宏观经济分析报告 5 海外非农增长，国内通胀回升 ――宏观经济周报 证券分析师 周喜[Table_IndInvest] 022-28451972 zhouxi@bhzq.com 宋亦威[Table_IndInvest] SAC NO：S1150514080001 022-23861608 songyw@bhzq.com 严佩佩 SAC NO：S1150520110001 022-23839070 yanpp@bhzq.com 研究助理 就外围环境而言，美国 2025 年 12 月零售销售增长意外陷入停滞，计入 GDP 测算的控制组零售销售环比增速转负，高企的生活成本持续压制中低 收入人群消费。非农就业则扭转 2025 年底持续疲弱的态势，超预期反弹。 政府部门就业受"公务员买断计划"生效影响大幅下滑，私人部门就业继续 依靠教育和医疗服务行业支撑，而金融、信息等行业就业的持续下滑证明人 工智能对部分工种的替代效应已在发生。失业率在劳动参与率上升的情况 下下降，与此同时时薪增速小幅上涨。另外，本月还公布了 2025 年度非农 就业基准终值，虽然相较于初值略微上调，但整体依然显示过往统计数据存 在高估。从谨慎角度出 ...

固 定 收 益 研 究 固定收益周报 债市延续偏强震荡 ――利率债周报 | | 分析师： 王哲语 | SAC NO： S1150524070001 2026 年 2 月 13 | 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 研 | [Table_Author] | 统计区间：2026 年 2 月 6 日至 2026 年 2 月 12 日 | | | | 证券分析师 | | | | | [Table_IndInvest]  王哲语 | 重要事件点评 | | | 究 | | | | | | 022-23839051 | 通胀数据：1 月核心 CPI 环比涨幅扩大至近 6 个月最高，主要源于节假 | | | | wangzheyu@bhzq.com | 日出行需求升温、国际金价上行等；PPI 环比涨幅扩大，主要源于"反 | | | | | 内卷"与新质生产力发展并进。展望来看，春节因素有望带动 月 2 | CPI | | | 周喜 | 同环比涨幅扩大，PPI 环比涨幅或与 1 月接近，同比降幅进一步收窄。 | | | |  | 资金价格：节前资金面平稳 | | | 证 | SAC NO：S1 ...

Investment Rating - The industry maintains a "Neutral" rating, with specific company ratings of "Buy" for Heng Rui Pharmaceutical (600276) and "Increase" for WuXi Biologics (603259) [46] Core Insights - The recent national drug procurement has been stable, with active participation from companies and continued benefits for patients [8][9] - The issuance of the "National Basic Drug Directory Management Measures" aims to enhance the management of essential medicines [10][11] - Heng Rui Pharmaceutical reported positive top-line results for its GLP-1/GIP dual receptor agonist, indicating significant weight loss in clinical trials [12] - The approval of Mu Feng Da® for the treatment of adult type 2 diabetes marks a significant development in the market [12] Industry News - The national drug procurement involved 316 commonly used drugs across 26 therapeutic areas, with a high participation rate from over 5,100 medical institutions and 1,091 companies [8][9] - The procurement process has been standardized, allowing companies to bid online once for nationwide sales, significantly reducing costs [9] - The management measures for the national basic drug directory have been revised to include legal policy bases and optimize the directory structure [10][11] Company Announcements - Innovent Biologics has entered a global strategic partnership with Eli Lilly to advance new drug development in oncology and immunology [26] - Kelun Pharmaceutical's TROP2 ADC has received approval for a fourth indication from the NMPA [27] - Heng Rui Pharmaceutical's drug has been included in the list of breakthrough therapy products, and its application for marketing approval has been accepted for priority review [28] - WuXi Biologics has forecasted a positive earnings outlook, expecting a revenue increase of approximately 16.7% [30] Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.43%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 2.37%, with the SW Pharmaceutical and Biotech Index up by 0.23% [36] - The industry’s price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) stands at 51.17, with a valuation premium of 259% compared to the CSI 300 [40] Weekly Strategy - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in innovative drugs, CXO, and upstream life sciences, while also monitoring performance recovery indicators [46]

Macro and Strategy Research - The PPI year-on-year decline continues to narrow, with a January PPI decrease of 1.4% and a month-on-month increase of 0.4, indicating improvements in supply-demand structures in key sectors and rising prices in some industries due to international metal prices [4][7] - The CPI for January increased by 0.2% both year-on-year and month-on-month, with a marginal decline in the year-on-year growth rate attributed to high base effects from the previous year and falling energy prices [3][4] - The central bank's monetary policy report emphasizes continued implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy, focusing on stabilizing economic growth and reasonable price recovery, with no immediate expectations for rate cuts or reserve requirement ratio reductions [4] Industry Research - Significant capital expenditure growth is observed among overseas cloud vendors, with projected capital expenditures reaching $660 billion in 2026, a 60% increase from 2025, indicating strong demand for AI computing power [11] - The AI application sector is approaching a commercialization inflection point, with notable advancements in products like ByteDance's AI video generation model Seedance 2.0, which shows significant improvements in core metrics and is expected to enhance content production efficiency [11] - The computer industry saw a 1.72% increase in the week from February 5 to February 11, with all sub-sectors experiencing growth, highlighting a positive market trend [9]

宏观经济分析报告 "反内卷"与新质生产力发展并进 ――2026 年 1 月物价数据点评 展望来看，（1）生猪供给仍较充足，猪价或延续低位震荡；春节前鲜菜 价格或再度上涨。（2）油价对 CPI 同环比将转为上拉；（3）春节因素或 带动核心通胀同环比涨幅扩大。综上预计 2026 年 2 月 CPI 同环比涨幅均 扩大。 PPI："反内卷"与新质生产力发展并进 2026 年 1 月 PPI 同比降幅收窄，环比涨幅扩大。国际定价商品中，输入 性因素继续拖累国内石油相关行业价格；受铜矿供应持续紧缺、AI 投资 扩张等因素影响，有色金属产业链价格继续上行。国内定价商品中，（1） 上游原材料中，"反内卷"持续显效，基础化学原料制造、黑色金属加工 价格由降转涨，煤炭产业链则暂时降温。（2）中游制造业中，除"反内 卷"带动锂离子电池、光伏设备制造等价格由降转涨外，人工智能等数 字化技术加快发展、算力需求增长带动电子设备制造业价格环比上涨。 （3）下游消费品制造业中，春节提振效应明显，礼品和食品等备货需求 增加带动工艺品制造、农副食品加工价格上涨。 展望来看，2 月输入型通胀或有升温；国内定价商品价格的积极因素仍然 是两大方向， ...

| 分析师： | 宋亦威 | SAC NO： | S1150514080001 | 2026 | 年 | 2 | 月 | 12 | 日 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Table_Analysis] | [Table_Summary] | 投资要点： | 证券分析师 | 市场回顾，近 | 个交易日（2 | 月 | 日-2 | 月 | 日），重要指数纷纷收涨； |  | 5 | 6 | 12 | 宋亦威 | | 其中，上证综指收涨 | 1.43%，创业板指收涨 | 2.08%；风格层面，沪深 | 300 | 022-23861608 | 收涨 | 1.05%，中证 | 收涨 | 3.41%。成交方面显著缩量，两市统计区间 | 500 | songyw@bhzq.com | | | | | | 内成交 | 万亿元，日均成交额降至 | 万亿元，较前五个交易日的 | 10.63 | 2.13 | [Table_Author] | 严佩佩 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for the computer industry and an "Accumulate" rating for Hongsoft Technology (688088) [2][28] Core Insights - The report highlights that overseas cloud vendors such as Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Meta are expected to have capital expenditures reaching $660 billion in 2026, a year-on-year increase of approximately 60% compared to 2025. This indicates a robust growth phase for global AI computing demand despite concerns over cash flow pressures for these companies [27] - The AI application sector is witnessing multiple catalysts, with ByteDance's AI video generation model Seedance 2.0 showing significant improvements in core metrics, which is expected to enhance its application in areas like AI short dramas and industry reports, thereby reducing costs and increasing efficiency in content production [27] - The report suggests focusing on leading companies that possess strong AI technology implementation capabilities and scene adaptability as the industry approaches a commercialized inflection point [27] Industry News - ByteDance's latest video generation model Seedance 2.0 has entered internal testing, supporting multi-modal input and intelligent scene segmentation, significantly reducing the cost of traditional film IP development [14] - Anthropic has released its new AI model Claude Opus 4.6, which enhances autonomy and focus, improving capabilities in code planning, debugging, and review [14][15] Company Announcements - Unisplendour announced a plan to issue A-shares to specific targets, aiming to raise up to 5.57 billion yuan for acquiring a 6.98% stake in H3C, R&D equipment purchases, and repaying bank loans [17] - Parallel Technology plans to purchase GPU computing servers for up to 117 million yuan to expand its computing resource pool [18] - China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation announced an investment of 153 million yuan for construction projects in its consumables industrial park [20] Market Review - From February 5 to February 11, the CSI 300 index rose by 0.32%, while the Shenwan Computer Industry Index increased by 1.72%, with all sub-sectors showing positive growth [21]

行 行业周报 1 月挖机销量为 1.87 万台，同比增长 49.5% | | | ——机械设备行业周报 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 分析师： | 宁前羽 | SAC NO： S1150522070001 2026 年 2 月 | 12 日 | | 机械设备 | | 投资要点： | | | 证券分析师 宁前羽 | |  行业要闻 | | | ningqy@bhzq.com | | （1）1 月销售各类挖掘机 台，同比增长 49.5%。 18708 | | | 022-23839174 | | | | | | | （2）1 月销售各类装载机 11759 台，同比增长 48.5%。 | | | | | 月工程机械主要产品月平均工作时长为 小时。 （3）1 72.5 | | | 重点品种推荐 | | | | | 中联重科 | 增持 |  公司公告 | | | 恒立液压 | 增持 | （1）津荣天宇发布关于对外投资产业基金的公告。 | | | 捷昌驱动 | 增持 | | | | 豪迈科技 | 增持 | （2）艾迪精密公告 2025 年经营业绩情况。 | | | | | 周行情回顾 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market saw most major indices rise last week (February 4 to February 10), with the Shanghai 50 index experiencing the largest increase of 1.74%. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.49%, while the Shenzhen Component increased by 0.59%. The ChiNext index fell by 0.13%, and the CSI 300 rose by 1.38% [3]. - As of February 10, the margin trading balance in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 26,517.83 billion yuan, a decrease of 459.93 billion yuan from the previous week. The financing balance was 26,350.49 billion yuan, down by 460.03 billion yuan, while the securities lending balance increased slightly to 167.34 billion yuan [3]. Industry Insights - The media, comprehensive, and environmental protection industries saw significant net buying in financing, while the non-ferrous metals, telecommunications, and non-bank financial sectors experienced lower net buying. The industries with higher financing buy-in ratios relative to transaction volumes included non-bank financials, telecommunications, and electronics, whereas textiles, light manufacturing, and construction materials had lower ratios [4]. - In terms of securities lending, the media, coal, and machinery equipment sectors had higher net selling amounts, while non-ferrous metals, food and beverage, and defense industries had lower net selling amounts [4]. ETF and Stock Performance - As of February 10, the financing balance for ETFs was 1,124.56 billion yuan, a decrease of 26.48 billion yuan from February 3, while the securities lending balance increased by 0.60 billion yuan to 75.45 billion yuan. The top five ETFs by net buying were E Fund CSI Overseas China Internet 50 (QDII-ETF), Southern CSI 1000 ETF, Hang Seng Technology, GF CSI Hong Kong Innovative Medicine (QDII-ETF), and Huabao CSI Medical ETF [4]. - The top five stocks by net buying in financing last week were Zhongwen Online (300364), Cambricon (688256), Kingsoft Office (688111), Kunlun Wanwei (300418), and Hengtong Optic-Electric (600487). The top five stocks by net selling in securities lending were Yanzhou Coal (600188), Jiangbolong (301308), Hengyi Petrochemical (000703), Changchuan Technology (300604), and Yinlun Machinery (002126) [4].

融资融券周报 主要指数多数上涨，两融余额继续下降 ――融资融券周报 证券分析师 王[Table_IndInvest] 雪莹 022-23839121 wangxy4430@bhzq.com 核心观点： 市场概况 上周（2 月 4 日-2 月 10 日）A 股市场主要指数多数上涨，其中上证 50 涨幅最大，上涨了 1.74%；创业板指跌幅最大，下跌了 0.13%。此外， 上证综指上涨 1.49%，深证成指上涨 0.59%，科创 50 上涨 0.03%，沪 深 300 上涨 1.38%，中证 500 上涨 0.24%。 2 月 10 日，沪深两市两融余额为 26,517.83 亿元，较上周减少 459.93 亿元。其中融资余额为 26,350.49 亿元，较上周减少 460.03 亿元；融 券余额为 167.34 亿元，较上周增加 0.10 亿元。户均融资融券余额为 1,398,825 元，较上周减少 10,417 元。有融资融券负债的投资者数量占 全体融资融券投资者数量的占比为 23.68%，较上周减少 0.29 个百分点。 2 月4 日-2 月10日每日平均参与融资融券交易的投资者数量为 432,017 名， ...