Summary of Conference Call Notes Company and Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the tea beverage industry, specifically the company "Guming" (古茗) and its market position within the sector. The tea beverage industry is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 15% over the next five years due to changes in consumer preferences and market dynamics [1][2]. Key Insights and Arguments Industry Growth and Market Dynamics - The tea beverage industry is experiencing a shift towards premiumization, with a notable distinction between low-priced (below 10 RMB) and mid-priced (above 10 RMB) segments. The low-priced segment is dominated by Guming, which holds nearly 60% market share in this category [1][2]. - The mid-priced segment faces intense competition, requiring brands to possess strong management capabilities and a robust supply chain to maintain long-term competitiveness [2]. Guming's Business Model and Growth Strategy - Guming has established a significant presence with over 13,000 stores and aims to reach 20,000 by 2027, with a long-term target of approximately 40,000 stores in China [3][7]. - The company has undergone three phases of development: establishing its business model (2010-2017), expanding through regional strategies (2019-2021), and accelerating growth post-IPO [3][6]. - Guming's revenue model primarily relies on a franchise system, generating income from supply chain services and initial franchise fees. The company reported a GMV of 106 billion RMB in 2021, projected to reach 340 billion RMB in 2025, with a CAGR of approximately 34% [7][8]. Financial Performance and Projections - Guming's revenue for 2025 is expected to reach 13.6 billion RMB, with a year-over-year growth rate of around 55%. The adjusted net profit is projected to be between 2.4 billion and 2.5 billion RMB, reflecting a 60% increase [8][26]. - The company has maintained a strong cash flow due to its franchise model, allowing for significant reinvestment in growth and expansion [6][11]. Competitive Advantages - Guming's competitive edge lies in its supply chain efficiency, product innovation, and strong brand loyalty. The company has a high customer retention rate, with a quarterly active membership of approximately 39.5 million, significantly higher than competitors [19][20]. - The company has a low closure rate of 4-6% compared to competitors, indicating strong franchisee satisfaction and operational stability [21]. Future Growth Opportunities - Guming plans to expand its product offerings beyond tea to include coffee and breakfast items, aiming to enhance customer engagement and increase sales per store [22][23]. - The company is focusing on penetrating underrepresented markets, with significant potential for growth in northern China, where it currently has limited presence [24][25]. Other Important Insights - Guming's management team is highly involved in operations, with a concentrated ownership structure that aligns the interests of key stakeholders [8][10]. - The company’s pricing strategy aims to balance affordability for consumers while ensuring reasonable returns for franchisees, which is crucial for sustaining growth in a competitive market [15][16]. - The upcoming conference call will delve deeper into Guming's product, supply chain, and management advantages, as well as comparisons with competitors [27]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting Guming's strategic positioning, financial outlook, and competitive landscape within the tea beverage industry.

智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通发布研报称，2月6日，阿里千问App上线30亿元红包补贴项目。千问App 活动页面显示，第一波免单活动时间为2月6日至12日，第二波将从2月13日开始。据千问提供的数据， 活动上线不到3小时，用户下单的奶茶已经超过100万单。活动上线仅9个小时，"千问春节30亿大免 单"活动订单量已超过1000万单。当前现制饮品外卖补贴持续，预计春节高景气度；同时现制饮品行业 价格战趋缓，竞争格局优化。 国泰海通主要观点如下： 据千问提供的数据，活动上线不到3小时，用户下单的奶茶已经超过100万单。活动上线仅9个小时，"千 问春节30亿大免单"活动订单量已超过1000万单。 行业价格战趋缓，茶饮竞争格局改善 库迪提价：从2026年2月1日开始，库迪咖啡仅在特价专区保留3-7款产品延续该低价，其余产品恢复 11.9-16.9元的常规售价，部分核心单品涨幅30%-60%。同时，库迪还调整了其他配套活动，例如新店首 月券从6.9元涨至8.8元，邀新奖励中的新用户礼券从8.8元提至9.9元，仅保留外卖平台补贴联动。 茶饮格局改善：根据窄门餐眼数据，截止2026年1月12日，现制茶饮最新门店数39.9万家， ...

视频｜王学权 2月6日，阿里千问上线"春节30亿免单"，发放奶茶免单卡，引发全网关注。截至当日上线9小时，订单量已飙升至1000万单。6日晚上，千问 官方微博发文："今天累垮了，球球大家明天再来。" 2月7日，千问宣布，将免单卡有效期从2月23日延长至2月28日。"今天很多朋友抢到的免单卡还没来得及用，担心后面用不了。我们决定：将 免单卡有效期从2月23日延长至2月28日，为大家带来更从容的下单体验！以及，再次提示：免单卡不仅可以买奶茶，也可以买早餐、中餐、 鸡蛋、青菜….还能攒着买年货！" 据《科创板日报》报道，记者在苏州吴江区一家蜜雪冰城门店看到，4名工作人员不停忙碌，吧台上堆积着四五十杯待取奶茶，3名穿着美团 骑手服排队等候。 "今天都要疯了，单子根本就做不完。"该门店一工作人员表示，其本来是休息的，早上开始单子突然爆了，店长就临时让他来加班，目前已 经做了800多杯，比平时多了3倍，更有消费者一次性下单20杯，这样的订单密度远超去年外卖大战时期。 终端的混乱并非个例，全国多地茶饮门店均出现点单系统瘫痪、订单积压的情况，不少门店被迫挂出"店铺已休息"的招牌，集中处理现有订 单。 这场突如其来的奶茶雨不仅 ...

证券研究报告 古茗 (1364 HK) 港股通 再论"补贴潮"后古茗的长期成长 2026 年 2 月 06 日│中国香港 餐饮 得益于外卖平台补贴，2025 年现制饮品头部品牌扩张再提速，驱动行业集 中度上行。古茗跨越万店门槛后，未来成长空间应如何展望？我们认为公司 门店规模与单店店效均有提升空间。门店角度，基于公司"洋葱圈"式门店 扩张路径及扎实供应链功底，当前万店仅是新起点，未来优势区域加密、外 圈新区同步拓展皆有空间，远期门店空间有望达 3.5 万家。品类角度，古茗 2025 年以来陆续落地咖啡、糖水、HPP 果汁等新品类、推出 6.0 版本大店， 利好堂食占比提升，拓宽经营时段及客群、复用供应链资源，或带动单店店 效持续上行。展望长期，现饮品类边界正不断拓宽，古茗"新鲜"品牌心智 稳固，门店拓展路径清晰、品类间协同效应有望逐步释放，成长空间及经营 韧性兼具。维持"买入"评级。 中远期门店空间或锚定 3.5 万家 "洋葱圈"式区域渗透扩张路径独特且表现稳健，我们通过自下而上的区域 密度推演与自上而下的供需成长两大视角，测算公司中长期门店空间有望触 达 3.5 万家：1）区域门店密度视角，基于公司在已有优 ...

Group 1 - Lee & Man Paper (02314) has seen its stock price rise by over 30% year-to-date, with expected profits of approximately HKD 1.88 billion to HKD 2.00 billion in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 38% to 47% due to increased marginal profits [1] - Soundon Technology (02495) shares rose over 8.8% after winning a contract worth nearly RMB 300 million for an AI project in Sichuan province [1] - Zhongxin Innovation (03931) stock increased by over 3.8%, with a reported 630% year-on-year growth in commercial battery deliveries in January 2026, indicating a strong market strategy and capacity layout [1] Group 2 - Tea stocks experienced a rise, with Gu Ming (01364) up 4.12%, Cha Bai Dao (02555) up 3.74%, and others benefiting from a promotional campaign offering free milk tea at over 300,000 stores nationwide [2] - Innovent Biologics (09969) shares surged over 11% after announcing expected revenues of RMB 2.37 billion in 2025, a 134% increase, and a projected net profit of around RMB 630 million [2] - Jun Da Holdings (02865) rebounded over 4.6% following news of the U.S. Federal Communications Commission accepting SpaceX's data center application [2] Group 3 - Li Auto-W (02015) shares rose over 5.3% as the CEO teased the new Li L9 model, emphasizing the importance of AI in enhancing vehicle value [3] - JX International Resources (03858) saw a stock increase of over 4.6% as tungsten prices reached a recent high of CNY 1,545,000 per ton, up CNY 25,000 from the previous trading day [3] - Nine Dragons Paper (02689) shares increased by over 5.7% after announcing a profit forecast for FY26H1 of CNY 2.15 billion to CNY 2.25 billion, a year-on-year growth of 216% to 231% [3] Group 4 - Long Resources (01712) stock surged over 35%, reaching a historical high, with expected after-tax profits of AUD 58 million to AUD 62 million for the year ending December 31, 2025, a significant increase from AUD 12.9 million in the previous year [4] Group 5 - Forgent Power Solutions (FPS.US) debuted on the U.S. stock market with a closing increase of 7.41%, focusing on power solutions for data centers [5] - Bob's Discount Furniture (BOBS.US) also entered the market, with a slight increase of 0.12%, managing 206 showrooms across 26 states and projecting revenues of USD 2.32 billion for FY2025 [5] Group 6 - Eikon Therapeutics (EIKN.US) fell over 16.67% on its Nasdaq debut, focusing on cancer therapies with a candidate drug in mid-stage trials [6] - Cryptocurrency stocks saw significant declines, with Hut 8 (HUT.US) down 17.89% and others following suit amid a Bitcoin sell-off, which dropped nearly 10% [6] Group 7 - Major U.S. indices opened lower, with the Nasdaq down 1.6%, and notable tech stocks like Amazon (AMZN.US) and Tesla (TSLA.US) also declining [7] - Estée Lauder (EL.US) dropped nearly 19.19% despite meeting sales expectations, reflecting market volatility [7] Group 8 - NIO (NIO.US) shares rose 5.86% after announcing an expected adjusted operating profit of between RMB 700 million and RMB 1.2 billion for Q4 2025, marking its first quarterly adjusted operating profit [8] - Hims & Hers Health (HIMS.US) initially surged nearly 14% before closing down 3.77%, launching a new generic medication at a competitive price [9] - Qualcomm (QCOM.US) fell 8.46% amid concerns over weak earnings forecasts related to chip shortages affecting smartphone demand [9]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index fell by 1.13%, down 304 points, closing at 26,580 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index decreased by 0.47% [1] - Three new stocks were listed: Dazhu CNC (03200) rose by 18%, Muyuan Foods (02714) increased by 4.72%, and Zhuozheng Medical (02677) surged by 34% [1] - Zhongxin Hang (03931) saw a 3.83% increase, with a 630% year-on-year growth in commercial battery deliveries and plans for full circulation of H-shares [1] - Long Resources (01712) experienced a 30% intraday surge, with expected net profit growth of up to 3.8 times year-on-year [1] - Changfei Optical Fiber (06869) rose over 10%, with institutions optimistic about fiber optic manufacturers benefiting from price increases [1] - Nuo Cheng Jianhua (09969) increased by over 11%, achieving profitability for the first time due to the volume of Obutinin and growth in BD revenue [1] - Nine Dragons Paper (02689) rose over 5%, benefiting from improved self-sufficiency in wood pulp and favorable industry supply-demand dynamics [1] - Jiaxin International Resources (03858) increased by over 5%, supported by supply contraction driving up tungsten prices [1] Group 2 - Fuhong Hanlin (02696) rose over 5% after licensing rights to Hanshuo in Japan to Eizai for a total transaction amount of approximately $388 million [2] Group 3 - Tongda Group (00698) increased by over 6%, expecting to turn a profit with a maximum earnings forecast of 125 million HKD for the previous year [3] - NIO-SW (09866) rose over 5%, marking its first quarterly profit with an expected adjusted operating profit of up to 1.2 billion CNY for the last quarter [3] - Cryptocurrency ETFs and related stocks continued to decline, with Bitcoin dropping below $65,000 amid ongoing sell-offs in the crypto market [3]

对投资者来说，这波"AI送奶茶"带来的行情更像是一个情绪与主题共振的窗口：春节旺季、大厂补贴、 AI叙事叠加消费板块估值修复，短期容易放大股价弹性。中期维度，板块大概率会持续分化——效率 高、模型稳、能持续开高质量门店的公司，更有希望享受估值溢价。 与往年互联网巨头聚焦支付红包不同，2026年春节"AI+消费"成为巨头角力新焦点。阿里此次投入30亿 元资源，以"免单+生态联动"模式切入高频茶饮场景，用户不仅可兑换奶茶，还能用于淘宝年货采购、 外卖点餐等场景，形成消费闭环。此举旨在降低AI使用门槛，通过高频刚需场景培养用户习惯，为后 续商业化铺路。 拉长一点看，新茶饮赛道正在从"开店竞赛"走向"效率和结构竞争"。门店数仍是硬指标，但资本市场更 看重单店盈利、供应链掌控力、品牌心智和出海节奏。蜜雪冰城的全球采购网络和下沉市场密度，古茗 的区域加密与高频复购，茶百道的产品迭代与下线市场拓展，奈雪的茶的直营与空间体验，各有路径。 早盘，港股茶饮板块集体走强，古茗集团（01364.HK）盘中涨幅超5%，股价创上市以来新高，沪上阿 姨（02589.HK）、蜜雪集团（02097.HK）等跟涨。 这一行情的直接催化剂，源于阿 ...

银河证券此前指，考虑阿里此前官宣2026年将为争夺即时零售市场份额继续投入大量资源，预计外卖补 贴退坡幅度将好于市场预期。国金证券认为，在行业集中度持续提升、同质化竞争加剧的趋势下，具备 供应链规模化、能够精准快速捕捉用户需求的产品优势、品牌优势的头部连锁品牌，在拓店和单店运营 中将占据明显优势。 茶饮股震荡走高，截至发稿，古茗(01364)涨5.48%，报31.2港元；茶百道(02555)涨3.9%，报6.66港元； 沪上阿姨(02589)涨2.42%，报88.7港元；奈雪的茶(02150)涨0.93%，报1.09港元。 消息面上，今日，"千问春节请客计划"正式上线，首轮免单活动送奶茶。根据千问官方介绍，首轮免单 卡可在全国30多万家奶茶店使用，奶茶店品牌包括喜茶、奈雪、瑞幸、一点点、霸王茶姬和古茗等。据 悉，此次千问30亿春节请客计划，在阿里历史上的春节活动中投入最大，在今年春节大厂AI大战中投 入金额也最高。数据显示，活动上线不到3小时，通过千问App下单的奶茶已超过100万单。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The tea beverage stocks are experiencing a notable increase, driven by the launch of the "Qianwen Spring Festival Treat Plan," which offers free milk tea and is expected to significantly boost sales in the sector [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Gu Ming (01364) shares rose by 5.48%, reaching HKD 31.2 [1] - Cha Bai Dao (02555) shares increased by 3.9%, reaching HKD 6.66 [1] - Hu Shang A Yi (02589) shares grew by 2.42%, reaching HKD 88.7 [1] - Nai Xue's Tea (02150) shares saw a slight increase of 0.93%, reaching HKD 1.09 [1] Group 2: Market Activity - The "Qianwen Spring Festival Treat Plan" has launched with a first round of free milk tea, applicable at over 300,000 tea shops nationwide, including brands like Heytea, Nai Xue, Luckin, and Gu Ming [1] - The plan represents the largest investment in Alibaba's history for a Spring Festival activity, with a total budget of 3 billion [1] - Within three hours of the launch, over 1 million milk tea orders were placed through the Qianwen App [1] Group 3: Industry Insights - Galaxy Securities anticipates that Alibaba will continue to invest heavily in the instant retail market, predicting that the decline in delivery subsidies will be less severe than market expectations [1] - Guo Jin Securities notes that leading chain brands with advantages in supply chain scalability and the ability to quickly capture user demand will have a significant edge in store expansion and single-store operations amid increasing industry concentration and intensified competition [1]

港股新消费概念股局部走强，沪上阿姨(02589.HK)涨超4%，蔚来-SW(09866.HK)、卫龙(09985.HK)、茶 百道(02555.HK)、古茗(01364.HK)等个股跟涨。 ...