晨会纪要（2025/06/17） 编辑人 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 崔健 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.06.17） 宏观及策略研究 债券类融资同比多增――2025 年 5 月金融数据点评 基金研究 科创、消费板块资金净流入居前，主动权益基金仓位下调——公募基金周报 行业研究 潮玩赛道高热度，维持家居业绩改善预期——轻工制造&纺织服饰行业周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 6 晨会纪要（2025/06/17） 宏观及策略研究 债券类融资同比多增――2025 年 5 月金融数据点评 王哲语（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150524070001） 周 喜（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150511010017） 李济安（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150522060001） 1、债券融资支撑社融 5 月社融同比多增超 2000 亿元，政府债券融资同比多增超 2000 亿元，依然是社融增量的主要支撑；企业债 券融资也有较好表现，5 月 6 ...

晨会纪要（2025/06/12） 编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.06.12） 金融工程研究 主要指数多数上涨，两融余额小幅上升——融资融券周报 行业研究 关注城市更新行动带动的工程机械需求提升——机械设备行业周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 6 月 10 日，沪深两市两融余额为 18,114.59 亿元，较上周增加 123.64 亿元。其中融资余额为 17,992.43 亿元， 较上周增加 119.47 亿元；融券余额为 122.16 亿元，较上周增加 4.17 亿元。每日平均参与融资融券交易的投 资者数量为 334,806 名，较前一周增加 15.88%。 行业方面，上周电子、计算机和机械设备行业融资净买入额较多，食品饮料、银行和煤炭行业融资净买入 额较少。上周融资买入额占成交额比例较高的行业为非银金融、银行和钢铁，较低的行业为综合、纺织服 饰和轻工制造。融券方面，上周综合、石油石化和社会服务行业融券净卖出额较多，医药生物、电子和电 力设备行业融券净卖出额较少。 请务必阅读正 ...

研 行 行业周报 业 关注城市更新行动带动的工程机械需求提升 ——机械设备行业周报 | 究 | 分析师： | 宁前羽 | SAC | NO： S1150522070001 | 2025 | 年 06 | 月 | 日 11 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 机械设备 | | | | | | | | | | | | 投资要点： | | | | | | | | 证券分析师 | |  行业要闻 | | | | | | | | 宁前羽 | | | | | | | | | | ningqy@bhzq.com | | （1）5 月挖掘机销量为 | 万台，同比增长 2.12%。 1.82 | | | | | | | 022-23839174 | | | | | | | | | | | | （2）5 月装载机销量为 | 1.05 万台，同比增长 7.24%。 | | | | | | | 研究助理 | | （3）5 | 月工程机械主要产品月平均工作时长为 84.5 | 小时，同比下降 | | | 3.86%。 | | | 重点品种推荐 | ...

晨会纪要（2025/06/11） 编辑人 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 崔健 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.06.11） 宏观及策略研究 关税缓和的效果滞后——2025 年 5 月进出口数据点评 固定收益研究 发行金额环比增长，成交金额环比下降——信用债周报 行业研究 淡季影响逐渐深入，关注中美贸易谈判——金属行业周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 6 晨会纪要（2025/06/11） 宏观及策略研究 关税缓和的效果滞后——2025 年 5 月进出口数据点评 周 喜（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150511010017） 宋亦威（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150514080001） 严佩佩（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150520110001） 靳沛芃（研究助理，SAC NO：S1150124030005） 1、数据 海关总署发布最新贸易数据显示，2025 年 5 月美元计价中国出口同比增长 4.8%，前值增长 8.1%，市场预期 增 ...

行 行业周报 淡季影响逐渐深入，关注中美贸易谈判 | | | | | | | | | ——金属行业周报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 分析师： | | | | 张珂 | SAC NO： | S1150523120001 | 2025 | 年 06 | 月 | 10 | 日 | | 钢铁 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 有色金属 | | | | | 投资要点： | | | | | | | | 证券分析师 |  | | 行业情况及产品价格走势初判 | | | | | | | | | | 张珂 | | 钢铁：随着淡季进一步深入，建材和板材需求下降预期将逐步强化，钢材库存 | | | | | | | | | | | 022-23839062 | | | | | | 或正式进入累库周期。整体看，短期基本面将继续承压，钢价将维持弱势。 | | | | | | | zhangke@bhzq.com | | | | | | | | | | | | | 研究助理 | | ...

基 金 研 究 基金周报 沪深市场主要指数估值上调，资金延续净流入债券类 ETF 证券分析师 宋旸 songyang@bhzq.com 022-28451131 研究助理 张笑晨 SAC NO：S1150123060017 zhangxc@bhzq.com 022-23839033 分析师：宋旸 SAC NO：S1150517100002 2025 年 6 月 9 日 相关研究报告 2025年6月沪深两市重点宽基 指数样本股调整分析—权益 事件点评 2025.06.06 债券型 ETF 资金流入明显， 公募基金管理规模突破 33 万 亿—公募基金周报 2025.06.04 小盘价值风格表现突出，宽 基 ETF 呈现净流出—公募基 金 6 月月报 2025.06.04 核心观点： 基金表现方面，上周，各类基金均有不同幅度的上涨，权益类基金表现突 出，其中，偏股混合型基金周净值平均上涨 1.93%。债券类基金中，混合 债券型基金(二级)上涨 0.40%，正收益占比 98.30%。FOF 基金中，养老目 标 FOF 上涨 0.67%，正收益占比 100.00%。另外，QDII 基金平均上涨 1.63%，正收益占比 ...

Industry Overview - The furniture retail sector in China saw a significant year-on-year growth of 20.20% in the first four months, with total retail sales amounting to 583.40 billion yuan [17][51] - The furniture manufacturing industry reported a revenue of 197.35 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 3.60% year-on-year [17] - The consumption upgrade policy, particularly the "old-for-new" program, has positively impacted sales, with over 5.76 million home renovation orders recorded [51] Market Performance - From May 6 to May 30, the light industry sector outperformed the CSI 300 index by 2.97 percentage points, with a growth of 4.82% compared to the index's 1.85% [46] - The textile and apparel sector also outperformed the CSI 300 index by 4.18 percentage points, achieving a growth of 6.03% [50] Strategic Recommendations - Companies such as Oppein Home, Sophia, and Petty have been rated as "Buy" due to their strong market positions and growth potential [2][56] - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for the light industry and textile sectors, indicating a cautious but optimistic outlook [56] Trade and Regulatory Environment - Recent developments in US-China trade relations have led to a temporary easing of tariff risks, with the US extending certain tariff exemptions until August 2025 [54] - The global market for new tobacco products, including e-cigarettes, is experiencing growth, with sales increasing by 12.7% for heated tobacco and 9.5% for e-cigarettes [55] Emerging Opportunities - The recent launch of AI glasses, such as the Thunder X3 Pro and Liweike View AI glasses, presents potential investment opportunities in the tech sector [56] - The tightening of regulations on e-cigarettes in China may benefit compliant new tobacco companies, creating a favorable environment for growth [55]

Macro and Strategy Research - The manufacturing sector shows signs of recovery with the May PMI data indicating a manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) of 49.5%, a non-manufacturing business activity index of 50.3%, and a composite PMI output index of 50.4% [2] - The production index increased by 0.9 percentage points to 50.7%, attributed to a low base from April and improved US-China trade relations leading to a "export rush effect" [3] - New orders index rose by 0.6 percentage points to 49.8%, while new export orders increased by 2.8 percentage points to 47.5% due to the temporary suspension of certain tariffs [3] - Large enterprises' manufacturing PMI rose by 1.5 percentage points to 50.7%, indicating a positive outlook for production and potential benefits for small and medium enterprises [3] - The non-manufacturing business activity index slightly decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 50.3%, with the construction sector seeing a decline while the service sector experienced a minor increase [4] - The composite PMI output index rose by 0.2 percentage points to 50.4%, reflecting a synchronized recovery in both manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors [4] - The short-term outlook suggests that the "export rush effect" may continue due to a 90-day tariff exemption, although seasonal factors may exert downward pressure in June [4] Industry Research - The metal industry faces ongoing supply surplus pressures, with significant declines in lithium prices observed in May [6] - Steel demand is expected to remain weak in June due to weather factors, with prices likely to fluctuate [6] - Copper prices may experience short-term fluctuations due to seasonal demand and trade policy uncertainties, although domestic stimulus measures may provide some support [7] - Aluminum prices are anticipated to remain weak, influenced by traditional seasonal demand and ongoing uncertainties in international trade relations [7] - Lithium prices are under pressure due to increased supply from salt lake lithium extraction, with expectations of continued weakness in the short term [7] - The cobalt market shows no significant support for price increases, with a general expectation of price adjustments [7] - Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate, with attention on Indonesia's nickel export policies [7] - The strategy for copper and aluminum suggests resilience in demand supported by domestic economic stimulus and potential improvements in overseas demand due to changes in EU tariff policies [8] - Long-term factors such as high US debt levels, inflation risks, and global geopolitical complexities are expected to support gold prices [8] - The rare earth sector is positioned for long-term growth driven by new demand from robotics and renewable energy sectors [8]

Macro and Strategy Research - The external environment shows volatility, with the US experiencing a decline in durable goods orders, particularly in non-defense capital goods, leading to cautious investment outlooks among businesses [2][3] - Domestic policies are expected to focus on boosting internal demand, with local governments implementing measures to enhance consumption, reflecting a trend towards quality upgrades and environmental improvements [3] Fixed Income Research - Industrial enterprise profit data for January to April shows improvement, with a narrowing decline in profit margins due to the impact of tariff policies and falling international commodity prices [4][6] - The primary market saw the issuance of 66 bonds totaling 769.2 billion, with net financing of 511.1 billion, indicating a high issuance scale for government bonds [6] - The secondary market experienced mixed performance in bond yields, with the 10-year government bond yield decreasing by 3 basis points to 1.69% [6][7] Industry Research - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector continues to thrive, with multiple innovative drugs receiving approval, including three from Heng Rui Medicine and others from Fosun Pharma and Zai Lab [8][10] - The industry saw a 2.26% increase in the pharmaceutical sector index, outperforming other sectors, with a current price-to-earnings ratio of 27.74, indicating a 150% premium over the CSI 300 index [10] - The upcoming American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) conference is expected to provide significant updates on innovative drug data, suggesting continued investment opportunities in the sector [11]

Investment Rating - The industry maintains a "Neutral" rating [7][62]. Core Views - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry continues to experience a favorable environment with multiple innovative drugs receiving approval for market entry, indicating sustained industry vitality [6][7]. - The recent approval of several innovative drugs, including those from 恒瑞医药 and 复星医药, highlights ongoing advancements in drug development and potential investment opportunities [6][29][30]. - The upcoming American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) conference is expected to provide further updates on significant research findings, which may influence investment strategies in innovative drugs and related sectors [7][61]. Industry News - 恒瑞医药 has received conditional approval for three Class 1 innovative drugs, including 苹果酸法米替尼胶囊 and 注射用瑞康曲妥珠单抗 [4][29]. - 复星医药's subsidiary has also gained approval for drugs such as 枸橼酸伏维西利胶囊 and 芦沃美替尼片 [4][30]. - 石药集团 is in discussions for potential licensing and collaboration on several products, which could lead to significant financial opportunities [4][31]. - 泽璟制药's 盐酸吉卡昔替尼片 has been approved for market entry, expanding its product offerings [4][32]. Market Review - In the week from May 23 to May 29, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.50%, while the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.90%. In contrast, the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector rose by 2.26%, with most sub-sectors showing positive performance [5][45]. - The current price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry is 27.74 times, with a valuation premium of 150% relative to the CSI 300 index [5][51]. Weekly Strategy - The ongoing trend in innovative drug approvals is expected to continue, with significant attention on the impact of U.S. tariff policy changes on the CXO sector [6][59]. - Investors are advised to focus on innovative drugs and related supply chains, as well as sectors benefiting from domestic demand recovery, such as medical services and pharmaceutical commerce [7][61].