Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperform" compared to the market [1] Core Insights - New home sales in January showed a narrowing year-on-year decline, while second-hand home sales turned positive year-on-year [1][21] - The central bank has released favorable policies, including lowering the re-lending rate and reducing the down payment ratio for commercial properties [1][4] New Home Sales - In January, the new home sales area in 40 cities decreased by 42.3% month-on-month and by 22.0% year-on-year, with the year-on-year decline narrowing by 10.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [5][14] - First-tier cities saw a year-on-year decline of 14.0%, while second-tier cities experienced an 18.1% decline, and third and fourth-tier cities had a 41.1% decline [15][20] Second-Hand Home Sales - The second-hand home sales area in 18 cities decreased by 2.0% month-on-month but increased by 9.0% year-on-year, with the year-on-year growth rate improving by 41.3 percentage points compared to the previous month [21][25] - All city tiers showed positive year-on-year growth in second-hand home sales, with first-tier cities growing by 15.0% year-on-year [21][30] Inventory and Absorption - As of the end of January, the new home inventory area in 12 cities was 112.91 million square meters, down 0.4% month-on-month and down 6.3% year-on-year, with an overall absorption cycle of 18.1 months [28][29] - The absorption cycle for first-tier cities increased by 4.3 months year-on-year, while third and fourth-tier cities saw a decrease of 8.2 months [28] Land Market - The land market in January saw a transaction area decrease of 76.5% month-on-month and a 20.2% year-on-year decline, with an average land premium rate of 2.87% [1][12] - The average land price per square meter decreased by 36.8% month-on-month and by 20.9% year-on-year [13] Real Estate Companies - The top 100 real estate companies saw a 49.5% year-on-year decline in land acquisition amounts, with a land acquisition intensity of 32% [1][12] - The financing scale for the real estate industry in January was 39.6 billion yuan, down 26% year-on-year but up 7% month-on-month [1][14] Policy Developments - The central bank's policy changes include lowering the re-lending rate to 1.25% and reducing the minimum down payment ratio for commercial properties from 50% to 30% [1][4] - The first batch of commercial real estate REITs has been submitted for approval, with a total expected fundraising of 31.47 billion yuan [1][4] Sector Performance - The real estate sector outperformed the CSI 300 index in January, with an absolute return of 4.3% and a relative return of 2.7% [1][12] - The report anticipates two potential turning points in 2026: a policy turning point around the end of Q1 and a fundamental turning point around Q4 [1][12]

| 股票名称 | 沽空金额↓ | 沽空比率 | | 偏离值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美团-W(03690) | 18.78 亿元 | 24.33% | 5.71% | | | 紫金矿业(02899) | 17.70 亿元 | 35.46% | 18.01% | | | 腾讯控股(00700) | 16.06 亿元 | 7.56% | -1.05% | | | 小米集团-W(01810) | 14.46 亿元 | 27.44% | 8.23% | | | 阿里巴巴-W(09988) | 10.10 亿元 | 11.28% | -1.15% | | | 联想集团(00992) | 9.49 亿元 | 41.95% | 9.80% | | | 泡泡玛特(09992) | 6.39 亿元 | 21.76% | -2.51% | | | 新鸿基地产(00016) | 5.92 亿元 | 52.92% | 17.94% | | | 中国石油化工股份 (00386) | 5.15 亿元 | 36.14% | 5.25% | | | 中国平安(02318) | 4.67 亿元 ...

东吴证券发布研报称，华润万象生活（01209）运营能力行业领先，母公司持续输送高质量项目，盈利 有望持续增长。该行预计公司2025-2027年归母净利润分别为39.03/43.31/48.21亿元，对应现价PE分别为 25.0/22.5/20.2倍；核心净利润分别为38.83/43.11/48.01亿元，同比分别+10.7%/+11.0%/+11.4%，对应现价 PE分别为25.1/22.6/20.3倍。考虑公司在商业运营领域的稀缺性、稳定的业绩增长以及行业内的龙头地 位，维持"买入"评级。 东吴证券主要观点如下： 商管龙头壁垒稳固，确定性与弹性兼具 公司以"商业运营+物业管理"双主航道为核心，覆盖购物中心、写字楼、住宅及城市空间等多业态。在 行业逐步进入存量竞争的过程中，公司凭借品牌资源、招商组织与精细化运营优势，既能保持经营韧 性，也具备利润弹性。2025H1公司营收同比+7.1%，毛利率为37.1%（同比+3.1pct），核心净利润同比 +15.0%，效率持续改善，盈利能力稳步提升。 购物中心领跑行业，高毛利驱动利润弹性 现金充沛分红积极，应收账款结构优质 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 ...

智通财经APP获悉，东吴证券发布研报称，华润万象生活(01209)运营能力行业领先，母公司持续输送高 质量项目，盈利有望持续增长。该行预计公司2025-2027年归母净利润分别为39.03/43.31/48.21亿元，对 应现价PE分别为25.0/22.5/20.2倍；核心净利润分别为38.83/43.11/48.01亿元，同比分别 +10.7%/+11.0%/+11.4%，对应现价PE分别为25.1/22.6/20.3倍。考虑公司在商业运营领域的稀缺性、稳定 的业绩增长以及行业内的龙头地位，维持"买入"评级。 物业航道为公司提供稳健基本盘，城市空间打开增量。2025H1物业航道收入51.56亿元，同比+1.1%， 其中城市空间收入9.49亿元，同比+15.1%。盈利端韧性延续，2025H1物业航道毛利9.68亿元，同比 +0.4%，其中物管服务毛利同比+18.9%、毛利率提升至16.6%，同比+1.4pct，规模扩张叠加提质增效持 续兑现。写字楼业务逆周期拓展，在行业调整中保持经营韧性，2025H1收入10.02亿元，同比+4.5%。 现金充沛分红积极，应收账款结构优质 公司经营回款能力与流动性充裕，为持续 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - The 2026 real estate market is expected to experience a "front low and back high" trend, with two significant turning points anticipated throughout the year [2] - The overall sales volume and price are projected to face pressure in Q1, with potential policy adjustments by the end of Q1 to stabilize the market in Q2 [3][24] - The report emphasizes the need for policy measures to support demand and stabilize investment, particularly focusing on the financial pressures faced by developers [8][19] Sales Forecast - The report forecasts a total sales area of 810 million square meters in 2026, representing a year-on-year decrease of 8% - The average sales price is expected to be 9,144 yuan per square meter, down 4% year-on-year - The total sales amount is projected to be 7.4 trillion yuan, reflecting a 12% decline compared to the previous year [3][22][21] Development Investment - Real estate development investment is anticipated to reach 6.9 trillion yuan in 2026, a decrease of 16% year-on-year, although the rate of decline is expected to narrow compared to 2025 [4][21] - The report indicates that the decline in new construction area is expected to be 18% year-on-year, with a total of 480 million square meters [4][21] Completion Forecast - The report predicts that the completion area will be 490 million square meters in 2026, down 19% year-on-year, continuing the trend of cyclical contraction [5][21] Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the main contradiction in the real estate market has shifted from "shrinking transaction volume" to "continuing price declines," particularly affecting the second-hand housing market [9] - It suggests that the market's recovery will depend on effective policy measures and the stabilization of developer financing [8][19] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on three main lines for investment: 1. Developers with stable fundamentals and high market share in first and second-tier cities 2. Smaller developers showing significant breakthroughs in sales and land acquisition 3. Commercial real estate companies exploring new operational models in the new consumption era [9][21]

证券研究报告·海外公司深度·地产(HS) 华润万象生活（01209.HK） 商管价值持续释放，高分红护航长期成长 2026 年 02 月 11 日 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 14,767 | 17,043 | 17,903 | 19,265 | 20,793 | | 同比(%) | 22.89 | 15.41 | 5.05 | 7.60 | 7.93 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 2,929 | 3,629 | 3,903 | 4,331 | 4,821 | | 同比(%) | 32.76 | 23.92 | 7.53 | 10.97 | 11.32 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 1.28 | 1.59 | 1.71 | 1.90 | 2.11 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 33.32 | 26.89 | 25.01 | 22.54 | 20.25 | [Table_T ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate sector as "Outperform" [6] Core Insights - The real estate market is experiencing significant year-on-year growth due to a low base from the previous year, particularly during the Spring Festival period, but there is a month-on-month decline in transactions [1][6] - The Shanghai pilot program for purchasing second-hand homes for rental housing is expected to positively influence market expectations and confidence if implemented effectively [2][6] - The new housing transaction area has shifted from positive to negative month-on-month, with a narrowing year-on-year growth rate [6][17] - The inventory of new homes is decreasing both month-on-month and year-on-year, while the de-stocking cycle has decreased month-on-month but increased year-on-year [6][46] Summary by Sections New Housing Market Tracking - In the week of January 31 to February 6, 2026, new housing transaction volume in 40 cities was 17,000 units, a month-on-month decrease of 4.3% and a year-on-year increase of 225.1% [18][19] - The new housing transaction area was 163.1 million square meters, with a month-on-month decline of 9.6% and a year-on-year increase of 203.0% [18][27] - The transaction volume and area for first, second, and third/fourth-tier cities showed varying month-on-month and year-on-year growth rates [20][21][22] Second-Hand Housing Market Tracking - The transaction area for second-hand homes in 18 cities was 174.1 million square meters, with a month-on-month decline of 4.7% and a year-on-year increase of 349.7% [6][19] - The month-on-month decline in transaction volume for second-hand homes is more pronounced in first-tier cities compared to second and third/fourth-tier cities [6][19] Inventory and De-stocking Cycle - The inventory of new homes in 12 cities was 11,235 million square meters, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.7% and a year-on-year decrease of 6.4% [46][47] - The de-stocking cycle for new homes is 17.4 months, showing a month-on-month decrease but a year-on-year increase [46][47] Land Market Tracking - The total area of land transactions across 100 cities was 1,188.4 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 74.1% and a year-on-year increase of 582.1% [6][14] - The average land price per square meter decreased month-on-month and year-on-year, indicating a cooling in land prices [6][14] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with stable fundamentals in core cities, those that have made significant breakthroughs in sales and land acquisition, and commercial real estate companies exploring new consumption scenarios [7][6]

Market Performance - The real estate sector (CITIC) had a weekly performance of 0.0%, while the CSI 300 and Wind All A indices decreased by -1.3% and -1.5% respectively, resulting in excess returns of 1.3% and 1.4%[5] - Among 29 CITIC industry sectors, real estate ranked 15th in performance[5] New Housing Market - In the week from January 31 to February 6, 2026, the new housing transaction area in 36 cities was 1.392 million square meters, down 2.9% week-on-week but up 175.7% year-on-year[10] - Cumulative transactions from February 1 to February 6 reached 1.204 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 257.9%[10] - Year-to-date transactions as of February 6 totaled 6.798 million square meters, down 16.2% year-on-year[10] Second-Hand Housing Market - For the same week, the transaction area for second-hand housing in 15 cities was 1.644 million square meters, down 3.6% week-on-week but up 245.8% year-on-year[16] - Cumulative transactions from February 1 to February 6 were 1.535 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 423.1%[16] - Year-to-date transactions as of February 6 totaled 8.383 million square meters, up 37.1% year-on-year[16] Inventory and Depletion Cycle - Cumulative new housing inventory in 13 cities was 77.165 million square meters, down 0.7% week-on-week and down 4.6% year-on-year[24] - The new housing depletion cycle for these cities is 22.9 months, with a week-on-week change of -0.1 months and a year-on-year change of +6.2 months[24] Land Market - The land transaction area from February 2 to February 8 was 1.1863 million square meters, down 44.9% week-on-week and down 36.0% year-on-year[43] - The average land price was 1,552 RMB per square meter, up 42.8% week-on-week and up 71.5% year-on-year[43] - Year-to-date land transactions as of February 8 totaled 10.556 million square meters, down 15.8% year-on-year[43] Investment Recommendations - Recommended mainland developers include A-shares: Binhai Group, China Merchants Shekou; Hong Kong stocks: China Overseas Development, Greentown China, China Resources Land, Jianfa International Group[9] - For light asset operation companies, recommended property management companies include Greentown Service and commercial management companies like China Resources Vientiane Life[9] Risk Factors - Risks include potential delays in the relaxation of real estate control policies, continued industry downturns, and ongoing credit risks leading to liquidity deterioration[5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [4] Core Insights - The report highlights the significance of Shanghai's new policy to acquire second-hand housing for affordable rental housing, indicating a strong signal in a declining market. The policy aims to link demand for affordable housing with improvement needs, potentially activating the market by directing purchasing power to higher-priced new and second-hand homes [11][12] - The report emphasizes that the real estate sector serves as an early economic indicator, suggesting that investing in real estate is akin to investing in economic trends. The competitive landscape is expected to improve, benefiting leading state-owned enterprises and quality developers [4] - The report suggests focusing on first-tier cities and select second- and third-tier cities, as this combination has shown better performance during market rebounds [4] Summary by Sections 1. Shanghai's Housing Acquisition Policy - Shanghai has initiated a program to acquire second-hand housing for affordable rental purposes, with pilot areas including Pudong, Jing'an, and Xuhui, each having distinct acquisition criteria and models [11] - The policy aims to match housing types with talent needs, focusing on low-priced, small-sized properties to stimulate market activity [12] 2. Market Review - The report notes that the real estate index has shown minimal change, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.34 percentage points. A total of 73 stocks in the real estate sector increased in value, while 40 stocks decreased [15] - The top-performing stocks included Jinglan Technology and Qianjing Garden, with significant weekly gains [21] 3. New and Second-Hand Housing Transactions - In the week leading up to February 6, new housing transactions in 30 cities totaled 131.2 million square meters, a 5.2% decrease from the previous week but a 138.2% increase year-on-year. First-tier cities saw a 4.0% increase week-on-week [26] - Second-hand housing transactions in 15 sample cities totaled 204.5 million square meters, reflecting a 3.5% decrease week-on-week but a 717.5% increase year-on-year [35]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors, highlighting the recovery potential of quality real estate companies and commercial real estate [2][31]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the real estate sector is approaching a bottom in its fundamentals after a deep adjustment, with recent central government policies aimed at stabilizing the market. The report emphasizes the importance of quality real estate companies, predicting that their profit recovery will occur sooner and be more resilient [2][31]. - The report recommends several quality real estate companies and commercial real estate firms, including Jianfa International, Binjiang Group, Greentown China, China Jinmao, and Poly Development, as well as commercial real estate firms like New City Holdings and China Resources Land [2][31]. Industry Data Summary New Home Transactions - In the week of January 31 to February 6, 2026, new home transactions in 34 key cities totaled 1.974 million square meters, a week-on-week decrease of 6.9%. The transaction volume in first and second-tier cities decreased by 3.1%, while third and fourth-tier cities saw a significant drop of 39.4% [3][4]. - Year-on-year, new home transactions in February increased by 327.2%, with first and second-tier cities up by 347.8% and third and fourth-tier cities up by 168.9% [4][10]. Second-Hand Home Transactions - In the same week, second-hand home transactions in 13 key cities totaled 1.198 million square meters, also down by 6.9% week-on-week. However, year-to-date transactions showed a 27.4% increase compared to the previous year [10][31]. Inventory and Supply - The report notes that 15 cities had a total of 290,000 square meters of new supply, with a sales-to-supply ratio of 2.62 times. The total available residential area in these cities was 88.525 million square meters, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.52% [21][31]. Policy and News Tracking - The report highlights significant policy developments, including the acceleration of commercial real estate REITs applications, with over 10 applications submitted to exchanges as of February 6, 2026. Additionally, Shanghai is advancing the acquisition of second-hand homes for rental housing, with pilot areas identified [31][32]. - Various regions, including Tianjin, Sichuan, and Hainan, have adjusted the minimum down payment ratio for commercial property loans to no less than 30% [31][32].