证券研究报告·公司点评报告(AH)·炼化及贸易 中国石化（600028.SH）/中国石油化工股份 （00386.HK） 2024 年一季报点评：经营情况整体向好，高 2024 年 04月 29日 股息率突出 证券分析师 陈淑娴 买入(维持)-A /买入(维持)-H 执业证书：S0600523020004 chensx@dwzq.com.cn 盈[T 利ab 预le_ 测EP 与S 估] 值 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 研究助理 何亦桢 营业总收入（百万元） 3,318,168 3,212,215 3,472,945 3,487,303 3,564,530 执业证书：S0600123050015 heyzh@dwzq.com.cn 同比（%） 21.06 (3.19) 8.12 0.41 2.21 归母净利润（百万元） 67,082 60,463 66,951 69,854 70,635 行业走势 同比（%） (5.79) (9.87) 10.73 4.34 1.12 中国石化 沪深300 EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） 0.55 0.50 0.55 0.57 0.58 3% P/E ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Views - The report highlights stable performance and a high dividend payout ratio, with a projected EPS of 0.60, 0.61, and 0.62 for 2024-2026 [5][20] - The company has shown a significant improvement in net profit on a quarter-on-quarter basis, with a 144.3% increase in Q1 2024 compared to the previous quarter [4][7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 789.97 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.2% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 18.316 billion yuan, down 8.9% year-on-year but up 144.3% quarter-on-quarter [4][7] - The average Brent oil price for the first quarter was 81.88 USD/barrel, which is relatively stable and above 80 USD/barrel [8][11] Business Segments - **Exploration and Production**: The exploration and production segment maintained stable revenue of 80.615 billion yuan, with operating profit increasing by 9.0% year-on-year and 142.1% quarter-on-quarter [11] - **Refining**: The refining segment generated revenue of 375.075 billion yuan, up 1.8% year-on-year, with a significant quarter-on-quarter profit increase of 324.0% [14] - **Chemicals**: The chemicals segment reported revenue of 125.36 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, but incurred an operating loss of 1.564 billion yuan, although this was an improvement from the previous quarter [17] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The expected EPS for 2024-2026 is projected at 0.60, 0.61, and 0.62 yuan, with a book value per share (BPS) of 6.93 yuan for 2024 [20] - The report suggests a reasonable valuation range of 6.93 to 7.62 yuan based on a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.0-1.1 times and a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 12-13 times for 2024 [20]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both A-shares and H-shares of Sinopec (600028.SH/0386.HK) [2][15] Core Views - The Q1 performance shows significant improvement, with a total revenue of 790 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.17%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is 18.3 billion yuan, down 8.88% year-on-year but up 144% quarter-on-quarter [6][7][14]. Summary by Sections Q1 Performance Overview - In Q1 2024, Sinopec's total revenue reached 790 billion yuan, reflecting a slight year-on-year decline of 0.17% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 18.3 billion yuan, down 8.88% year-on-year but showing a significant quarter-on-quarter increase of 144% [6][7]. Business Segment Analysis 1. **Upstream Business**: - The upstream segment achieved an EBITDA of 14.8 billion yuan, up 11% year-on-year and 142% quarter-on-quarter, driven by ongoing efforts to increase reserves and production [8][11]. - Oil production was 70.36 million barrels, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%, while natural gas production reached 350.46 billion cubic feet, up 6% year-on-year [8][11]. 2. **Refining Business**: - The refining segment reported an EBITDA of 6.9 billion yuan, down 34.2% year-on-year but up 480% quarter-on-quarter, attributed to improved demand for refined products [9][10]. - The total crude oil processed was 63.3 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.7% [9][10]. 3. **Sales and Distribution**: - The sales segment achieved an EBITDA of 8.7 billion yuan, up 2.4% year-on-year and 210.6% quarter-on-quarter, benefiting from integrated operations and market expansion efforts [10][11]. 4. **Chemical Business**: - The chemical segment reported an EBITDA of -1.6 billion yuan, a reduction in losses compared to previous periods, with production figures showing mixed results across various products [11][12]. Capital Expenditure and Shareholder Returns - In Q1 2024, Sinopec's capital expenditure was 20.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 12% year-on-year, with plans for a total capital expenditure of 173 billion yuan for the year [12][13]. - The company has initiated share buybacks, having repurchased 143.5 million A-shares and 44.35 million H-shares, reflecting confidence in future growth [13][14]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts net profits for 2024-2026 to be 70.4 billion, 75.2 billion, and 80.2 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.58, 0.62, and 0.66 yuan per share [14][16].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) is "Recommended" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company reported Q1 2024 results with operating revenue of 789.97 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.17% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.43%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 18.32 billion yuan, down 8.88% year-on-year but up 144.31% quarter-on-quarter [3] - Significant progress in increasing reserves, production, and efficiency was noted, with upstream business showing notable improvement. The exploration and development, refining, and marketing segments achieved operating profits of 14.01 billion, 6.97 billion, and 8.00 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of 9.0%, -33.0%, and 1.0% [3] - The downstream business faced pressure due to cost and supply factors, with a total crude oil processing volume of 63.30 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.7%, and total refined oil sales of 59.81 million tons, up 6.5% year-on-year [3] - The company maintains a high dividend payout ratio, with a projected dividend payout ratio of 72.10% for 2023. The planned capital expenditure for 2024 is 173 billion yuan, the highest in nearly a decade [3] - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are 3,373.63 billion, 3,402.61 billion, and 3,412.66 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 63.74 billion, 71.39 billion, and 75.98 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 5.42%, 12.00%, and 6.43% [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2024 operating revenue was 789.97 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.17% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.43% [3] - Q1 2024 net profit attributable to shareholders was 18.32 billion yuan, down 8.88% year-on-year but up 144.31% quarter-on-quarter [3] Business Segments - Upstream exploration and development achieved significant improvements, with a production volume of 128.78 million barrels, a year-on-year increase of 3.4% [3] - The refining segment's performance declined, attributed to narrowing refining margins [3] - The chemical segment reported an operating loss of 1.56 billion yuan, with losses narrowing by 12.1% year-on-year [3] Future Outlook - The company plans to increase exploration efforts and enhance quality reserves, with a target production of 279.06 million barrels of crude oil and 1,379.7 billion cubic feet of natural gas for 2024 [3] - The refining segment aims to process 260 million tons of crude oil and produce 159 million tons of refined oil in 2024 [3] - The chemical business will focus on developing new advantages in cost, added value, and green low-carbon initiatives, with a production target of 14.35 million tons of ethylene [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the company, with a target price of 6.54 yuan [2][7] Core Views - The company's exploration business maintains high profitability due to stable crude oil prices and increased natural gas production, with EBIT growing by 11.0% YoY in Q1 2024 [1] - Refining profitability declined due to lower refined oil prices, with refining EBIT dropping by 34.2% YoY in Q1 2024 [1] - Chemical business losses narrowed due to cost control measures, with EBIT improving to -16.09 billion yuan in Q1 2024 [1] - Marketing and distribution business showed steady growth, with overseas sales volume increasing by 22.8% YoY and EBIT rising by 2.4% in Q1 2024 [1] - Domestic demand recovery is expected to drive profitability improvements in refining and chemical businesses [1] Financial Performance Summary Revenue and Profit - Q1 2024 revenue was 789.97 billion yuan, down 0.2% YoY [1] - Q1 2024 net profit attributable to shareholders was 18.32 billion yuan, down 8.9% YoY [1] - 2024E revenue is projected at 3.46 trillion yuan, up 7.6% YoY [2] - 2024E net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted at 70.41 billion yuan, up 16.4% YoY [2] Exploration and Development - Crude oil production reached 70.36 million barrels in Q1 2024, up 1.3% YoY [1] - Natural gas production was 350.5 billion cubic feet in Q1 2024, up 6.0% YoY [1] - Exploration and development EBIT was 14.82 billion yuan in Q1 2024, up 11.0% YoY [1] Refining - Refined oil production was 38.83 million tons in Q1 2024, up 4.1% YoY [1] - Refining cash operating cost decreased by 5.0% to 3.83 USD/barrel in Q1 2024 [1] - Refining EBIT was 6.89 billion yuan in Q1 2024, down 34.2% YoY [1] Chemical - Ethylene production was 3.28 million tons in Q1 2024, down 2.0% YoY [1] - Chemical unit processing cost decreased by 10.3% to 1,370 yuan/ton in Q1 2024 [1] - Chemical EBIT was -1.61 billion yuan in Q1 2024, with losses narrowing [1] Marketing and Distribution - Domestic refined oil sales volume was 45.58 million tons in Q1 2024, up 2.3% YoY [1] - Overseas refined oil sales volume was 14.23 million tons in Q1 2024, up 22.8% YoY [1] - Marketing and distribution EBIT was 8.68 billion yuan in Q1 2024, up 2.4% YoY [1] Valuation and Forecast - 2024E EPS is projected at 0.58 yuan/share, with a PE ratio of 11x [2] - 2025E EPS is forecasted at 0.61 yuan/share, with a PE ratio of 11x [2] - 2026E EPS is expected to reach 0.64 yuan/share, with a PE ratio of 10x [2] - PB ratio is projected at 0.9x for 2024-2026 [2] Historical Performance - 2023 revenue was 3.21 trillion yuan, down 3.2% YoY [5] - 2023 net profit attributable to shareholders was 60.46 billion yuan, down 9.9% YoY [5] - 2023 ROE was 7.50%, with a net profit margin of 1.88% [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Sinopec (600028.SH) [1] Core Views - Sinopec's Q1 2024 performance aligns with expectations, with a revenue of 789.97 billion RMB, a slight decrease of 0.2% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 18.19 billion RMB, down 7.8% year-on-year [1][4] - The refined oil sales segment is expected to maintain strong momentum, with total refined oil sales volume reaching 59.81 million tons in Q1 2024, an increase of 6.5% year-on-year [1][7] - The upstream oil and gas exploration and development segment is projected to see stable performance, with crude oil production increasing by 1.3% year-on-year to 70.36 million barrels in Q1 2024 [1][9] - The chemical segment is currently under pressure but may rebound with economic recovery, as evidenced by a reduction in losses to 1.61 billion RMB in Q1 2024 [1][8] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In Q1 2024, Sinopec reported a revenue of 789.97 billion RMB, a decrease of 0.2% year-on-year, and a net profit of 18.19 billion RMB, down 7.8% year-on-year, which meets market expectations [1][4] Operational Analysis - The refined oil sales segment is expected to remain robust, with Q1 2024 crude oil processing volume at 63.30 million tons, up 1.7% year-on-year, and refined oil production of 16.22 million tons for gasoline, 14.75 million tons for diesel, and 7.86 million tons for kerosene [1][5] - The total refined oil sales volume in Q1 2024 reached 59.81 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.5% [1][7] - The upstream oil and gas exploration and development segment is expected to see stable growth, with capital expenditure of 13.5 billion RMB in Q1 2024, a decrease of 9.88% year-on-year [1][8] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report projects net profits for Sinopec to be 68 billion RMB, 70.3 billion RMB, and 75.3 billion RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.56 RMB, 0.58 RMB, and 0.62 RMB [1][3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Sinopec (600028.SH) is "Buy," consistent with the previous rating of "Buy" [1]. Core Views - The report highlights that Sinopec's operations remain stable in Q1 2024, with significant achievements in increasing reserves and production while reducing costs and improving efficiency [3]. - The average Brent crude oil price in Q1 2024 was $81 per barrel, showing a decline of approximately 1% year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter [3]. - The upstream segment achieved an operating profit of 12.706 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11%, while the refining segment's profit decreased by 35% [3]. - The report anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of 80.582 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 33.3% [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, Sinopec reported operating revenue of 789.967 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.17% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.43% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 18.316 billion yuan, down 8.88% year-on-year but up 144.31% quarter-on-quarter [2]. - The basic earnings per share (EPS) was 0.15 yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 8.93% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 150% [2]. Operational Highlights - The upstream exploration and development segment made significant progress in increasing reserves and production, with a total oil and gas equivalent output of 18.12 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.4% [3]. - The crude oil production reached 7.036 million barrels, up 1.3% year-on-year, while natural gas production was 9.9 billion cubic meters, up 6.0% [3]. - The refining segment processed 6.33 million tons of crude oil, a year-on-year increase of 1.7%, and produced 3.883 million tons of refined oil, up 4.1% [4]. Capital Expenditure - Total capital expenditure was 20.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.9 billion yuan year-on-year [5]. - The capital expenditure focus remains on upstream reserve and production enhancement as well as refining and chemical efficiency improvements [5]. Profit Forecast - The forecasted net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 80.582 billion yuan, 90.334 billion yuan, and 101.258 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.66 yuan, 0.74 yuan, and 0.83 yuan [5].

中国石油化工股份有限公司 2024 年第一季度报告 2024年 4 月 28日 ...

中国石油化工股份有限公司 以自筹资金预先投入募集资金投资项目及支付发行费用情况报告的鉴证报告 按照《上市公司监管指引第 2 号 ——上市公司募集资金管理和使用的监管要求 (2022 年 修订) 》和上海证券交易所发布的《上海证券交易所上市公司自律监管指引第 1 号 -- 规范 运作》的要求，中国石化编制了情况报告。按照情况报告第二部分所述的编制基础编制情况报 告是中国石化管理层的责任，这种责任包括设计、执行和维护与情况报告编制相关的内部控 制，以及保证情况报告内容的真实、准确、完整，不存在虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 KPMG Huazhen LLP 8th Floor, KPMG Tower Oriental Plaza 1 East Chang An Avenue Beijing 100738 China Telephone +86 (10) 8508 5000 +86 (10) 8518 5111 Fax Internet kpmg.com/cn 近松椰星古外柴井窗口出 (特殊普通合伙) 中国北京 东长安街1号 东方广场毕马威大楼8层 邮政编码:100738 电话 +86(10)8508 5000 ...

应出席会议的董事 9 人，实际出席会议的董事 9 人。会议的召集和召开符合有关 法律和《中国石油化工股份有限公司章程》（简称"《公司章程》"）的规定。会议审议通 过了如下事项及议案： 一、关于使用募集资金置换预先投入自筹资金的议案。 股票代码：600028 股票简称：中国石化 公告编号：2024-17 中国石油化工股份有限公司 第八届董事会第二十二次会议决议公告 中国石化董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈 述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 中国石油化工股份有限公司（简称"中国石化"或"公司"）第八届董事会第二 十二次会议（简称"会议"）于 2024 年 4 月 18 日发出书面通知和书面材料，于 2024 年 4 月 28 日以电子通讯方式召开。 董事会同意公司使用募集资金人民币 1,215,422,591.73 元置换预先投入的自筹资 金。 详见公司同日披露的《关于使用募集资金置换预先投入自筹资金的公告》。 二、关于聘任公司总裁的议案。 由于工作原因，喻宝才先生辞去中国石化总裁职务，喻宝才先生确认其与中国石 化董事会无不同意见，亦无任何有关其辞任总裁须 ...