1 March 2025 | 6:05PM HKT China Battery and Components Strong March shipments seen (+15% mom); strengthens our cyclical recovery view. Buy CATL (on CL), Yuneng March battery shipments seen beating expectations. According to ICCSino, March 2025 will likely be a surprisingly strong month for China battery shipments, with a mom increase of +15% (Exhibit 1, vs. consensus of single digit). Given Jan-Feb are usually low seasons for battery shipments as a result of Chinese new year holidays, we view the potential ...

February 28, 2025 10:11 AM GMT M Update China Autos & Shared Mobility | Asia Pacific Likely a very "Humanoid" earnings season In the past quarter, 40% of the auto stocks we cover mentioned increasing involvement in humanoid business. As we head towards peak earnings, investors may focus increasingly on the remaining 60% of companies, who, although they have said nothing about humanoids, may soon do so. In addition to the preview note we published on major EV players, here are some quick thoughts about more ...

February 28, 2025 05:25 AM GMT Alternative Asset Mgrs | North America Investor Feedback On Latest Pullback Shares of alts asset mgrs are down -11% over the past 30-days on the back of disappointing 4Q earnings results, slower capital markets activity YTD and macro concerns. We share investor feedback & concerns around capital markets rebound, macro/ interest rates risks, and most & least preferred names. Key Takeaways: | M | | | | --- | --- | --- | | | | Update | | February 28, 2025 05:25 AM GMT | | | | Alt ...

28 February 2025 | 1:53AM PST Anna Wu +1(415)249-7235 | anna.wu@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Alex Lakritz +1(415)249-7072 | alex.lakritz@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC | | Mortgage | Credit | Personal | Auto | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Card | Loan | | | Total outstanding ($ in bn) | $12,436 | $1,142 | $148 | $1,675 | | % y/y change | 3.1% | 4.7% | 0.1% | 2.8% | | % m/m change | 1.1% | (0.1%) | 0.0% | 0.4% | | Monthly originations ($ in bn) | $126 | $40 | $10 | $63 | | % y/y change | 29.2% | (6 ...

28 February 2025 | 4:42PM CST Appotronics Corporation Ltd. (688007.SS): Data update post 2024 prelim results Appotronics reported 2024 prelim results, in-line with its previous announcement. Total revenue was Rmb2,418mn in 2024, growing by 9% yoy. Net profits was Rmb29mn, declining by 72% yoy, slightly lower than the mid-point of Rmb25mn-35mn in previous announcement. We fine-tune 2025E-26E earnings forecasts by -4% to factor in the latest prelim results. Our 12-month target price remains Rmb11, which is ba ...

Summary of Key Points from the Agency MBS Weekly Report Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) market and related investment products, including AAA Collateralized Loan Obligations (CLOs) and Agency CMO floaters. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Market Performance and Trends** - Mortgages have remained resilient amid recent market volatility, with production coupon OAS tightening to 30 basis points, aligning with the fair value target of 25 to 35 basis points [10][12][13]. - Large funds increased their MBS overweights by 0.3% to 12.5% in January, while underweights in Treasuries rose by 1.1% to 20.1% [3]. 2. **Investment Preferences** - Preference for 6.0% and 6.5% Agency floaters is reiterated due to their attractive pricing and excess returns across various rate scenarios [17][18][25]. - AAA CLOs have tightened to 117 basis points, nearing historic tights, while Agency CMO floaters are at historic wides, indicating a divergence in risk and return profiles [26][27][28]. 3. **Issuance and Demand Projections** - Projected net issuance for Agency MBS in 2025 is $225 billion, with gross issuance expected to reach $1.1 trillion [25]. - Demand is anticipated from banks ($100 billion), money managers ($150-200 billion), and foreign investors ($100 billion) [25]. 4. **Refinance and Prepayment Trends** - The Fannie Mae RALI Index reported a 0.5% week-over-week increase in refinance applications, with a 50.9% year-over-year rise [24]. - Freddie Mac noted a 9 basis point drop in 30-year fixed rates, averaging 6.76% [24]. 5. **Convexity and Hedging Needs** - Convexity hedging needs have increased, with a model suggesting that investors would need to shed/add $44-47 billion of 10-year Treasury equivalents if rates move by 50 basis points [13][14]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Comparative Analysis of Investment Products** - Agency floaters are viewed as more attractive than AAA CLOs from a historical perspective, despite the latter's minimal credit risk [33]. - The discount margins on new issue Agency CMO floaters have widened since 2021, indicating a potential opportunity for investors [28]. 2. **Market Sentiment and Expectations** - A poll indicated that approximately 65% of investors expect tighter spreads over the next month, reflecting a bullish sentiment [10]. - The Fed Funds futures market anticipates two rate cuts by the end of 2025, suggesting a lower cap risk for floaters [47]. 3. **Risks Associated with Floating Rate Investments** - Agency CMO floaters face cap risk, which can affect their pricing and returns, while AAA CLOs are subject to call and prepayment risks [44][51]. 4. **Performance Metrics** - Performance was mixed, with belly coupons outperforming while wings underperformed, highlighting the need for careful selection within the coupon stack [18]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and trends within the Agency MBS market as discussed in the report, providing a comprehensive overview for potential investors and stakeholders.

4Q beat with Brukinsa surpassing Calquence, FY25 guided revenue US$4.9-5.3bn: 4Q product sales of US$1.1bn (+77% y/y, +13% q/q, vs. GSe's US$1bn) were higher, mainly driven by strong Brukinsa sales in ex-China markets: 1) US sales rebounded (US$616mn, +22% q/q, vs. GSe US$552mn or VA Consensus Data US$536mn) after a slower 3Q, which was partially bolstered by US$30mn of early channel buy-in ahead of new year, 2) EU and rest-of-world (US$143mn, +20% q/q, vs. GSe US$136mn) continue to see strong ramp-up acros ...

February 28, 2025 12:16 PM GMT ASML Holding NV | Europe Notes from the ASML Roadshow On Thursday 27th February we hosted Jim Kavanagh, ASML's worldwide VP of Investor Relations for a roadshow in Edinburgh. The key points of interest from the day centred around the shifting dynamics amongst ASML's customer base, litho intensity going forward and the state of play in China. Key Takeaways Customer base in focus. The topic with the greatest interest amongst investors centred on ASML's customers, more specifical ...

28 February 2025 Asian FX Focus Currencies Doubling down on tariffs US President Trump said in a social media post on 27 February that there will be an additional 10% tariffs on all imports from mainland China from 4 March because of the unresolved fentanyl issue. This was rather unexpected, because, originally, the 4 March timeline was for the delayed 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada (as an earlier 10% tariff on China was already implemented on 4 February). Taken together with the "America First Trade Poli ...

28 February 2025 | 11:46PM SGT Asia-Pacific Strategy: CY4Q/2H24 earnings monitor Earnings disappointment continued 510 companies in the MXAPJ index (67% of MXAPJ cap) have reported results. Actual CY24 earnings are tracking at 97% of full-year estimates (Bloomberg consensus). CY4Q24 profits of the companies that have reported grew 11% versus the previous year and -17% versus the previous quarter, while CY2024 profits were +18% yoy. Excluding financials, CY4Q24 revenues were +16% yoy (+2% qoq) and net margin ...