更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 17 February 2025 Commodity Economic Comment Economics Trump policies drive more commodity market fragmentation ◆ A consequence of rapidly shifting and uncertain US trade policies under the new Trump administration is that commodity markets are fragmenting. This has been most vivid recently for metals such as copper, aluminium and gold, where a wide premium has opened up between US and offshore prices. It reflects that businesses are seeking commodity supply certainty, but that t ...

Summary of Wanhua Chemical (600309.SS) Conference Call Company Overview - Wanhua Chemical is the global leader in MDI production with a total capacity of 4.1 million tonnes as of mid-2024, with facilities in Ningbo, Yantai, Fujian, and Hungary [23][12][10]. Industry Context - A petition was filed for anti-dumping duties on US MDI imports from China, which could impact Wanhua significantly as the US is China's largest MDI export market, accounting for 22% of total exports [2][4]. - Rising protectionism is identified as a risk for Wanhua due to China's increasing reliance on exports to manage domestic surplus [2][25]. Financial Performance - The company reported a net profit of Rmb 16,234 million in 2022, which increased to Rmb 16,816 million in 2023, but is projected to decline to Rmb 13,763 million in 2024 [5][6]. - Earnings per share (EPS) growth is expected to be negative in 2024 (-18.2%) but recover slightly in 2025 (3.5%) and 2026 (10.0%) [5][6]. - The target price for Wanhua Chemical shares is set at Rmb 64, reflecting a 12x price-to-earnings ratio based on 2026-27 estimates [4][26]. Market Dynamics - Domestic MDI prices increased by Rmb 600-700 per tonne (3-4%) post-Chinese New Year due to re-stocking and low inventory levels [2]. - However, the company faces challenges with non-PU chemicals struggling at low pricing levels, which could lead to further softening of earnings in Q4 2024 [2][4]. Economic Outlook - The forecast for US natural gas prices suggests a rise to $4.2-$5.0 per mmbtu in 2025-26, which may affect Wanhua's profitability from its new mixed feed cracker [3]. - The company is expected to experience a decline in return on equity (ROE) due to increased market fragmentation and competition in the functional materials sector [25]. Risks and Concerns - Key downside risks include execution risks in new business ventures, lower-than-expected MDI spreads due to weak demand, and potential price reductions by competitors to gain market share [28]. - The potential for increased tariffs on US imports of propane could disproportionately affect Wanhua compared to its peers [25][4]. Conclusion - Wanhua Chemical is currently rated as a "Sell" due to anticipated declines in earnings and the impact of external market pressures, including trade tensions and domestic oversupply issues [4][25].

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 February 16, 2025 04:10 AM GMT M Update HK/China Transportation & Infrastructure | Asia Pacific Week in Review (Issue 7-25) Week in review: BCIA FY24 preliminary results; soft post-CNY container shipping spot market . BCIA miss on DTA reversal: BCIA announced a net loss of Rmb1.35-1.65bn, much worse than the market expectation of a Rmb500-700mn loss. We view this result as a minor negative, as a significant increase in tax expense was a negative surprise. We estimate ~Rmb2bn cum ...

Summary of TSMC Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) - **Industry**: Semiconductors - **Market Cap**: NT$27,484,964 million [7] - **Stock Rating**: Overweight [7] - **Price Target**: NT$1,388.00, representing a 31% upside from NT$1,060.00 as of February 14, 2025 [7] Key Points and Arguments US Fab Expansion - TSMC's decisions regarding US fab expansion will prioritize customer needs and shareholder value rather than supporting Intel [2][3] - TSMC management previously stated they would not consider a joint venture (JV) in the US, unlike in Japan and Europe, due to existing business advantages in leading-edge technology [4] - TSMC is not interested in acquiring Intel's US fabs, as they expect significant business from Intel as an IDM customer [5] R&D and CoWoS Capacity - There is skepticism about the necessity of moving R&D to the US, given the strong R&D capabilities of Intel and IBM [9] - TSMC's CoWoS (Chip on Wafer on Substrate) capacity in the US will depend on key customer needs, with potential cost-sharing arrangements [10] - TSMC has partnered with Amkor for CoWoS in the US, which may address local production demands [10] Market Dynamics and Financial Outlook - TSMC has invested US$37 billion in R&D over the past decade, contributing to its competitive edge [11] - The company anticipates that US tariffs could impact long-term margins, but remains optimistic about growth driven by AI demand and its technological leadership [11][17] - Inventory corrections are expected to persist into the second half of 2024, with a potential increase in outsourcing from Intel's CPU business in 2025-2026 [17] Risks and Considerations - Potential headwinds include the impact of US tariffs and geopolitical issues, which may act as a stock overhang until further clarifications are provided [11] - TSMC's gross margin is projected to remain above 53% in the long term, with pricing strategies for large customers being a key factor [17] Additional Insights - TSMC's growth strategy is closely tied to its relationships with key partners and customers, emphasizing the importance of shareholder benefits in decision-making [11] - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a shift, with TSMC maintaining a strong market share in leading-edge foundry services despite potential demand weaknesses [17] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from TSMC's recent conference call, highlighting the company's strategic direction, market positioning, and financial outlook.

Summary of Xiaomi (1810.HK) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Xiaomi Corporation - **Ticker**: 1810.HK - **Industry**: Technology, specifically smartphones and IoT products Key Financial Highlights - **4Q24E Results**: Expected to beat expectations with adjusted net income forecasted at RMB 6.8 billion, 19% above consensus [1][2] - **Revenue Forecast**: Anticipated total revenue of RMB 106 billion, representing a 15% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) increase and a 45% year-over-year (YoY) increase [2] - **Smartphone Sales**: Projected to grow by 13% YoY to RMB 49.9 billion, driven by a 5% increase in shipments and a 7% increase in average selling price (ASP) [2] - **IoT Revenue**: Expected to reach RMB 29.6 billion, a 45% YoY increase, supported by subsidies [2] - **Internet Revenue**: Anticipated to rise 15% YoY to RMB 9.1 billion due to increased advertising and pre-installation income [2] Gross Margin Insights - **Overall Gross Margin**: Expected to be 21.0%, up 0.6 percentage points QoQ [2] - **Smartphone Gross Margin**: Forecasted to stabilize at 12.0%, reflecting a 0.3 percentage point increase QoQ due to lower memory prices [2] - **IoT Gross Margin**: Estimated at approximately 20.0% [2] - **Internet Gross Margin**: Expected to be around 76.0% [2] Market Position and Performance - **Smartphone Market Share**: Xiaomi achieved a 13% global market share with 42.7 million shipments in 4Q24, a 4.8% YoY increase [2] - **China Market Share**: In China, Xiaomi's share reached 16% with 12.2 million units shipped, a 28.4% YoY increase [2] Future Outlook and Catalysts - **Target Price Increase**: Target price raised by 26% to HK$51.7 based on improved growth and gross margin outlook across all segments [1][3] - **Upcoming Products**: Anticipated catalysts include the launch of Mi 15 Ultra, SU7 Ultra, and AI smart glasses [1] - **EV Segment**: Forecasted to contribute RMB 17.4 billion in revenue in 4Q24E with a gross margin of 20% [8] Revised Projections - **Smartphone Shipments**: Revised forecast for shipments to reach 168 million in 2024E, with gross margins improving due to high-end models and better cost control [9] - **IoT Revenue Growth**: Increased growth projections to 28% in 2024E, supported by consumer electronics subsidies [9] - **EV Shipments**: Revised target for EV shipments to 137,000 in 2024E, reflecting strong demand [9] Valuation Metrics - **Market Capitalization**: Approximately HK$1,122.3 billion (US$144.2 billion) [3] - **Expected Total Return**: 15.7% based on the new target price [3] - **Valuation Methodology**: Sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation based on 20x core business earnings and 1.0x EV sales [22] Risks - **Competitive Pressures**: Risks include increased competition in the smartphone market and potential challenges in maintaining market share against rivals like Huawei [23] - **Cost Pressures**: Rising expenses related to new store expansions and interest rate increases could impact profitability [23] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call regarding Xiaomi's financial performance, market position, future outlook, and associated risks.

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 14 February 2025 | 1:59PM EST Energy, Utilities & Mining Pulse: Investors Asking: What Moved Stocks This Week? This week in the Pulse we ask our senior analyst team to discuss key themes or headlines that moved stocks this week. On the macro, the team reflects on recent developments around tariffs and the regulatory environment and the potential stock implications. Additionally, the team discusses micro drivers including stocks where there is a dislocation in the valuation or op ...

February 16, 2025 11:29 AM GMT 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 China Healthcare | Asia Pacific Chart of the Week – 2024 Market Growth Key Takeaways The current flu season is predominantly H1N1 (note), which has lifted same-store sales growth in December and January for the leading pharmacy chains (note). Taken together with valuation levels, we see a better tactical opportunity in retail pharmacy stocks (Yifeng, LBX) versus distributors, which sounded more circumspect about 2025 (note). 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shu ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 16 Feb 2025 15:26:22 ET │ 17 pages China Healthcare Riding on China AI Rally CITI'S TAKE Riding on the DeepSeek-driven technology rally, China online healthcare names have surged YTD. Fundamentally, we expect AI will help improve operating efficiency of online healthcare names. We expect more TP upside ahead with OPM expansion. Compared to US peers trading at 18.0x/13.6x FY25E/26E PS multiples, Chinese healthcare AI stocks are much cheaper, trading at 5.0x/4.2x and 5.4x/4.5x for ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the China Internet sector, particularly the major players known as BAT (Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent) and their responses to advancements in AI technology [1][2]. Core Insights - **Lower Training/Inference Costs**: The reduction in costs associated with training and inference is expected to accelerate the adoption of AI technologies, benefiting BAT companies [1][2]. - **Market Sentiment**: The market is anticipated to prioritize management comments regarding AI applications and monetization over traditional core business performance during earnings reports [2]. - **Stock Performance**: Since the emergence of "DeepSeek" on January 24, HSTECH has increased by approximately 20%, driven by AI developments from ByteDance and Alibaba, as well as partnerships like Apple-BABA [2]. Company-Specific Insights - **Tencent**: - Remains the top pick due to breakthroughs in consumer-facing AI applications. The share price has increased by 22%, but it has lagged behind Alibaba's 40% increase since "DeepSeek" emerged. The expectation is that this trend will reverse as focus shifts to AI applications and monetization [3]. - Anticipated growth in consumer applications, particularly through super apps like Weixin, is seen as a catalyst for future performance [3]. - AI-driven ad technology upgrades are already contributing positively to revenue [3]. - **Alibaba (BABA)**: - Maintained an equal-weight rating, with a highlighted high-end cloud value estimated at US$40 per share. The company is recognized as a leading hyperscaler and LLM developer [3]. - Projected cloud revenue growth is estimated at 18% per annum, reaching RMB 163 billion (US$21 billion) by fiscal year 2027, with a steady-state EBITA margin of 15% [3]. - Under a bullish scenario, cloud revenue could grow at 20-25%, reaching RMB 179 billion (US$23 billion) by fiscal year 2027, with a higher EBITA margin of 20% [3]. - **Baidu (BIDU)**: - An equal-weight rating is maintained, with concerns about potential disruptions to its core search business from generative AI and uncertainties regarding monetization strategies in the face of rising competition from Tencent and ByteDance [4]. Additional Considerations - **Risks**: - For Tencent, risks include intensified competition in social networks and online video, which could drive up costs and necessitate more aggressive content investments [15]. - For Alibaba, risks include regulatory scrutiny and potential slower recovery in core e-commerce monetization [12]. - For Baidu, the risks are centered around the effectiveness of its AI strategy and competition in the search market [4]. Conclusion - The conference call highlighted the significant impact of AI advancements on the China Internet sector, with Tencent positioned favorably due to its consumer applications, while Alibaba and Baidu face challenges and opportunities in their respective domains. The overall sentiment suggests a cautious optimism as companies navigate the evolving landscape of AI technology and market competition [1][2][3][4].