Core Viewpoint - Geely Automobile expects a significant increase in profit for the quarter ending March 31, 2025, with a projected profit before accounting policy changes of RMB 11.6 billion to 12.3 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 640% to 690% [1] - After accounting policy changes, the profit is expected to be between RMB 5.2 billion and 5.8 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 220% to 270% [1] Group 1 - The company achieved record-high sales in the quarter, driven by strong growth in its new energy business [1] - Product structure optimization and scale effects have significantly enhanced profitability [1] - Foreign exchange fluctuations are expected to result in a net gain of RMB 2 billion to 2.3 billion after tax [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Geely Automobile [5] Core Views - Geely's March sales showed significant growth, with total sales reaching 232,200 units, a year-on-year increase of 53.9% and a month-on-month increase of 13.3%. The sales of new energy vehicles reached 119,700 units, up 167.2% year-on-year [7] - The report forecasts EPS for 2025-2027 to be 1.27, 1.50, and 1.84 RMB respectively, maintaining a target price of 20.55 HKD based on a PE ratio of 15 times [2] - The report highlights the launch of new models and the advancement in intelligent driving technology, which are expected to enhance sales performance [7] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is projected to grow from 179,204 million RMB in 2023 to 414,141 million RMB in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16.5% [4] - Operating profit is expected to increase from 3,806 million RMB in 2023 to 17,395 million RMB in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 23.3% [4] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to rise from 5,308 million RMB in 2023 to 18,526 million RMB in 2027, with a notable increase of 213.3% in 2024 [4] Sales Performance - Geely's brand sales in March reached 191,500 units, a year-on-year increase of 62.0%, with the Galaxy series achieving a remarkable 290.3% growth [7] - The report indicates that Geely's sales growth is expected to outperform the industry average, which saw a 10% increase in March [7] Model Launches and Innovations - The report details the launch of several new models, including the Galaxy series and the Zeekr brand, which are expected to contribute significantly to sales in 2025 [7] - The introduction of the L3 level intelligent driving technology is highlighted as a strategic move to enhance Geely's competitive edge in the market [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Geely Automobile [5] Core Views - Geely's March sales showed significant growth, with total sales reaching 232,200 units, a year-on-year increase of 53.9% and a month-on-month increase of 13.3%. The sales of new energy vehicles reached 119,700 units, up 167.2% year-on-year [7] - The company is expected to launch five new energy models in 2025, enhancing its product matrix across various segments [7] - The target price is set at 20.55 HKD, based on a 15x PE valuation for 2025 [2] Financial Forecasts - The forecasted EPS for 2025-2027 is 1.27, 1.50, and 1.84 CNY respectively, with a target price of 19.05 CNY [2] - Revenue is projected to grow from 179,204 million CNY in 2023 to 414,141 million CNY in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16.5% [4][8] - Operating profit is expected to increase from 3,806 million CNY in 2023 to 17,395 million CNY in 2027, with a significant growth rate of 100.8% in 2024 [4][8] Sales Performance - Geely's brand sales in March reached 191,500 units, a year-on-year increase of 62.0% [7] - The Galaxy series saw a remarkable sales increase of 290.3% year-on-year in March [7] - Lynk & Co's sales also grew by 28.6% year-on-year, with the Lynk 900 model set to launch soon [7] Market Position - Geely's market capitalization is approximately 140,685 million HKD, with a total share capital of 1,007,770,000 shares [5] - The company is positioned within the automotive and components industry in China [5]

2025 年 4 月 8 日 沈嘉婕 | H70455@capital.com.tw | | | --- | --- | | 目标价(港币) | 17.3 | 公司基本资讯 | 产业别 | | 汽车 | | --- | --- | --- | | H 股价(2025/04/07) | | 13.42 | | 恒生指数(2025/04/07) | | 19,828.3 | | 股价 12 个月高/低 | | 18.98/7.47 | | 总发行股数(百万) | | 10,077.39 | | H 股数(百万) | | 10,077.39 | | H 市值(亿元) | | 1,352.39 | | | 浙江吉利控股集 | | | 主要股东 | | 团有限公司 | | | | (39.94%) | | 每股净值(元) | | 8.61 | | 股价/账面净值 | | 1.56 | | 一个月 | 三个月 一年 | | | 股价涨跌(%) -24.86% | -5.36% 49.40% | | 近期评等 | 出刊日期 | 前日收盘 | 评等 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2024-1 ...

2025 年 4 月 8 日 沈嘉婕 | H70455@capital.com.tw | | | --- | --- | | 目标价(港币) | 17.3 | 公司基本资讯 | 产业别 | | 汽车 | | --- | --- | --- | | H 股价(2025/04/07) | | 13.42 | | 恒生指数(2025/04/07) | | 19,828.3 | | 股价 12 个月高/低 | | 18.98/7.47 | | 总发行股数(百万) | | 10,077.39 | | H 股数(百万) | | 10,077.39 | | H 市值(亿元) | | 1,352.39 | | | 浙江吉利控股集 | | | 主要股东 | | 团有限公司 | | | | (39.94%) | | 每股净值(元) | | 8.61 | | 股价/账面净值 | | 1.56 | | 一个月 | 三个月 一年 | | | 股价涨跌(%) -24.86% | -5.36% 49.40% | | 近期评等 | 出刊日期 | 前日收盘 | 评等 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2024-1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company reported a total wholesale sales volume of 232,000 vehicles in March, representing a year-on-year increase of 53.9% and a month-on-month increase of 13.3%. Cumulatively, from January to March, the total wholesale sales reached 704,000 vehicles, up 47.9% year-on-year [2][3] - The sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) in March reached 119,696 units, a significant year-on-year increase of 167.2% and a month-on-month increase of 21.6%, with a penetration rate of 51.6%. For the first quarter, cumulative NEV sales were 339,000 units, up 135.4% year-on-year [2][3] - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 3.58 billion yuan in Q4 2024, exceeding market expectations, with a gross margin of 17.3%, reflecting a gradual realization of profitability improvement driven by new energy [2][4] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In March, the company's total sales were 232,000 vehicles, with the Galaxy brand contributing 90,032 units. The Zeekr brand sold 15,422 units, and Lynk & Co sold 25,293 units [2][3] New Energy Vehicle Strategy - The company plans to launch five new products under the Galaxy brand, including two SUVs and three sedans, with an annual sales target of over 1 million units for the Galaxy brand [2][4] Technological Advancements - The establishment of Zeekr Technology Group aims to enhance strategic focus and integration, targeting the pure electric market above 300,000 yuan, while Lynk & Co will focus on hybrid models priced around 200,000 yuan [3][4] - The company is integrating AI technologies into its vehicles, with plans to fully implement its AI strategy across new models [4] Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 14.02 billion yuan in 2025, 17.78 billion yuan in 2026, and 20.38 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding EPS of 1.39, 1.76, and 2.02 yuan [5][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company reported a total wholesale sales volume of 232,000 vehicles in March, representing a year-on-year increase of 53.9% and a month-on-month increase of 13.3% [1][2] - The cumulative wholesale sales for the first three months reached 704,000 vehicles, up 47.9% year-on-year, with new energy vehicle sales showing significant growth of 135.4% year-on-year [2][4] - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 3.58 billion yuan in Q4 2024, exceeding market expectations, with a gross margin of 17.3% [2][4] - The establishment of Zeekr Technology Group aims to enhance strategic focus and integration, targeting a total sales volume of 710,000 vehicles by 2025 [3][4] - The company is accelerating its AI technology integration, which is expected to boost product sales and reshape its valuation [4] Financial Forecasts - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 14.02 billion yuan, 17.78 billion yuan, and 20.38 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.39, 1.76, and 2.02 yuan [5][8] - Revenue is expected to grow significantly, with forecasts of 364.78 billion yuan in 2025, 439.69 billion yuan in 2026, and 512.83 billion yuan in 2027 [5][8] - The company’s P/E ratios are projected to be 11, 9, and 8 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation trend [5][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Insights - The company has shown steady improvement in gross margin and has fully integrated intelligent driving technology into its vehicles [1] - Revenue and profit forecasts have been adjusted, with EPS estimates for 2025-2027 set at 1.27, 1.50, and 1.84 RMB respectively, maintaining a target price of 20.65 HKD [2] - The company aims for a sales target of 2.71 million vehicles in 2025, representing a 24.5% year-on-year growth [9] Financial Performance Summary - For 2023, the company reported revenue of 179,204 million RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 21.1% [4] - The gross margin for 2024 is projected to be 15.9%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points from the previous year [9] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 is expected to reach 16,632 million RMB, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 213.3% [4][9] - The company plans to distribute a final dividend of 3.3 HKD per 10 shares to all shareholders [9] Sales and Market Position - Total vehicle sales reached 2.1767 million units in 2024, marking a 32.0% increase year-on-year, with new energy vehicle sales growing by 91.9% [9] - The company has set ambitious sales targets for its brands, with specific goals for 吉利 (Geely), 极氪 (Zeekr), and 领克 (Lynk & Co) [9] Future Outlook - The company is set to launch a new cycle of electric vehicles in 2025, with multiple new models planned under its upgraded Galaxy brand [9] - The integration of advanced intelligent driving systems across all new models is expected to enhance the company's competitive edge in the market [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company is expected to see steady improvement in gross margin and has fully integrated intelligent driving technology into its vehicles [1] - The revenue and profit forecasts have been adjusted, with EPS estimates for 2025-2027 set at 1.27, 1.50, and 1.84 RMB respectively, maintaining a target price of 19.05 RMB or 20.65 HKD [2] Financial Performance Summary - For 2023, the company reported revenue of 179,204 million RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 21.1% - The operating profit for 2023 was 3,806 million RMB, reflecting a growth of 4.3% - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 5,308 million RMB, with a slight increase of 0.9% - The gross margin for 2023 was 15.3%, with a net margin of 3.0% and a return on equity (ROE) of 6.6% [4][10][11] Sales and Growth Projections - The company aims for a total sales target of 271,000 vehicles in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 24.5% - The sales targets for the brands are set at 200,000 for Geely, 32,000 for Zeekr, and 39,000 for Lynk & Co, with respective growth rates of 19.8%, 44.1%, and 36.6% [9][10] Brand and Product Development - The company plans to launch five new energy models under the Galaxy brand in 2025, alongside several updated models, all equipped with advanced intelligent driving systems [9][10] - The sales of new energy vehicles reached 88.82 million units in 2024, marking a 91.9% increase, with new energy vehicles accounting for 40.8% of total sales [9] Market Position and Valuation - The company is positioned within the automotive and components industry in China, with a market capitalization of 168,281 million HKD [5] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 27.5 in 2023 to 7.9 by 2027, indicating an attractive valuation [4][11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that fuel vehicles remain a significant part of the market, with fuel vehicles accounting for approximately 45% of the total, while new energy vehicles have surpassed 50% market share [1][2] - Geely plans to continue investing in hybrid power and focus on five core fuel vehicle products: Xingyue L, Xingrui, Bo series, Bin series, and Emgrand series, aiming for a future distribution of 60% new energy vehicles and 40% fuel vehicles [2][3] - The company’s "Intelligent Geely 2025" strategy aligns with its commitment to energy diversification, with projected total sales of 2.177 million vehicles in 2024, a 32% year-on-year increase, where new energy vehicle sales will account for 40.8% [2][3] Group 2 - Geely's international strategy includes developing products that meet standards in 89 countries, achieving breakthroughs in markets like Malaysia, where the Galaxy E5 recorded 580 units sold in a month [3] - The dual strategy of "fuel vehicles + new energy" reflects Geely's understanding of market demand, as fuel vehicles still hold nearly half of the market despite the over 50% penetration of new energy vehicles in China [3] - In 2024, Geely's total revenue is expected to exceed 240 billion yuan, a 34% year-on-year increase, with a net profit of 16.6 billion yuan, representing a 213% increase, attributed to economies of scale [3]