24 February 2025 | 9:28PM BRT Pulp & Paper 2025 Global Pulp: 10 Key Themes to Watch Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs ...

23 Feb 2025 17:00:35 ET │ 307 pages China Healthcare Handbook 2025: Come Back and Catch Up CITI'S TAKE We believe that in 2025 investor interest will return to China's healthcare sector, keen to catch up with the latest developments. Although concerns might persist, investors will find it difficult to turn a blind eye to the significant improvements in domestic innovations that have global potential. Even the most risk-averse investors have stopped asking about GPOs; rather, they are looking for policy deta ...

Asia Pacific Equity Research 26 February 2025 This material is neither intended to be distributed to Mainland China investors nor to provide securities investment consultancy services within the territory of Mainland China. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. China Battery & Materials Year 2025 investment thesis; initiate on Hunan Yuneng at Overweight China Asia Autos & EV Battery Rebecca Wen AC (852) 2800-8505 rebecca.y ...

We believe further clarification is needed by Microsoft on its capex and broader capacity intentions to form a strong view on the implications. At this stage, we see this as 1/ Microsoft-specific given already very high ambitions and given the recent newflow vis-a- vis OpenAI and Stargate and 2/ rather fine-tuning of timing and exact mix of capacity additions rather than change of stance from growth to stable or down development. We put the above in context of MSFT accounting for 4% of global Data Centre ca ...

China (PRC) | Alternative Energy Solar: Module Price for Distributed PV Rebounds Slightly with Demand Pick-Up SIA reported P-/N-type poly quotes stayed at RMB34.0/41.7 per kg; M10/ G12 P-type/G10L/G12R/G12 N-type wafer prices were all flat WoW at RMB1.10/1.66/1.18/1.30/1.55 per pc. Per SolarZoom, M10/G12 PERC/ M10 TOPCon cell prices stayed at RMB0.285/0.29/0.295 per W. Mono M10, G12 PERC/Bi-facial M10, G12 PERC/M10 TOPCon modules stayed at RMB0.69/0.70/0.71 per W. Per SCI, 3.2/2.0mm SG prices were flat WoW ...

Soft new home sales but strong passenger turnover post-CNY holidays Passenger turnover during the 40-days Chinese New Year travelling peak season (CNY Chunyun, Jan 14 to Feb 22) in 2025 picked up by 7% from 2024 and was 15% higher than pre-Covid 2019 level. See more in pulse check on CNY holiday activities. On CNY comparable basis, we compare growth of high frequency activities during 1) 14 days before CNY holidays (Jan 14 to Jan 27), 2) 8-day CNY holidays (Jan 28 to Feb 4), and 3) 18 days after CNY holiday ...

Summary of the Chinese Internet Data Centre Sector Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the **Chinese Internet Data Centre (IDC) Sector** and its relationship with hyperscalers' capital expenditures (capex) [2][8]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Hyperscalers' Capex to IDC EBITDA Conversion**: - A simplified calculation indicates that incremental IDC EBITDA is at least **3%** of hyperscalers' total capex [2][4]. - For example, if a hyperscaler spends **Rmb100 billion** on capex, it could translate to **Rmb3 billion** in incremental IDC EBITDA [2][4]. 2. **Factors Affecting Calculations**: - Several factors can influence the final results, including: - A higher mix of CPU or domestic GPU servers may increase total MW [3]. - Data centers located in tier 1 cities may have higher IDC capex per MW and EBITDA [3]. - Data centers in remote areas may have lower IDC capex per MW [3]. 3. **Detailed Calculation Breakdown**: - The report provided a detailed breakdown of the calculation: - Total server capex: **Rmb100 billion** - Average selling price per server: **Rmb1 million** - Total number of servers: **100,000** - Average power density: **7.5 kW/unit** - Total server power: **750 MW** - Total IT power: **833 MW** - IDC capex per MW: **Rmb30 million** - IDC EBITDA yield: **12%** - Total incremental IDC EBITDA: **Rmb3 billion** [4]. 4. **Recognition Timeline**: - Incremental IDC EBITDA will be fully recognized in an average of **2 years** due to project delivery and utilization ramp-up time [4]. Risks and Opportunities 1. **Downside Risks**: - Weaker-than-expected demand for AI training. - Potential faults at data centers damaging reputation. - Higher-than-expected interest rates. - Less favorable regulatory environment [9]. 2. **Upside Risks**: - Stronger-than-expected growth in AI and cloud business. - Lower-than-expected electricity costs. - Lower-than-expected interest rates. - Tighter control on license granting and Power Usage Effectiveness (PUE) requirements [9]. Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the complexity of converting hyperscalers' capex into IDC orders and EBITDA due to various assumptions involved [2]. - The analysis is based on estimates from UBS and highlights the potential for growth in the IDC sector driven by AI and cloud computing demands [2][9]. Conclusion - The Chinese IDC sector presents significant investment opportunities, particularly in relation to hyperscalers' capital expenditures, but also carries inherent risks that investors should consider.

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research 24 February 2025 Memory Market Update AI memory expert fireside chat – key takeaways from Korea Conference 2025 We hosted an AI memory fireside chat session on 'HBM industry dynamics' with OMDIA (a third-party research vendor) at our Korea conference and share our key takeaways. OMDIA's overall comments on the HBM demand outlook, pricing and tech cadence were consistent with our findings (SKH ahead of SEC/MU) and we found their observations on tight clean room ca ...

24 February 2025 Asia Quantitative Strategy China Quant Strategy: The rally has more legs Rupal Agarwal +65 6230 2358 rupal.agarwal@bernsteinsg.com In all recent conversations with GEM/Asian fund managers, there have been 2 pertinent questions- When would India market start recovering and does China rally have legs? We re-iterated our near-term cautious view on India recently - India Quant Strategy: Is it time to add more risk?. In this report we address the China question. We turned positive on China in Se ...

Summary of Global Semiconductor Capital Equipment Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the Global Semiconductor Capital Equipment industry, particularly the outlook for wafer fabrication equipment (WFE) spending in 2025 and 2026, with specific emphasis on NAND and DRAM segments [2][22]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **WFE Spending Forecasts**: - The WFE forecast for 2025 has been increased to $108 billion, remaining flat year-over-year, while the 2026 forecast is slightly reduced to $115 billion, reflecting an 8% year-over-year growth [2][22]. - The 2024 WFE number is confirmed at $108 billion, indicating a 10% year-over-year growth, driven by strong spending in China [2][22]. 2. **Regional Insights**: - China’s WFE spending is projected to decline by 20% in 2025, while non-China regions are expected to see a 15% increase [2][22]. - The forecast for China’s WFE has been slightly adjusted upwards by $0.9 billion for 2025 due to positive signs of accelerating capital expenditures in logic [36][34]. 3. **NAND and DRAM Segments**: - NAND spending is expected to grow by 43% year-over-year in 2025, driven by increased demand for upgrades and investments from YMTC, although it remains below the peak of $20 billion seen in 2021/22 [2][30]. - DRAM spending is forecasted to increase by 13% year-over-year, reflecting higher capital expenditures from Micron, despite a decline in China [2][30]. 4. **Company-Specific Insights**: - **Lam Research (LRCX)**: Target price raised to $105 due to higher earnings expectations and a favorable outlook on NAND upgrades [3][38]. - **Applied Materials (AMAT)**: Target price maintained at $210, with a positive view on secular WFE growth and capital return strategies [17][38]. - **Tokyo Electron (TEL)**: Rated Outperform with a target price of ¥34,600, expected to gain market share and expand margins despite weaker contributions from China [4][11]. - **Advantest**: Target price set at ¥12,400, benefiting from AI testing demand and expected to increase average selling prices and margins [10][58]. - **DISCO**: Target price set at ¥55,200, dominant in the grinder and dicer market with a significant market share [9][58]. 5. **Market Dynamics**: - The semiconductor capital equipment market is experiencing a shift with local Chinese suppliers gaining market share due to domestic substitution [6][18][19]. - The overall sentiment indicates a cautious optimism regarding the recovery of NAND investments and the potential for growth in 2026 as the market normalizes [4][58]. Other Important Insights - The conference highlighted the importance of monitoring the impact of geopolitical factors on the semiconductor supply chain, particularly concerning China’s role in the global market [36][37]. - The discussion also pointed out the competitive landscape among major players, with companies like ASML and Lam Research positioned favorably due to their technological advancements and market strategies [5][16][38]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and forecasts discussed during the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the semiconductor capital equipment industry.