capacity: Major domestic producers include Yin Du, Lamei, Kaiping, Xiaoxing, Kesei, etc., with a total domestic capacity of about 37.7 billion tons. Hai Li De is the largest domestic producer, with a capacity of about 7.5 billion tons. [1] 5. New Capacity and Equipment: Ocean Technology plans to add 3 billion tons of capacity, but currently lacks配套 spinning equipment, expected to be completed by the end of the year. [1] 6. Production and Technical Barriers of High Modulus Low Shrink丝: The equipment for producing high modulus low shrink丝 is different from that of industrial silk, and cannot be interchanged for production. [1] 7. Future Price Trend: The supply side is driving up prices, but the demand side has taken a relatively tolerant attitude to prevent suppliers from raising prices too high. The price trend of涤纶帘子布 and high modulus low shrink丝 is relatively fragile, mainly dependent on foreign inventory replenishment demand. Once inventory replenishment ends, prices may fall. [1] 8. Substitution and Technical Barriers:涤纶帘子布 is mainly used for semi-steel tires, while尼龙 66帘子布 is mainly used for bias tires and engineering tires. There is a certain substitution relationship between the two in the carcass layer of semi-steel tires. The substitution of涤纶帘子布 for尼龙 66帘子布 has patent barriers involving Xiaoxing and Bridgestone's patents. [1] 9. Impact of New Energy Vehicles on Tire Demand: The tire wear rate of new energy vehicles is higher, and the tire service life is only 60% to 80% of that of oil vehicles. The increase in demand for new energy vehicle tires is expected to increase significantly in the future. [1] 10. Order and Export: Foreign tire companies have signed annual contracts with polyester帘子布 supply companies, while domestic tire factories negotiate orders monthly. It is expected that demand will remain strong at the end of this year. [1] Q&A Session 1. Market Changes: The main change in the market began in February this year. The demand for tires in China, especially the demand for Chinese tire companies, has been good, because the export of Chinese tires began from the beginning of last year. So there is no change in the demand of domestic factories, and the supply has not changed fundamentally either, and has maintained a relatively good level of operation rate. But the growth in February this year is due to the inventory replenishment demand. Since February this year, there has been a surge in帘子布 demand in European and American markets, which was unexpected. We believe that this is due to the inventory replenishment demand of tire factories. [2] 2. Price Changes: The price has increased quite a lot recently. Since February, the price of 1300D or 1500D帘子布, which is generally used as a benchmark, has increased from 16,000 yuan/ton to about 21,000 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of about 1,000 yuan. [2] 3. Inventory: Currently, the inventory of the entire industry is very tight, with almost no stock available. [2] 4. Major Producers and Capacity: The domestic capacity last year should be about 37.7 billion tons, but we estimate it to be 40 billion tons. Major domestic producers include Yin Du, Lamei, Kaiping, Xiaoxing, Kesei, and Keshui. Among them, Hai Li De is the largest domestic producer, with a capacity of 7.5 billion tons. [2] 5. New Capacity: This year, Ocean Technology will increase capacity by 3 billion tons, but it lacks配套spinning equipment, expected to be completed by the end of the year. [2] 6. New Enterprises in the Market: New enterprises entering the market need to go through a verification period of half a year to one year before they can officially supply products. [2] 7. Price Trend: The supply side is driving up prices, but the demand side has taken a relatively tolerant attitude to prevent suppliers from raising prices too high. [2] 8. Substitution and Technical Barriers:涤纶帘子布 is mainly used for semi-steel tires, while尼龙 66帘子布 is mainly used for bias tires and engineering tires. There is a certain substitution relationship between the two in the carcass layer of semi-steel tires. [3] 9. Impact of New Energy Vehicles on Tire Life: The wear rate of tires used in new energy vehicles is much higher, and the tire service life is only 60% to 80% of that of oil vehicles. [3] 10. Order and Export: Foreign tire companies have signed annual contracts with polyester帘子布 supply companies, while domestic tire factories negotiate orders monthly. [4] Additional Information 1. New Capacity Expansion: Ocean Technology, Youfu, and Junma plan to increase high modulus low shrink丝 capacity in the future, but the specific time depends on the delivery and debugging of equipment. [1] 2. Impact of International Relations on Overseas Expansion: Under the current international relations, especially in Japan and Germany, the possibility of enterprises expanding overseas is relatively low. This is mainly affected by international relations. [5]