[Table_Page] 公司深度研究|软件与服务 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 【广发计算机&海外】金山云（03896.HK） 背靠小米金山，AI 为翼，发展再提速 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 盈利预测：（除特殊说明，本报告货币单位为人民币，参考汇率 1 港元=0.931 人民币） [分析师： Table_Author]杨琳琳 SAC 执证号：S0260514050004 SFC CE No. BNC117 0755-23480370 yll@gf.com.cn 分析师： 刘雪峰 SAC 执证号：S0260514030002 SFC CE No. BNX004 021-38003675 gfliuxuefeng@gf.com.cn 分析师： 吴祖鹏 SAC 执证号：S0260521040003 wuzupeng@gf.com.cn -32% 91% 214% 336% 459% 582% 03/24 05/24 07/24 09/24 11/24 01/25 03/25 金山云 恒生指数 请注意，吴祖鹏并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注 册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 | ...

上 市 公 司 报告原因：首次覆盖 买入（首次评级） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 02 月 10 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 9.33 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 7946.81 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 9.58/1.08 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 355.03 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 3,805.28 | | 汇率（人民币/港币） | 1.0863 | 公 计算机 2025 年 02 月 11 日 金山云 (03896) ——金山小米生态核心云厂，AI+智驾乘风而上 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： -15% 985% 02/14 03/14 04/14 05/14 06/14 07/14 08/14 09/14 10/14 11/14 12/14 01/14 HSCEI 金山云 资料来源：Bloomberg 证券分析师 林起贤 A0230519060002 linqx@swsresearch.com 黄忠煌 A0230519110001 huangzh@swsresearch.com 戴文杰 A0230522100006 daiwj ...

2月3日，全球股市大幅调整，港股开盘也未能幸免，恒生科技指数早盘一度下跌超3%。不过，随着人 工智能和半导体概念的走热，港股跌幅持续收窄，恒生科技指数盘中翻红。截至收盘，恒指微跌 0.04%，早盘一度跌超2%；恒生科技指数涨0.29%。 全球大跌背景下，港股表现强势。 从全球范围来看，今日日韩股市均大幅下跌，主要指数跌幅均超过2%，韩国KOSDAQ指数跌幅超过 3%。欧股方面，欧股全线低开，欧洲斯托克50指数跌2%，德国DAX指数跌1.9%，英国富时100指数跌 1.2%，法国CAC40指数跌1.5%。 AI、半导体双双发力 在今天的港股市场上，人工智能和半导体成为"最靓的仔"，其中大数据概念涨幅超15%，半导体概念、 云计算涨超4%。 在这一轮涨幅中，金山云和中芯国际贡献巨大。其中，金山云盘中一度涨超37%，收涨超31%；中芯国 际涨超10%。 金山云官网显示，金山云创立于2012年，作为中国知名的独立云服务商，业务范围遍及全球多个国家和 地区。2020年5月，金山云在美国纳斯达克上市（股票代码：KC.NASDAQ）；2022年12月，以介绍形 式于香港交易所主板完成双重主要上市（股票代码：3896.HK） ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Involved - The conference call primarily discusses **Xiaomi** and its AI developments, as well as **Kingsoft Cloud** as a key infrastructure provider for Xiaomi's AI initiatives. Core Insights and Arguments - **Xiaomi AI Progress**: In 2023, Xiaomi made significant advancements in AI, launching a second-generation large model with over a 45% improvement in performance compared to the first generation. This model is now integrated into smart driving technology, enhancing capabilities with the VLM visual language model [2][3]. - **Ecosystem Demand for AI**: Xiaomi's ecosystem, which includes smart driving, IoT, and mobile phones, has a strong demand for AI. The delivery volume of Xiaomi cars is projected to increase from over 130,000 units this year to a target of 300,000 units, driving up the demand for ASM (Autonomous System Management) [3][4]. - **Kingsoft Cloud's AI Revenue Growth**: Kingsoft Cloud reported rapid growth in AI revenue, reaching 1.05 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, accounting for over 20% of total revenue. This growth is primarily driven by transactions with Xiaomi and external clients [3][5]. - **Profitability Improvements**: Kingsoft Cloud has optimized its revenue mix by reducing reliance on CDN services and focusing on Xiaomi's ecosystem, resulting in a significant increase in gross margin and EBITDA margin, which reached nearly 10% in Q3 2024 [3][6]. - **Future Revenue Projections**: Kingsoft Cloud anticipates revenue from Xiaomi to grow significantly, with projections of 2.3 billion, 3.1 billion, and 4 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, respectively. This growth is expected to be bolstered by the increasing demand for Xiaomi's AI developments [3][7]. Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content - **Customer Base of Kingsoft Cloud**: Kingsoft Cloud serves a diverse customer base, including Xiaomi, Kingsoft, and various external clients such as major AI model companies and internet firms. This broad customer base helps mitigate direct competition [3][8]. - **Market Positioning**: Kingsoft Cloud maintains an independent and neutral market position, avoiding direct competition with external clients in the C-end model business. This positioning provides a unique advantage in servicing external clients while still relying heavily on Xiaomi for growth [3][10]. - **Overall Revenue Performance**: Kingsoft Cloud's revenue showed a recovery with a 16% growth rate in Q3 2024, and the company is on track to achieve a 5%-10% growth target for the year, indicating a positive trend in market share acquisition [3][11]. - **Impact of Xiaomi's AI Investments**: Increased investment by Xiaomi in AI is expected to create more opportunities for Kingsoft Cloud, suggesting that investors should closely monitor Xiaomi's developments in the AI sector for potential investment opportunities [3][13].

我们给各位同事们汇报一下小米AI的一个最新的情况,然后包括我们看到金山芸在整个小米生态里面,她对于整个AI的这个底座的这么一个角色的一个演绎。我们先看一下最近小米AI它的一个进展其实是比较多的,主要是在能源上。那在去年的11月呢,小米是在这个基础平台故事成立的这个AI部门。 由张博来担任这个AI品牌部的负责人张博他其实之前也是在小米的我任职后面是出去创业然后最近又是这个回到小米这边另外你也看到就是小米在幻视招聘了这个DeepSeek的一个开发角落福利去加入小米那么也看到就是DeepSeek v3的这个开源的这个效果其实也是比较惊艳的 除了在能源上的话,我们也看到一些产品上的迭代。在去年的十一月,我们看到小米今天也上新了二代的大模型。相比到第一代大模型的话,二代大模型整个训练的数据规模是更大的。另外的话,在包括生成、对话、问答等等各项功能里面,整体来讲它的功能提升幅度是超过了45%。 然后下一个我们也看到在车这个板块那在去年的12月下旬那小米汽车这边苏7是在更新了这个新的版本之后呢接了这个VLM的这个PK元大模型然后再一个我们也看到就是在去年年底呢小米也在它的智能驾驶系统里面呢推动了这个端到端大模型的先锋版 这 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights the strong performance of various companies in the stock market, particularly in the technology and pharmaceutical sectors [1][2][3] - Kingsoft Cloud saw an increase of 11.79%, indicating sustained market confidence in its cloud services business [1] - Notable stock increases include Shandong Xinhua Pharmaceutical at 8.14%, Minmetals Resources at 6.77%, and China General Nuclear Power at 7.32% [2] Group 2 - Technology stocks performed exceptionally well, with SUTENG Technology leading the market with a 12.84% increase [3] - Other companies such as Hisense Home Appliances and Lai Kai Pharmaceutical-B also showed significant gains of 6.19% and 6.12% respectively [2] - The overall market sentiment appears positive, with multiple companies experiencing gains exceeding 5% [2]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Outperform" rating for the company [5]. Core Insights - The company has strategically optimized its revenue mix, leveraging AI to drive a recovery in high-speed growth. Revenue grew from RMB 3.96 billion in 2019 to RMB 9.06 billion in 2021, with a CAGR of 51.3%. However, revenues declined in 2022 and 2023 due to the pandemic and strategic CDN reductions, recording RMB 8.18 billion and RMB 7.05 billion respectively [2][35]. - The company is a leading cloud service provider in China, focusing on enhancing technology, products, and services. The shift towards AI and revenue optimization has yielded significant results, with expectations for public cloud revenue to grow rapidly in the coming years [4][40]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Founded in 2012, the company has built a comprehensive cloud infrastructure and operations system, offering over 150 solutions to more than 500 premium clients. Its business is divided into public and industry cloud services, with a strong focus on AI-driven product upgrades [1][36]. Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported a gross profit of RMB 850 million, a 97.9% increase YoY, with a gross profit margin (GPM) of 12.1%, up 6.8 percentage points. The net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB -2.176 billion, an 18.1% improvement YoY [2][35]. AI and Strategic Initiatives - The establishment of an AI R&D center in 2023 has focused on applications, algorithms, and platforms. The company has formed strategic partnerships to enhance its AI capabilities, with AI revenue reaching RMB 360 million in Q3 2024, accounting for approximately 31% of public cloud revenue [3][48]. Revenue Forecast - The company anticipates public cloud revenue growth of 15.0%, 20.0%, and 22.5% YoY from 2024 to 2026, while industry cloud revenue is expected to grow at a stable rate of 3.0%, 4.0%, and 5.0% YoY during the same period. The gross profit margin is projected to rise to 17.0%, 21.0%, and 24.0% for 2024-2026 [4][40]. Target Price and Valuation - The forecasted revenues for 2024-2026 are RMB 7.784 billion, RMB 8.902 billion, and RMB 10.405 billion, representing YoY growth of 10.5%, 14.4%, and 16.9%. The target price is set at HKD 7.63, based on a 2025 price-to-sales ratio of 3.0x [5][40].

Key Points Industry and Company Involved - **Industry**: Cloud Computing, AI Applications - **Company**: Kingsoft Cloud (KSC), Kingsoft Corporation (KS) Core Views and Arguments - **KSC Growth**: KSC's revenue growth has been robust from 2019 to 2021. However, in 2022, annual revenue decreased by approximately 10%. Despite this, gross margin improved significantly, with adjusted EBITDA margin rising from a loss of 8.6% in Q2 2022 to a positive 9.8% [doc 2][doc 4]. - **KSC Revenue Projections**: KSC's revenue from Kingsoft Software and Xiaomi is expected to grow significantly, with a projected annual growth rate of nearly threefold from 2024 to 2026 [doc 5][doc 6]. - **KSC Valuation**: The target market capitalization for KSC is estimated at around 300 billion HKD [doc 7]. - **KS Financials**: KS's revenue for the first three quarters of 2023 was 29 billion RMB, a 40% increase year-on-year. Profit increased by 200% to 11.5 billion RMB [doc 9][doc 10]. - **KS Valuation**: The total valuation of KS, including the equity value of KSC and Kingsoft Office, could reach 1300-1400 billion RMB under an optimistic scenario [doc 11]. Other Important Points - **KSC's AI Business**: KSC's AI business revenue is expected to be significant by the third quarter of 2023 [doc 4]. - **KSC's Cloud Service Contracts**: KSC has cloud service contracts with Kingsoft Software and Xiaomi, with revenue ceilings of 4.7 billion, 6 billion, and 7.8 billion RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [doc 5]. - **KS's Game Business**: KS's game business, including West Mountain Games and Kingsoft Office, has seen significant growth, with revenue from games increasing by 77% year-on-year and 32% sequentially [doc 9][doc 10]. - **KS's Equity Value**: The equity value of KS, including the equity value of KSC and Kingsoft Office, is estimated at around 800 billion RMB [doc 11]. - **KS's Cash Position**: KS has a cash position of over 240 billion RMB [doc 11]. Recommendations - **KSC**: KSC is recommended for investment, with a target market capitalization of around 300 billion HKD [doc 7]. - **KS**: KS is recommended for investment, with a total valuation of 1300-1400 billion RMB under an optimistic scenario [doc 11]. - **Kingsoft Office**: Kingsoft Office is a core AI application investment target in A-share [doc 13].

Group 1 - Major technology stocks experienced a decline, with Tesla dropping nearly 5%, Nvidia falling over 2%, and Apple, Microsoft, Netflix, Google, and Amazon all decreasing by over 1% [1] - The three major U.S. stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 333.59 points (0.77%) at 42,992.21 points, the Nasdaq down 298.33 points (1.49%) at 19,722.03 points, and the S&P 500 down 66.75 points (1.11%) at 5,970.84 points [1] Group 2 - Most popular Chinese concept stocks also saw declines, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index falling by 1.54% [2] - Zeekr and Fangdd both dropped over 9%, while XPeng and NIO fell over 4%. JD.com and Futu Holdings decreased by over 3%, and Bilibili dropped over 2% [2] - Kingsoft Cloud experienced a significant increase, rising by 23.24% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has seen significant gains, with Kingsoft Cloud leading the way with a 37.80% increase, driven by increased demand for computing power due to Xiaomi's plans to integrate AI into its ecosystem [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Kingsoft Cloud recorded a leading gain of 37.80% among Hong Kong Stock Connect stocks [1] - Hongteng Precision and Yika followed with increases of 17.76% and 17.05%, respectively [1] - Other companies such as Changfei Optical Fiber, ZTE, Smoore International, Sensong International, Lenovo Holdings, and Jingtai Holdings also performed well, each with gains exceeding 10% [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - Market analysts believe that Xiaomi's strategy to deeply integrate AI will significantly increase the demand for computing power [1] - As a strategic partner of Xiaomi, Kingsoft Cloud is expected to benefit from this increased demand [1]