更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 Asia Pacific Equity Research 29 April 2025 China Property Property Data Monitor Mainland China: weekly sales stayed bleak; HK: Sierra Sea (1st batch) sold out Mainland China Hong Kong SAR See page 16 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures. J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect ...

Summary of Shenzhen Longsys Electronics Co Ltd Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Shenzhen Longsys Electronics Co Ltd - **Stock Code**: 301308.SZ - **Industry**: Technology Semiconductors - **Region**: Asia Pacific Key Points Financial Performance - **1Q25 Revenue**: Rmb4.26 billion, down 4.4% YoY but up 1.5% QoQ due to continued pricing pressure [10][14] - **Net Loss**: Narrowed to Rmb202 million in 1Q25 from Rmb330 million in 4Q24, attributed to better cost control and reduced inventory write-downs; breakeven expected in 2Q25 [10][12] - **Price Target Adjustment**: Revised down from Rmb125.00 to Rmb100.00 based on residual income model, reflecting a modest upside potential [2][11] Market Conditions - **Investor Sentiment**: Market has priced in a downcycle scenario amid macro uncertainties, with the stock trading at trough multiples [3][11] - **Tariff Impact**: Limited direct impact from tariffs as most supplies are from non-US origin; US customers contribute a low to mid single-digit percentage of revenue [5][10] - **Pricing Trends**: Management expects a weaker pricing trend in 2H25 due to demand pull-in in 1H25 [3][6] Future Outlook - **2Q25 and 2025 Outlook**: Management remains positive on overall pricing trends, with expectations of a ~10% QoQ increase in eMMC/UFS and 3-8% for SSDs [6][12] - **Drivers for Growth**: Domestic AI capex growth and supply discipline are expected to support market growth [6][10] - **Cautious Approach**: Analysts remain cautious about 2H25 pricing forecasts due to uncertainties in demand outlook [17] Business Strategy - **Diversification Plans**: Longsys plans to leverage its Brazil-located Zilia fab to mitigate tariff risks [5][12] - **New Business Expansion**: Enterprise business grew 200% YoY in 1Q25, indicating strong execution and synergies across segments [12][14] - **Customer Commitments**: Tier 1 customers are willing to commit to large orders under TCM and PTM models, which could stabilize growth [12][17] Earnings Revisions - **Revised EPS Estimates**: 2025-2027 EPS revised down by 38%, 17%, and 15% respectively due to cautious outlook on memory cycle [15][23] - **Gross Margin Adjustments**: SSD segment gross margin assumptions revised down as the company prioritizes market share over profitability [15][23] Additional Insights - **Supply Discipline**: Supply discipline may last longer amid macro uncertainties, with healthy inventory levels among domestic customers [17] - **Long-term Growth Potential**: Longsys' self-help strategies, including overseas expansion and new business models, are expected to enhance mid/long-term growth and margin profiles [11][17] Conclusion Shenzhen Longsys Electronics Co Ltd is navigating a challenging market environment with cautious optimism. While facing pricing pressures and macro uncertainties, the company is focusing on diversification, customer commitments, and strategic growth initiatives to enhance its long-term prospects.

Summary of WuXi AppTec Co Ltd Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: WuXi AppTec Co Ltd - **Industry**: Healthcare, specifically in pharmaceutical services - **Market Cap**: Rmb167,000 million - **Stock Rating**: Overweight - **Price Target**: HK$85.00, representing a 46% upside from the current price of HK$58.20 as of April 28, 2025 [11][11][11] Key Points Financial Performance - **1Q2025 Results**: Revenue and adjusted non-IFRS net profit increased by 21% and 40% year-over-year, respectively, exceeding estimates [14][14][14] - **2025 Guidance**: Revenue growth from continuing operations is projected at 10-15% year-over-year, translating to Rmb41.5-43.0 billion [14][14][14] - **Projected Revenue Growth**: Revenue is expected to increase by over 60% in 2025 [3][3][3] Capital Expenditure and Capacity - **Capex Increase**: Capital expenditure is expected to rise to Rmb7.0-8.0 billion in 2025, following a pull-back in 2023-2024 [3][3][3] - **Focus Areas**: Approximately 70% of capex will be allocated to development and manufacturing projects in Taixing (China), Singapore, and Delaware (US) [3][3][3] - **Capacity Expansion**: Both backlog and capacity are projected to more than double in 2025 [3][3][3] Market Dynamics - **Geopolitical Impact**: 60% of WuXi AppTec's revenue comes from US customers, but only 10% is directly shipped to the US. The company is sensitive to geopolitical tensions and tariffs, with a current incremental tariff of 20% on pharmaceuticals [4][4][4] - **Valuation Drivers**: Easing geopolitical tensions and tariff rates are crucial for improving valuation [4][4][4] Operational Insights - **Business Segments**: The TIDES (peptides and oligonucleotides) business is a significant driver of expansion [3][3][3] - **Capacity Metrics**: Solid-phase peptide synthesis manufacturing capacity is projected to exceed 100,000 liters by 2025 [8][8][8] Risks and Considerations - **Potential Upside Risks**: Favorable government policies and an inflection in Fed rates could lead to increased biotech funding and margin expansion [20][20][20] - **Downside Risks**: Risks include talent turnover, margin pressure from US business, global competition, and geopolitical risks [20][20][20] Conclusion WuXi AppTec Co Ltd is positioned for significant growth in 2025, driven by increased capital expenditure, capacity expansion, and strong revenue growth. However, the company faces challenges from geopolitical tensions and market dynamics that could impact its valuation and operational performance.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **oil industry**, focusing on crude oil prices, production forecasts, and demand trends. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Crude Oil Prices**: Crude prices have decreased due to a lack of trade deals and concerns over potential OPEC+ production increases in June, with a meeting scheduled for May 5th [1] 2. **Oil Demand Resilience**: Global trackable oil demand remains stable, matching levels from a year ago, indicating resilience in demand despite economic uncertainties [2][9] 3. **Refinery Margins**: Net refinery margins have strengthened, with Singapore margins reaching a 14-month high, although a decline is expected as the maintenance season ends [2][47] 4. **China's Support for Oil Demand**: Chinese officials are expected to provide support for industries affected by tariffs, which may include tariff waivers on certain US imports, positively impacting oil demand [3] 5. **US Oil Production Trends**: Smaller Permian producers have downgraded their capital expenditure guidance, and the Permian rig count has decreased by 5% year-to-date [3] 6. **Russia's Production Recovery**: Russia's oil production is recovering, which may exert downward pressure on prices, as indicated by a recent increase in exports [4] 7. **Supply Dynamics**: Trackable net supply decreased by 0.2 million barrels per day (mb/d) due to seasonal declines in Canadian production [5][15] 8. **OECD Commercial Stocks**: OECD commercial stocks remain 71 million barrels (mb) below the previous year's levels, with global visible inventories down by 7 mb last week [16] 9. **Managed Money Positioning**: Oil net managed money positioning decreased by 29 mb last week, remaining at its 2nd percentile, suggesting potential for recovery [16][59] Additional Important Insights 1. **Iran's Production Resilience**: Iran's crude production nowcast remains strong at 3.5 mb/d, slightly above previous expectations [16] 2. **Brent Timespreads**: The gap between Brent implied volatility and fair value estimates has narrowed by 5 percentage points (pp), indicating changing market perceptions [51] 3. **Geopolitical Risks**: The geopolitical risk index has increased, which may affect market volatility and oil prices [53] 4. **China's Oil Demand Nowcast**: China's oil demand nowcast stands at 16.8 mb/d, aligning with April expectations, indicating stable demand from this key market [27] 5. **US Lower 48 Production**: The US Lower 48 crude production nowcast remains at 11.3 mb/d, slightly below March expectations, with a recent increase in the oil rig count [18] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current state and future outlook of the oil industry.

Summary of Sungrow Power Supply (300274.SZ) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Sungrow Power Supply - **Ticker**: 300274.SZ - **Market Cap**: Rmb121,946 million (approximately US$16,733 million) [11] Key Financial Highlights - **2024 Net Profit**: Rmb11,036 million, up 16.9% year-over-year, aligning with consensus estimates [2] - **1Q25 Net Profit**: Rmb3,826 million, a significant increase of 82.5% year-over-year, driven by: - Inverter shipment volumes increased by 19% year-over-year to 34GW - Energy-storage system (ESS) shipments surged to 12GWh, a 4.7x increase year-over-year [2] - **Gross Profit Margin**: Increased by 2.8 percentage points year-over-year to 29.9% in 2024 [2] Shipment and Revenue Projections - **Inverter Shipment Target for 2025**: Expected to rise by 10-20% year-over-year, with an assumption of 162GW [3] - **ESS Shipment Target for 2025**: Initially projected at 40-50GWh, now revised down to 35GWh (+25% year-over-year) due to anticipated tariff increases [3] Market and Tariff Impact - **US Market Importance**: Accounts for 10-20% of revenue, but is crucial for higher margins [1] - **Tariff Impact**: ESS shipments to the US have been suspended due to tariffs exceeding 100%, while inverter shipments remain unaffected as they are produced in Thailand [4] - **Mitigation Strategies**: The company is focusing on cost control and exploring sales in non-US markets to offset tariff impacts [4] Regulatory Environment - **PRC Government Policy No.136**: Introduced on February 9, 2025, adds uncertainty to ESS demand, with a rush in renewable capacity installations expected before June 1, followed by a sharp decline [5] Valuation and Recommendations - **Target Price**: Increased by 10.4% to Rmb53/share [1] - **Current Valuation Metrics**: - Price-to-Earnings Ratio (PER): 12.4x for 2025E - Price-to-Book Ratio (PB): 2.7x - Dividend Yield: 1.7% [1][7] - **Analyst Rating**: Cautious outlook with a "Sell" rating due to uncertainties despite the earnings beat [1] Additional Insights - **Future Earnings Projections**: Net profits are expected to increase by 12% for 2025E and 9% for 2026E [1] - **Overall Market Sentiment**: Despite strong performance in 1Q25, the company faces significant uncertainties that could impact future profitability and growth [1][14]

April 2025 Life Science Tools & Diagnostics Clinical CRO Survey 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuinu9870 Assessing Current CRO Market Trends Across Large Pharma and SMID Biotech Customers 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 North America Equity Research Life Science Tools & Diagno ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 China Longyuan Power (916 HK/001289 CH) H/A: Buy/Buy: Signs of weakness but value remains China 1Q25 results were weak: Longyuan reported net profit for 1Q25 at RMB1,902m (-22% y-o-y) under PRC GAAP, and profit from continuing operation was (-16% q-o-q), lower than consensus and our estimates. Results were weak due to 1) seasonal weakness in wind resources and grid curtailments, 2) higher staff costs and D&A, which were in-line with increase in wind and solar capacity (+20% YoY ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 April 28, 2025 10:12 AM GMT CGN Power Co., Ltd | Asia Pacific M Update Takeaways from 1Q25 Conference Call Key Takeaways Market tariff: The overall market tariff for CGN was Rmb0.36/kwh, down 3.46 cents YoY. In 1Q25, Guangdong had 36.5% market volume, up 8.7 ppts; the larger- than-expected power tariff decline was mainly due to spot market trading, according to management. In 1Q24, CGN had net spot market power procurement of ~400 mn kwh and reached a margin of over 10 cents/kwh ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 30 April 2025 | 11:40AM HKT China: April PMIs – weaker manufacturing PMIs on heightened US tariffs Bottom line: Due to the negative impact of significantly higher US tariffs, the NBS manufacturing PMI fell to 49.0 in April from 50.5 in March, much lower than consensus expectations. The Caixin manufacturing PMI fell to 50.4 in April from 51.2 in March. The NBS non-manufacturing PMI decreased to 50.4 in April from 50.8 in March, moderately below market expectations and driven by w ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 China Building Products 1Q25 wrap: Selective growth recovery and margin stabilization; Buy Honglu/Kinlong Following 1Q25 results for China building products names, we highlight key takeaways from the period for six stocks across five sectors (steel structure, glass, construction hardware, ceramic tile, and anti-seismic): Research | Equity Vicky Li +86(21)2401-8926 | vicky.li@goldmansachs.cn Goldman Sachs (China) Securities Company Limited Yi Wang, CFA +86(21)2401-8930 | yi.wang@ ...