Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating with a target price of HKD 22 [3] Core Views - The company's 1H24 revenue reached RMB 2.22 billion, a YoY increase of 26.7%, with gross margin improving by 8.2pp to 67.4% due to higher self-developed game revenue contribution [2] - Adjusted net profit was RMB 240 million, with an adjusted net margin of 10.7%, and adjusted EBITDA grew by 72.7% YoY to RMB 320 million [2] - Game business revenue increased by 29.3% YoY to RMB 1.49 billion, driven by strong performance of new games such as "Let's Go Muffin" and "Sword of Linlang" [2] - TapTap platform revenue grew by 32.6% YoY to RMB 1.30 billion, with monthly active users (MAU) in China reaching 43.24 million, a YoY increase of 27.3% [2] - The company expects strong growth in game revenue in 2H24 due to the successful launch of new games and the upcoming release of "Let's Go Muffin" in South Korea and Japan [2] Financial Projections - Revenue for 2024E/2025E is projected to be RMB 5.0 billion/RMB 5.3 billion, with adjusted net profit of RMB 570 million/RMB 650 million [3] - The target price of HKD 22 implies a 2024E/2025E P/E of 17.0x/14.7x [3] Game Performance - "Let's Go Muffin" became the top revenue contributor in 1H24 after its launch in Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and mainland China, with plans for expansion into South Korea and Japan [2] - "Heartbeat Town" achieved over 25 million downloads in its first month and is expected to become a product with millions of daily active users (DAU) [2] TapTap Platform - TapTap's user base rebounded, with MAU in China growing by 27.3% YoY and 14.8% QoQ, driven by increased marketing and the launch of popular games [2] - The company has limited ad load rates to improve user experience, which may slightly impact short-term ad revenue growth, but double-digit growth is still expected in 2H24 [2]

Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating [4] Core Views - The company achieved significant growth in revenue and net profit in H1 2024, driven by new game launches and rapid user growth on the TapTap platform [2][3] - The company's self-developed games, such as "Let's Go Muffin" and "Sword of Linlan," contributed to the revenue growth, while TapTap's user base expanded significantly [3] - The company is focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvement, with plans to further enhance commercialization and expand its game portfolio [4] Financial Performance - Revenue in H1 2024 reached RMB 2,221 million, a YoY increase of 26.7% [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 205 million, a YoY increase of 127.4% [2] - Gross profit was RMB 1,497 million, with a gross margin of 67.4%, up 8.2 percentage points YoY [2] - Sales and R&D expense ratios were 31.31% and 18.89%, respectively, with sales expenses increasing due to marketing and advertising costs for new games and TapTap [2] Business Segments - Game business revenue reached RMB 1,486 million, a YoY increase of 29.3%, driven by online game revenue growth of 32.0% [3] - Information services revenue was RMB 734 million, a YoY increase of 21.7%, supported by TapTap's user growth [3] - TapTap China's average MAU grew by 27.3% YoY to 43.2 million, benefiting from the launch of "Let's Go Muffin" and other games [3] Future Outlook - The company plans to launch "Let's Go Muffin" in multiple overseas markets in H2 2024 [3] - Three games are currently in development, with "Let's Go Muffin" and "Sword of Linlan" expected to drive future growth [3] - The company is preparing to launch AIGC service TapSight to enhance customer service capabilities [3] Valuation and Forecast - Estimated net profit for 2024-2026 is RMB 608 million, RMB 768 million, and RMB 938 million, respectively [4] - EPS for 2024-2026 is projected to be RMB 1.26, RMB 1.60, and RMB 1.95 per share, with P/E ratios of 14x, 11x, and 9x, respectively [4] Market Data - 52-week high/low price: HKD 23.80/7.47 [6] - Total market capitalization: HKD 9,469.14 million [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company has shown significant growth in H1 2024, with revenue reaching 2.221 billion HKD (up 26.7% year-on-year) and net profit of 205 million HKD (up 127.4% year-on-year). The adjusted net profit was 237 million HKD (up 110% year-on-year). This growth is attributed to new games and increased user engagement on TapTap [4] - The company maintains its profit forecasts for 2024-2026, expecting net profits of 783 million HKD, 1.137 billion HKD, and 1.246 billion HKD respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.6, 2.4, and 2.6 HKD. The current stock price corresponds to PE ratios of 11.1, 7.6, and 7.0 times for the respective years [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 2.221 billion HKD, with a year-on-year increase of 26.7%. The game business revenue grew to 1.486 billion HKD (up 29.3% year-on-year), driven by new games such as "Starting Muffin" and "Sword of Lily" [4] - TapTap's revenue reached 734 million HKD (up 21.7% year-on-year), benefiting from increased monthly active users and demand from game advertisers [4] Game Launches and Contributions - "Starting Muffin" became the largest revenue contributor in H1 2024, with overseas revenue of 618 million HKD (up 65% year-on-year). The game was launched in mainland China on May 15, 2024, and is expected to contribute to revenue growth in the second half of the year [5] - New games such as "Heart Town" and the international version of "Sword of Lily" are expected to continue driving performance growth [5] User Growth and TapTap Platform - TapTap's monthly active users reached 43.24 million (up 27.3% year-on-year), primarily due to the launch of several major new games. The platform's user base is expected to continue growing with the release of new titles [6] - The company limited ad loading rates in H1 2024 to enhance user experience, which is expected to support long-term growth and monetization potential for the platform [6]

Financial Performance - Revenue for the six months ended June 30, 2024, reached RMB 2,220,567 thousand, a 26.7% increase from RMB 1,753,102 thousand in the same period of 2023[2] - Gross profit for the same period was RMB 1,496,811 thousand, reflecting a 44.3% increase compared to RMB 1,037,261 thousand in 2023[2] - Adjusted profit for the period was RMB 278,811 thousand, up 115.1% from RMB 129,647 thousand year-on-year[2] - Net profit for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 250.6 million, compared to RMB 102.8 million for the same period in 2023[31] - The company's operating profit for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 270.5 million, significantly higher than RMB 122.7 million in the previous year[32] - The adjusted EBITDA for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 319.3 million, up from RMB 184.8 million in the previous year[32] - Profit attributable to equity holders for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 237,290 thousand, up 110.0% from RMB 112,979 thousand in the same period of 2023[35] - Basic and diluted earnings per share for the six months ended June 30, 2024, were both RMB 0.43, compared to RMB 0.19 in the same period of 2023[42] User Engagement - Average monthly active users (MAU) for online games decreased by 28.1% to 9,534 thousand from 13,269 thousand in the previous year[3] - Average monthly paying users (MPU) for online games fell by 21.4% to 1,092 thousand from 1,389 thousand in the same period last year[3] - TapTap's average MAU for the Chinese version increased by 27.3% to 43,242 thousand, recovering from a decline in 2023[5] - The average monthly active users (MAU) for TapTap's international version decreased by 29.0% year-on-year to 5.1 million, mainly due to a significant drop in users from India[14] Game Business Performance - The new self-developed game "GoGo Muffin" launched in January and May 2024 contributed to a 29.3% increase in game business revenue year-on-year[5] - As of June 30, 2024, the company's game business revenue increased by 29.3% year-on-year to RMB 1,486.3 million[17] - Revenue from online games rose by 32.0% year-on-year to RMB 1,425.9 million, driven by new game launches such as "GoGo Muffin" and "Sword of Convallaria"[17] - Revenue from paid games decreased by 14.5% year-on-year to RMB 55.2 million, primarily due to declines in existing titles[17] - The game "Heartopia" achieved over 25 million downloads in its first month after launch in July 2024[5] - The company maintains a portfolio of 20 online games and 33 paid games as of June 30, 2024[6] Expenses and Costs - Sales and marketing expenses rose by 110.4% to RMB 695.3 million, primarily due to promotional costs for new games and increased marketing expenses for the TapTap platform[26] - Research and development expenses decreased by 20.5% to RMB 419.5 million, attributed to project restructuring and a reduction in the number of R&D personnel from 1,143 to 997[27] - General and administrative expenses increased by 35.9% to RMB 138.3 million, mainly due to an increase in share-based compensation expenses[28] - The cost of revenue increased by 1.1% year-on-year to RMB 723.8 million as of June 30, 2024[20] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from the TapTap platform segment accounted for 15% of total revenue in the six months ended June 30, 2024, down from 19% in the same period of 2023[54] - The revenue from online marketing services for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 1,144,657 thousand, compared to RMB 890,848 thousand for the same period in 2023, indicating a growth of approximately 28.5%[52] - Revenue from mainland China was RMB 862,829 thousand, up from RMB 769,973 thousand, reflecting an increase of 12.0%[56] - Revenue from other regions increased significantly to RMB 618,245 thousand, compared to RMB 374,684 thousand, marking a 65.0% growth[56] Financial Position - The company's cash and cash equivalents decreased to RMB 2,163,500 thousand as of June 30, 2024, down from RMB 3,206,821 thousand as of December 31, 2023[36] - The company's debt-to-asset ratio improved to 42.9% as of June 30, 2024, compared to 57.6% as of December 31, 2023[38] - The total liabilities decreased to RMB 1,449,165 thousand as of June 30, 2024, down from RMB 2,540,691 thousand as of December 31, 2023, indicating a reduction of approximately 43%[44] - The total equity amounted to RMB 1,930,993 thousand, an increase from RMB 1,868,751 thousand as of December 31, 2023, representing a growth of approximately 3.32%[44] Corporate Governance and Strategy - The company complied with all applicable provisions of the Corporate Governance Code during the six months ended June 30, 2024, except for the separation of the roles of Chairman and CEO[83] - The board of directors consists of executive directors Huang Yimeng, Dai Yunjie, and Fan Shuying; non-executive director Wu Meng; and independent non-executive directors Pei Dapeng, Xin Quandong, and Liu Qianli[90] - The company is focused on ensuring the accuracy of information and providing strategic advice for investment and corporate decisions[90] - The company aims to maintain transparency and accountability in its financial reporting and communications[90] - Future outlook and performance guidance will be provided to stakeholders to align expectations[90] Future Plans - The company plans to leverage generative AI service TapSight to enhance user service capabilities in the future[5] - The company plans to release more paid games on multiple platforms in the second half of 2024, including "Hero's Adventure" and "Enter the Gungeon" mobile versions[11] - The company plans to reinvest retained earnings of RMB 1,541 million for further business expansion in China[65] - New product and technology development are key areas of focus for the company moving forward[90]

Investment Rating - Buy (maintained) [2] Core Views - The self-developed slow-paced life simulation game "Heartbeat Town" has maintained a top 3 position on the App Store free chart since its launch on July 17, with over 3 million downloads on Apple devices and over 21 million downloads on TapTap as of August 8, indicating significant user growth and potential for a large DAU product [5] - The game has a high reputation, with a score of 8.7 on TapTap and over 3.2 billion views for the HeartbeatTown topic on Douyin, suggesting strong user engagement and potential for long-term operation [5] - The first trend season event "Beach Paradise" for "Heartbeat Town" is set to launch on August 10, which is expected to drive game revenue growth through new paid content and improved user experience [6] - The rapid growth of "Heartbeat Town" users has also boosted TapTap's download growth, with the platform reaching a historic high of 11th on the App Store free chart, potentially expanding the platform's user base and monetization opportunities [7] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to increase from 3,431 million CNY in 2022 to 7,955 million CNY in 2026, with a significant jump expected in 2024 to 6,005 million CNY [8] - Net profit is forecasted to turn positive in 2024 at 783 million CNY, growing to 1,246 million CNY by 2026 [8] - Gross margin is expected to rise steadily from 53.5% in 2022 to 65.2% in 2026, indicating improving profitability [8] - EPS is projected to increase from 1.6 CNY in 2024 to 2.6 CNY in 2026, with a corresponding decrease in P/E ratio from 12.9x to 8.1x [8] Market Performance - Current stock price is 22.800 HKD, with a total market capitalization of 10.959 billion HKD [4] - The stock has a 3-month turnover rate of 57.6%, indicating active trading [4]

Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 2.18-2.23 billion yuan in 2024H1, a year-on-year increase of 24.4%-27.2%, and net profit of 220-270 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 114.0%-162.7%, exceeding expectations [3] - The new game cycle has begun, and the profit inflection point has emerged, driven by the successful launch of self-developed games such as "出发吧麦芬" and "铃兰之剑" [3] - TapTap's monetization efficiency is expected to improve steadily, benefiting from increased industry advertising demand [3] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Revenue is projected to grow from 3,433 million yuan in 2022 to 6,154 million yuan in 2026, with a significant year-on-year increase of 73.24% in 2024 [2] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to turn positive, reaching 616.44 million yuan in 2024, up from a loss of 553.50 million yuan in 2022 [2] - EPS is forecasted to increase from -1.15 yuan in 2022 to 1.45 yuan in 2026, with a P/E ratio of 16.34x in 2024 [2] Game Operations - The revenue growth in 2024H1 is primarily driven by new games "出发吧麦芬" and "铃兰之剑," partially offset by the natural decline in revenue from existing games [3] - "出发吧麦芬" has performed better than expected, with stable rankings on the iOS game bestseller list, and its profit elasticity is expected to be released in 2024H2 [3] - The newly launched "心动小镇" has shown excellent user retention and commercialization potential, while "铃兰之剑" has been launched overseas, with "出发吧麦芬" planned for release in Japan and South Korea in late 2024 [3] TapTap Performance - TapTap's information service revenue in China continued to grow year-on-year in 2024H1, driven by increased advertising demand and the launch of exclusive self-developed games [3] - TapTap's MAU in China has rebounded, and its advertising conversion efficiency has been optimized, leading to steady monetization efficiency improvement [3] - With the normalization of marketing and the launch of new games, TapTap's MAU and revenue are expected to continue growing in 2024H2 and beyond [3] Market Data - The closing price of the stock is 22.75 HKD, with a one-year low/high range of 7.47/23.80 HKD [5] - The P/B ratio is 6.40x, and the market capitalization is 10,935.18 million HKD [5] Financial Ratios - ROE is expected to improve significantly from -4.86% in 2023 to 26.51% in 2024 [9] - The gross margin is projected to remain stable at around 57% from 2024 to 2026 [9] - The P/E ratio is forecasted to decrease from 16.34x in 2024 to 14.41x in 2026, indicating improving valuation attractiveness [9] Cash Flow and Balance Sheet - Operating cash flow is expected to increase significantly from 235.45 million yuan in 2023 to 1,080.96 million yuan in 2024 [8] - The company's total assets are projected to grow from 4,409.44 million yuan in 2023 to 6,783.28 million yuan in 2026, driven by increased liquidity and non-current assets [8] - The debt-to-asset ratio is expected to decrease from 57.62% in 2023 to 41.70% in 2026, reflecting improved financial health [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][3] Core Views - The company is expected to see significant growth in H1 2024, driven by new game launches and increased revenue from TapTap, with projected revenue of HKD 2.18-2.23 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 24.4%-27.2% [3] - The net profit for H1 2024 is anticipated to be between HKD 220-270 million, showing a substantial year-on-year increase of 114.0%-162.7% [3] - The report maintains profit forecasts for 2024-2026, estimating net profits of HKD 783 million, HKD 1.137 billion, and HKD 1.246 billion respectively, with corresponding EPS of HKD 1.6, HKD 2.4, and HKD 2.6 [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of HKD 3.431 billion in 2022, with a slight decrease to HKD 3.389 billion in 2023. The forecast for 2024 is HKD 6.005 billion, indicating a significant increase [6] - The net profit was negative in 2022 at HKD -554 million, improved to HKD -83 million in 2023, and is projected to turn positive in 2024 with a profit of HKD 783 million [6] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 53.5% in 2022 to 63.7% in 2024, while the net margin is projected to shift from -16.1% in 2022 to 13.0% in 2024 [6] Game Launches and User Growth - The game "Heart Town" has surpassed 20 million downloads on TapTap since its launch on July 17, 2024, and has achieved a rating of 8.6 on the platform [4] - The game "Start Up Muffin" has maintained a position in the top 40 of the App Store's best-selling list since its launch on May 15, 2024, with a mini-game version launched on July 17, 2024 [4] - The self-developed game "Bellflower Sword" launched globally on August 1, 2024, and is currently ranked in the top 20 on the App Store in Japan and South Korea [4] Advertising Revenue and Market Position - The exclusive game "Heart Town" has driven an increase in TapTap's user base, contributing to a rise in advertising revenue due to heightened demand from new game launches [5] - TapTap's ranking on the App Store has reached an all-time high of 11, benefiting from a zero-commission policy and a strong core user base [5]

Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained Rating) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a turnaround in 2024H1, with revenue expected to reach 2.18-2.23 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.4%-27.2%, and net profit expected to be 220-270 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 114%-162.7% [2] - New games, particularly *Departure, Muffin* and *Heartbeat Town*, drove significant growth in the gaming business, with *Departure, Muffin* maintaining a top 10 position on the iOS game bestseller list in mainland China for most of its first month [2] - TapTap platform is expected to benefit from the launch of new games, with *Departure, Muffin* and *Heartbeat Town* driving user growth, as both games are exclusive to TapTap on Android [2] Financial Performance and Projections - Revenue for 2024/2025/2026 is projected to be 4.97/5.68/6.34 billion yuan, with net profit attributable to the parent company expected to be 505/664/764 million yuan [3] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 20.28/15.42/13.4X for 2024/2025/2026 [3] - Revenue growth rates for 2024/2025/2026 are projected at 46.61%, 14.25%, and 11.73%, respectively, with net profit growth rates at 708.09%, 31.53%, and 15.05% [5] Key Financial Metrics - Gross margin improved significantly, reaching 62.9% in 2024E, up from 53.5% in 2022A [6] - ROE (Return on Equity) is expected to rise to 22.81% in 2024E, compared to -29.31% in 2022A [5] - Operating cash flow per share is projected to increase to 1.83 yuan in 2024E, up from -0.68 yuan in 2022A [5] Game Performance and Strategy - *Departure, Muffin* achieved 1.97 million downloads on TapTap with a rating of 7.1, while *Heartbeat Town* reached 19.87 million downloads with a rating of 8.7 [2] - The company's strategy for *Heartbeat Town* focuses on user accumulation in the early stages, with expectations of increased revenue as user acquisition progresses [2] - TapTap is expected to benefit from the launch of major games like *DNF Mobile*, *Eternal Calamity Mobile*, and *Zenless Zone Zero* in 2024 [2]

心动公司 20240722_原文 2024 年 07 月 22 日 23:31 发言人 00:03 大家好,欢迎参加开源传媒传媒周一谈在论心动公司核心推荐逻辑电话会议。目前所有参会者均处于静 音状态,下面开始播报每次声明,声明完毕后主持人可以直接开始发言,谢谢。本次会议仅面向开源证 券的专业投资机构客户或受邀客户,仅供在新媒体背景下研究观点的及时交流。第三方专家发言内容仅 代表其个人观点、所有信息或所表述的的意见并不构成对任何人的投资建议。未经开源证券事先书面许 可,任何机构或个人严禁录音、转发及相关解读。涉嫌违反上述情形的,我们将保留一切法的权利。感 谢您的理解和支持,谢谢。 发言人 01:01 各位投资者,大家晚上好啊。欢迎参加我们开源传媒互联网团队,我们的这个传媒周一谈本周的这样的 一个线上路演,我是开源传媒互联网团队首席分析师方光照,今天我们主要是给投资者再分享一下,我 们近期对于心动公司的一个,推荐的核心逻辑。那由我跟我们团队的田鹏,一起给各位投资者来,做这 样的一个观点的分享汇报。首先我就先简单的讲讲我们对于心动这一轮推荐的一个整体的一个核心的逻 辑。好吧。然后待会儿一会儿就由田鹏再来具体的讲讲我 ...

大家好欢迎参加开源传媒传媒周一谈在论心动公司核心推荐逻辑电话会议目前所有参会者均处于静音状态下面开始播报名字声明声明完毕后主持人可以直接开始发言谢谢本次会议紧面向开源证券的专业投资机构客户或受益者 背景下研究观点的及时交流第三方专家发言内容仅代表其个人观点所有信息或所表述的意见并不构成对任何人的投资建议未经开源证券事先书面许可任何机构或个人严禁录音、转发及相关解读涉嫌违反上述情形的我们将保留一切法律权利感谢您的理解和支持 谢谢 各位投资者大家晚上好欢迎参加我们开源传媒互联网团队我们的传媒周一谈本周的这样一个线上路演我是开源传媒互联网团队首席分析师方光照那么今天我们主要是给投资者再分享一下我们近期对于心动公司的一个推荐的核心逻辑由我跟我们团队的田鹏一起给各位投资者来做这样的一个观点的分享汇报 那首先我就先简单的讲一讲我们对于心动这一轮推荐的一个整体的一个核心的逻辑然后待会一会就由田鹏再来具体的讲讲我们心动的深度报告以及相关的几篇跟踪的报告的一个详细的这样一个逻辑 那么心动来讲我们其实有对公司持续的跟踪尤其是在今年那么持续的在推荐基于我们看到公司它的一个非常大的一个编辑的变化就是公司的自研游戏这一块开始 像出发往 ...