旅游时少了一件短袖、出差团建来不及买球鞋、孩子上体育课鞋子突然破了……闪购一下，大牌运动装 备30分钟到手。5月23日，记者获悉，美团闪购与运动零售运营商滔搏达成合作，双方在系统对接、商 品供给、联合营销等方面持续深入合作。目前，滔搏近2000家门店已入驻美团闪购。 即时零售的运动商品销量翻倍 随着即时零售商品供给不断丰富，越来越多的消费者在买跑鞋、运动服等商品时习惯于"即需即买，30 分钟到家"。美团闪购数据显示，2025年5月，运动品类商品销量相比去年增长超100%，跑鞋销量相比 去年增长超200%。滔搏是国内最大的运动零售运营商。 在系统对接方面，目前双方已实现合作店铺的库存数据打通，尽可能减少因数据不互通造成的缺货、退 款情况，提升消费者购物体验。后续双方还将实现滔搏会员权益在美团闪购的跨平台打通，让品牌在获 取新客户的同时激活老客户，提升复购率。在丰富商品供给方面，滔搏部分合作品牌已有超3000款商品 上线。 在优化用户体验方面，在最快30分钟送达服务的基础上，双方通过全城送功能扩展门店服务半径，触达 25公里范围的用户；同时，双方通过预订单功能满足用户非营业时间的购物需求，目前滔搏在美团闪购 的预 ...

Core Insights - Adidas and Nike are losing market share in China, with Nike's market share declining by over 3 percentage points in the past five years and Adidas experiencing five consecutive quarters of revenue decline in the Greater China region [1] - The largest sports goods distributor in China, Tmall, reported a revenue drop of 6.69% to 27.013 billion RMB and a net profit decline of 41.89% for the fiscal year ending February 28, 2024 [2][3] - Tmall's revenue from Adidas and Nike still accounted for 86.3% of total revenue, despite a 6.1% decline in revenue from these brands [4] Company Performance - Tmall's revenue for the fiscal year ending February 28, 2025, was 27.013 billion RMB, with a gross profit of 10.383 billion RMB and an operating profit of 1.593 billion RMB [3] - The main brands (Adidas and Nike) generated 23.311 billion RMB in revenue, down from 24.834 billion RMB the previous year [5] Market Trends - The sports retail industry is undergoing a transformation, with local brands like Anta rapidly gaining market share through national trend marketing [1] - Tmall is shifting its focus towards niche international outdoor brands, signing partnerships with brands like Norrøna and SOAR to diversify its offerings [6][10] - The rise of niche sports brands is seen as an opportunity for Tmall, as traditional sports markets show limited growth [19] Strategic Shifts - Tmall is adopting a multi-brand and multi-channel operational model, transitioning from a traditional distributor to a comprehensive sports retail operator [14] - The company aims to provide full-chain support for new brands, focusing on understanding and positioning them in the Chinese market [16][17] - Tmall's strategy includes targeting high-end outdoor brands, which aligns with the growing interest in outdoor activities among young consumers [21][23] Competitive Landscape - The outdoor sports market in China is becoming increasingly competitive, with numerous new brands entering the market [24] - Tmall faces challenges in educating consumers about high-end outdoor brands in a market with a weak outdoor culture [24]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Buy" [5] Core Views - The company is leveraging a comprehensive retail strategy to address operational challenges and diversify its customer base [5] - The company has faced short-term profit impacts due to increased discounts but maintains a leading dividend payout ratio in the industry [7] - The core international brand partnerships are gradually recovering, and new brand acquisitions are expected to enhance the company's diversified layout [7] - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of RMB 1.416 billion in FY2026, with a growth rate of 10.14% [7] Financial Performance Summary - For FY2024, the company is expected to generate revenue of RMB 27,012.90 million, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 6.64% [6] - The net profit for FY2024 is projected at RMB 1,286 million, down 41.89% year-on-year [6] - The company’s gross margin for FY2024 is estimated at 38.4%, a decrease of 3.4 percentage points compared to the previous fiscal year [7] - The company plans to maintain a total dividend payout ratio of 135% for FY2024/25, continuing to provide high dividend returns to shareholders [7] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue forecasts for the company are as follows: RMB 28,933.20 million in 2024, RMB 27,012.90 million in 2025, and RMB 26,445.63 million in 2026, with respective growth rates of 6.87%, -6.64%, and -2.10% [6] - The projected net profit for the years 2026 to 2028 is RMB 1,416.34 million, RMB 1,670.93 million, and RMB 1,980.06 million, with growth rates of 10.14%, 17.98%, and 18.50% respectively [6][7]

证券研究报告|行业研究周报 882 [Table_Date] 2025 年 05 月 23 日 [Table_Title] 亚玛芬 Q1 业绩超预期，上调全年指引 纺织服装行业周报 [Table_Title2] 20250519-20250523 [Table_Summary] ► 主要观点： 本周滔搏发布FY2025年报，FY2025公司收入/归母净利 /经营性现金流分别为 270.13/12.86/37.55 亿元，同比增长 -6.6%/-41.9%/20.0%，归母净利下滑幅度高于收入主要由于 公司面对销售下滑带来的存货压力，加大整体促销力度、调 整线上线下销售结构影响导致毛利率下滑。经营现金流高于 净利主要由于存货减少、应收账款减少、有效的运营资金管 理。FY25 每股拟派发现金红利 0.02 元、特别股息 0.12 元，叠加中期股息 0.14 元，分红率为 135%，股息率为 8.75%。 本周 Deckers 公布 FY2025 全年业绩，公司 FY25 收入增 长 16.3% 至 49.86 亿美元，营运利润同比增加 27.1%至 11.79 亿美元。毛利率同增 2.3pct 至 57.9%，净 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is experiencing a decline in revenue and net profit for FY2025, primarily due to sales drop and inventory pressure, leading to increased promotional efforts and a decrease in gross margin [1][3]. Financial Performance - FY2025 revenue, net profit, and operating cash flow are projected at 27.013 billion, 1.286 billion, and 3.755 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -6.6%, -41.9%, and +20.0% [1]. - The gross margin for FY2025 decreased by 3.4 percentage points to 38.4%, while the net profit margin fell by 2.9 percentage points to 4.8% [3]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.02 yuan per share and a special dividend of 0.12 yuan, resulting in a total dividend payout ratio of 135% and a dividend yield of 8.75% [1]. Store and Sales Performance - The number of stores decreased by 18.3%, while the sales area per store increased by 7.2% [1]. - Revenue from the main brand, other brands, joint venture fees, and esports revenue for FY2025 are projected at 23.311 billion, 3.505 billion, 146 million, and 52 million yuan, respectively, with declines of 6.1%, 9.9%, 14.1%, and 32.4% [1]. - Retail and wholesale business revenues are expected to be 23.027 billion and 3.788 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year declines of 6.8% and 5.8% [1]. Online and Digital Strategy - The company has over 500 accounts on Douyin and WeChat video accounts, with more than 2,300 mini-program stores, indicating a strong online presence [1]. - Direct online sales, including public and private domains, have shown double-digit growth year-on-year, with online sales accounting for 30%-40% of total direct sales [1]. - The company has developed an AI tool, "Dolphin AI," which has contributed nearly 100 million yuan in sales and improved content generation efficiency [2][3]. Customer Engagement and Membership - The total number of users reached 86 million, a year-on-year increase of 12.7%, with high-value members contributing 93.2% of in-store retail sales [2]. - High-value members, although representing a low single-digit percentage of total members, account for approximately 40% of total sales, indicating strong customer loyalty [2]. Future Outlook - Short-term improvements in inventory and online sales strategies are expected to mitigate the impact of declining foot traffic [3]. - The company is optimistic about future collaborations with high-end brands and the potential for recovery in the market following leadership changes at Nike [3]. - Long-term prospects remain positive due to strong channel partnerships, ongoing digital transformation, and high dividend attributes [3].

Core Viewpoint - The company achieved a revenue of 27.01 billion for FY25, a year-on-year decline of 6.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.29 billion, down 41.9% year-on-year, with FY25H2 showing a revenue and net profit decline of 5.4% and 53% respectively [1] - The expected dividend payout ratio for FY25 is 134%, exceeding market expectations [1] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from retail and wholesale channels for FY25 decreased by 6.8% and 5.8% year-on-year respectively [1] - Revenue from the main brand and other brands declined by 6.1% and 9.9% year-on-year respectively [1] Store Operations - As of the end of FY25, the company had 5,020 directly operated stores, with a net closure of 1,124 stores, including 258 new openings and 1,382 closures [1] - Total sales area decreased by 12.4% year-on-year, while sales area per store increased by 7.2%, reflecting the company's "one product one strategy" approach to store adjustments [1] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for FY25 decreased by 3.4 percentage points to 38.4%, primarily due to increased retail discounts, with FY25H2 showing greater discounting than FY25H1 [1] - The net profit margin attributable to shareholders decreased by 2.9 percentage points to 4.8% [1] Inventory and Cash Flow - The company's inventory turnover days were 133 days, a decrease of 1 day year-on-year, with net cash flow from operating activities reaching 3.76 billion, a year-on-year increase of 20% [2] - Cash at the end of the period was 2.59 billion, up from 1.96 billion in the same period last year [2] Brand Collaborations - The company is steadily advancing new brand collaborations, including the introduction of the high-end SOAR running brand to the Chinese market [2] - Collaborations with top outdoor brands for comprehensive operations in China are underway, alongside deepened partnerships with the Canadian high-end trail running brand nordaTM [2] Earnings Forecast - The earnings forecast for FY26-28 has been adjusted, with expected earnings per share of 0.21, 0.25, and 0.30 respectively [2] - A target price of 3.45 HKD is set for FY26, based on a 15 times PE valuation [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported FY25 results that were in line with expectations, showing a revenue decline of 6.6% year-on-year and a significant drop in net profit attributable to shareholders by 42% to 1.29 billion RMB [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company plans to distribute a final and special dividend of 0.14 RMB per share, resulting in an annual payout ratio of 135%, maintaining a high dividend distribution [1]. - Revenue decline was attributed to weak demand and pressure on offline foot traffic, with a 5.4% year-on-year decrease in revenue for the second half of FY25, which was an improvement compared to the first half [1]. - Retail business revenue for the first and second halves of FY25 decreased by 8.9% and 4.8% year-on-year, respectively, due to increased inventory clearance in online channels [1]. - The main brand's revenue fell by 6.1% year-on-year, while other brands saw a 9.9% decline, primarily due to weakness in the leisure sports segment [1]. - The company closed 1,382 stores, reducing the total to 5,020, with total sales area decreasing by 12% year-on-year [1]. Operational Efficiency - The company maintained a cautious approach to store openings and accelerated the elimination of inefficient stores [1]. - Despite revenue pressures, the company achieved a 20% year-on-year increase in operating cash flow, reaching 3.77 billion RMB, supported by effective working capital management [2]. - Inventory decreased by 4.5% year-on-year, and accounts receivable dropped by 43%, reducing cash consumption [2]. Future Outlook - The company holds a cautiously optimistic view for the new fiscal year, focusing on efficiency and profit improvement, with plans to continue cost reduction and efficiency enhancement [2]. - For FY26, the company expects net profit to remain flat year-on-year, with an improvement in net profit margin [3]. - The EPS forecast for FY26 has been revised down by 24% to 0.21 RMB, with an introduction of FY27 EPS forecast at 0.26 RMB [3]. - The current stock price corresponds to 13/11 times the FY26/27 earnings, with a target price of 3.10 HKD, reflecting a stable valuation [3].

Core Viewpoint - The company is maintaining a "buy" rating while focusing on high dividends and expanding in the running and outdoor sectors, despite a decline in revenue and net profit for FY2025 [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - FY2025 revenue is projected at 27.01 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.6% year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.286 billion yuan, down 41.9% [1] - The company has a high dividend payout ratio of 135% for the full year, with a cumulative payout ratio of 104.2% over the past six years [1] - Revised net profit forecasts for FY2026-2028 are 1.32 billion, 1.59 billion, and 1.85 billion yuan, respectively, down from previous estimates [1] Group 2: Sales and Revenue Breakdown - Main brand revenue for FY2025 is 23.31 billion yuan, a decline of 6.1%, accounting for 86.3% of total revenue, while other brand revenue is 3.5 billion yuan, down 9.9% [1] - Direct online sales have seen double-digit growth, increasing their share to 30-40% from 20-30% in FY2024 [1] - Retail and wholesale revenues decreased by 6.8% and 5.8%, respectively, indicating a challenging sales environment [1] Group 3: Store Management and Operations - As of FY2025, the number of stores is 5,020, a decrease of 18.3% year-on-year, with a focus on optimizing low-efficiency stores [2] - The average sales area per store has increased by 7.2%, reflecting a strategy of tailored store adjustments [2] - Inventory management has improved, with inventory down 4.5% to 6 billion yuan and inventory turnover days at 134.9 days, a slight improvement [2] Group 4: Profitability and Cost Management - FY2025 gross margin is 38.4%, down 3.4 percentage points, with a slight increase in expense ratio to 33.1% [2] - Operating profit margin (OPM) is 5.9%, and net profit margin is 4.8%, both showing declines [2] - The company has managed to maintain cash flow, with net cash increasing by 20% to 3.76 billion yuan, which is 2.6 times the net profit [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported its FY25 financial results, showing a revenue decline of 6.6% to 27.01 billion yuan and a net profit drop of 42% to 1.29 billion yuan, which aligns with expectations [1] Revenue and Profit Analysis - The decline in revenue and profit was primarily due to weak offline customer traffic and ongoing inventory destocking, despite positive growth from online channels [1] - The main brand revenue decreased by 6.1% to 23.31 billion yuan, while non-main brand revenue fell by 9.9% to 3.50 billion yuan [1] Dividend Distribution - The company plans to distribute a final dividend of 0.02 yuan per share and a special dividend of 0.12 yuan per share, totaling 0.28 yuan per share, with a payout ratio of 135.0% [1] Brand Performance - Professional sports brands showed stronger resilience, while casual sports brands were significantly impacted by consumer fatigue [1] - Recent partnerships with high-end running brand Soar and outdoor brand further enhance the company's market presence [1] Channel Performance - Direct sales revenue decreased by 6.8% to 23.03 billion yuan, with a significant drop in offline store traffic and a reduction in the number of stores by 18.3% to 5,020 [2] - Online business maintained double-digit growth, accounting for 30-40% of overall direct sales [2] Inventory and Cash Management - Inventory improved, with a year-on-year decrease of 4.5% and a cash flow from operating activities increasing by 20% to 3.76 billion yuan [2] - The company demonstrated strong cash management capabilities, with cash at the end of the period growing by 32.3% to 2.59 billion yuan [2] Profitability and Cost Control - Gross margin decreased by 3.4 percentage points to 38.4%, influenced by deeper discounts and changes in the sales mix [3] - Total expenses fell by 5.6%, with a slight increase in expense ratio despite a revenue decline [3] Strategic Partnerships and Market Outlook - The company has deepened cooperation with major brands like NIKE and Adidas, enhancing retail operations and channel optimization [4] - Profit forecasts for FY26-28 have been adjusted downwards, with expected net profits of 1.29 billion, 1.42 billion, and 1.55 billion yuan respectively [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company experienced a decline in revenue and net profit in FY2025, attributed to weak consumer demand and reduced foot traffic, but maintained strong cash flow supporting high dividend payouts [1][2][3] Group 1: Financial Performance - FY2025 revenue decreased by 6.6% year-on-year to 27.01 billion yuan, with retail channel revenue down 6.8% to 23.03 billion yuan and wholesale channel revenue down 5.8% to 3.79 billion yuan [1] - Net profit fell by 41.9% year-on-year to 1.29 billion yuan, with a gross margin decline of 3.4 percentage points to 38.4% due to increased promotional discounts and a higher proportion of low-margin online sales [1] - Operating cash flow increased by 20% year-on-year to 3.76 billion yuan, with a free cash flow to net profit ratio of 2.6 times, indicating efficient cash generation [1] Group 2: Operational Strategy - The company reduced its direct store count by 1,124 to 5,020, a decrease of 18.3% year-on-year, while total sales area declined by 12.4%, but single-store sales area increased by 7.2% [2] - Membership sales accounted for 93.2% of total sales, with high-value members contributing nearly 40% of sales, reflecting strong customer loyalty [2] - The company strategically entered the outdoor and professional sports market, becoming the exclusive operator for high-end brands like norda and Norrona in China [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - In Q4 FY2024, total sales for retail and wholesale businesses saw a mid-single-digit decline, with a more significant reduction in direct store area [3] - Management expressed cautious optimism for the new fiscal year, aiming for net profit to remain flat year-on-year while improving net profit margin through cost reduction and increased online channel sales [3] - The company adjusted its profit forecasts for FY2026-2028, expecting net profits of 1.30 billion, 1.46 billion, and 1.63 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a modest growth trajectory [3]