Summary of the Conference Call on Nonferrous Metals & Mining (Aluminum) in Japan Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the aluminum industry in Japan, specifically discussing the production and shipment statistics for January 2025 released by the Japan Aluminium Association [1][2]. Key Points Production and Shipment Statistics - In January 2025, production of aluminum rolled products was 124,000 tons, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 5.2% but a month-over-month decrease of 9.6% [2]. - Shipments of aluminum rolled products totaled 129,000 tons, which is up 2.8% year-over-year but down 6.2% month-over-month [2]. - Shipments of flat products were 80,000 tons (+2.1% YoY), extruded products were 50,000 tons (+3.8% YoY), and foil shipments were 7,100 tons (-3.7% YoY) [2]. Cumulative Production and Shipments - From April 2024 to January 2025, cumulative production of aluminum rolled products was 1,390,000 tons, showing a slight decrease of 0.1% YoY, while shipments were 1,398,000 tons, down 0.4% YoY [2]. End Use Shipments - Shipments of sheet for cans were 30,900 tons, marking a significant increase of 13.6% YoY, driven by strong demand for drink cans [3]. - Automotive sheet shipments decreased to 16,100 tons, down 2.0% YoY, coinciding with a 7.4% YoY decline in domestic auto production in December 2024 [3]. - Shipments for other applications, primarily SPE plates, increased by 6.2% YoY to 5,400 tons [3]. - Shipments of extruded products for construction were 27,000 tons (+3.6% YoY), while housing starts fell by 2.5% YoY to 62,957 units in December [3]. Foil Shipments - Foil shipments for electrical machinery and equipment were 3,700 tons (-3.6% YoY), while shipments for capacitors increased by 7.2% YoY, and shipments for lithium batteries decreased by 11.8% YoY [4]. Market Outlook - The overall industry view is considered "In-Line" by Morgan Stanley, indicating that the performance of the aluminum sector is expected to align with broader market trends [5]. Additional Insights - The report highlights the first positive year-over-year reading for extruded materials in six months, suggesting a potential recovery in this segment [7]. - The data indicates a mixed performance across different applications, with strong demand in the beverage can sector contrasting with declines in automotive-related shipments [3][7]. Conclusion - The aluminum industry in Japan is experiencing a complex landscape with varying demand across different sectors. While there are positive signs in certain areas, challenges remain, particularly in automotive production and some foil applications. The overall outlook remains cautiously optimistic as the industry adapts to changing market conditions.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - The report covers multiple themes including global trade, artificial intelligence (AI), UK consumer sentiment, urbanization in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), power policy, automation in China, and the Indian automotive sector [2][5][6]. Core Insights and Arguments Trade and Tariffs - The impact of US tariffs on China is analyzed, drawing parallels with Japan's past experiences. It suggests that tariffs could lead to a shift in China's trade focus towards emerging markets and increased domestic consumption [7][9]. - A 10% tariff on Chinese imports could reduce China's GDP growth by 0.3 percentage points, while similar tariffs on EU goods could impact eurozone growth [14]. - The report indicates that elevated trade risks might prompt China to implement stronger property stabilization measures and fiscal easing [8]. Artificial Intelligence (AI) in Government - AI has the potential to improve efficiency in public services, potentially saving governments 2-3% in spending, although the overall impact may be limited due to high fixed costs in areas like debt service and pensions [17][18]. - The report suggests that while AI can streamline administrative tasks, the expected productivity gains may be closer to 0.5% per year rather than the higher estimates of 1-1.5% [17]. UK Consumer Sentiment - A survey of 2,000 UK consumers reveals heightened concerns about the cost of living, with nearly half expecting a decline in real incomes. ESG considerations have also diminished due to economic pressures [23][24]. - Consumer spending priorities are shifting, with a noted decline in loyalty to grocery brands and a cautious approach to holiday spending [24]. Urbanization in the Gulf - The GCC is experiencing rapid urbanization, with smart city development becoming a key focus for national strategies aimed at diversifying economies away from oil dependency [26][28]. - Major cities like Dubai and Abu Dhabi are investing heavily in sustainable infrastructure, with Dubai aiming to double its population by 2040 [28]. Power Policy - The UK is expected to make significant decisions regarding its energy policy in 2025, with a GBP 40 billion Clean Power 2030 Action Plan in place. Key events include renewables auctions and decisions on biomass and nuclear energy [32][33]. Automation in China - The forecast for China's factory automation market growth has been lowered to 0% for 2025 due to trade tensions, with a weak export outlook expected to dampen demand [37]. - Process automation is viewed as more resilient compared to factory automation, particularly in sectors like oil and gas that are less reliant on exports [38]. Indian Automotive Sector - The Indian automotive market is projected to see slight growth in passenger vehicle demand, with a potential recovery in commercial vehicles expected later in 2025 [44][45]. - Recent tax benefits are anticipated to boost demand for two-wheelers and entry-level passenger vehicles [45]. Other Important Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring trade policies and their implications for global economic relations, particularly between the US and China [9][14]. - The potential for AI to transform public sector efficiency is highlighted, but the report cautions against overestimating the immediate financial benefits [17][18]. - The evolving landscape of consumer behavior in the UK reflects broader economic uncertainties, which could impact retail strategies [23][24]. - The GCC's urbanization efforts are positioned as a critical component of long-term economic growth and diversification strategies [26][28].

28 February 2025 | 2:13AM HKT Kingsoft Office (688111.SS): DeepSeek-R1 model available on WPS AI; 4Q24 NI beat at 43% YoY; Buy Kingsoft Office (KO) reported 4Q24 preliminary results (link) with revenues growth at 16% YoY in 4Q24, improving from 3Q24 +11% YoY, while 6% lower than our estimates, due to muted enterprise spending and limited revenues contribution from WPS AI. 4Q24 net income was better than expected at Rmb605m, or 9%/ 53% beats vs. our/ Bloomberg consensus estimates, and we attribute this to im ...

Summary of Humanoid Robots Industry Research Industry Overview - The humanoid robot market is projected to grow from **USD 900 million in 2025** to **USD 73 billion in 2034**, reflecting a **CAGR of 63%** [3][15] - The average cost of humanoid robots is expected to decline from approximately **USD 58,000 per unit** to **USD 20,000 by 2032**, indicating an **11% annual decline** from 2025 to 2034 [3][15] Key Innovations - Figure AI's "Helix" Vision-Language-Action (VLA) model significantly enhances training efficiency, requiring only **500 hours of supervised data** to learn multiple tasks, compared to traditional methods that need **500 hours per task** [2][11] - The Helix model integrates decision-making and robot action, allowing humanoids to learn new tasks faster and more efficiently [2][11] Market Dynamics - The humanoid robot supply chain is still evolving, with most companies currently delivering samples or small batch productions [4][8] - Major components of humanoid robots include: - **Hardware components** (55% of Bill of Materials) - **Sensors** (17% of BOM) - **AI Chips/software** (13% of BOM) [4][8] Supplier Landscape - Several Chinese companies are identified as suppliers for leading humanoid players like Figure AI, Unitree, and Tesla [4][16][17] - Key suppliers include: - **Xusheng Group**: Magnesium alloy shell - **Everwin Precision**: Joint, bearing, sensor - **Zhaowei Machinery & Electronics**: Coreless motor [16][17] Historical Cost Trends - Historical data shows that industrial robot costs decreased by approximately **7% annually** from 2006 to 2017, while Tesla's production costs per vehicle declined by **10% annually** from 2017 to 2024 [3][12] Competitive Landscape - Key humanoid robot players include: - **Tesla**: Optimus (prototype launched in September 2022) - **Figure AI**: Helix model - **Boston Dynamics**: Atlas - **Agility Robotics**: Digit [24][26] Future Projections - The humanoid robot market is expected to see various scenarios: - **Bear case**: Market size reaching **USD 30.7 billion** by 2034 - **Base case**: Market size reaching **USD 73.1 billion** by 2034 - **Bull case**: Market size reaching **USD 380.7 billion** by 2034 [15] Conclusion - The humanoid robot industry is on the brink of significant growth, driven by technological advancements in training methods and cost reductions. The evolving supply chain and competitive landscape will play crucial roles in shaping the future of this market.

Summary of Kingsoft Office Software Inc. (688111.CH) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Kingsoft Office Software Inc. (688111.CH) - **Industry**: Software Technology - **Rating**: Outperform - **Price Target**: CNY 290.00 - **Current Price**: CNY 352.50 - **Market Cap**: CNY 163,040 million Key Financial Highlights - **FY24 Revenue**: CNY 5,121 million, representing a 12.4% increase year-over-year - **4Q24 Revenue**: CNY 1,494 million, up 16.2% YoY - **4Q24 Operating Profit**: CNY 647.7 million, a 44% increase YoY - **4Q24 Net Profit**: CNY 605.1 million, a 42% increase YoY - **Individual Subscription Growth**: +23% - **Enterprise Subscription Growth**: +9% Core Insights - **Revenue Deceleration**: The company is believed to have reached a bottom in revenue deceleration due to the transition to a SaaS model and macroeconomic factors, setting the stage for potential stock price catalysts driven by AI advancements [3][2] - **SaaS Transformation**: The shift to a SaaS approach has led to improved upselling opportunities, particularly with higher-value AI modules, contributing to the growth in both individual and enterprise subscriptions [2][3] - **AI Monetization Potential**: Kingsoft Office is optimistic about its ability to monetize AI features, which are expected to enhance productivity through personalization and customization [3][2] Financial Projections - **Revenue Forecasts**: - FY25 Revenue projected at CNY 6,068 million, indicating a CAGR of 15.4% from FY23 to FY25 - Adjusted EPS expected to grow from CNY 3.26 in FY24 to CNY 3.67 in FY25 - **Valuation Metrics**: - Adjusted P/E ratio expected to decrease from 115.7x in FY24 to 102.8x in FY25 - Gross Margin projected to decline slightly from 84.0% in FY24 to 83.0% in FY25 [7][21] Risks and Challenges - **Government Policies**: Potential risks include changes in government digitalization policies that could impact the office license business and delay purchasing activities [22] - **Market Competition**: Increased competition from internet giants could pose a threat if they develop similar products and invest heavily in R&D [22] - **Economic Conditions**: Weaker macroeconomic conditions may continue to affect end-user spending and ARPU growth in the office subscription business [22] Investment Implications - **Recommendation**: The stock is recommended for accumulation on pullbacks, with a focus on the potential for revenue acceleration and AI product catalysts [3][15] - **Price Target**: The price target of CNY 290.00 suggests an 18% downside from the current price of CNY 352.50, indicating a cautious but optimistic outlook [4][15] Additional Insights - **Performance Metrics**: The stock has shown strong performance with a 93.5% increase over the last 6 months and a 30.1% increase over the last 12 months [4] - **Individual Subscription Revenue Growth**: Individual subscription revenue growth is expected to reaccelerate, with projections indicating a YoY growth of 22.9% in 4Q24E [10][12] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call regarding Kingsoft Office Software Inc., highlighting its financial performance, strategic insights, risks, and investment recommendations.

Summary of Kingboard Laminates Holdings (1888.HK) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Kingboard Laminates Holdings (1888.HK) - **Date of Report**: 28 February 2025 Key Points Financial Performance - Kingboard Laminates Holdings (KBL) announced a positive profit alert for 2024, estimating a net profit increase of over 43% year-on-year to more than HK$1.3 billion, which is below the forecast of HK$1.648 billion [1][3] - The discrepancy in profit expectations is attributed to: 1. One-off provision on re-valuation of property investment portfolio and property bonds due to a subdued property market 2. Lower-than-expected gross margin (GM) in 4Q24 due to increased bulk purchase discounts across the industry [1][3] Market Reaction - Following the profit alert, KBL's stock declined by 6%, although it had previously gained over 25% in the week leading up to the announcement [1] - The current stock price is HK$9.22, with a target price set at HK$11.50, indicating an expected share price return of 24.7% and a total expected return of 28.3% [4] Industry Context - The lower GM in 4Q24 is viewed as an industry-wide issue rather than company-specific, as KBL's competitor, Shengyi Technology, also reported a profit alert that missed expectations [3] - KBL's GM is projected to improve from approximately 19% in 2024 to around 23% in 2025, still below the mid-cycle average of 25% [3] Shipment Trends - Monthly shipments showed a persistent uptick in the second half of 2024 compared to the first half, with an average monthly shipment increase of 12.1% [6] Valuation and Risks - The target price of HK$11.50 is based on a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of approximately 15x for 2025, reflecting a cautious approach due to slower-than-expected macro consumption in China [8] - Key risks affecting the stock's performance include: 1. Variability in China's macroeconomic growth 2. Changes in government stimulus measures 3. Fluctuations in demand for electronic goods [9] Conclusion - Despite the short-term stock weakness, the overall outlook for KBL remains positive, with expectations of a margin upcycle continuing into 2025, presenting potential buying opportunities for investors [1][3]

V i e w p o i n t | Adrienne Lui AC +852-2501-2753 adrienne.lui@citi.com See Appendix A-1 for Analyst Certification, Important Disclosures and Research Analyst Affiliations. Citi Research is a division of Citigroup Global Markets Inc. (the "Firm"), which does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as onl ...

Please add me to your distribution list. | M | Dominic J Krummenacher Strategist Dominic.Krummenacher@morganstanley.com | | | --- | --- | --- | | | | Global Idea | | February 28, 2025 12:03 PM GMT | | | | G10 FX Strategy | Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+ | | | Tariff Fatigue Setting In | | +44 20 7425-9781 | | | David S. Adams, CFA | | | | Strategist David.S.Adams@morganstanley.com | +44 20 7425-3518 | | Price action suggests to us G10 FX markets are starting to get | Wanting Low | | | | Strategist ...

Asia Pacific Equity Research 28 February 2025 J P M O R G A N Fund Manager Radar Playing defense Jason Steed AC (61-2) 9003-8609 jason.h.steed@jpmorgan.com Dylan Adrian (61-2) 9003-7397 dylan.adrian@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited Performance of Love Index movers | STOCK | Jan-25 REL | 3M REL | | --- | --- | --- | | POSITIVE MOVERS | | | | ASX | -7.0% | -5.0% | | BXB | -1.7% | 2.9% | | COH | 5.7% | 3.9% | | EVN | 13.9% | 11.5% | | MQG | 4.1% | 3.1% | | TLC | -2.3% | -3.6% | | WTC | -2. ...

In the week to 26 February, EM bond funds had inflows, while outflows from EM equity funds continued. EM hard-currency bond funds had moderate inflows for a second consecutive week, driven by flows into non-ETF/actively managed funds. Overall flows for EM bond funds were also positive as a result, given the broadly flat flows for EM local-currency bond funds. Meanwhile, outflows from EM equity funds continued, driven by Asia-focused funds. In the EM Weekly: Dealing with uncertainty, 28 February 2025, we hig ...