Market Performance - The real estate sector (CITIC) had a weekly performance of 0.0%, while the CSI 300 and Wind All A indices decreased by -1.3% and -1.5% respectively, resulting in excess returns of 1.3% and 1.4%[5] - Among 29 CITIC industry sectors, real estate ranked 15th in performance[5] New Housing Market - In the week from January 31 to February 6, 2026, the new housing transaction area in 36 cities was 1.392 million square meters, down 2.9% week-on-week but up 175.7% year-on-year[10] - Cumulative transactions from February 1 to February 6 reached 1.204 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 257.9%[10] - Year-to-date transactions as of February 6 totaled 6.798 million square meters, down 16.2% year-on-year[10] Second-Hand Housing Market - For the same week, the transaction area for second-hand housing in 15 cities was 1.644 million square meters, down 3.6% week-on-week but up 245.8% year-on-year[16] - Cumulative transactions from February 1 to February 6 were 1.535 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 423.1%[16] - Year-to-date transactions as of February 6 totaled 8.383 million square meters, up 37.1% year-on-year[16] Inventory and Depletion Cycle - Cumulative new housing inventory in 13 cities was 77.165 million square meters, down 0.7% week-on-week and down 4.6% year-on-year[24] - The new housing depletion cycle for these cities is 22.9 months, with a week-on-week change of -0.1 months and a year-on-year change of +6.2 months[24] Land Market - The land transaction area from February 2 to February 8 was 1.1863 million square meters, down 44.9% week-on-week and down 36.0% year-on-year[43] - The average land price was 1,552 RMB per square meter, up 42.8% week-on-week and up 71.5% year-on-year[43] - Year-to-date land transactions as of February 8 totaled 10.556 million square meters, down 15.8% year-on-year[43] Investment Recommendations - Recommended mainland developers include A-shares: Binhai Group, China Merchants Shekou; Hong Kong stocks: China Overseas Development, Greentown China, China Resources Land, Jianfa International Group[9] - For light asset operation companies, recommended property management companies include Greentown Service and commercial management companies like China Resources Vientiane Life[9] Risk Factors - Risks include potential delays in the relaxation of real estate control policies, continued industry downturns, and ongoing credit risks leading to liquidity deterioration[5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [4] Core Insights - The report highlights the significance of Shanghai's new policy to acquire second-hand housing for affordable rental housing, indicating a strong signal in a declining market. The policy aims to link demand for affordable housing with improvement needs, potentially activating the market by directing purchasing power to higher-priced new and second-hand homes [11][12] - The report emphasizes that the real estate sector serves as an early economic indicator, suggesting that investing in real estate is akin to investing in economic trends. The competitive landscape is expected to improve, benefiting leading state-owned enterprises and quality developers [4] - The report suggests focusing on first-tier cities and select second- and third-tier cities, as this combination has shown better performance during market rebounds [4] Summary by Sections 1. Shanghai's Housing Acquisition Policy - Shanghai has initiated a program to acquire second-hand housing for affordable rental purposes, with pilot areas including Pudong, Jing'an, and Xuhui, each having distinct acquisition criteria and models [11] - The policy aims to match housing types with talent needs, focusing on low-priced, small-sized properties to stimulate market activity [12] 2. Market Review - The report notes that the real estate index has shown minimal change, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.34 percentage points. A total of 73 stocks in the real estate sector increased in value, while 40 stocks decreased [15] - The top-performing stocks included Jinglan Technology and Qianjing Garden, with significant weekly gains [21] 3. New and Second-Hand Housing Transactions - In the week leading up to February 6, new housing transactions in 30 cities totaled 131.2 million square meters, a 5.2% decrease from the previous week but a 138.2% increase year-on-year. First-tier cities saw a 4.0% increase week-on-week [26] - Second-hand housing transactions in 15 sample cities totaled 204.5 million square meters, reflecting a 3.5% decrease week-on-week but a 717.5% increase year-on-year [35]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors, highlighting the recovery potential of quality real estate companies and commercial real estate [2][31]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the real estate sector is approaching a bottom in its fundamentals after a deep adjustment, with recent central government policies aimed at stabilizing the market. The report emphasizes the importance of quality real estate companies, predicting that their profit recovery will occur sooner and be more resilient [2][31]. - The report recommends several quality real estate companies and commercial real estate firms, including Jianfa International, Binjiang Group, Greentown China, China Jinmao, and Poly Development, as well as commercial real estate firms like New City Holdings and China Resources Land [2][31]. Industry Data Summary New Home Transactions - In the week of January 31 to February 6, 2026, new home transactions in 34 key cities totaled 1.974 million square meters, a week-on-week decrease of 6.9%. The transaction volume in first and second-tier cities decreased by 3.1%, while third and fourth-tier cities saw a significant drop of 39.4% [3][4]. - Year-on-year, new home transactions in February increased by 327.2%, with first and second-tier cities up by 347.8% and third and fourth-tier cities up by 168.9% [4][10]. Second-Hand Home Transactions - In the same week, second-hand home transactions in 13 key cities totaled 1.198 million square meters, also down by 6.9% week-on-week. However, year-to-date transactions showed a 27.4% increase compared to the previous year [10][31]. Inventory and Supply - The report notes that 15 cities had a total of 290,000 square meters of new supply, with a sales-to-supply ratio of 2.62 times. The total available residential area in these cities was 88.525 million square meters, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.52% [21][31]. Policy and News Tracking - The report highlights significant policy developments, including the acceleration of commercial real estate REITs applications, with over 10 applications submitted to exchanges as of February 6, 2026. Additionally, Shanghai is advancing the acquisition of second-hand homes for rental housing, with pilot areas identified [31][32]. - Various regions, including Tianjin, Sichuan, and Hainan, have adjusted the minimum down payment ratio for commercial property loans to no less than 30% [31][32].

Core Insights - The property management industry is transitioning from focusing on new housing projects to emphasizing the management of existing assets and stock market operations due to a decline in the new housing market, with new housing starts expected to decrease by 20.4% year-on-year in 2025 [2][30] - The importance of value-added services in enhancing asset value and the necessity of implementing stock asset operations are highlighted as key strategies for property companies [2][30] Group 1: Concept and Value - Stock asset operation refers to a series of management activities aimed at maintaining and enhancing the value of completed real estate properties through professional management, services, renovations, and capital operations [3][31] - The value generated from stock asset operations includes maintaining asset pricing, enhancing owner experience, improving property fee collection rates, and contributing to social value through community governance [3][31][32] Group 2: Implementation Path - High-quality basic services are essential for asset preservation, acting as a "stabilizer" for asset value, while diversified value-added services serve as a "magnifier" and "accelerator" for enhancing asset value [6][34] - Successful examples, such as the Nanjing project by New Town Yue Service, demonstrate how quality property management can maintain property values even in declining markets, with the average second-hand house price remaining at 4.39 million yuan per square meter, higher than the opening price [9][36] Group 3: Execution Principles - Property companies must prioritize understanding the actual needs of owners when selecting value-added services, shifting from a supply-driven model to a demand-driven approach [11][38] - Establishing a systematic demand insight mechanism is crucial for capturing unspoken needs of owners, such as temporary storage or pet services, through various data collection methods [12][39] Group 4: Integrated Practices - The exploration of the "property service + life service" model has been encouraged by policies since 2021, aiming to integrate property services with various life services to enhance community asset operations [20][44] - The "property service into households" initiative aims to extend professional services into private home spaces, addressing specific household pain points and enhancing the trust and skill levels of property companies [23][48] Group 5: Case Studies - Various property companies are implementing innovative service models, such as the "One-stop Resource Integration Platform" by Country Garden Service, which combines multiple social service resources [21][47] - New Town Yue Service's "Yue XIN Home+" system provides professional in-home services, addressing daily household challenges and enhancing owner satisfaction [25][50]

该行认为绿城服务目前估值具吸引力，2026至2028年预测每股盈利年复合增长率达10%。同时，公司亦 积极回馈股东，除进行股份回购外，基于70%至75%的派息比率，其2025及26年预测股息收益率可达5% 至6%。 智通财经APP获悉，美银证券发布研报称，绿城服务(02869)凭借优质的服务能力，能够抵御内地物管行 业在定价及收费方面所面临的压力，并使公司在市场整合过程中成为长期的受惠者。此外，潜在的房地 产刺激措施亦可能改善投资者对物管板块的情绪。因此，该行将绿城服务的评级由"中性"上调至"买 入"，目标价由上调20%至6港元。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Greentown Service (02869) can withstand pricing and fee pressures in the mainland property management industry due to its high-quality service capabilities, positioning the company as a long-term beneficiary during market consolidation [1] - Bank of America upgraded Greentown Service's rating from "Neutral" to "Buy" and raised the target price by 20% to HKD 6 [1] - The current valuation of Greentown Service is considered attractive, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10% for earnings per share from 2026 to 2028 [1] Group 2 - The company is actively returning value to shareholders through share buybacks, and the forecasted dividend yield for 2025 and 2026 is expected to reach 5% to 6% based on a payout ratio of 70% to 75% [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Greentown Service's strong service capabilities enable it to withstand pricing and fee pressures in the mainland property management industry, positioning the company as a long-term beneficiary during market consolidation [1] - Bank of America upgraded Greentown Service's rating from "Neutral" to "Buy" and raised the target price by 20% to HKD 6, citing attractive valuation [1] - The forecasted compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for earnings per share from 2026 to 2028 is expected to reach 10% [1] Group 2 - The company is actively returning value to shareholders through share buybacks and is projected to achieve a dividend yield of 5% to 6% for the years 2025 and 2026, based on a payout ratio of 70% to 75% [1] - Potential real estate stimulus measures may improve investor sentiment towards the property management sector [1]

Core Insights - The report discusses the implementation of the "Tax Law Principle" and its implications for service industries such as internet and finance, indicating that current tax arrangements are unlikely to change significantly in the short term [2][3][12] - The real estate sector is experiencing a favorable shift in financing policies, with REITs and private placements opening new equity financing channels to alleviate financial pressures on real estate companies [3][13] Tax Law Implementation - The State Council approved the "Implementation Regulations of the Value-Added Tax Law of the People's Republic of China" on December 19, 2025, and subsequent announcements have clarified tax details, suggesting stability in tax arrangements for service industries [2][3][12] - The definition of "basic services" in telecommunications is evolving, with mobile data and internet broadband still classified as "value-added services" subject to a 6% VAT rate, while traditional voice services are recognized as "basic services" with a 9% VAT rate [2][3][12] Real Estate Sector Analysis - The financing environment for the real estate industry is improving, with a shift from debt financing to equity financing, including the introduction of REITs and private placements [3][13] - Recent regulatory changes, such as the gradual retreat from the "three red lines" policy, indicate a more supportive financing environment for real estate companies [13] - The report maintains a "positive" rating for the real estate sector, highlighting the potential for recovery in the industry as financing policies become more favorable [3][13] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several quality real estate companies for investment, including China Jinmao, Poly Developments, and China Resources Land, among others, due to their potential for recovery and attractive valuations [13] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the evolving financing landscape and the impact of government policies on the real estate market [3][13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the real estate sector, indicating a potential investment return that exceeds the market benchmark index by 5% to 15% over the next 6-12 months [7]. Core Insights - As of early 2026, multiple regions have initiated old housing acquisitions, significantly accelerating the "old-for-new" program, supported by a reduction in the central bank's one-year relending rate from 1.5% to 1.25% [1][3]. - Local governments are actively engaging in funding through various means, including fiscal support and bank loans, to facilitate the acquisition and renovation of old housing, thereby enhancing the supply of affordable rental housing [3]. - The report highlights that the government's direct acquisition of second-hand old houses is an effective measure to streamline the housing exchange process, reduce the exchange cycle, and simplify procedures, ultimately promoting the sales of new homes [3]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Old Housing Acquisition - The "old-for-new" service has been launched in various cities, with Shanghai and Hangzhou being notable examples where initial registrations have been completed and dynamic waiting lists established for families wishing to participate [1][2]. - Specific focus areas include older properties in urban centers, with clear ownership and reasonable pricing, aimed at facilitating housing exchanges for those in need [2]. Section 2: Market Dynamics - By the end of 2025, public funds held a mere 0.43% of their stock investment value in the real estate sector, indicating a significant underweight compared to standard industry allocation [4]. - The report suggests that high-energy cities are likely to benefit from urban renewal initiatives, leading to structural optimization and gradual stabilization of the market [5]. Section 3: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on three main investment lines: 1. Real estate companies with strong credit advantages and high product reputation in core cities, such as China Merchants Shekou and China Jinmao [5]. 2. Public REITs with rich existing resources and strong operational brand competitiveness, such as China Resources Land and Shanghai Lingang [5]. 3. Long-term growth potential in property services, recommending companies like China Merchants Jiyu and Greentown Service [5].

Core Insights - The real estate sector has shown a decline of 2.1% over the past week, ranking 17th among 29 sectors in the market, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index and the Wind All A index experienced changes of 0.1% and -1.6% respectively [5][38]. - New home sales in 36 cities reached 1.425 million square meters last week, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 14.2% and a year-on-year increase of 146.5%. However, cumulative sales from January 1 to January 30 totaled 5.398 million square meters, down 30.3% year-on-year [5][10]. - The second-hand housing market saw a total transaction area of 1.706 million square meters across 15 cities last week, with a slight week-on-week decrease of 0.7% but a significant year-on-year increase of 744.4%. Cumulative sales for the same period reached 6.739 million square meters, up 15.8% year-on-year [5][16]. Real Estate Market Conditions - The inventory of new homes in 13 cities stands at 7.7738 million square meters, showing a slight decrease of 0.2% week-on-week and a year-on-year decrease of 3.8%. The average de-stocking period is 23.0 months, which is stable compared to the previous week but has increased by 6.7 months year-on-year [5][24]. - In terms of land transactions, the total area sold in 100 cities from January 26 to February 1 was 1.7955 million square meters, marking a week-on-week increase of 49.2% and a year-on-year increase of 419.7%. The average land price was 979 yuan per square meter, down 28.0% week-on-week and down 74.4% year-on-year [5][32]. Investment Recommendations - For mainland developers, the report recommends companies such as Binjiang Group and China Merchants Shekou in A-shares, and China Overseas Development and Greentown China in Hong Kong stocks, highlighting that sales growth expectations post-market recovery will drive valuation improvements [5][9]. - Light asset operation companies are also recommended, as they are expected to maintain stable fundamentals during the downturn. Suggested companies include Greentown Service for property management and China Resources Mixc Lifestyle for commercial management [5][9]. - For Hong Kong developers, the report suggests focusing on companies like Sun Hung Kai Properties and Henderson Land Development, which are expected to benefit from a recovering residential sales market [5][9]. Financing Conditions - In the realm of domestic credit bonds, real estate companies issued a total of 8 bonds last week, amounting to 4.96 billion yuan, which is a decrease of 42.9% week-on-week but an increase of 346.3% year-on-year. The net financing amount was -3.97 billion yuan due to repayments totaling 8.93 billion yuan [5][36].