丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨专题报告丨纺织品、服装与奢侈品 [Table_Title] 掘金埃及系列一：埃及何以成为纺企投资新热 土？ 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 埃及坐拥欧美非的多重关税红利、本土极具吸引力的产业扶持政策，具备充沛且廉价的劳动力 资源与高性价比的建厂成本，再则本身处于亚非欧交界的核心区位、享受苏伊士运河的物流便 利，纺织产业实现从优质原料自给到成熟成衣制造的全产业链集群发展，多重优势叠加下成为 众多中资纺企全球化产能布局的重要增量。而相应布局埃及的纺企若能在当地实现成熟的产能 布局，将有望在扩张规模上限的同时与下游品牌客户实现更深度的绑定，强化供应链能力与中 长期竞争力。 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 纺织品、服装与奢侈品 cjzqdt11111 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 于旭辉 魏杏梓 SAC：S0490518020002 SAC：S0490524020003 SFC：BUU942 [Table_Title 掘金埃及系列一：埃及何以成为纺企投资新热 2] 土？ [Table_Summary2 ...

研究员：糜韩杰/董建芳 核心观点： 埃及产能具备对欧美出口0%关税+快反等诸多优势，公司全球产能布局开新章。我们认为公司布局埃及 产能具备诸多优势，（1）快反能力提升：近年来埃及基础设施改善，且地理位置靠近欧洲，有利于公 司提升海外供应链交付能力，更好满足欧洲快反订单需求；（2）对欧美出口0%关税：2024 年公司欧 洲+北美收入占比约57%，目前埃及出口欧洲（以法国为例）关税为0%（以HS 编码6110.19.9010的女装 为例），此外在合格工业区内，若埃及出口产品价值中有10.5%的以色列制造成分，且以色列和埃及成 分合计超过35%，则埃及服装出口美国0%关税。（3）其他优惠：公司可利用埃及各类税收和非税收优 惠等，降低生产成本。 机构：广发证券 盈利预测与投资建议。预计公司2025-2027 年EPS 分别为0.08/0.09/0.11 美元/股。参考可比公司估值，考 虑到公司成长动能和经营韧性较强，客户份额提升空间较大，给予2026 年12 倍PE，对应合理价值8.66 港元/股，维持"买入"评级。 公司签订埃及土地收购协议，埃及产能项目正式落地。根据公司公告（2026.1.20），公司于埃及时间 ...

[Table_Page] 公告点评|耐用消费品与服装 证券研究报告 | [Table_Title] 【 广 发 纺 服 & | 海 外 】 晶 苑 国 际 | | --- | --- | | （02232.HK） | | 签订埃及土地收购协议扩产能，全球产能布局开新篇章 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 盈利预测：（本文如无特殊说明，货币单位均为美元，港元对美元采用 1: 0.1274） | [Table_Finance] | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万美元） | 2,177 | 2,470 | 2,647 | 2,973 | 3,319 | | 增长率（%） | -12.6% | 13.4% | 7.2% | 12.3% | 11.6% | | EBITDA（百万美元） | 291 | 344 | 332 | 375 | 424 | | 归母净利润（百万美元） | 163 | 200 | 227 | 262 | 302 | | 增长率（ % ） | - ...

截至月份: 2026年1月31日 狀態: 新提交 股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: Crystal International Group Limited 呈交日期: 2026年2月2日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | 是 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 02232 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | 多櫃檯證券代號 | | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 3,500,000,000 | HKD | | 0.01 | HKD | | 35,000,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | | HKD | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 3,50 ...

晶苑国际(02232)盘中涨超3%，截至发稿，涨2.14%，报7.15港元，成交额563.33万港元。 消息面上，晶苑国际发布公告，于2026年1月18日(埃及时间)，Crystal Egypt Industries(公司拟待埃及当 地政府批准该收购后成立的一家全资附属公司)与SID-New October(S.A.E.)(独立于公司及其关连人士)签 订了一份土地预留表格，以预留一幅位于埃及New October City的地块，以作收购之用，代价为3040万 美元。该收购取决于埃及当地政府批准。该代价将由集团内部资源提供资金。该地块位于埃及New October City的New October Industrial Zone，其总占地面积约为80万平方米。 集团拟使用该地块在埃及兴建生产厂房及配套设施，以开展在埃及的服装及面料业务扩张，提升产能。 集团认为，在埃及部署产能将有助于分散地缘政治风险，为全球客户提供更灵活可靠的生产解决方案， 并协助集团有效应对潜在的贸易政策变化。 ...

消息面上，晶苑国际发布公告，于2026年1月18日(埃及时间)，Crystal Egypt Industries(公司拟待埃及当 地政府批准该收购后成立的一家全资附属公司)与SID - New October(S.A.E.) (独立于公司及其关连人士) 签订了一份土地预留表格，以预留一幅位于埃及New October City的地块，以作收购之用，代价为3040 万美元。该收购取决于埃及当地政府批准。该代价将由集团内部资源提供资金。该地块位于埃及New October City的New October Industrial Zone，其总占地面积约为80万平方米。 集团拟使用该地块在埃及兴建生产厂房及配套设施，以开展在埃及的服装及面料业务扩张，提升产能。 集团认为，在埃及部署产能将有助于分散地缘政治风险，为全球客户提供更灵活可靠的生产解决方案， 并协助集团有效应对潜在的贸易政策变化。 智通财经APP获悉，晶苑国际(02232)盘中涨超3%，截至发稿，涨2.14%，报7.15港元，成交额563.33万 港元。 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [7] Core Insights - December orders for sports footwear and apparel showed a month-on-month decline, indicating that the overall industry has not yet reached an inflection point. Retail performance in the US and UK remains resilient, while demand in other regions is stagnant. The decline in the US consumer confidence index has not yet impacted brand and upstream performance, primarily due to growth being driven by high-end consumption, with mass apparel consumption still expected to recover [2][4][21] - Vietnam's footwear and apparel exports improved significantly in December, while China continues to face pressure. The upstream manufacturing sector is expected to have stronger earnings certainty in the first half of 2026, with a clear direction for recovery in the downstream sports supply chain. Brand apparel revenues are expected to fluctuate in Q4 2025, with profitability anticipated to recover in 2026 [2][5][29] Summary by Sections Manufacturing Performance - In December, the revenue performance of footwear manufacturers showed a year-on-year decline, with specific companies reporting: - Yuanyuan Group: -3.7% YoY, -1.3 percentage points MoM - Fengtai: -0.6% YoY, +11.2 percentage points MoM - Zhijiang International: -2.8% YoY, -5.9% MoM - Yuchi-KY: -2.2% YoY, -8.8% MoM - For apparel manufacturers: - Ruhong: -3.6% YoY, -5.1% MoM - Juyang Industrial: -9.2% YoY, -9.7% MoM - Guangyue: +9.7% YoY, -22.1% MoM [4][16][29] Demand Analysis - Retail performance in December showed resilience in the US and UK, while other regions experienced stagnation. The US consumer confidence index continues to decline, which has not yet reflected in brand and upstream performance. The growth is mainly driven by high-end consumption, with mass apparel consumption still expected to recover [2][21][26] Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on upstream manufacturing, as the performance in the first half of 2026 is expected to be more certain. The recovery direction of the sports supply chain is clear. Key recommended stocks include: - New Australia Holdings, Crystal International, Shenzhou International, and Yuanyuan Group - Attention should also be given to high-elasticity stocks like Nobon and Jeya, as well as undervalued stocks with strong safety margins like Taihua New Materials and Lutai A [5][29][30]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the textile, apparel, and luxury goods industry [9]. Core Insights - The current inventory replenishment cycle in the U.S. apparel industry is characterized by weak elasticity due to several factors, including K-shaped consumer spending, misalignment in brand recovery rhythms, and constraints faced by comprehensive sports brands [3][6]. - Despite the transition from inventory destocking to replenishment, the expected rebound in manufacturing performance and market response has not materialized as anticipated [6][19]. - The report forecasts limited replenishment elasticity in the near term, with potential improvements in terminal demand expected after the current interest rate cycle concludes [3][8]. Summary by Sections Introduction - The report discusses the weak momentum in the current manufacturing replenishment cycle, noting that the U.S. apparel industry has transitioned to a phase of active replenishment after reducing inventory to healthy levels since Q1 2023 [6][17]. Analysis of Weak Replenishment Cycle - **Macro Perspective**: U.S. consumer spending is experiencing K-shaped differentiation, where high-income households support overall consumption while lower-income households face suppressed purchasing power and willingness to spend [7][32]. - **Brand Perspective**: The misalignment in recovery rhythms among brands has diluted overall replenishment elasticity, with brands like Adidas and Deckers already undergoing several quarters of replenishment without strong retail catalysts [7][30]. - **Industry Perspective**: The growth potential in the sports category is diminishing due to factors such as slowing penetration rates, reduced technological innovation, and diminishing returns from direct-to-consumer (DTC) strategies [7][30]. Future Replenishment Elasticity Expectations - In the short term, historical inventory cycles suggest that mature brands may experience shorter replenishment periods, while growth-oriented brands could see longer cycles [8][19]. - The report indicates that after the current interest rate cycle, retail demand may improve, leading to a more resilient growth trajectory for top brands transitioning into replenishment phases [8][19]. - Recommended stocks include Crystal International and Shenzhou International, with a focus on companies like Wah Lee and Yue Yuen [8][19].

Company Overview: Crystal International Key Points Land Acquisition in Egypt - The company announced a plan to purchase land in Egypt for $30.4 million, covering an area of 800,000 square meters located in the New October City industrial zone in Giza, 59 km from Cairo, with well-developed infrastructure [1] - The expected production capacity of the land includes garment and fabric segments, aimed at flexibly meeting the demands of European and American clients, with revenue contributions anticipated to start as early as 2027 [1] - This acquisition is expected to significantly enhance the company's capacity to fulfill orders from core client Uniqlo, as well as provide advantages in servicing European clients such as Adidas, ZARA, Decathlon, and M&S [1] Advantages of Egyptian Production 1. **Labor Advantage**: Egypt has a population of 120 million, with a labor force of 75 million. The average monthly wage in the manufacturing sector is approximately $200, providing a rich and competitively priced labor pool [1] 2. **Tariff Advantage**: Exports to Europe face virtually zero tariffs, while exports to the U.S. incur a 10% tariff (with some industrial zones qualifying for zero tariffs if they meet a 35% value-added requirement) [1] 3. **Transportation Advantage**: Shipping times to Europe are two weeks faster than from Asia, and shipping to the U.S. is also two weeks quicker compared to Asian routes [1] Growth and Dividend Attributes - The company's diverse product development and production capabilities, along with flexible and efficient production lines and a rich overseas production layout, have led to full order books since 2024 [1] - Orders from core clients like Uniqlo and sports outdoor brands such as Adidas, Lulu, Decathlon, and The North Face are expected to lead growth [1] - The combination of automation and vertical integration is projected to maintain an upward trend in profit margins through 2025-2026, with a 2026 price-to-earnings ratio of 10X, a dividend payout ratio of no less than 60%, and a dividend yield of 6% [1] - The company is positioned as a stable growth leader in the export chain with attractive valuation, continuing to be recommended for investment [1]

晶苑国际(02232.HK)发布公告，于2026年1月18日(埃及时间)，Crystal Egypt Industries(公司拟待埃及当 地政府批准该收购后成立的一家全资附属公司)与 SID - New October (S.A.E.) (独立于公司及其关连人士) 签订了一份土地预留表格，以预留一幅位于埃及 New October City 的地块，以作收购之用，代价为3040 万美元。该收购取决于埃及当地政府批准。该代价将由集团内部资源提供资金。该地块位于埃及 New October City的 New October Industrial Zone，其总占地面积约为80万平方米。 | 指标 | 晶苑国际 | 服装家纺 行业平均 | 行业排名 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ROE | 14.13% | -4.15% | 14 70 | | 港股流通市值 | 205.4亿 | 82.54 Z | 6 70 | | 营业收入 | 26.05 乙 | 38.81亿 | 18 70 | | 净利率 | 8.0% | -16.02% | 19 70 | | 毛利率 | 19.73% | ...