2025 年 6 月 11 日 星期三 每日大市点评 6 月 10 日，港股大盘走势反复，恒生指数盘中一度再上试高位，但买盘动力不足，最终微跌 19 点或 0.1%，收报 24,162 点。恒生科指下跌 0.8%，收报 5,392 点。大市成交金额 2,503 亿港元，其中盈富基金及恒生中国企业两只指数 ETF 成交 金额分别达到 165 亿及 140 亿港元，近期罕有登上成交活跃榜首两位。港股通净流入 75.9 亿港元。盘面上，内银、保 险、电力、生物医药、材料、交运等细分板块表现较理想。农行、建行及工行再创上市新高。生物医药继续憧憬 BD 交 易，乐普生物(2157 HK)、康方生物(9926 HK)、三生制药(1530 HK)分别升 9.8%至 15.5%不等。 当前 AH 溢价指数已回落至 130.5，处于三年内 8.8%分位数的低位水平。对于港股通内地个人投资者，H 股投资需缴纳 20% 股息税，考虑该税收后 AH 溢价指数约为 125，可见 H 股进一步上行空间不大。港股整体估值当前未达显著低估区间，恒 生指数风险溢价逼近滚动两年均值负两个标准差，反映市场风险补偿不足。然而，在情绪回暖及成交量回升 ...

2025 年 6 月 10 日 星期二 每日大市点评 6 月 9 日，中美在伦敦开启第二轮经贸磋商，港股大盘高开高走。恒生指数全日上升 389 点或 1.6%，收报 24,181 点，为 今年 3 月 18 日以来收市新高，恒生指数下一个重要关口将是 3 月 19 日的高点(24,874 点)。恒生科指上升 2.8%，收报 5,433 点。大市成交金额有 2,458 多亿港元，但港股通净流入仅 7.2 亿港元，内资高追意愿不大，更多以趁机获利或仓位 轮动为主。盘面上，非银金融、生物医药、平台消费、软件或 AI 相关板块升幅比较突出，其他板块个股升跌各半。港交 所(388 HK)受惠于年内 PO 数目及成交增加而持续强势，股价上升 3.3%，创超过三年新高 "新消费"股古茗(1364 HK)、蜜雪集团(2097 HK)及布鲁可(325 HK)首天获纳入港股通，三只股份获资金大幅流入，但最 终表现分化，其中布鲁可大升 22.3%收报 193.3 港元，创上市新高，但古茗及蜜雪均冲高后回落，最终仅上升 4.3%及 5.4%，未能创出新高。这些股份短期或因纳入港股通而获得显著增量资金，但其估值已经不便宜。该类"新消费 ...

市场憧憬中美元首通电，港股大盘全周先跌后升，恒生指数全周上升 2.2%，收报 23,792 点。恒生科指全周上升 2.2%，收 报 5,286 点。恒指公司上周五季检生效，使大市成交金额增加至 2,356 亿港元，但全周日均成交也按周下跌 7.6%至 2,039 亿港元，显示大多投资者仍在观望中。港股通全周净流入 149 亿港元，风格继续偏好高分红。板块上，材料及医疗保健行 业分类指数上分别升大升 5.6%及 4.1%，前者受到黄金及铜有色股份带动，后者则受惠于市场对中国创新药 BD 交易的预 期。全球市场风险偏好上升有助于港股表现，但当前估值已大幅修复，AH 溢价指数偏低，整体大盘以偏震荡为主。由于 部分焦点板块升幅已较大，较易有获利了结的倾向，预计未来一周港股难有明确主线，更多以板块轮动为主。 中美元首上周通话，双方同意团队继续落实好日内瓦共识，尽快举行新一轮会谈。我们认为消息有助于纾缓中美双边紧 张气氛，减少不确定性，促进港股情绪进一步修复。不过，中美双方在关税税率、高端芯片的进口、市场改革、产业补 贴、芬太尼等多方面仍存在较多分歧，预计中美能够达成共识的进度较缓慢且反复。 上周个别年内升幅凌厉的"新消 ...

Market Overview - On June 5, the market sentiment improved due to expectations of a call between the US and Chinese leaders, leading to a rise in the Hang Seng Index by 253 points or 1.1%, closing at 23,906 points, the highest since March 20 this year [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 1.9%, closing at 5,319 points, with total market turnover slightly increasing to HKD 222 billion, while net inflow from Hong Kong Stock Connect decreased to HKD 740 million [1] - Despite the positive market sentiment, trading volume did not significantly increase, indicating that many funds remain on the sidelines [1] Macro Dynamics - The US services sector contracted again, with the ISM Services PMI dropping to 49.9% in May, primarily due to a decline in new orders, which fell by 5.9 percentage points to 46.4%, the lowest since December 2022 [2] - The employment index in the services sector rose to 50.7%, indicating that companies are still hiring [2] - The divergence between ISM and Markit Services PMI suggests that international companies are more affected by tariff uncertainties, contributing to the slowdown in the US economy [2] Industry Dynamics - New consumption sector leaders experienced a pullback, with Lao Pu Gold (6181 HK) dropping 9.0% after reaching over HKD 1,000, despite positive market sentiment towards its new product series [3] - The Hang Seng Healthcare Index fell by 1.3%, with major companies showing little volatility [3] - In the energy sector, the Hong Kong utility sector generally rose, with Cheung Kong Infrastructure (1038 HK) increasing by 2.1% amid speculation about potential acquisitions [4] Energy Sector Insights - The coal price remains weak, with the Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal spot price at RMB 613 per ton, down 30.3% year-on-year [6] - The upcoming summer season is expected to boost demand for thermal power, making it a favorable time for thermal power stocks [6] - The Chinese government is promoting green electricity development, which may enhance the consumption of renewable energy [7] Company-Specific Insights - Huaneng International (902 HK) reported an 8.2% year-on-year increase in net profit for Q1 2025, benefiting from lower fuel costs and increased summer electricity demand [10] - China General Nuclear Power Corporation (1164 HK) signed a framework agreement for uranium sales, positioning itself to benefit from rising uranium prices due to increased demand from US nuclear energy initiatives [10] - New Hope Energy (2688 HK) is undergoing privatization, with its current price showing a 24.3% discount compared to the privatization offer, making it an attractive investment opportunity [10]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market continued its rebound with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.6% to close at 23,654, while the Hang Seng Tech Index also increased by 0.6% to 5,219. The trading volume reached HKD 212.6 billion, indicating active trading, although net inflows from the Stock Connect decreased by about 10% to HKD 3.5 billion [1] - The market showed a "stronger gets stronger" trend, with funds continuing to favor high-certainty stocks. New consumption leaders like Pop Mart (9992 HK) and Mao Geping (1318 HK) reached new highs, reflecting market premium recognition for scarce consumer brands [1] Macro Dynamics - In the U.S., job vacancies rose to 7.391 million in April, an increase of 191,000 from March, indicating resilience in the labor market. The ratio of job openings to job seekers remained at 1.03, consistent with 2019 levels [2] - Despite a rise in layoffs to 1.79 million, the layoff rate remains relatively low, suggesting that companies are hesitant to reduce staff amid a moderately slowing economy [2] Industry Dynamics Automotive Sector - The Chinese government is promoting the "2025 New Energy Vehicles Going to the Countryside" initiative, with 124 models included in the directory, including vehicles from BYD and Geely. The automotive sector in Hong Kong showed stable performance, with most stocks fluctuating between -1% and +2% [3] Consumer Sector - The new consumption and IP concept sectors continue to attract capital. Companies like Blucor (325 HK) have entered the Mexican market, showcasing their product matrix at exhibitions. Blucor and Pop Mart saw respective increases of 17% and 14% over the past five trading days [3] Healthcare Sector - The Hang Seng Healthcare Index rose by 3.2%, driven by recent licensing agreements between domestic pharmaceutical companies and global firms, boosting confidence in the export of innovative drugs. Companies like Innovent Biologics (1801 HK) reported promising clinical data at the ASCO conference, leading to a 14.1% surge in their stock price [4] Energy Sector - The energy sector, particularly nuclear and renewable energy stocks, saw significant gains. China General Nuclear Power (1164 HK) rose by 28.3% after signing a uranium sales framework agreement, benefiting from rising uranium prices due to increased demand from U.S. nuclear energy initiatives [5][9] Company-Specific Insights Huaneng International (902 HK) - The company reported an 8.2% year-on-year increase in net profit for Q1 2025, benefiting from lower fuel costs and increased electricity demand during the summer [11] China General Nuclear Power (1164 HK) - The company is expected to benefit from a new uranium sales agreement, with a pricing mechanism favoring current market prices, enhancing its position amid rising uranium demand [11] Stone Pharmaceutical (1093 HK) - The company experienced a 21.9% decline in total revenue for Q1 2025, primarily due to a slowdown in its core product sales. However, it anticipates a gradual recovery in sales starting from Q2 2025, supported by new licensing agreements and increased sales of oncology drugs [13][14][15]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Neutral" rating to the company with a target price raised to HKD 7.40 from HKD 6.30 [4][6]. Core Insights - The company's total revenue for Q1 2025 decreased by 21.9% year-on-year to RMB 7.01 billion, while net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 8.4% to RMB 1.48 billion. Excluding RMB 718 million in licensing fee income, product sales revenue was approximately 4.6% lower than expected, primarily due to a slowdown in the sales of established drugs [1][4]. - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in product sales revenue starting from Q2 2025, as the impact of centralized procurement for certain oncology drugs has already been reflected, and sales are expected to increase after the inclusion of new drugs in the medical insurance list by the end of 2024 [2][4]. - The company is expected to achieve multiple significant overseas licensing agreements, with Q1 licensing fee income of RMB 718 million primarily from agreements with BeiGene and AstraZeneca. These agreements involve upfront payments totaling USD 250 million (approximately RMB 1.8 billion) and potential milestone payments of up to USD 3.56 billion (approximately RMB 25.6 billion) [3][4]. Financial Summary - The company's projected total revenue for 2025 is RMB 29.89 billion, reflecting a 3.0% growth rate, while net profit is expected to be RMB 4.77 billion, a 10.2% increase. The earnings per share (EPS) is projected at RMB 0.41, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 17.4 [5][13]. - The financial data indicates a decline in established drug sales, with revenue from the core product Enbrel decreasing by 29.5% year-on-year, and oncology drug sales dropping by 65.7% due to centralized procurement impacts [1][5]. - The report includes a detailed financial forecast, showing total revenue growth rates of 1.7% in 2023, a decline of 7.8% in 2024, and subsequent growth rates of 3.0%, 12.8%, and 12.6% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5][13].

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market rebounded on June 3, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 1.5% to close at 23,512 and the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 1.1% to 5,189, indicating a significant recovery in market sentiment [1] - The trading volume reached HKD 203.7 billion, showing a notable increase compared to previous days, although the net inflow from the Stock Connect was only HKD 3.9 billion [1] - Major financial stocks, including CITIC Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, and Agricultural Bank of China, hit historical highs, reflecting continued investment in high-dividend defensive assets [1] Industry Dynamics - The automotive sector saw a rebound, with Xiaomi's automotive business losses decreasing and expectations for profitability in Q3 or Q4 of this year, driven by the upcoming launch of the YU7 model [3] - The healthcare sector also performed well, with the Hang Seng Healthcare Index rising by 2.5%. Notable gains were seen in companies reporting positive clinical data at the American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) [3] - The renewable energy and utilities sectors experienced widespread gains, with Goldwind Technology rising by 13.3% due to share buyback plans and the establishment of an AI-related subsidiary [4] Company-Specific Insights - The report on CSPC Pharmaceutical Group indicated a 21.9% year-on-year decline in total revenue for Q1 2025, amounting to RMB 7.01 billion, primarily due to a slowdown in the sales of its core products [5] - The company expects a gradual recovery in product sales starting from Q2 2025, as the impact of centralized procurement has already been reflected in Q1 results [6] - CSPC has secured multiple overseas licensing agreements, with expected upfront payments totaling approximately RMB 1 billion and potential milestone payments exceeding RMB 25.6 billion, indicating strong future revenue prospects [7][8] Real Estate Sector Analysis - The report on the Chinese real estate market highlighted a 12.0% year-on-year decline in new home transaction volume across 30 major cities, with first-tier cities showing resilience [9] - First-tier cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen reported increases in cumulative transaction volumes, with Shanghai up by 9.5% and Shenzhen by 45.8% year-on-year [10] - The land transaction volume in 100 major cities fell by 46.9% year-on-year, indicating ongoing challenges in the real estate sector [12]

Market Overview - On June 2, the Hang Seng Index opened lower and fell over 2.5% to 22,668 points before narrowing its losses, closing down 155 points or 0.7% at 23,134 points[1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index decreased by 0.8%, closing at 5,128 points, with total market turnover at approximately HKD 139.4 billion[1] - The market is showing signs of deeper adjustments if it lacks positive catalysts to rebound above 23,400 points[1] Sector Performance - Among major internet stocks, only Tencent (700 HK) and Xiaomi (1810 HK) saw gains, while Alibaba (9988 HK), Meituan (3690 HK), and JD.com (9618 HK) fell between 0.2% and 1.7%[1] - Macau gaming stocks outperformed the market, with May gaming revenue reaching MOP 21.19 billion, significantly exceeding expectations and marking a post-pandemic monthly high[1] Economic Indicators - New home sales in 30 major cities fell by 12.0% year-on-year, with first-tier cities showing a 10.4% increase, while second and third-tier cities dropped by 23.6% and 4.7% respectively[3] - The average new residential price in 100 cities rose by 2.6% year-on-year in May, with first-tier cities increasing by 6.2%[3] Industry Dynamics - The automotive sector is under pressure, with major companies reporting slower sales growth in May compared to April; BYD (1211 HK) saw a 15.3% increase, while Geely (175 HK) reported a 46% increase[4] - The healthcare sector followed the market down, with the Hang Seng Healthcare Index dropping by 1.9%[5] Investment Strategies - The current market lacks positive catalysts, suggesting a "defensive counterattack" strategy focusing on high-dividend sectors such as telecommunications, utilities, and energy[2] - The stock market may face technical pullbacks, with a support level at 22,500 points[2]

Trade Policy Impact - The U.S. International Trade Court ruled against Trump's "reciprocal tariff" policy, stating it exceeded authority, leading to a temporary halt on tariffs[1][2] - The ruling alleviated concerns over global economic impacts, contributing to a rise in stock markets, with the Hang Seng Index increasing by 315 points or 1.4% to close at 23,573 points[1] Market Performance - The Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 2.5%, closing at 5,301 points, with total market turnover slightly increasing to over HKD 226.9 billion[1] - Net inflow from the Hong Kong Stock Connect was HKD 4.38 billion, indicating a recovery in market risk appetite[1] Sector Movements - High beta and small-cap stocks saw increased trading activity, with Meituan and JD.com shares rising by 6.6% and 4.2%, respectively[1] - The pharmaceutical sector experienced gains ahead of the American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) meeting, with CSPC Pharmaceutical surging by 11.6%[5] Economic Indicators - The FOMC maintained interest rates amid inflation and growth concerns, with a cautious outlook on future economic data[3] - Manufacturing and services PMI data showed resilience in the U.S. economy, contributing to the Fed's decision to hold rates steady[3][15] Real Estate Trends - New home sales in 30 major cities increased by 0.2% year-on-year, with first-tier cities showing significant growth, particularly in Guangzhou with a 29.5% increase[7][8] - The inventory-to-sales ratio for major cities decreased to 85.3, indicating a tightening market[9] Risks and Outlook - Ongoing legal challenges and potential trade policy shifts pose risks to market stability and economic growth[2][18] - The market is entering a policy observation phase, with potential impacts from U.S.-China tensions and domestic economic conditions[14]

Market Overview - On May 28, the Hang Seng Index fell by 123 points or 0.5%, closing at 23,258 points, remaining below the 20-day moving average for three consecutive trading days[1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index decreased by 0.2%, closing at 5,174 points, indicating a weaker performance compared to the Hang Seng Index[1] - Daily trading volume dropped to over HKD 180.8 billion, with a net inflow of HKD 3.58 billion through the Stock Connect[1] - Average daily trading volume in May has decreased by approximately 17.5% compared to the average since the beginning of the year[1] Sector Performance - Low beta stocks in telecommunications, energy, and food and beverage sectors performed well, with Budweiser APAC (1876 HK) and Nongfu Spring (9633 HK) rising by 4.1% and 3.2% respectively[1] - Notable declines were observed in "new consumption" stocks, such as Mixue Group (2097 HK) and Pop Mart (9992 HK), which fell by 5.5% and 7.1% respectively[1] Economic Indicators - The real estate market showed slight improvement, with new home transaction volume in 30 major cities reaching 2.02 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 0.2%[4] - The inventory-to-sales ratio for new homes in major cities decreased to 85.3, down from 93.7 a year ago[6] - Land transaction volume in 100 major cities fell by 35.8% year-on-year, indicating a significant decline in land sales activity[7] Investment Strategy - The market is currently under pressure from both internal and external factors, with a lack of positive catalysts and ongoing uncertainties in U.S.-China trade negotiations[1][11] - Investment strategies should focus on defensive sectors such as telecommunications, utilities, and energy, as well as consumer sectors benefiting from policy support[11]