专题：资本市场大咖2026新春献词：骏马踏春来 驭势稳行启新程 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 恭贺新春 我非常荣幸受邀参与《证券市场周刊》马年致辞活动，在此向周刊同仁及广大投资者朋友致以最诚挚的 新春祝福！祝愿大家在新的一年里万事顺遂、机遇常伴；在投资之路上稳健前行，收获满满硕果。 值此2026年开篇之际，我们不妨一起展望中国创新药的全球进阶之路。我们认为，创新药是当下百年一 遇的投资机会——这不仅缘于全球未被满足的医疗需求持续扩容，更在于中国创新药首次实现了"从跟 跑到并跑、向领跑进阶"的产业质变，已迈入全球竞争力凸显的黄金发展期，向上动能持续迸发。 回望2025年，中国创新药对外授权（BD）交易迎来井喷式增长：总金额达1357亿美元（2024年为519亿 美元），首付款70亿美元（2024年为41亿美元），交易总量157起，各项数据均创下历史新高。而2026 年仅一个月，交易总量已经高达300亿美元，30亿美元首付款。这一爆发背后，是国际原研药企对重磅 创新药的迫切需求，叠加中国首创FIC（First-in-Class）药物的快速推进，直接推动跨国药企从中国药企 ...

| 股票名称 | 净流入(元)↓ | 净流入比 | 收盘价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 腾讯控股(00700) | 43.16 亿 | 22.17% | 547.500（-1.97%） | | 阿里巴巴-W(09988) | 16.58 亿 | 13.70% | 155.000（-2.88%） | | 泡泡玛特(09992) | 5.88 亿 | 17.52% | 243.200（+0.33%） | | 南方恒生科技(03033) | 5.09 亿 | 4.36% | 5.230（-0.95%） | | 美团-W(03690) | 4.96 亿 | 13.72% | 91.400（-2.56%） | | 中芯国际(00981) | 4.47 亿 | 12.44% | 67.600（+0.22%） | | 中国海洋石油(00883) | 4.10 亿 | 19.38% | 24.020（+1.87%） | | 中国移动(00941) | 3.80 亿 | 23.11% | 80.200（-0.25%） | | 中国石油股份(00857) | 2.97 亿 | 28.80% | 9 ...

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market showed initial gains but narrowed its increase, with the Hang Seng Index closing up 0.58% above 27,000 points, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index and Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 0.81% and 0.62% respectively [1][2]. Sector Performance - Technology stocks rebounded, driven by AI application stocks, with the stock of Reading Group surging over 15%. The film and entertainment sector remained active, and the biopharmaceutical sector saw widespread gains, led by Fuhong Hanlin [3][4]. - New consumption concept stocks, paper industry stocks, home appliance stocks, shipping stocks, and automotive stocks mostly increased. Conversely, education stocks faced declines, with gaming stocks collectively sluggish, and real estate, gas, electric, and telecom stocks also underperformed [3][4]. Notable Stocks - AI application stocks saw significant gains, with Reading Group rising 15.41%, and Zhiyun up 14.81%, reaching a new historical high during the session. Other stocks like Fubo Group and Yidu Technology also experienced increases [6][8]. - In the film sector, Orange Sky Entertainment rose over 7%, with other companies like Damai Entertainment and Ningmeng Film also following suit [10]. - The biopharmaceutical sector was buoyed by Fuhong Hanlin's increase of over 7%, with other companies like WuXi Biologics and WuXi AppTec also seeing gains [12]. Industry Insights - The real estate sector faced pressure, with Shimao Group dropping over 6% amid ongoing sales challenges in the industry. Major real estate companies are reportedly initiating organizational restructuring [13][14]. - Education stocks struggled, with Guangzheng Education falling over 5%, alongside declines in New Oriental and other educational institutions [15]. Investment Outlook - According to Everbright Securities, the current liquidity environment in the Hong Kong stock market is entering an observation period, with limited space for further tightening. Positive catalysts could lead to a recovery in market sentiment and capital inflow [22].

（来源：科创100ETF基金） 港股震荡走高，恒生指数、恒生科技指数双双涨超1%，AI应用、创新药板块领涨。阅文集团、智谱涨 超6%，康方生物、信达生物涨超3%。 来源：市场资讯 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The proportion of driver gene-negative non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients is approximately 31% in both China and the United States, indicating a significant market opportunity for treatments targeting this demographic [2][15] - The estimated market size for immune drugs used in first-line treatment of driver gene-negative NSCLC is projected to be around 7.5 billion CNY (approximately 1.1 billion USD) in China and 18 billion CNY (approximately 2.7 billion USD) in the United States by 2030 [2] - The current first-line treatment for advanced driver gene-negative NSCLC primarily relies on PD(L)-1 inhibitors combined with chemotherapy, but there are limitations in long-term efficacy and options for patients intolerant to chemotherapy [3] Summary by Sections Section 1: NSCLC Global Overview - Lung cancer is the leading cancer type globally, with new cases accounting for approximately 12% of all cancer cases in 2022, translating to about 2.5 million new lung cancer cases [10] - In China, lung cancer represents about 22% of new cancer cases, with approximately 1.06 million new cases in 2022 [10] Section 2: Market Potential for Driver Gene-Negative NSCLC - The report highlights the significant market potential for immune therapies in treating driver gene-negative NSCLC, with a focus on the limitations of current treatment options [2][3] Section 3: Next-Generation Immunotherapy Approaches - The report discusses the advancements in dual (multi) antibody therapies and immune-oncology (IO) combined with antibody-drug conjugates (ADC), emphasizing their potential to improve treatment outcomes for patients with driver gene-negative NSCLC [5][8] - The clinical data supporting these new therapies is expected to catalyze further investment and development in this area [5] Section 4: Treatment Guidelines Comparison - The report compares treatment guidelines for driver gene-negative NSCLC between the United States and China, noting differences in treatment stratification and recommended therapies [32][34] - The U.S. guidelines emphasize PD-L1 expression levels, while Chinese guidelines focus more on performance status (PS) [32][34] Section 5: Future Catalysts - Key upcoming clinical data releases and studies are highlighted as potential catalysts for investment opportunities in the sector, particularly regarding dual antibodies and ADC therapies [5][8]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Innovative Drug ETF (159567) has shown a slight increase in performance, with a closing rise of 0.79% and a trading volume of 849 million yuan on February 6, 2024 [1]. Group 1: Fund Overview - The Hong Kong Innovative Drug ETF (159567) was established on January 3, 2024, with an annual management fee of 0.50% and a custody fee of 0.10% [1]. - As of February 5, 2024, the fund's total shares stood at 10.244 billion, with a total size of 7.906 billion yuan, reflecting a 2.36% decrease in shares and a 0.13% increase in size since December 31, 2023 [1]. Group 2: Liquidity and Trading Activity - Over the last 20 trading days, the cumulative trading amount for the ETF reached 21.573 billion yuan, with an average daily trading amount of 1.079 billion yuan [1]. - Since the beginning of the year, the ETF has recorded a cumulative trading amount of 29.237 billion yuan over 25 trading days, averaging 1.169 billion yuan per day [1]. Group 3: Fund Management - The current fund manager is Ma Jun, who has managed the fund since its inception, achieving a return of 56.50% during the management period [1]. Group 4: Top Holdings - The top holdings of the Hong Kong Innovative Drug ETF (159567) include: - CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (10.44% holding, 108 million shares, market value of 825 million yuan) [2] - BeiGene (9.91% holding, 4.8299 million shares, market value of 782 million yuan) [2] - CanSino Biologics (9.72% holding, 7.52 million shares, market value of 768 million yuan) [2] - China Biologic Products (9.66% holding, 13.7 million shares, market value of 763 million yuan) [2] - Innovent Biologics (9.53% holding, 10.9295 million shares, market value of 753 million yuan) [2] - Other notable holdings include 3SBio, Hansoh Pharmaceutical, and Kelun-Biotech [2].

Investment Rating - The report provides an "Outperform" rating for multiple companies in the healthcare sector, including BeiGene, JD Health, WuXi Biologics, and others, indicating a positive outlook for these stocks [1]. Core Insights - The macro and industry environment is improving due to the resolution of policy uncertainties, the release of significant clinical data, and a resurgence in global M&A activity, leading to a notable increase in investor sentiment towards innovative drugs for 2026 [4][11]. - In oncology, the PD-1/VEGF dual antibody approach is transitioning from "mechanism validation" to "clinical and industrial resonance," with multiple global Phase III trials underway, expected to catalyze approvals and data releases within the year [5][17]. - The metabolic sector is seeing growth in the cash-pay market for GLP-1 drugs, driven by limited insurance coverage and high out-of-pocket costs, prompting companies to enhance accessibility through direct sales and pricing adjustments [6][25]. - In the autoimmune space, there is a growing concentration risk among major products from multinational corporations (MNCs), with new antibody platforms expected to yield significant data in 2026, potentially leading to new business development opportunities [7]. - The central nervous system (CNS) investment focus remains on advancing Aβ monoclonal antibody treatments, with key data expected to open up early intervention market opportunities [9]. Summary by Sections Oncology - The PD-1/VEGF dual antibody's clinical and industrial certainty is strengthening, with major companies conducting multiple global Phase III trials across high-value indications [17]. - The Pan-RAS precision therapy is entering a realization phase, with key Phase III data expected in 2026 for pancreatic cancer and NSCLC [22]. Metabolic - The cash-pay market for GLP-1 drugs is expanding due to limited insurance coverage, with companies like Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk adopting different direct-to-consumer strategies to enhance accessibility [25][26]. - Small nucleic acid therapies are expected to upgrade treatment paradigms, showing competitive data in weight loss and safety profiles when combined with GLP-1 [30]. Autoimmune - MNCs are increasingly reliant on a few blockbuster products, with structural opportunities arising from new antibody platforms expected to report data in 2026 [7]. - The trend towards oral formulations in autoimmune diseases is gaining traction, offering advantages in adherence and competitive differentiation [7]. CNS - The focus in CNS remains on Aβ monoclonal antibody treatments, with advancements expected to shift treatment towards earlier intervention populations [9]. - New delivery methods, such as systemic administration of small nucleic acids, are being explored as complementary approaches [9].

2月6日，南下资金今日净买入148.59亿港元。 其中，腾讯控股、阿里巴巴分别获净买入43.24亿港元、16.56亿港元；康方生物、长飞光纤光缆分别净 卖出3.06亿港元、0.79亿港元。 中海油：财信证券指出，当前大宗商品行情仍处于扩圈阶段，目前金价相对油价、铜价已经明显超涨， 再考虑到黄金价格易涨难跌，预计2026年原油、工业金属价格大概率有补涨行情，但近期大宗商品波动 可能加大。 中国移动：从中国时空信息集团获悉，近日，中国时空携手三大通信运营商推出北斗短信业务，基于中 国时空服务能力，中国移动、中国电信、中国联通均支持北斗短信业务。此外，摩根大通认为，三大运 营商受增值税税率上调影响，2026年净利润预计承压，其中中国移动因利润率较高受冲击相对较小。运 营商将通过提价、成本优化及AI云业务增长抵消负面影响；目前股价回调后，高股息率仍具吸引力， 维持"增持"评级。 钧达股份：近日，受马斯克团队相关调研消息带动，太空光伏概念持续引爆市场。但中国光伏行业协会 执行秘书长刘译阳近日表示，目前太空光伏技术仍处于探索和验证的初期阶段，确定明确的技术方向为 时尚早。无论何种技术路线如何演进，真正走向落地，离不开一个 ...

来源：市场资讯 （来源：科创100ETF基金） 南向资金今日净买入148.59亿港元。腾讯控股、阿里巴巴-W分别获净买入约43.24亿港元、16.56亿港 元；康方生物、长飞光纤（601869）光缆分别遭净卖出3.06亿港元、0.79亿港元。 ...

Group 1 - Southbound funds recorded a net purchase of approximately 148.59 billion HKD today [1] - Tencent Holdings received a net purchase of about 43.24 billion HKD, ranking first among the stocks [1] - Alibaba-W also saw a net purchase of approximately 16.56 billion HKD [1] Group 2 - Kangfang Biologics experienced a net sell-off of 3.06 billion HKD [1]