来源：智通财经网 国泰海通证券发文称，因近期美国政府的部分停摆，美国通胀数据推迟几天发布，却成为近期压低美元 走势的最后一棒；而在此之前，美国非农强劲一度支撑美元上涨。综合来看，美元短期因就业和通胀数 据拉锯反复震荡；但中期来看，通胀回落+地缘风险+美联储政策转向三大因素构成美元下行压力。非 美货币方面，欧元具备相对优势，而英镑则需警惕政治黑天鹅，短期或面临震荡。此外，黄金作为对冲 政策不确定性与地缘风险的双重工具，上涨的支撑仍将维持。 前美元走势正陷入"就业强、通胀弱"的拉锯之中。一方面，劳动力市场仍具韧性，限制美联储过早降息 的空间；另一方面，通胀已实质性回落至目标附近，且趋势性下行特征明显，为政策转向提供充分依 据。市场认为，后者更具主导性。历史经验表明，当核心通胀持续低于2.5%且无反弹迹象时，美联储 往往优先考虑增长与金融稳定风险，美联储降息的操作也变得水到渠成。叠加近期地缘政治紧张升级 ——特朗普政府宣布向中东增派第二航母战斗群以施压伊朗，避险需求进一步支撑黄金并压制美元。因 此，尽管非农数据短期提振美元，但中期看，降息预期仍将主导汇率方向。 欧元受益于美元回调及自身基本面改善。欧央行2月议息会议 ...

新春将至，正是各类资金往来密集、消费投资活跃的时期，同时也是非法金融活动高发频发时期。如何"守 好钱袋子，过好幸福年"？多家券商依托节日场景，开展了形式多样的基层投教活动。 有券商在社区办起新春游园会，居民通过参与金融知识大转盘、防非反诈知识问答等游戏，轻松学习金融知 识、掌握防非反诈核心要点；有券商开展"新春送福"活动，将合规理财与风险警示寓意巧妙融入书法作品；有 券商以MBTI人格测试逻辑为引，推出投资画像一键查活动。 券商中国记者从多位券商投教业务有关人士处了解到，这些"接地气、有温度"的投教活动，有效提高了投资者 参与度，比如有居民活动现场自发通过社交平台直播活动全过程。不过，受访人士也指出，要打破"节日限 定"的投教壁垒，实现投教长效化、常态化，还需要在形式创新、联动平台搭建等方面发力。 新春投教花样多 1月30日，西安市莲湖区铁塔寺社区迎来了一场特别的新春游园会活动。在装饰着灯笼、祥云图案、马年玩偶 等年味特色的展位前，来自中邮证券、开源证券、西部证券等证券期货机构的工作人员，忙着给居民分享养老 投资防诈技巧、高收益理财陷阱识别、理性投资理念等金融知识和相关案例。 据中邮证券投教业务有关人士向记者 ...

Inflation Overview - In January 2026, the US CPI year-on-year growth fell to 2.4%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, exceeding market expectations of 2.5%[9] - The month-on-month CPI growth decreased to 0.2%, down 0.1 percentage points, also surpassing market expectations of 0.3%[9] - Core CPI year-on-year growth decreased to 2.5%, while month-on-month growth increased to 0.3%, aligning with market expectations[9] Core Inflation Insights - The decline in overall inflation was primarily driven by falling energy and food prices, with energy prices dropping 1.5% month-on-month, contributing significantly to the overall CPI decrease[11] - Super core inflation, excluding food, energy, used cars, and rent, showed significant pressure, with a month-on-month increase of 0.5%, the highest since September 2022[18] - Core services, excluding energy services, saw a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, with notable rebounds in transportation and education services[21] Future Outlook - Future inflation may experience volatility, with potential rebounds in energy prices and used car prices expected in the coming months[23] - The average effective tariff rate in the US was 9.8% as of November 2025, indicating limited tariff increases, which may not significantly impact inflation in the short term[26] - Market expectations for Fed rate cuts remain at two times in 2026, with the first cut anticipated in June 2026[26] Risk Factors - Risks include potential geopolitical conflicts leading to surges in oil prices and unexpected changes in tariff or fiscal policies that could drive inflation higher[29]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: CSI 300 Enhanced Portfolio - **Model Construction Idea**: Enhance the performance of the CSI 300 index by selecting stocks with superior characteristics[5][13] - **Model Construction Process**: - Select stocks from the CSI 300 index - Apply quantitative factors to enhance stock selection - Construct the portfolio based on the enhanced stock selection - **Model Evaluation**: The model aims to outperform the CSI 300 index by leveraging quantitative factors[5][13] 2. Model Name: CSI 500 Enhanced Portfolio - **Model Construction Idea**: Enhance the performance of the CSI 500 index by selecting stocks with superior characteristics[5][13] - **Model Construction Process**: - Select stocks from the CSI 500 index - Apply quantitative factors to enhance stock selection - Construct the portfolio based on the enhanced stock selection - **Model Evaluation**: The model aims to outperform the CSI 500 index by leveraging quantitative factors[5][13] 3. Model Name: CSI 1000 Enhanced Portfolio - **Model Construction Idea**: Enhance the performance of the CSI 1000 index by selecting stocks with superior characteristics[5][13] - **Model Construction Process**: - Select stocks from the CSI 1000 index - Apply quantitative factors to enhance stock selection - Construct the portfolio based on the enhanced stock selection - **Model Evaluation**: The model aims to outperform the CSI 1000 index by leveraging quantitative factors[5][13] Model Backtesting Results CSI 300 Enhanced Portfolio - **Weekly Return**: 1.51%[13] - **Monthly Return**: 0.01%[15] - **Annual Return**: 6.86%[15] - **Excess Return**: 6.20%[15] CSI 500 Enhanced Portfolio - **Weekly Return**: 2.28%[13] - **Monthly Return**: 0.59%[15] - **Annual Return**: 11.77%[15] - **Excess Return**: 0.60%[15] CSI 1000 Enhanced Portfolio - **Weekly Return**: 2.32%[13] - **Monthly Return**: -0.14%[15] - **Annual Return**: 11.84%[15] - **Excess Return**: 3.81%[15] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Market Capitalization - **Factor Construction Idea**: Differentiate stocks based on their market capitalization[47] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Rank stocks by market capitalization - Construct long and short portfolios based on the top and bottom 10% of stocks - **Factor Evaluation**: Large-cap stocks outperformed small-cap stocks[47] 2. Factor Name: Price-to-Book Ratio (PB) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Differentiate stocks based on their PB ratio[47] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Rank stocks by PB ratio - Construct long and short portfolios based on the top and bottom 10% of stocks - **Factor Evaluation**: High PB stocks outperformed low PB stocks[47] 3. Factor Name: Price-to-Earnings Ratio (PE_TTM) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Differentiate stocks based on their PE ratio[47] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Rank stocks by PE ratio - Construct long and short portfolios based on the top and bottom 10% of stocks - **Factor Evaluation**: High PE stocks outperformed low PE stocks[47] Factor Backtesting Results Market Capitalization Factor - **Weekly Long-Short Return**: -0.69%[47] - **Monthly Long-Short Return**: 3.16%[47] - **Annual Long-Short Return**: 6.82%[48] Price-to-Book Ratio (PB) Factor - **Weekly Long-Short Return**: -2.58%[47] - **Monthly Long-Short Return**: -0.94%[47] - **Annual Long-Short Return**: -2.39%[48] Price-to-Earnings Ratio (PE_TTM) Factor - **Weekly Long-Short Return**: -2.15%[47] - **Monthly Long-Short Return**: -1.03%[47] - **Annual Long-Short Return**: -0.82%[48]

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Zhiyuan Technology, known as the "first stock of large models" in Hong Kong, surged over 138.68% within five trading days, indicating strong market interest and momentum for AI-related companies [2][3] Group 1: IPO Developments - Zhiyuan Technology has updated its A-share IPO guidance report, adding Guotai Junan Securities as a new advisor alongside CICC, enhancing its advisory team [3][5] - The company previously withdrew its IPO guidance submitted in April 2025 and is now aiming for a listing on the Shanghai Stock Exchange's Sci-Tech Innovation Board [5][6] - The rapid re-initiation of A-share IPO guidance reflects Zhiyuan's commitment to establishing a dual capital platform ("A+H") [7] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The competition among leading securities firms for IPO services in the AI sector is intensifying, with a focus on both speed and quality of submissions [3][12] - Guotai Junan Securities has a strong track record, having participated in 19 IPO projects on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board over the past three years, making it the top firm in terms of project count [8] - In contrast, CICC has been involved in 12 projects during the same period, highlighting the competitive dynamics between these top-tier firms [9] Group 3: Market Trends - The current environment allows unprofitable "hard tech" companies, including AI firms, to pursue IPOs, but the complexity of their technologies and business models leads to more rigorous scrutiny during the application process [14] - The collaboration between CICC and Guotai Junan Securities in past projects, such as the successful IPO of SMIC, showcases their established partnership in the hard tech sector [11][10]

/2012/2/2 更新时间2026/02/12 3月24日 09:10-10:00 中国宏观经济和政策展望 海 闻 - 北京大学校务委员会副主任、汇丰商学院创院院长 图明止芬 国泰海通)正泰2026春季贵路 3月24-26日 ·深圳 09:00-09:10 致辞 李俊杰 - 国泰海通总裁 10:00-10:40 美国经济和货币政策展望 特邀嘉宾 10:40-11:20 中东问题的现状和未来 廖百智 - 中国现代国际关系研究院中东研究所所长、研究员 主论坛 11:20-12:00 主题演讲 特邀嘉宾 3月24日 总量分会场:远望又新峰 1 3月24日 Al分会场:算力应用全面开花 2 Al渗透率提升,3 13:30-14:00 Al 营销的发展趋势 特邀嘉宾 14:00-14:30 Al 漫剧发展趋势 特邀嘉宾 14:30-15:00 Al 玩具的发展趋势 特邀嘉宾 15:00-15:30 Al 广告发展趋势 特邀嘉宾 15:30-16:00 Al 游戏工具 特邀嘉宾 16:00-16:30 游戏出海观察 特邀嘉宾 16:30-17:00 主题演讲 特邀嘉宾 13:30-14:00 记忆工程是基座大模型的迭代 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Zhipu has selected Guotai Junan and CICC to assist in its listing in Shanghai [1] Group 2 - The involvement of Guotai Junan and CICC indicates a strategic move to enhance Zhipu's market presence and access to capital [1]

证券ETF指数基金（516200）业绩比较基准为中证全指证券公司指数收益率，管理人为华安基金管理有 限公司，基金经理为苏卿云，成立（2021-03-09）以来回报为13.19%，近一个月回报为-5.46%。 2月13日，证券ETF指数基金（516200）开盘涨0.09%，报1.134元。证券ETF指数基金（516200）重仓股 方面，东方财富开盘涨0.18%，中信证券涨0.00%，国泰海通涨0.00%，华泰证券跌0.04%，广发证券涨 0.28%，招商证券涨0.00%，东方证券涨0.10%，兴业证券跌0.29%，申万宏源涨0.00%，中金公司涨 0.09%。 责任编辑：小浪快报 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文基于第三方数据库自动发布，不代表新浪财经观点，任何在本文 出现的信息均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建议。如有出入请以实际公告为准。如有疑问，请联系 biz@staff.sina.com.cn。 ...

每周 一 景 ：甘孜藏族自治州四川省贡嘎雪山 点击右上角菜单，收听朗读版 【 宏观 】美 国的"再通胀"之路 "K型分化"的来路 →"高净值群体"可以通过再融资贷款（cash-out refinance）将净资产变现，支撑消费端韧性和美股流动性，所以当新旧贷款利差（再融资扩张的边际成本）收 窄，再融资扩张动能显著增强；而"新举债群体"刚好反过来，需要用现金流和债务来换资产，若经济预期未出现趋势性扭转，则该群体对利率的敏感度偏弱。 这是美国经济"K型分化"本质："高净值群体"对应的美股代表上端，"新举债群体"对应的地产代表下端。 "再通胀"的归途 当"K型分化"转向"再 通 胀" →我们观察到，近期美国"K型分化"的下端正在向上端靠拢。也就是说，"高净值群体"通过再融资贷款扩张，稳定了实体经济和资产价格预期，为"新举债群 体"扩张创造了良好条件，从而实现"先富带后富"。而下端对应的住房部门，恰好是"通胀之源"。美国经济似乎正在从"K型分化"向"再通胀"悄然切换。 通胀预期的"自我强化"机制 →实际上，需求端主导的通胀预期具有"自我强化"机制。一是通胀预期强化能够被动压低实际利率，二是信用利差（抵押贷款利率-国债 ...

报告导读： 博弈偏股条款，挖掘偏高利差。 产业永续债的发行主要以降低企业杠杆率为目标，过去有两轮发行与净融资的高峰 。 （ 1 ） 2018 年 -2020 年，《关于加强国有企业资产负债约束的指导 意见》的落地，推动国有企业平均资产负债率到 2020 年年末比 2017 年年末降低 2 个百分点左右，产业永续债发行规模逐年抬升，每年的净融资规模在 4000 亿元左右。（ 2 ） 2023 年至今，部分资产负债率较高的央国企仍有降负债需求，利差收窄背景下企业发行动力抬升，每年净融资规模在 2000- 3000 亿元之间。叠加产业永续债偿还规模攀升，借新还旧的规模亦有所抬升，产业永续债的发行规模持续扩容， 2025 年创下发行规模新高。 近两年产业永续债发行期限中， 5+N 的占比有所抬升，发行期限的变化整体分为三个阶段 ： （ 1 ） 2018 年 -2020 年， 3+N 期限成为绝对主品种，连 续 3 年占比在 70% 以上，（ 2 ） 2021 年 -2023 年， 3+N 仍为主品种，但 2+N 占比抬升明显， 2022 年末的理财负反馈冲击信用债情绪，机构行为偏 好以短为主。（ 3 ） 2024 年 ...