February 10, 2025 10:44 AM GMT China Coal | Asia Pacific Weekly Coal Update: Weak Prices Post Chinese New Year Thermal coal prices weakened further post Chinese New Year (CNY), while coking price remains stable, FY24 coal production strengthened in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang. Slight decrease in spot thermal coal prices: QHD 5500 was down 0.3% WoW, to Rmb704/t as of February 7. CCI 5500 was flat WoW at Rmb761/t. BSPI was down 0.3% WoW at Rmb698/t. Mine-mouth prices for Shanxi Datong 5800 decreased 0.3% WoW, ...

February 10, 2025 01:54 PM GMT China Data Centers | Asia Pacific Revisiting the DC into REITs Thesis; Bull Case In Sight We continue to like China IDCs. Despite the rally, we still see big upside ahead as REITs issuance plays out. High leverage is a double edge sword, magnifying fundamental changes. We are in a demand upcycle and interest rate downcycle. Data center injections into REITs: since our note on this trend (see here), we have observed fast developments on this front in the past three months: We h ...

We preview another busy week of earnings, which should show short term strength in equipment revenues amid continued geopolitical spending drivers. ALAB (EW, reporting after the market close on Monday, February 10): We expect another strong quarter as Astera benefits from Amazon's Trainium ramp. The supply chain continues to indicate a very steep ramp in Amazon's Trainium units, where Astera has significantly higher content. We think it is likely there will be upside in the March quarter from what we and th ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report discusses the impact of tariffs on various markets, specifically focusing on the US, Europe, and Japan, highlighting the uncertainty created by tariff announcements and their implications for economic growth and profitability [2][13][14]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Tariff Impact**: Tariffs have introduced significant uncertainty affecting disinflation paths, growth prospects, the yield curve, and the dollar. The focus for investors has shifted towards profitability from quality factors [2][13]. - **Market Resilience**: Stocks with higher domestic revenue exposure are more resilient to market shocks caused by tariffs, outperforming the broader market during periods of tariff announcements [13][40]. - **Economic Cycle Update**: The economic cycle in the US has shifted from 'recovery' to 'expansion', while the inflation regime in Japan has changed from 'stable' to 'rising' [5][6][24]. - **Interest Rate Expectations**: The Federal Reserve is expected to implement only one rate cut in June 2025, down from previous expectations of two cuts, due to ongoing tariff uncertainties [13][24]. Regional Insights United States - **Recommended Factors**: The recommended investment factors include Low PEG, R&D-to-market cap, and Profitability. These factors have shown reduced sensitivity to changes in the 10-year Treasury yield, indicating potential resilience in a volatile market [45][46]. - **Market Beta**: The market beta for top quintile stocks in these factors has decreased, suggesting they may be more resilient during market corrections [46]. Europe - **Recommended Factors**: Key factors include Up vs. Down earnings revision (3ma), Free Cash Flow Yield, and Net Buyback Yield. These factors have shown defensive characteristics, particularly in weak market conditions [57][58]. - **Market Performance**: The MSCI Europe index is close to the strategist's price target, with tariffs posing downside risks [58]. Japan - **Recommended Factors**: The focus is on Net Buyback Yield, Disfavoring Small Size, and Low PEG. The emphasis is on domestic factors that are less affected by tariffs, with a positive outlook on corporate governance improvements [67][68]. - **Market Dynamics**: The report notes that long-term yields in Japan have risen sharply, which is generally unfavorable for smaller firms [68]. Additional Important Insights - **Volatility Analysis**: The report highlights increased volatility in equity markets following tariff announcements, with significant fluctuations observed in the VIX, VSTOXX, and VNKY indices [15][19]. - **Performance Metrics**: The analysis of factor performance on the first trading day after the tariff announcement showed that Low Volatility and Large Cap stocks outperformed, while the performance of Growth vs. Value was less clear [31][41]. - **Tariff Resilience Screening**: A stock screening process was developed to identify stocks likely to be resilient amidst tariff-related market shocks, with results indicating outperformance compared to respective markets [78][80]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and recommendations from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current market dynamics influenced by tariffs and economic conditions across different regions.

| Price (07 Feb 25 15:00) | Rmb69.000 | | --- | --- | | Target price | Rmb70.000 | | Expected share price | 1.4% | | return | | | Expected dividend yield | 0.7% | | Expected total return | 2.1% | | Market Cap | Rmb185,765M | | | US$25,487M | Jamie WangAC +852-2501-2772 jamie.ck.wang@citi.com Flash | 09 Feb 2025 18:12:22 ET │ 12 pages Shenzhen Inovance Technology (300124.SZ) NEV Electric Controller and E-axle System Market Shares Both Improved in 2024 CITI'S TAKE According to NE Times' data released on 7 Feb ...

Summary of Conference Call on Greater China Technology Semiconductors Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the Greater China Technology Semiconductors industry, particularly the impact of new shipment restrictions imposed by TSMC on Chinese IC design firms due to escalating US-China trade tensions [1][2]. Key Points 1. **New Shipment Restrictions**: TSMC has implemented shipment restrictions effective January 31, 2025, requiring products using 16/14nm and below technologies to be packaged by a US Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS)-certified third-party OSAT provider [1][2]. 2. **Impact on Chinese OSATs**: None of the 24 approved OSAT providers are Chinese, leading affected IC design houses to prefer changing OSAT suppliers rather than foundry suppliers due to limited foundry capacity in mainland China [2][4]. 3. **Revenue Exposure**: Companies like Forehope (688363.SS) with over 90% revenue from China customers are expected to be most affected. Other companies like JCET (600584.SS) and Tongfu (002156.SZ) will also face negative impacts but with lower revenue exposure [2][4]. 4. **Beneficiaries of Order Shift**: OSATs on the approved list, such as ASE (3711.TW) and Amkor (AMKR.O), are likely to benefit from the order shift as affected IC design houses seek new suppliers [2][4]. 5. **No Further Impact on TSMC's China Business**: Currently, there is no additional impact on TSMC's business in China beyond the previous cloud AI semiconductors [2][4]. Important Considerations - **Export Controls**: The call includes a note on export controls maintained by the U.S. Department of Commerce, emphasizing that investors must ensure compliance with applicable export control laws when engaging with affected entities [3][4]. - **Industry View**: The overall industry view is categorized as "In-Line," indicating that the performance of the industry is expected to align with broader market benchmarks [5][4]. Additional Insights - **Analyst Ratings**: The report includes various stock ratings for companies within the semiconductor sector, indicating a mix of "Overweight," "Equal-weight," and "Underweight" ratings for different firms [54][55]. - **Potential Conflicts of Interest**: Morgan Stanley acknowledges potential conflicts of interest due to its business relationships with companies covered in the research [5][4]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and implications for the Greater China Technology Semiconductors industry as discussed in the conference call.

Arindam Sandilya AC (65) 6882-7759 arindam.sandilya@jpmorgan.com JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Singapore Branch See the end pages of this presentation for analyst certification and important disclosures. All charts are sourced from J.P. Morgan unless otherwise specified. {[{xTcfaSlj-ZSQMv-ljRpIM0CyzixwoI9MYXn8bUl3CMBEvXsLMhwdUw}]} Near-term USD bullish but pondering medium-term risks Global FX Strategy 10 February 2025 FX Outlook Presentation Near-term USD bullish but pondering medium-term risks Global FX Stra ...

China Metals and Mining Equities Year of the snake: What to look for post CNY holiday? China Gold: Gold prices have recently soared to record highs with increasing central bank demand and rising trade tensions. We believe the near-term market environment will be positive for pure gold names like Zhaojin. The company's operation has been relatively unremarkable compared to that of its peers, with growth and profitability constrained by muted volume growth, but we think Zhaojin is different now. The outlook f ...

12 February 2025 | 6:59AM HKT China Data Centers AI investments with efficiency to drive sustainable IDC development and valuation re-rating; Buy VNET/GDS The emergence of DeepSeek is challenging the traditional assumptions of AI training costs, and is enabling faster growth of AI inference demand. More importantly, this development along with other recent AI model launches (e.g. ByteDance Doubao 1.5 Pro, Moonshot Kimi k1.5, Alibaba Qwen2.5, S1 developed by a team led by Professor Li Fei-Fei at Stanford Uni ...

Summary of Ningbo Joyson Management Call Company and Industry Overview - **Company**: Ningbo Joyson (600699.SS) - **Industry**: Humanoid Robots and Automotive Safety Components Key Points from the Management Call 1. **Stock Performance**: Joyson's share price increased by over 25% in the past month, driven by developments in the humanoid robot sector, outperforming other companies in the same field such as Sanhua (+55%), Tuopu (+53%), and Leader Drive (+60%) [2][7] 2. **Technological Focus**: Joyson is actively developing essential components for humanoid robots, including sensors (IMU sensors, six-axis force sensors, LIDAR, RGBD cameras, olfactory sensors), power management systems (ACDC, DCDC converters, wireless charging), and shell parts [5] 3. **R&D Prioritization**: The company is prioritizing research and development at this stage, with no major capital expenditure plans currently in place [5] 4. **Collaboration**: Joyson is collaborating with a domestic AI chip manufacturer and plans to expand into the domain controllers business for robots in the future [5] 5. **Product Launch**: A subsidiary, Ningbo PIA, launched the "Jarvis2.0" humanoid robot product in November 2024 [5] 6. **Market Outlook**: The management expressed a promising adoption roadmap for the humanoid robot industry, with industrial applications expected in the next three years and broader public service and home scenarios in 5-10 years [5][10] 7. **Technical Challenges**: Key challenges identified include ensuring stable bipedal walking, lightweight design, and the integration of large AI models as the robot's 'brain' [10] 8. **IPO Plans**: Joyson has initiated a Hong Kong IPO plan in December 2024, aiming to issue a maximum of 15% of shares post-IPO to support its globalization strategy [5] 9. **Fundamental Concerns**: Despite the positive sentiment around humanoid robots, there are concerns regarding Joyson's fundamentals due to weak global auto demand [2][7] Financial Projections and Valuation - **Price Target**: The price target for Joyson is set at Rmb16.50, based on a 15x 2025E P/E ratio, aligning with the historical average for China auto parts listed companies [8] - **Risks**: Potential risks to the rating and price target include fluctuations in global automobile demand and variations in material, wages, logistics, and operating expenses [9] Additional Insights - **Market Position**: Joyson is recognized as the world's second-largest automotive safety component supplier and a leading smart vehicle content supplier [7] - **Investor Sentiment**: The company's recent expansion into humanoid robots is expected to influence stock sentiment positively, despite underlying concerns about its automotive business [2][7] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the management call regarding Ningbo Joyson's strategic direction, market outlook, and financial considerations in the context of the humanoid robot industry.