28 February 2025 | 4:42PM CST Appotronics Corporation Ltd. (688007.SS): Data update post 2024 prelim results Appotronics reported 2024 prelim results, in-line with its previous announcement. Total revenue was Rmb2,418mn in 2024, growing by 9% yoy. Net profits was Rmb29mn, declining by 72% yoy, slightly lower than the mid-point of Rmb25mn-35mn in previous announcement. We fine-tune 2025E-26E earnings forecasts by -4% to factor in the latest prelim results. Our 12-month target price remains Rmb11, which is ba ...

Summary of Key Points from the Agency MBS Weekly Report Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) market and related investment products, including AAA Collateralized Loan Obligations (CLOs) and Agency CMO floaters. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Market Performance and Trends** - Mortgages have remained resilient amid recent market volatility, with production coupon OAS tightening to 30 basis points, aligning with the fair value target of 25 to 35 basis points [10][12][13]. - Large funds increased their MBS overweights by 0.3% to 12.5% in January, while underweights in Treasuries rose by 1.1% to 20.1% [3]. 2. **Investment Preferences** - Preference for 6.0% and 6.5% Agency floaters is reiterated due to their attractive pricing and excess returns across various rate scenarios [17][18][25]. - AAA CLOs have tightened to 117 basis points, nearing historic tights, while Agency CMO floaters are at historic wides, indicating a divergence in risk and return profiles [26][27][28]. 3. **Issuance and Demand Projections** - Projected net issuance for Agency MBS in 2025 is $225 billion, with gross issuance expected to reach $1.1 trillion [25]. - Demand is anticipated from banks ($100 billion), money managers ($150-200 billion), and foreign investors ($100 billion) [25]. 4. **Refinance and Prepayment Trends** - The Fannie Mae RALI Index reported a 0.5% week-over-week increase in refinance applications, with a 50.9% year-over-year rise [24]. - Freddie Mac noted a 9 basis point drop in 30-year fixed rates, averaging 6.76% [24]. 5. **Convexity and Hedging Needs** - Convexity hedging needs have increased, with a model suggesting that investors would need to shed/add $44-47 billion of 10-year Treasury equivalents if rates move by 50 basis points [13][14]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Comparative Analysis of Investment Products** - Agency floaters are viewed as more attractive than AAA CLOs from a historical perspective, despite the latter's minimal credit risk [33]. - The discount margins on new issue Agency CMO floaters have widened since 2021, indicating a potential opportunity for investors [28]. 2. **Market Sentiment and Expectations** - A poll indicated that approximately 65% of investors expect tighter spreads over the next month, reflecting a bullish sentiment [10]. - The Fed Funds futures market anticipates two rate cuts by the end of 2025, suggesting a lower cap risk for floaters [47]. 3. **Risks Associated with Floating Rate Investments** - Agency CMO floaters face cap risk, which can affect their pricing and returns, while AAA CLOs are subject to call and prepayment risks [44][51]. 4. **Performance Metrics** - Performance was mixed, with belly coupons outperforming while wings underperformed, highlighting the need for careful selection within the coupon stack [18]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and trends within the Agency MBS market as discussed in the report, providing a comprehensive overview for potential investors and stakeholders.

4Q beat with Brukinsa surpassing Calquence, FY25 guided revenue US$4.9-5.3bn: 4Q product sales of US$1.1bn (+77% y/y, +13% q/q, vs. GSe's US$1bn) were higher, mainly driven by strong Brukinsa sales in ex-China markets: 1) US sales rebounded (US$616mn, +22% q/q, vs. GSe US$552mn or VA Consensus Data US$536mn) after a slower 3Q, which was partially bolstered by US$30mn of early channel buy-in ahead of new year, 2) EU and rest-of-world (US$143mn, +20% q/q, vs. GSe US$136mn) continue to see strong ramp-up acros ...

February 28, 2025 12:16 PM GMT ASML Holding NV | Europe Notes from the ASML Roadshow On Thursday 27th February we hosted Jim Kavanagh, ASML's worldwide VP of Investor Relations for a roadshow in Edinburgh. The key points of interest from the day centred around the shifting dynamics amongst ASML's customer base, litho intensity going forward and the state of play in China. Key Takeaways Customer base in focus. The topic with the greatest interest amongst investors centred on ASML's customers, more specifical ...

28 February 2025 Asian FX Focus Currencies Doubling down on tariffs US President Trump said in a social media post on 27 February that there will be an additional 10% tariffs on all imports from mainland China from 4 March because of the unresolved fentanyl issue. This was rather unexpected, because, originally, the 4 March timeline was for the delayed 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada (as an earlier 10% tariff on China was already implemented on 4 February). Taken together with the "America First Trade Poli ...

28 February 2025 | 11:46PM SGT Asia-Pacific Strategy: CY4Q/2H24 earnings monitor Earnings disappointment continued 510 companies in the MXAPJ index (67% of MXAPJ cap) have reported results. Actual CY24 earnings are tracking at 97% of full-year estimates (Bloomberg consensus). CY4Q24 profits of the companies that have reported grew 11% versus the previous year and -17% versus the previous quarter, while CY2024 profits were +18% yoy. Excluding financials, CY4Q24 revenues were +16% yoy (+2% qoq) and net margin ...

Summary of Conference Call Company and Industry - **Company**: SoundHound - **Industry**: Voice AI and Conversational AI technology Key Points and Arguments 1. **Record Revenue Growth**: In Q4 2024, SoundHound reported revenue of $35 million, marking an increase of over 100% year-over-year, achieving the top end of their revenue guidance for the year [1] 2. **Three-Pillar Business Strategy**: SoundHound's strategy includes a voice commerce ecosystem, AI customer service, and voice assistant technology, which is expected to enhance business momentum [2][3] 3. **Strong Automotive Pipeline**: The company is engaged in numerous RFPs and POCs with major automotive brands, including four EV brands like Lucid and TOG [3] 4. **Healthcare Sector Wins**: SoundHound secured contracts with notable healthcare providers such as Duke Health and Wellstar Health System, indicating strong repeat business in this sector [3] 5. **Expansion in Restaurants**: Partnerships with major QSRs like Burger King and Whataburger highlight the growing adoption of AI customer service in the restaurant industry [3] 6. **Diverse Customer Base**: The company is expanding its reach across various sectors, including retail, government, and military, with significant contracts signed [4][5] 7. **Agentic AI Leadership**: SoundHound positions itself as a leader in enterprise conversational AI, emphasizing the importance of agentic AI in optimizing performance and achieving complex goals [4][5] 8. **CES Participation**: The company showcased its technologies at CES, generating significant interest and partnerships with industry leaders [5] 9. **Competitive Performance**: SoundHound's AI technology outperformed competitors like Google and OpenAI in accuracy and latency, reinforcing its competitive edge [6] 10. **Financial Performance**: Q4 revenue was $34.5 million, with a full-year revenue of $85 million, reflecting an 85% growth [7][8] 11. **Strong Backlog**: The company ended the year with a cumulative subscriptions and bookings backlog of nearly $1.2 billion, up over 75% year-over-year [8] 12. **Investment in R&D**: R&D expenses increased by 60% year-over-year, driven by acquisitions and a commitment to innovation [10] 13. **Path to Profitability**: SoundHound aims to achieve adjusted EBITDA profitability by the end of 2025, focusing on scale and high ROI investments [13] 14. **Market Opportunities**: The automotive sector presents a significant revenue opportunity with over 90 million light vehicles produced annually, while the restaurant sector has a serviceable market worth tens of billions [8][9] 15. **Integration of Acquisitions**: The company is actively integrating acquisitions to enhance its product offerings and streamline operations [11][12] Other Important Content 1. **Impact of Economic Conditions**: The company benefits from both economic growth and challenging conditions, as businesses seek AI solutions for innovation and cost-saving [26] 2. **Customer Engagement**: SoundHound is focusing on customer engagement and internal IT support use cases, leveraging its acquisitions to enhance service offerings [20][21] 3. **Long-Term Contracts**: The company is pursuing multi-year contracts in new verticals like energy, which are expected to provide stable revenue streams [19] 4. **Flexibility in Offerings**: SoundHound is open to partnerships for technologies that enhance its platform, ensuring comprehensive solutions for customers [29] 5. **POC to Revenue Timeline**: The transition from POCs to full contracts can vary, but existing relationships can lead to quick deployments [29]

Summary of Eli Lilly & Co Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Eli Lilly & Co (LLY) - **Industry**: US Biopharmaceuticals - **Rating**: Outperform - **Price Target**: $1,100.00 USD by February 25, 2025 - **Current Price**: $881.40 USD - **Market Cap**: $835.717 billion USD - **Dividend Yield**: 0.7% [4][31] Key Points and Arguments Pricing Strategy - Eli Lilly announced a price reduction for Zepbound starting doses (2.5mg and 5mg) to $349 and $499 per month, respectively, reflecting decreases of 12.5% and 9.1% [8] - The launch of the Zepbound Self Pay Journey Program will reduce prices for higher doses (7.5mg and 10mg) to $499 for the first fill and refills within 45 days [8][3] Market Dynamics - The FDA's resolution of the semaglutide shortage is expected to boost demand for Eli Lilly's products, particularly Mounjaro and Zepbound [2] - The prohibition of compounding semaglutide is anticipated to be a significant catalyst for Eli Lilly's market share growth [2] Growth Metrics - LillyDirect prescriptions are now included in IQVIA data, leading to a notable increase in weekly script numbers [2][9] - Eli Lilly's Tirzepatide products (Mounjaro and Zepbound) are adding approximately 1.3 million scripts every four weeks, outpacing Novo Nordisk's offerings [15] Market Share Insights - Eli Lilly holds a 53.7% market share in the GLP-1 category when including Trulicity, with Tirzepatide products capturing 48.8% of the market share in the latest week [16] - Mounjaro and Zepbound are showing accelerating growth in lower doses, indicating a strong uptake among new patients [15] Financial Projections - Adjusted EPS is projected to grow from $6.32 in FY23 to $22.77 in FY25, with a significant drop in adjusted P/E from 139.5x to 38.7x over the same period [7][31] - The stock is expected to outperform the market index by more than 15 percentage points [10] Additional Important Information - The report includes a detailed analysis of weekly TRx (total prescriptions) and NRx (new prescriptions) data for GLP-1 products, highlighting Eli Lilly's competitive position against Novo Nordisk [15][19] - Risks include potential pressures on the obesity total addressable market (TAM), manufacturing expansion challenges, and high-risk M&A activities [36][37] Conclusion Eli Lilly & Co is positioned for significant growth in the biopharmaceutical sector, particularly in the GLP-1 market, driven by strategic pricing, regulatory developments, and strong prescription growth metrics. The company's proactive approach to market access and pricing strategies is expected to enhance its competitive edge and financial performance in the coming years.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Autos & Shared Mobility - **Research Firm**: Morgan Stanley Asia Limited Core Insights 1. **Tesla's FSD Launch**: Tesla is preparing to roll out its Full Self-Driving (FSD) software in China, with customers who previously paid Rmb64k (US$8.8k) eligible for the release [1] 2. **Impact on L2+ NOA Adoption**: The anticipated launch of Tesla's FSD could accelerate the adoption of L2+ Navigate on Autopilot (NOA) features across China's New Energy Vehicles (NEVs), following BYD's recent mass adoption of Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) [1] 3. **Competitive Landscape**: Tesla's influence is shifting local players towards end-to-end neural networks for their AD solutions, indicating a potential increase in competition within the China smart EV ecosystem [1] 4. **Pricing Strategy**: It remains to be seen if Tesla will maintain the Rmb64k price for FSD, as many local competitors are offering NOA software for free [1] Regulatory and Operational Challenges 1. **Data Ownership and Computing Power**: Regulatory hurdles persist for Tesla regarding data training and transfer outside China for the FSD launch. The ownership of training data and access to necessary computing power will be critical amid ongoing geopolitical tensions [2] Additional Information - **Analyst Team**: The report includes insights from various analysts at Morgan Stanley, including Tim Hsiao, Adam Jonas, Cindy Huang, and others [3] - **Investment Banking Relationships**: Morgan Stanley has investment banking relationships with several companies in the automotive sector, which may influence their research objectivity [4][14][16] Stock Ratings Overview - The report includes stock ratings for various companies in the China automotive sector, indicating a mix of Overweight (O), Equal-weight (E), and Underweight (U) ratings for companies like BYD, NIO, and Geely [57][59] Conclusion - The anticipated launch of Tesla's FSD in China is expected to have significant implications for the adoption of autonomous driving technologies in the region, while regulatory challenges and competitive dynamics will play a crucial role in shaping the market landscape.

Summary of the Conference Call on Humanoid Robotics Industry Overview - The focus of the conference call was on the **humanoid robotics industry** in China, highlighting the progress and challenges faced by companies in this sector [1][3]. Key Takeaways - **Adoption and Development**: There is positive momentum in the development of new humanoid models, with many companies having developed products and shipped samples for testing. Leading domestic players like Agibot are scaling up orders to meet aggressive production goals for 2025 [3][7]. - **Sales Projections**: Leju expects to sell 500-1000 units in 2025, while MagicBot targets 400 units, scaling to 15,000 units by 2027 [3][7]. - **Technical Uncertainty**: The technical path for humanoid robotics remains uncertain, with various solutions being explored. However, convergence is expected within the next 2-3 years [9][10]. - **Cost Reduction Focus**: Cost reduction is a primary concern among manufacturers, with expectations of significant decreases in production costs through technology improvements and local sourcing [7][13]. Company Insights - **Local Supply Chain**: Chinese manufacturers are increasingly capable of producing humanoid robot components domestically, although high-end AI chips are still imported [10][11]. - **Component Manufacturers**: Key players in the supply chain include: - **Screws**: Hengli, Best Precision, XCC - **Reducers**: Shuanghuan, Leaderdrive, Guomao, Zhongda Leader - **Motors**: Inovance, Kinco - **Sensors**: Ampron, Orbbec, Keli Sensing [7][12]. Challenges and Opportunities - **Application Limitations**: Current humanoid robots are primarily used for simple tasks, and broader applications are limited by low success rates and the need for software advancements [8]. - **Market Dynamics**: The humanoid robotics market in China is expected to grow, with potential faster adoption in the US due to higher labor costs and advanced solutions [7][10]. - **Cost Projections**: Leju's production cost has decreased from RMB 700,000 in 2024 to RMB 400,000, with a target of RMB 200,000 by the end of 2025. Component prices are also expected to drop significantly as production scales up [13][24]. Technical Developments - **Actuator Preferences**: Linear actuators are not currently prevalent, but improvements in motion control technology may increase their application in the future [15]. - **Reducer Technology**: There is a distinction between harmonic and planetary reducers, with each having its advantages and disadvantages. Domestic manufacturers are gaining market share but still face challenges compared to foreign competitors [20][21]. Market Performance - The **China humanoid supply chain** has outperformed the MSCI China index, with component manufacturers leading the rally [31][32]. Conclusion - The humanoid robotics industry in China is on a growth trajectory, driven by advancements in technology and local manufacturing capabilities. However, challenges remain in terms of application success rates and cost management. The focus on cost reduction and technical improvements will be crucial for the industry's future success [7][13][24].