Industry Overview - On February 17, Tencent Music's stock (TME.N) fell by 3.28%, closing at $15.33, influenced by overall market conditions and concerns regarding AI technology potentially disrupting traditional business models [1] - The Nasdaq index experienced a cumulative decline of 2.96% over the past five days, with the internet information services sector dropping by 0.93% on the same day [1] Market and Technical Analysis - Tencent Music's trading volume on February 17 was 1.298 million shares, a decrease compared to previous trading days, with a volume ratio of only 0.47, indicating low trading activity [2] - Technical indicators show that the stock price has fallen below the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, and the MACD histogram has turned negative, suggesting weak short-term momentum [2] Company Fundamentals - Although Tencent Music did not release new announcements on February 17, recent industry focus on AI large model open-source innovations may divert market attention from traditional entertainment platforms [3] - The company's Q3 2025 financial report indicated that the fan economy is driving revenue growth, providing some fundamental support [3]

Group 1 - The Livermore Chinese Concept Stock Index closed down 0.27% at 10,125.69 points on February 14, with mixed performance among constituent stocks [1] - Tencent Music led the gains, rising over 4%, followed by Yum China with an increase of more than 3%. In contrast, New Oriental and Alibaba both fell over 2%, while Li Auto, JD.com, and iQIYI saw declines of more than 1% [1] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index (HXC) also experienced a slight decline of 0.1% on the same day [1] Group 2 - Notable movements included Pinduoduo with a minor increase of 0.06%, NetEase rising 2.06%, XPeng up 1.38%, and Bilibili gaining 1.02%. Conversely, Baidu fell by 0.99%, Beike dropped 1.07%, and Huazhu Group decreased by 1.48% [1] - The Livermore Chinese Concept Stock Index had previously experienced a significant decline of 2.64% in the prior trading session, closing at 10,152.05 points. The drop on February 14 was less severe, indicating a shift from a broad decline to a more mixed performance among individual stocks [1]

Core Viewpoint - The performance of Chinese concept stocks varied on February 14, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index (HXC) closing down by 0.1% [1][7]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Among the rising stocks, Pinduoduo increased by 0.06%, NetEase by 2.06%, and Tencent Music by 4.52% [1][7]. - Among the declining stocks, Alibaba fell by 2.05%, JD.com by 1.38%, and Ideal Auto by 1.81% [1][7]. - The US stock market closed mixed on Friday, with the Dow Jones gaining 48.95 points (0.10%) and the Nasdaq dropping 50.48 points (0.22%) [1][7]. Group 2: Market Trends - All three major US stock indices recorded declines for the week, with the Dow down 1.23%, Nasdaq down 2.1%, and S&P 500 down 1.39% [1][7]. - The market continues to assess the impact of artificial intelligence development on industries such as logistics, real estate, and software [1][7]. - The US core CPI for January reached a nearly five-year low [1][7].

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed down by 1.72% [1] - The Tech Index fell by 0.9% [1] Company-Specific Movements - Tencent Music (01698.HK) experienced a decline of over 9% [1] - Zijin Mining (02899.HK) dropped by more than 7% [1] - China Hongqiao (01378.HK) and China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (00857.HK) both fell by over 5% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Tencent Music's stock performance has recently underperformed the market, with a decline of 5.80% in its Hong Kong shares from January 2 to February 12, 2026, indicating weak market momentum [1] Stock Performance - As of February 12, 2026, Tencent Music's U.S. stock was priced at $15.14, down 10.63% in a single day, while its Hong Kong stock was at HKD 65.00, down 2.26%. During the same period, the Nasdaq index fell by 2.24% and the Hang Seng index decreased by 0.86% [2] Recent Events - Increased competition is evident as ByteDance's "Qishui Music" has rapidly grown to 140 million monthly active users, putting pressure on the industry landscape. Concurrently, Tencent Music's user growth has peaked, leading management to lower its net user growth guidance [3] Operational Status - The company's social entertainment service revenue continues to decline, with a 2.7% year-over-year drop in Q3 2025. Monthly active users have plummeted by 31.6%. The growth in online music revenue is primarily driven by an increase in average revenue per paying user, despite a 4.3% year-over-year decline in music monthly active users [4] Institutional Perspectives - There is a divergence in institutional views. Daiwa upgraded its rating to "Buy" in January 2026 but lowered its target price. Citibank maintained a "Buy" rating in February 2026, believing the company's current valuation is undervalued and optimistic about new business potential [5] Business Development - The company is actively expanding into new businesses such as offline performances, artist merchandise, and AI social products. In Q3 2025, non-subscription revenue surged over 50% year-over-year, although these businesses have lower gross margins, resulting in a quarter-over-quarter decline in overall gross margin [6]

Group 1 - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index (HXC) fell by 3% on February 13, indicating a general decline in popular Chinese concept stocks [1][8] - Among the stocks that rose, Chunghwa Telecom increased by 0.82% and Huazhu Hotels Group rose by 0.23% [2][8] - Notable declines included TSMC down 1.60%, Alibaba down 3.40%, Pinduoduo down 4.16%, and Baidu down 4.64% [2][8] Group 2 - The US stock market closed lower on Thursday, with technology stocks leading the decline; the Nasdaq dropped over 2% [2][8] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 669.42 points, a decrease of 1.34%, closing at 49,451.98 points [2][8] - The S&P 500 index declined for the third consecutive trading day, dropping by 108.71 points or 1.57%, to close at 6,832.76 points [2][8] Group 3 - The list of top gainers included companies like Wu Xin Holdings, which surged by 36.29%, and Jiuzi New Energy, which rose by 31.93% [3][9] - Conversely, significant losers included Tencent Music down 10.57% and GMM down 17.43% [6][11]

Group 1 - Major tech stocks in Hong Kong experienced a decline, with notable drops of approximately 4% for companies such as NetEase, Meituan, Bilibili, and Trip.com, while Baidu and Tencent fell over 3% [1][2] - The Hang Seng Index saw a broader market downturn, with a decline of 1% and the Hang Seng Tech Index dropping by 1.87% [2] - Specific stock performance included Kingdee International down by 4.98%, NetEase down by 4.15%, and Meituan down by 4.11%, among others [3]

Core Insights - Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME) demonstrates robust financial performance and deepens strategic layout while facing new market competition and technological challenges [1] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Tencent Music reported total revenue of 8.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.6%, with adjusted net profit rising 27.7% to 2.48 billion yuan [2] - Online music service revenue grew by 27.2%, with the number of paying users increasing by 1.3 million quarter-on-quarter to 126 million [2] - Non-subscription revenue surged by 50.3%, becoming a highlight of growth [2] - Institutions expect continued growth in Non-IFRS net profit for 2025 and 2026, with an optimistic outlook on gross margin trends [2] Industry and Risk Analysis - ByteDance's "Tomato Music" is rapidly increasing its monthly active users, complementing "Soda Music," which may intensify competition in the music streaming market [3] - Companies like Kunlun Wanwei (300418) are adopting free strategies in the AI music sector to expand their market presence, circumventing domestic copyright barriers, posing long-term challenges to the industry landscape [3] - Tencent Music is also investing in AI to enhance its services [3] Strategic Advancement - The company adheres to a "one body, two wings" strategy, deepening collaborations with global record companies and expanding its own IP matrix while making long-term investments in offline performances [4] - Tencent Music has partnered with Billboard data provider Luminate to incorporate Chinese music consumption data into international ranking systems, aiming to enhance its global content influence [4] Industry Status - The rapid growth of paid users in music live streaming indicates a shift towards professionalization and interactivity in the industry, which may indirectly affect Tencent Music's competitive strategy in social entertainment [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.31%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 0.9% [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Bilibili saw an increase of over 5% in its stock price [1] - Tencent Music, Xiaomi Group, and Kingdee International each rose by over 4% [1] - BYD Company, WuXi Biologics, and New Oriental Education experienced gains of over 3% [1] Group 2: Company Declines - Pop Mart International fell by over 5% [1] - China Life Insurance declined by nearly 4% [1]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index closed up 0.31%, while the Tech Index rose by 0.9% [1] - Bilibili (09626.HK) and Tencent Music (01698.HK) both increased by over 4.5% [1] - Xiaomi Group (01810.HK) and Kingdee International (00268.HK) saw gains of over 4% [1] Group 2 - Pop Mart (09992.HK) experienced a decline of over 5% [1]