ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) Q4 2025 Earnings call February 05, 2026 12:00 PM ET Company ParticipantsAndy O'Brien - CFO and EVP of Strategy and CommercialDevin McDermott - Managing Director and Head of North American Integrated Oil and Exploration & Production ResearchGuy Baber - VP of Investor RelationsJames West - Managing Director and Head of Energy & PowerKevin McCurdy - Managing DirectorKirk Johnson - EVP of Global Operations and Technical FunctionsNeil Singhvi Mehta - Head of Americas Natural Resources E ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company achieved same-property revenue growth of 3.3% for 2025, which was at the high end of guidance and 30 basis points ahead of original projections [10][12] - FFO per share growth is expected to be flat year-over-year for 2026, reflecting a conservative modeling approach due to redemptions within the Structured Finance portfolio [13][14] - Same-property NOI growth is forecasted to increase by 2.1% at the midpoint for 2026 [12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The fourth quarter saw a blended lease rate growth of 1.9% and occupancy increased by 20 basis points sequentially to 96.3% [4][5] - Los Angeles showed the best occupancy improvement, increasing 70 basis points sequentially, indicating progress towards stabilization [5][28] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Northern California outperformed expectations due to technology sector expansion, favorable migration trends, and limited new housing supply [4][6] - Rent growth across most Essex markets outperformed the U.S. average, demonstrating the advantage of limited housing supply even in a soft employment environment [4][6] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company anticipates steady West Coast fundamentals to deliver solid blended rent growth above the U.S. average in 2026, led by Northern California [6][7] - The investment market remains healthy with $12.6 billion of non-portfolio institutional multifamily transactions in 2025, a 43% increase compared to 2024 [8] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The management noted that job growth is moderating, and major employers are cautious about hiring, which could temper near-term demand acceleration [6][7] - There is optimism regarding Northern California's recovery, supported by increased VC funding and positive office absorption [20][22] Other Important Information - The company is well-positioned from a funding perspective, with free cash flow covering dividends and planned capital expenditures [14][15] - The structured finance book is expected to stabilize, with a focus on new opportunities to backfill redemptions [60] Q&A Session Summary Question: Thoughts on demand for assets in Northern California and Seattle - Management acknowledged that Northern California is recovering, with job openings at top tech companies showing stability, while Seattle faced softness in the fourth quarter [18][21] Question: Expectations for new and renewal lease blends - The company expects new leases to grow flat to 2% and renewals around 3%-4% for the year [24] Question: Performance expectations for Los Angeles - Management indicated steady improvement in occupancy, with hopes to reach stabilization at 95% soon [28][29] Question: Cap rates and investment opportunities in Southern California - The company noted a healthy environment with transactions occurring in the 4.5-4.75 cap rate range, and they will evaluate opportunities to create value [35][39] Question: Legislative impacts on rental housing - Management reported no significant impact from immigration policies, with trends returning to pre-COVID levels [55][100] Question: Changes in move-in pace from outside core markets - An increase in immigration trends was noted, particularly in the northern region, driven by return-to-office policies [100]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In 2025, ConocoPhillips produced 2,320,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, consistent with production guidance [12] - Adjusted earnings per share were $1.02, with cash from operations (CFO) amounting to $4.3 billion [12] - Capital expenditures for the year totaled $12.6 billion, with $3 billion spent in the fourth quarter [12] - The company returned $9 billion to shareholders in 2025, representing 45% of CFO [12][13] - Cash and short-term investments increased to $7.4 billion, with net debt reduced by nearly $2 billion [13] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Production grew by 2.5% in 2025, with significant reductions in capital and operating costs [7] - The company improved drilling and completion efficiencies by over 15% in 2025 [16] - The Lower 48 segment is expected to deliver more production for less capital, benefiting from high-quality asset bases [15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company anticipates a production guidance of 2.23 million to 2.26 million barrels of oil equivalent per day for 2026 [15] - The cash flow breakeven is expected to decline into the low $30 per barrel WTI range by the end of the decade [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - ConocoPhillips aims to achieve a $1 billion reduction in capital spending and operating costs in 2026 while growing production [9] - The company is focused on organic growth rather than mergers and acquisitions, emphasizing its strong resource position [22][23] - Major projects are expected to drive a $7 billion free cash flow inflection by 2029, with incremental free cash flow anticipated from 2026 through 2028 [11] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's strong financial position and ability to return capital to shareholders while maintaining an investment-grade balance sheet [8][13] - The company is optimistic about the long-term demand for oil and gas, particularly with upcoming LNG projects and the Willow development [63] Other Important Information - The company successfully integrated Marathon Oil, exceeding acquisition case metrics and realizing $1 billion in one-time benefits [8] - The organic reserve replacement ratio was just under 100% for 2025, with a three-year average of 106% [13][87] Q&A Session Questions and Answers Question: Industry consolidation and Conoco's role - Management indicated that the company has completed its major M&A activities and is now focused on organic growth opportunities within its portfolio [22][23] Question: Update on Venezuela and Citgo sale - Management emphasized the priority of recovering owed amounts from Venezuela and noted no changes regarding the Citgo sale [25][26] Question: Evaluation of international opportunities - Management discussed ongoing efforts to improve fiscal conditions in Libya and the potential for new opportunities in Equatorial Guinea [31][33] Question: Alaska exploration program objectives - The exploration program aims to identify resource opportunities that can tie back into existing infrastructure, enhancing production capacity [36][39] Question: Well productivity trends in Lower 48 - Management highlighted strong productivity improvements in the Delaware Basin and Eagle Ford, driven by technology and optimization strategies [42][45] Question: Breakeven trajectory and capital expenditure assumptions - Current breakeven is in the mid-$40s, with expectations to lower it to the low $30s by 2030 as new projects come online [48][52] Question: Free cash flow contributions from LNG projects - Management expects significant contributions from LNG projects in 2027 and 2028, with a focus on maintaining competitive pricing [77][79]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - TPG reported GAAP net income attributable to TPG Inc. of $77 billion and after-tax distributable earnings of $304 million, or $0.71 per share of Class A common stock [4] - Full-year fee-related revenue reached $2.1 billion, including $628 million for the fourth quarter, which grew 36% year-over-year [31] - After-tax distributable earnings increased 17% year-over-year to $304 million, marking the highest level since becoming a public company [35] - Total AUM increased 23% year-over-year to $303 billion, driven by $51 billion of capital raised and $24 billion of value creation [35] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Software represents 11% of total AUM, with 18% in private equity and approximately 2% in credit [8] - The credit platform raised a record $21 billion during the year, up 67% from 2024, with a record $9 billion raised in the fourth quarter alone [17] - Private equity fundraising grew over 80% to $28 billion in 2025, while overall industry fundraising for PE declined 11% [20] - The real estate platform appreciated 9% in 2025, with $6 billion of capital deployed [25] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company experienced double-digit value creation across nearly all platforms in 2025, with private equity strategies appreciating 11% over the last twelve months [37] - The credit platform also appreciated 11% over the last twelve months, maintaining strong credit quality with non-accruals just over 1% [38] - The real estate portfolios appreciated more than 9% for the year, driven by robust value creation in data center holdings and other sectors [39] Company Strategy and Development Direction - TPG aims to continue driving outsized growth by scaling existing and newer strategies, deepening integration of capital markets capabilities, and selectively capitalizing on inorganic opportunities [28] - The company is focused on expanding its private wealth strategy and enhancing its insurance solutions business, with a strategic partnership with Jackson Financial expected to close soon [12][42] - TPG plans to begin fundraising for several new funds in 2026, including TPG Real Estate's next fund and various Asia-focused funds [41] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the firm's ability to sustain growth and deliver differentiated value for stakeholders, citing a strong performance in 2025 as a foundation for future success [47] - The company anticipates another robust year of capital formation in 2026, expecting aggregate capital raising to exceed $50 billion [41] - Management highlighted the importance of maintaining strong relationships with borrowers and sponsors to ensure credit quality and performance [50][54] Other Important Information - TPG's new and emerging strategies attracted over $7 billion of commitments in 2025, indicating effective identification and scaling of high-potential opportunities [16] - The company ended 2025 with $72 billion of dry powder, representing 43% of fee-earning AUM, positioning it well for future investments [35] Q&A Session Summary Question: Concerns about direct lending performance sustainability - Management acknowledged the market's skepticism regarding direct lending performance but emphasized the unique characteristics of their lower middle market focus, which differs from upper middle market dynamics [50][51] Question: Inquiry about transaction fees and revenue outlook - Management noted that transaction fees in Q4 were driven by increased deployment and diversification across various platforms, indicating a long-term growth opportunity in capital markets [65][66] Question: Outlook for net deployment in credit business - Management highlighted the significant growth in the credit business and the expected upward trend in deployment opportunities due to increased capital formation and synergies from the Angelo Gordon acquisition [76][77]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company achieved same-property revenue growth of 3.3% for 2025, at the high end of guidance and 30 basis points ahead of original projections [10] - FFO per share growth is expected to be flat year-over-year for 2026, reflecting a conservative modeling approach [13][14] - Same-property NOI growth is forecasted to increase by 2.1% at the midpoint for 2026 [12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Blended lease rate growth was 1.9% in the fourth quarter, with occupancy increasing by 20 basis points to 96.3% [4] - Los Angeles showed the best occupancy improvement, increasing by 70 basis points sequentially [5] - The company anticipates blended lease rate growth of 2.5% at the midpoint for 2026, with new leases expected to range from flat to 2% and renewals around 3%-4% [24] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Northern California outperformed expectations due to technology sector expansion and favorable migration trends [4] - Rent growth across most Essex markets outperformed the U.S. average, demonstrating the advantage of limited housing supply [4] - Seattle experienced soft performance in the fourth quarter, with several corporate layoffs impacting expectations [21] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to continue evaluating opportunities and allocate capital with a focus on creating shareholder value [9] - The investment strategy emphasizes FFO per share and NAV per share accretion, targeting investments with higher growth profiles [35] - The company is cautious about new developments, indicating that significant reductions in land prices or substantial rent growth are needed for new projects to be economically viable [49] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The management noted a slow but stable economic growth outlook for the U.S. in 2026, with job growth expected to remain consistent [6] - There is a cautious approach to hiring among major employers, which could temper near-term demand acceleration [7] - The company sees potential for improvement in Northern California due to increased venture capital funding and positive office absorption trends [20] Other Important Information - The company reported $12.6 billion in non-portfolio institutional multifamily transactions in 2025, a 43% increase from 2024 [8] - The company has over $1.7 billion in liquidity and is well-positioned from a funding perspective [15] - Advocacy costs were $2 million in 2025, with expectations for minimal advocacy costs in 2026 [87] Q&A Session Summary Question: Thoughts on demand for assets in Northern California and Seattle - Management noted that Northern California is showing signs of recovery, with job openings at tech companies stabilizing, while Seattle's performance was soft due to layoffs [18][21] Question: Expectations for new and renewal lease blends - Management expects new leases to be flat to 2% and renewals around 3%-4% for the year [24] Question: Performance expectations for Los Angeles - Management indicated steady improvement in occupancy, with economic occupancy at 94.7%, close to stabilization [28] Question: Impact of immigration on demand - Management has not seen a direct impact from immigration but noted an increase in immigration trends in the northern region [101] Question: Legislative impacts on rental housing - Management is monitoring policy changes but has not seen significant adverse impacts from recent legislative trends [60][96]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - TPG reported GAAP net income attributable to TPG Inc. of $77 billion and after-tax distributable earnings of $304 million, or $0.71 per share of Class A common stock [4][35] - Full-year fee-related revenue reached $2.1 billion, including $628 million for the fourth quarter, which grew 36% year-over-year [31] - The company finished 2025 with $303 billion of total AUM, up 23% from 2024, driven by $51 billion of capital raised and $24 billion of value creation [35] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In credit, TPG raised a record $21 billion of credit capital during the year, up 67% from 2024, with a record $9 billion raised in the fourth quarter alone [17] - Private equity fundraising grew over 80% to $28 billion in 2025, while overall industry fundraising for PE declined 11% [20] - The real estate platform appreciated 9% in 2025, with $6 billion of capital deployed [25] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Software represents 11% of total AUM, with 18% in private equity and approximately 2% in credit [8] - The company ended 2025 with $72 billion of dry powder, representing 43% of fee-earning AUM [35] Company Strategy and Development Direction - TPG aims to continue driving outsized growth by scaling existing and newer strategies, deepening integration of capital markets capabilities, and selectively capitalizing on inorganic opportunities [28][29] - The company is focused on expanding its private wealth strategy and enhancing its insurance solutions business [12][43] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the ability to sustain growth and deliver differentiated value for stakeholders, expecting 2026 to be another robust year of capital formation with aggregate capital raising expected to exceed $50 billion [40][41] - The company highlighted the importance of avoiding capital loss and managing exposures in the lending markets, particularly in the lower middle market [56] Other Important Information - TPG announced a long-term strategic partnership with Jackson Financial, which is expected to provide predictable fee revenue and enhance credit capabilities [12] - The company launched several new products in 2025, including Tika, a growth equity strategy, and Advantage Direct Lending, a new core middle market direct lending strategy [15] Q&A Session Questions and Answers Question: Concerns about direct lending performance sustainability - Management emphasized the differences between lower middle market lending and upper middle market lending, highlighting their unique position and rigorous monitoring of borrower performance [50][51][54] Question: Inquiry about transaction fees and revenue outlook - Management noted that transaction fees in Q4 were driven by increased deployment and diversification across various platforms, indicating a long-term growth opportunity in capital markets [66][67] Question: Outlook for net deployment in credit business - Management discussed the significant growth in credit capital and the synergies from the TPG and Angelo Gordon collaboration, which are expected to enhance deployment opportunities [78]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - TPG reported GAAP net income attributable to TPG Inc. of $77 billion and after-tax distributable earnings of $304 million, or $0.71 per share of Class A common stock [3] - Full-year fee-related revenue reached $2.1 billion, including $628 million for the fourth quarter, which grew 36% year-over-year [29] - The company finished 2025 with $303 billion of total AUM, up 23% from 2024, driven by $51 billion of capital raised and $24 billion of value creation [34] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Software represents 11% of total AUM, with 18% in private equity and approximately 2% in credit [6] - The credit platform raised a record $21 billion of credit capital during the year, up 67% from 2024 [16] - Private equity fundraising grew over 80% to $28 billion in 2025, while overall industry fundraising for PE declined 11% [19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company ended 2025 with $72 billion of dry powder, representing 43% of fee-earning AUM [34] - The private equity strategies appreciated 3% in the fourth quarter and 11% over the last twelve months [36] - The credit platform also appreciated 3% in the quarter and 11% over the last twelve months [36] Company Strategy and Development Direction - TPG aims to continue driving outsized growth by scaling existing and newer strategies, deepening integration of capital markets capabilities, and selectively capitalizing on inorganic opportunities [27] - The company is focused on expanding its private wealth strategy and enhancing its insurance solutions business [11][41] - TPG plans to begin fundraising for several new funds in real estate and credit, indicating a multiyear period of growth [40] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the sustainability of performance and the ability to maintain strong capital formation, expecting 2026 to exceed $50 billion in capital raising [39] - The company highlighted the importance of differentiating its offerings in the market, particularly in the lower middle market, which is less competitive than the upper middle market [50] - Management noted that the strong performance and disciplined investment approach position TPG well to capitalize on attractive investments [9] Other Important Information - TPG's new and emerging strategies attracted over $7 billion of commitments in 2025, underscoring the firm's ability to identify and scale high-potential opportunities [14] - The company reported a record FRE margin of 52% in the fourth quarter and a full-year FRE margin of 45%, reflecting significant capital markets revenue [32] Q&A Session Summary Question: Concerns about sustaining performance in direct lending - Management emphasized the unique dynamics of the lower middle market, where TPG operates as a primary lender with higher coverage ratios and disciplined lending practices [50][51] - They highlighted their rigorous monitoring processes and strong relationships with borrowers, which enhance their ability to value the portfolio accurately [52][54] Question: Inquiry about transaction fees and revenue outlook - Management noted that transaction fees in Q4 were driven by a broadening capital markets business and a significant increase in deployment activity [66] - They expect capital markets to be a long-term growth opportunity, despite some lumpiness in revenue [66] Question: Outlook for net deployment in credit - Management indicated that the credit business has seen substantial growth in capital formation and deployment, particularly in structured credit and new strategies like Advantage Direct Lending [78][79]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In 2025, ConocoPhillips reported a production growth of 2.5% on a pro forma basis, while achieving a return of 45% of cash flow from operations (CFO) to shareholders [4][10] - The company generated $1.02 per share in adjusted earnings and $4.3 billion of CFO in the fourth quarter [10] - Capital expenditures for the fourth quarter were $3 billion, totaling $12.6 billion for the full year [10][12] - Cash balances increased by $1 billion, and net debt was reduced by nearly $2 billion, highlighting a strong financial position [11][12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Lower 48 segment showed improved drilling and completion efficiencies, with a more than 15% increase in 2025 [14] - Production guidance for 2026 is set at 2.23 million to 2.26 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, indicating modest growth [13] - The company expects to continue delivering more production for less capital in the Lower 48, benefiting from high-quality asset bases [13][14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - ConocoPhillips closed over $3 billion in asset sales during 2025, progressing towards a $5 billion divestiture target [11] - The organic reserve replacement ratio for 2025 was just under 100%, with a trailing three-year average of 106% [11][88] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The primary focus for 2026 is to achieve a combined reduction of $1 billion in capital spending and operating costs while growing production [6][12] - The company aims to maintain a top-quartile dividend growth rate, with expectations of free cash flow breakeven declining into the low $30 per barrel WTI range by the end of the decade [6][12] - ConocoPhillips is investing in diverse major projects to enhance free cash flow generation, anticipating a $7 billion free cash flow inflection by 2029 [9] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's resource-rich position amid a maturing US shale industry, emphasizing a focus on organic growth rather than M&A [21][22] - The company is optimistic about the long-term outlook for oil demand, particularly with LNG and Willow projects coming online at a critical time [62] Other Important Information - The company has made significant progress in its LNG strategy, growing its offtake portfolio to approximately 10 million tons per annum [5] - The four major projects underway are expected to drive substantial free cash flow growth through the end of the decade [9] Q&A Session Summary Question: Industry consolidation and Conoco's role - Management indicated that the company has completed its heavy lifting on M&A and is now focused on organic growth opportunities within its portfolio [21][22] Question: Update on Venezuela and Citgo sale - Management reiterated their focus on recovering owed amounts from Venezuela and noted no changes regarding the Citgo sale [25][27] Question: Evaluation of international opportunities - Management discussed ongoing efforts to improve fiscal conditions in Libya and the potential for new opportunities in Equatorial Guinea [30][32] Question: Alaska exploration program objectives - The exploration program aims to identify resource opportunities to extend production capacity at Willow and enhance existing infrastructure [35][36] Question: Trends in well productivity in Lower 48 - Management highlighted strong productivity improvements in the Delaware and Eagle Ford basins, driven by technology and optimization strategies [41][43] Question: Breakeven trajectory and capital expenditure assumptions - Current free cash flow breakeven is in the mid-$40s, with expectations to decline to the low $30s by 2030 as new projects come online [45][51] Question: Free cash flow contribution from LNG projects - Management expects $1 billion annual free cash flow improvement from 2026 to 2028, with significant contributions from LNG projects [76][78]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In 2025, the company achieved same-store revenue growth of 3.3%, which was at the high end of guidance and 30 basis points ahead of original projections [9] - FFO per share growth was above the midpoint of guidance, reflecting strong operational performance [2] - The fourth quarter saw a blended lease rate growth of 1.9% and occupancy increased by 20 basis points to 96.3% [3][9] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported improved occupancy in Los Angeles, which increased by 70 basis points sequentially, indicating progress towards stabilization [3] - Northern California outperformed expectations due to technology sector expansion and limited housing supply, while Seattle and Southern California followed [3][4] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The broader U.S. economy is expected to experience slow but stable growth, with job trends remaining consistent [4] - Northern California is projected to lead Essex markets in rent growth, followed by Seattle and Southern California, with total new housing supply expected to decline by approximately 20% year-over-year [4][5] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to continue evaluating investment opportunities with a disciplined focus on creating shareholder value [8] - The strategy includes reallocating capital into higher growth, fee simple acquisitions in Northern California, which are expected to provide better risk-adjusted returns [12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that while job growth is soft nationally, Northern California is showing signs of recovery, particularly in venture capital funding and office absorption [19][20] - The company remains cautious about the unpredictable job environment influenced by public policy, which could temper near-term demand [21] Other Important Information - The investment market remains healthy, with $12.6 billion in non-portfolio institutional multifamily transactions in 2025, a 43% increase from 2024 [6] - Cap rates for highly sought-after submarkets are in the low 4% range, while the remaining submarkets are in the mid-4% range [7] Q&A Session Summary Question: Thoughts on demand for assets in Northern California and Seattle - Management indicated that Northern California is recovering, with job openings in tech companies showing stability, while Seattle has faced challenges due to layoffs but still has positive fundamentals [16][20] Question: Expectations for new and renewal lease blends - The company expects new leases to grow flat to 2% and renewals to be around 3-4% for the year, similar to 2025 [22] Question: Performance expectations for Los Angeles - Management noted steady improvement in LA's occupancy, with hopes to reach stabilization at 95% soon, driven by a decrease in supply [27][28] Question: Impact of concessions on San Francisco rent growth - The company clarified that concessions are not significantly affecting the recovery in San Francisco, which is currently about 9% above pre-COVID levels [30] Question: Cap rates and investment opportunities in Southern California - Management stated that transactions in Southern California have occurred in the 4.5-4.75 cap rate range, indicating a healthy investment environment [33] Question: Legislative impacts on rental housing - Management is monitoring legislative changes but does not expect significant impacts on their business from advocacy costs [86] Question: Changes in move-in pace from outside core markets - There has been an increase in immigration trends in Northern California, primarily driven by return-to-office policies rather than robust job growth [100]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2025, the company recorded net income attributable to common stockholders of $10.4 million or $0.09 per diluted share, with adjusted EBITDA of $118 million, a 19% increase from the prior quarter [25] - The company generated $69 million of operating cash flow from continuing operations during the quarter and $336 million for the full year, ending the year with $575 million in cash and total liquidity above $900 million [25][26] - For the full year, results met or exceeded original guidance for seven of eight volume and cost metrics, with seaborne thermal delivering 3.3 million tons, exceeding expectations [26] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Seaborne metallurgical coal shipped 2.5 million tons, up 400,000 from the third quarter, with realized pricing improving to $113 per ton [27] - The U.S. Thermal platform contributed $63 million of adjusted EBITDA in Q4, with nearly $250 million of adjusted EBITDA for the full year [28] - PRB operations shipped 22.3 million tons in Q4 and 84.5 million tons for the full year, almost 5 million tons or 6% more than the prior year [29] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Benchmark pricing for seaborne metallurgical coal rose to its highest mark in 18 months, increasing 15% from $190 per ton at the beginning of Q4 [16] - Coal fuel generation in the U.S. was up an estimated 13% year-over-year in 2025, running ahead of projections [20] - Asian countries continue to add coal generation capacity, with China adding 80 gigawatts of new capacity in 2025 [19] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The Centurion Mine is expected to ship an average of 4.7 million tons per year of premium hard coking coal, with a net present value for the project of $2.1 billion at $225 benchmark pricing [5][6] - The company aims to maximize long-term shareholder value by reweighting its portfolio toward higher-margin metallurgical coal [7] - Peabody is also evaluating renewable projects in formerly mined lands and developing a gas power station at the Centurion Mine [8] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in improving market fundamentals and highlighted a full agenda of priorities for the new year [3] - The company noted that coal remains a critical energy asset in the U.S., with substantial strength in both domestic thermal and seaborne metallurgical coal markets [15][13] - Management emphasized the importance of safety and environmental excellence, achieving a record safety year with an incident rate of 0.71 per 200,000 hours worked [3][4] Other Important Information - The company has conducted a robust critical mineral testing program, uncovering promising concentrations of heavy rare earths and other critical minerals [10] - Peabody is working with government agencies to strengthen domestic critical mineral supply chains and has been recommended for a $6.25 million grant for a pilot processing plant [11] Q&A Session Summary Question: What do you assume for the Australian dollar in the cost guide? - The company is looking at $0.70 for the Australian dollar and using a $225 benchmark pricing [39] Question: How much CapEx is potentially still left for Centurion development? - Approximately $100 million a year in development for the north for the next three years, plus $25 million a year in sustaining capital in the south [40] Question: How should we think about pricing in 2027 and beyond? - The company is not providing specific guidance for 2027 but expects favorable pricing conditions due to ongoing contracting [44] Question: What are the drivers for the increase in seaborne thermal costs? - The increase is primarily due to lower production volumes, particularly at Wilpinjong, and a slightly higher Australian dollar impacting costs [49] Question: How should we think about the cadence of shipments as the year progresses? - Seaborne thermal is expected to be less ratable in Q1, with a bounce back in Q2 and Q3, while Centurion will ramp up production throughout the year [54]