铜铜铜铜 铜铜铜 2 0 2 6 / 1 / 2 7 作者：刘诗瑶 联系人：周小鸥 从业资格证号：F3041949 从业资格证号：F03093454 交易咨询证号：Z0019385 邮箱：zhouxiaoou@zjtfqh.com 邮箱：liushiyao@zjtfqh.com 审核：李文涛 交易咨询证号：Z0015640 我公司依法已获取期货交易咨询业务资格 本周观点 ◼ 上周，铜价探低回升，沪期铜最高触及99500元/吨附近支撑表现良好，LME铜短线支持位在12700美元/吨。本周初来看，有色板块在贵金属点 燃市场情绪下，开始走高，预计铜价短期内有望上探前期历史高位，等待更高的机会出现新一轮上攻。 ◼ 特朗普最新的倡议是他的"和平委员会"——在达沃斯高调发布。该委员会的抱负如今显然已远远超出最初稳定和重建加沙的目标。特朗普 政府正在做的是打造一个联合国以外的替代性论坛。市场更担忧的在于，特朗普政府任期还剩三年，他反复无常的举动引发重大危机的可能 性相当高——从全球经济到国际政治体系，再到美国自身民主与社会的稳定。在这种情况下，对于美国的盟友而言，对美国"去风险化"似 乎是唯一理性的策略。但在一个美国仍然是 ...

Core Viewpoint - China Traditional Chinese Medicine (0570.HK) experienced a decline of 4.57%, closing at HKD 2.09, with a trading volume of HKD 95.08 million and a market capitalization of HKD 10.5 billion. The company announced a projected loss for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025, marking a significant shift from profit to loss, with expected losses between RMB 350 million to RMB 500 million, compared to a profit of RMB 20.77 million in the previous year. Adjusted net profit is anticipated to decrease by 45% to 55%, down from RMB 636 million in the prior year [1][1][1] Financial Performance - The company expects to report a loss for the fiscal year 2025, which would be the first loss since 2013 [1] - The adjusted net profit is projected to decline by 45% to 55%, with the previous year's figure being approximately RMB 636 million [1] Analyst Ratings - Morgan Stanley has updated its risk-reward rating for China Traditional Chinese Medicine, lowering earnings forecasts for 2026 to 2030 by 5% to 12% and reducing the target price from HKD 1.5 to HKD 1.4, maintaining a "Reduce" rating [1][1] - The firm believes there is a 70% to 80% probability that the stock price will decline over the next 30 days, primarily due to the profit warning [1][1] Market Outlook - The company faces challenges due to a shrinking market size, and it has not disclosed specific plans for market expansion through internal resources or acquisitions [1] - The market currently has low visibility regarding the company's performance in 2026, indicating further potential downside for the stock price [1]

摩根士丹利发布研报称，已更新中国中药(00570)风险回报评级，在其2025年初步业绩公告后，基于预 期销售额与毛利率下调，将2026至2030年的盈利预测下调5%至12%。其目标价及悲观假设估值相应下 调7%;目标价由1.5港元下调至1.4港元;评级"减持"。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，摩根士丹利发布研报称，已更新中国中药(00570)风险回报评级，在其2025年初步业 绩公告后，基于预期销售额与毛利率下调，将2026至2030年的盈利预测下调5%至12%。其目标价及悲 观假设估值相应下调7%; 目标价由1.5港元下调至1.4港元;评级"减持"。 ...

近日，中国中药发布公告称，预计2025年本集团将由盈转亏，亏损净额区间预估约为3.5亿元至5亿元， 而上年同期的盈利净额约为2077万元。同时，本期经调整盈利净额预计同比下降45%至55%，上年同期 约为6.36亿元。 董事会表示，上述事项不会对本集团的持续经营能力产生不利影响，并强调所提及的经调整盈利净额并 未在香港财务报告准则中界定。股东及潜在投资者应注意本公告所载信息为初步评估，最终业绩公告预 计于2026年3月底前发布。 亏损的主要原因包括中药配方颗粒业务收入规模及盈利能力下降。此外，本期商誉减值、无形资产减值 及信用减值增加。 （中国中药公告） (编辑：杨燕 林辰) ...

摩根士丹利发表研报指，已更新中国中药风险回报评级，在其2025年初步业绩公告后，基于预期销售额 与毛利率下调，将2026至2030年的盈利预测下调5%至12%，目标价由1.5港元下调至1.4港元，评级"减 持"。 ...

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley believes that the stock price of Chinese traditional medicine will decline in the next 30 days, with a probability estimated between 70% to 80% [1] - The rating is set to "Underweight" with a target price of HKD 1.5 [1] - The expected stock price movement is attributed to a profit warning, as the company anticipates a loss for the fiscal year 2025, marking the first occurrence since 2013 [1] Group 2 - The company is facing challenges due to a shrinking market size, and it has not disclosed specific plans for market expansion through internal resources or acquisitions [1] - As a result, market visibility regarding the company's performance in 2026 is low, leading to expectations of further downside potential for the stock price [1]

中国中药(00570)跌超4%，截至发稿，跌4.57%，报2.09港元，成交额1129.92万港元。 本期由盈转亏主要原因为：中药配方颗粒业务受集采业务占比提高、市场竞争加剧等影响，收入规模及 盈利能力下降;及本期商誉减值、无形资产减值及信用减值增加;及经调整溢利净额为扣除以下各项影响 后的溢利净额：商誉及相关资产组减值;及部分附属公司补缴税款。 消息面上，中国中药公布，预期集团截至2025年12月31日止年度由盈转亏，亏损净额区间预计约为人民 币3.50亿元至5亿元，上年同期溢利净额约为人民币2077万元；及本期经调整溢利净额同比下降45%至 55%，上年同期约为人民币6.355亿元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - China Traditional Chinese Medicine (00570) is expected to report a net loss for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025, with losses projected between RMB 350 million and 500 million, a significant decline from a net profit of RMB 20.77 million in the same period last year [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The adjusted net profit for the current period is expected to decrease by 45% to 55%, compared to approximately RMB 635.5 million in the previous year [1] - The company’s stock has dropped over 4%, currently trading at HKD 2.09, with a trading volume of HKD 11.2992 million [1] Group 2: Reasons for Loss - The transition from profit to loss is primarily attributed to the increased proportion of centralized procurement in the Chinese medicine formula granule business, leading to a decline in revenue scale and profitability [1] - Additional factors contributing to the loss include impairment of goodwill, impairment of intangible assets, and increased credit impairment [1] - The adjusted net profit excludes impacts from goodwill and related asset group impairments, as well as tax payments made by certain subsidiaries [1]

中国中药港股市值112.3亿港元，在中药Ⅱ行业中排名第2。主要指标见下表： 以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成 投资建议。 机构评级详情见下表： 中国中药(00570.HK)发布公告，预期集团截至2025年12月31日止年度由盈转亏，亏损净额区间预计约为 人民币3.50亿元至5亿元，上年同期溢利净额约为人民币2077万元;及本期经调整溢利净额同比下降45% 至55%，上年同期约为人民币6.355亿元。 截至2026年1月27日收盘，中国中药(00570.HK)报收于2.19港元，下跌1.79%，成交量858.2万股，成交额 1883.25万港元。投行对该股的评级以中性(NEUTRAL)为主，近90天内共有1家投行给出中性 (NEUTRAL)评级，近90天的目标均价为2.4港元。中金公司最新一份研报给予中国中药中性(NEUTRAL) 评级，目标价2.4港元。 ...