供给收缩叠加大宗叙事，持续看好煤炭板块表现 煤炭 证券研究报告/行业定期报告 2026 年 02 月 28 日 评级： 增持（维持） 执业证书编号：S0740522040001 Email：duchong@zts.com.cn | 基本状况 | | | --- | --- | | 上市公司数 | 37 | | 行业总市值(亿元) | 20,999.46 | | 行业流通市值(亿元) | 20,568.53 | 布局弹性标的》2026-02-07 有望上行推荐弹性》2026-02-07 2026-02-02 | 增持（维持） 评级： | | | 重点公司基本状况 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 简称 | 股价 | | | EPS | | | | | PE | | | 评级 | | 分析师：杜冲 | | | （元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 202 ...

煤炭ETF（515220）业绩比较基准为中证煤炭指数收益率，管理人为国泰基金管理有限公司，基金经理 为吴中昊，成立（2020-01-20）以来回报为173.17%，近一个月回报为6.21%。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文基于第三方数据库自动发布，不代表新浪财经观点，任何在本文 出现的信息均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建议。如有出入请以实际公告为准。如有疑问，请联系 biz@staff.sina.com.cn。 2月27日，截止午间收盘，煤炭ETF（515220）涨1.45%，报1.186元，成交额3.12亿元。煤炭ETF （515220）重仓股方面，中国神华截止午盘涨0.29%，陕西煤业涨0.60%，兖矿能源涨1.53%，中煤能源 涨3.29%，山西焦煤涨1.12%，华阳股份涨1.55%，美锦能源涨2.99%，潞安环能涨2.61%，淮北矿业涨 0.52%，平煤股份涨0.92%。 来源：新浪基金∞工作室 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal mining industry [4] Core Views - The coal market is expected to perform well post-holiday, driven by domestic price increases as demand shifts towards domestic coal procurement due to rising overseas prices [1][7] - The focus for the coal market this year is on overseas developments rather than domestic factors, with potential "black swan" events in the overseas market, particularly related to U.S. demand and Indonesian production cuts, being crucial for price movements [2] - The report emphasizes the importance of Indonesian coal supply and its impact on global coal prices, suggesting that significant production cuts could lead to a tight global coal market and higher prices [2] Summary by Sections Market Review - The CITIC Coal Index reached 3940.86 points, up 1.86%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 1.5 percentage points during the week of February 9 to February 13, 2026 [77] - Domestic coal production was largely halted during the holiday, but overseas coal prices continued to rise, leading to an expectation of increased domestic prices as demand shifts [1][7] Key Areas of Analysis - **Thermal Coal**: Supply constraints have led to stable price increases before the holiday, with port inventories declining and daily consumption at power plants decreasing [11][27][30] - **Coking Coal**: Prices remained stable as downstream inventory replenishment ended, with a focus on the impact of Mongolian coal imports [35][42] - **Coke**: The market is expected to remain stable post-holiday, with attention on downstream demand recovery [53][75] Key Companies - The report highlights several companies as key investment targets, including: - China Shenhua (601088.SH) with a "Buy" rating and projected EPS growth [9] - Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry (601225.SH) also rated "Buy" [9] - New Energy (601918.SH) and Jinneng Holding (601001.SH) with "Buy" ratings [9] - Companies with overseas operations such as China Qinfa (Indonesia), Power Development (South Africa), and Yancoal Australia are noted for their potential benefits from overseas market dynamics [10]

Group 1 - The coal ETF (515220) experienced a decline of 1.12%, closing at 1.151 yuan with a trading volume of 303 million yuan [1] - Major holdings in the coal ETF showed mixed performance, with China Shenhua down 2.42%, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry down 2.44%, and Yanzhou Coal Mining down 0.80%, while Shanxi Coking Coal increased by 0.28% [1] - The coal ETF's performance benchmark is the CSI Coal Index return, managed by Guotai Asset Management, with a return of 172.28% since its inception on January 20, 2020, and a return of 6.49% over the past month [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company has announced a change in its signing accountants for the 2025 fiscal year, appointing new auditors from the same firm due to internal adjustments within the auditing firm [1][5]. Group 1: Change of Signing Accountants - The company held board meetings on December 15, 2025, and a shareholder meeting on December 31, 2025, to approve the change of auditing firm to Grant Thornton [1]. - The new signing accountants appointed are Wang Huachen and Wang Huijun, replacing the previous auditors Wang Gaolin and Zhang Xiaoling due to internal adjustments at Grant Thornton [1]. Group 2: New Signing Accountants' Background - Wang Huachen has been a certified public accountant since 2004, has been involved in auditing listed companies since 2013, and has been with Grant Thornton since 2022 [2]. - Wang Huijun became a certified public accountant in 2020, has been involved in auditing listed companies since 2013, and started working at Grant Thornton in 2025 [2]. Group 3: Integrity Records - Both Wang Huachen and Wang Huijun have not faced any criminal penalties or disciplinary actions from regulatory bodies in the past three years [3]. - They have not received any administrative penalties or supervision measures from the China Securities Regulatory Commission or self-regulatory organizations [3]. Group 4: Independence - Both new signing accountants comply with the independence requirements set forth in the Code of Ethics for Chinese Certified Public Accountants [4]. Group 5: Impact on the Company - The transition to the new signing accountants has been orderly, and it is expected that this change will not adversely affect the company's financial statements or internal control audit for the 2025 fiscal year [5].

证券代码：601666 证券简称：平煤股份 编号：2026-014 平顶山天安煤业股份有限公司 关于变更签字会计师的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈 述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 平顶山天安煤业股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）分别于 2025 年 12 月 15 日召开第九届董事会第四十八次会议、2025 年 12 月 31 日召开 2025 年第四次临时股东会，审议通过了《关于变更会计师事 务所的议案》，同意聘任致同会计师事务所（特殊普通合伙）（以下 简称"致同会计师事务所"）为公司 2025 年度审计机构。具体内容 详见公司于 2025 年 12 月 16 日在上海证券交易所网站披露的《平煤 股份关于变更会计师事务所的公告》（公告编号：2025-090）。 近日，公司收到致同会计师事务所出具的《关于变更公司签字注 册会计师的告知函》，现将具体情况公告如下： 一、本次变更签字会计师的情况 2022 年开始在致同会计师事务所执业，具备相应专业胜任能力。 王慧军，2020 年成为注册会计师，2013 年起从事上市公司审计， 2025 ...

Group 1 - The stock price of Pingmei Shenma Coal and Electricity Group Co., Ltd. (平煤股份) showed a fluctuating upward trend from February 4 to February 11, 2026, with a notable increase of 7.32% on February 4, closing at 8.65 yuan, and a year-to-date cumulative increase of 11.31% as of February 11, closing at 8.76 yuan [1][2] - On February 5, there was a net outflow of main funds, while retail and speculative funds experienced a net inflow, indicating a divergence in the funding landscape [2] - The major shareholder, Pingmei Shenma Group, increased its holdings by 10.04 million shares in January, representing 0.41% of the total share capital, which reflects confidence in the company [2] Group 2 - The coal supply side is constrained by policies, while the demand side is experiencing moderate growth, which may provide bottom support for coal prices [2] - The stock price increase on February 10 was accompanied by institutional holdings showing floating profits, highlighting the attractiveness of high dividend strategies [2]

Group 1: Industry Overview - The coal market is experiencing a potential turnaround due to Indonesia's significant reduction in production quotas, which have dropped by 40% to 70% compared to the same period in 2025, tightening global coal supply [1] - The expectation of price recovery is rising, with four distinct companies in the coal sector: China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, Pingmei Shenma, and Huabei Mining, each with unique operational strengths [5][19] Group 2: Company Financial Performance - China Shenhua has a remarkable net profit margin of 22.01%, indicating strong profitability, but its total asset turnover is low at 0.325 times, reflecting a conservative operational style [9][15] - Shaanxi Coal boasts the highest total asset turnover at 0.506 times and a net profit margin of 16.88%, showcasing efficient asset utilization and strong profitability [10][15] - Pingmei Shenma, despite having the highest financial leverage at 2.715 times, struggles with a low net profit margin of 1.99% and the lowest total asset turnover at 0.185 times, indicating operational inefficiencies [6][16] - Huabei Mining has a moderate return on equity (ROE) of approximately 1.76%, with a net profit margin of 2.50% and total asset turnover of 0.361 times, reflecting a balanced but unremarkable performance [12][16] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Implications - The reduction in Indonesian coal production is expected to impact international coal prices, potentially increasing costs for countries reliant on imported coal, including China [19] - China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal, primarily focused on thermal coal, will be more directly affected by fluctuations in the international thermal coal market, while Pingmei Shenma's coking coal prices are closely tied to the steel industry's demand [19] - Internal restructuring efforts, such as Pingmei Shenma's strategic reorganization with Henan Energy Group, may enhance resource allocation and market synergy, presenting long-term growth potential [20]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Pingmei Shenhua Co., Ltd. experienced a stock price increase of 5.11%, reaching 8.85 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 329 million CNY and a turnover rate of 1.55%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 21.854 billion CNY [1] - Pingmei Shenhua Co., Ltd. is located in Pingdingshan, Henan Province, and was established on March 17, 1998, with its listing date on November 23, 2006. The company's main business involves coal mining, coal washing and processing, and coal sales [1] - The revenue composition of the company's main business includes: coal washing segment 66.88%, mixed coal segment 35.49%, other segments 28.19%, and exploration engineering segment 1.18% [1] Group 2 - From the perspective of the top ten circulating shareholders of Pingmei Shenhua, a fund under Southern Fund ranks among them. The Southern CSI 500 ETF (510500) reduced its holdings by 448,000 shares in the third quarter, holding 21.5737 million shares, which accounts for 0.87% of the circulating shares [2] - The Southern CSI 500 ETF (510500) was established on February 6, 2013, with a latest scale of 144.69 billion CNY. Year-to-date return is 11.35%, ranking 556 out of 5569 in its category; the one-year return is 44.93%, ranking 1181 out of 4295; and the return since inception is 180.22% [2] - The fund manager of Southern CSI 500 ETF (510500) is Luo Wenjie, who has a cumulative tenure of 12 years and 298 days, with a total fund asset scale of 171.358 billion CNY. The best fund return during his tenure is 185.79%, while the worst is -47.6% [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal mining sector [4] Core Insights - The coal market is currently influenced by external factors, particularly the proposed significant production cuts by Indonesia, which could lead to a global coal supply shortage and increased prices [2][13] - The report emphasizes the importance of overseas markets over domestic ones, suggesting that any "black swan" events in these markets could significantly impact coal prices [2] - The report highlights the "Overseas 3 Small Coal" concept, focusing on companies with international operations that are likely to benefit from the anticipated price increases [2][13] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The CITIC Coal Index was reported at 3868.96 points, a decrease of 0.61%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.72 percentage points [76] - The report notes that the coal market lacks imagination under current fundamental conditions, but high coal prices could enhance company valuations if unexpected events occur [1][2] Key Areas of Analysis - The report discusses the impact of Indonesia's proposed production cuts, which could reduce output by 40% to 70% compared to 2025 levels, potentially leading to a significant tightening of the global coal market [1][2] - It also mentions that the domestic coal market is expected to experience a dual weakness in supply and demand as the Chinese New Year approaches, with prices likely to stabilize [33][38] Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on companies with international coal sales, specifically highlighting China Qinfa (Indonesia), Power Development (South Africa), and Yancoal Australia (Australia) as key investment opportunities [2][13] - It also suggests that Yancoal Australia's parent company, Yanzhou Coal, should be closely monitored [13] Price Trends - As of February 6, 2026, the spot price for thermal coal at northern ports was reported at 697 RMB/ton, reflecting a slight increase of 2 RMB/ton week-on-week [33] - The report indicates that while the market is currently stable, the sentiment is optimistic due to the supply constraints from Indonesia, which may lead to price increases post-holiday [33][35] Focused Companies - The report recommends several companies for investment, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Zhongmei Energy, based on their performance and market positioning [10][13] - It also highlights the importance of companies like Keda Control and China Qinfa, which are positioned to benefit from market changes [13]