Market Overview - A-shares experienced narrow fluctuations, with the Sci-Tech Innovation Board showing strong performance, particularly in AI applications and computing chips [1] - The Hong Kong stock market saw a significant rebound in the pharmaceutical sector, with the Hong Kong Innovation Drug ETF (520880) reaching a peak increase of 3.86% and closing up 2.9% [3][5] ETF Performance - The Hong Kong Innovation Drug ETF (520880) recorded a trading volume of 5.9 billion, while the Hong Kong Medical ETF (159137) rose by 2.1%, marking its sixth consecutive day of gains [2][3] - The Sci-Tech Artificial Intelligence ETF (589520) increased by 1.81%, with a peak rise of over 2.4% during the trading session [8] Industry Insights - The Chinese innovative drug sector is experiencing a dual breakthrough in internationalization and commercialization, with over 70% of innovative drug companies reporting positive revenue growth [6][7] - Significant collaborations in the innovative drug space include a strategic partnership between Innovent Biologics and Eli Lilly, valued at up to $8.85 billion, and a $18.5 billion collaboration between CSPC Pharmaceutical and AstraZeneca [6] AI and Technology Developments - ByteDance's recent launches, including the Seedance 2.0 video generation model and Seedream 5.0 image generation model, have generated significant interest in the AI sector [11] - The Sci-Tech Artificial Intelligence ETF (589520) has a substantial exposure to ByteDance, with a weight of 29.42% in its index [11][13] Semiconductor and Chip Industry - The semiconductor equipment industry is experiencing an upward trend, with projected sales growth of 26% in 2026, reaching $791.7 billion [17] - The Sci-Tech Chip ETF (589190) is positioned to benefit from the ongoing "super cycle" in the semiconductor industry, with a focus on domestic production and expansion [15][17] Investment Strategy - Analysts suggest that the current market conditions present a favorable opportunity for investment in innovative drugs and AI sectors, with a recommendation to focus on ETFs that track these industries [7][19] - The Sci-Tech Chip ETF has shown a strong annualized return of 17.93%, outperforming other semiconductor indices [19][20]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a strong upward trend, particularly in the innovative drug sector, with significant gains in the ChiNext Innovative Drug ETF [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of 11:08 on February 10, the ChiNext Innovative Drug ETF (589120) surged by 2%, marking a potential two-day consecutive rise [1]. - Major component stocks of the ETF, such as Rongchang Biopharma and Baili Tianheng, saw increases exceeding 5%, while others like Baijie Shenzhou rose over 4% [3]. Group 2: Key Component Stocks - The top ten component stocks of the ChiNext Innovative Drug ETF include: - J-Z**KD with a 4.04% increase and an estimated weight of 10.43% - Baili Tianheng with a 5.10% increase and an estimated weight of 7.89% - Rongchang Biopharma with a 5.51% increase and an estimated weight of 6.35% [4]. Group 3: Industry Developments - Innovent Biologics announced the approval of its ICP-538, a VAV1 molecular glue degrader, for clinical research, marking it as the first of its kind in China and the second globally [4]. - Baili Tianheng's recent shareholder meeting approved significant resolutions, including the issuance of debt financing tools and extending the validity of H-share issuance [5]. Group 4: Strategic Collaborations - Innovent Biologics entered a strategic partnership with Eli Lilly to advance the global development of innovative drugs in oncology and immunology, receiving an upfront payment of $350 million and potential milestone payments totaling up to $8.5 billion [5]. Group 5: Industry Growth and Trends - The Chinese innovative drug sector is transitioning from "pipeline expectations" to "performance realization," with over 70% of companies projected to achieve revenue growth by 2025 [8]. - The total value of License-out transactions for Chinese innovative drugs skyrocketed from $2.562 billion in 2017 to an estimated $140.274 billion by 2025, indicating a significant increase in global recognition [6]. Group 6: Investment Opportunities - Three key investment themes for 2026 in the innovative drug sector include: 1. Accelerated BD (Business Development) overseas, focusing on ADC, dual antibodies, and GLP-1RA [9]. 2. Policy support for innovative drug development, enhancing commercialization opportunities [9]. 3. Monitoring critical clinical data and commercialization milestones for new drugs [10].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of the A-share market, highlighting the fluctuations in major indices and the notable movements in specific sectors such as media and pharmaceuticals. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.02% to 4122.34, while the Shenzhen Component Index also fell by 0.02% to 14206.26. The ChiNext Index dropped by 0.14% to 3328.02, and the Sci-Tech Innovation Board Index rose by 0.19% to 1800.35 [4][12]. - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.4 trillion yuan, with over 2800 stocks declining [6]. Sector Highlights - The media sector experienced significant gains, with multiple stocks such as Light Media and China Film hitting the daily limit, and Huace Film and Happiness Blue Sea rising over 15% [5][6]. - The innovative drug concept saw a surge, with stocks like Guangsheng Tang increasing by over 13% [6]. - The semiconductor sector also performed well, with stocks like Chipone Technology rising over 8% [10]. New Listings - Three new stocks were listed, with N Electric Technology opening at a remarkable increase of 750.05% on its first day [11]. Other Market Movements - The precious metals, shipping, and liquor sectors showed weakness, contrasting with the strong performance of the media and innovative drug sectors [5][6].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The proportion of driver gene-negative non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients is approximately 31% in both China and the United States, indicating a significant market opportunity for treatments targeting this demographic [2][15] - The estimated market size for immune drugs used in first-line treatment of driver gene-negative NSCLC is projected to be around 7.5 billion CNY (approximately 1.1 billion USD) in China and 18 billion CNY (approximately 2.7 billion USD) in the United States by 2030 [2] - The current first-line treatment for advanced driver gene-negative NSCLC primarily relies on PD(L)-1 inhibitors combined with chemotherapy, but there are limitations in long-term efficacy and options for patients intolerant to chemotherapy [3] Summary by Sections Section 1: NSCLC Global Overview - Lung cancer is the leading cancer type globally, with new cases accounting for approximately 12% of all cancer cases in 2022, translating to about 2.5 million new lung cancer cases [10] - In China, lung cancer represents about 22% of new cancer cases, with approximately 1.06 million new cases in 2022 [10] Section 2: Market Potential for Driver Gene-Negative NSCLC - The report highlights the significant market potential for immune therapies in treating driver gene-negative NSCLC, with a focus on the limitations of current treatment options [2][3] Section 3: Next-Generation Immunotherapy Approaches - The report discusses the advancements in dual (multi) antibody therapies and immune-oncology (IO) combined with antibody-drug conjugates (ADC), emphasizing their potential to improve treatment outcomes for patients with driver gene-negative NSCLC [5][8] - The clinical data supporting these new therapies is expected to catalyze further investment and development in this area [5] Section 4: Treatment Guidelines Comparison - The report compares treatment guidelines for driver gene-negative NSCLC between the United States and China, noting differences in treatment stratification and recommended therapies [32][34] - The U.S. guidelines emphasize PD-L1 expression levels, while Chinese guidelines focus more on performance status (PS) [32][34] Section 5: Future Catalysts - Key upcoming clinical data releases and studies are highlighted as potential catalysts for investment opportunities in the sector, particularly regarding dual antibodies and ADC therapies [5][8]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market showed a strong opening on February 9, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 1.59%, the State-owned Enterprises Index increasing by 1.54%, and the Technology Index up by 1.9% [1] - The Hang Seng Biotechnology Index, focusing on innovative drugs, performed robustly, with the largest ETF tracking this index (159892) rising nearly 2% [1] - The innovative drug sector is expected to enter a profit realization acceleration phase by 2025, with companies like Innovent Biologics and Rongchang Biopharmaceuticals turning losses into profits, while companies like 3SBio are significantly increasing their performance [1] Group 2 - The strong performance of the innovative drug sector validates the effectiveness of the domestic innovative drug business model, with core product volume growth supported by medical insurance becoming the foundation for performance growth [1] - External collaborations, such as business development (BD) partnerships, are becoming important drivers for enhancing performance in the innovative drug sector [1] - The Hang Seng Medical ETF (159892) focuses on innovative drugs, CXO, and related industries, benefiting from the advantages of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange's 18A system, covering numerous innovative targets like BeiGene and Innovent Biologics, and is expected to continue its valuation recovery trend under catalysts like overseas expansion of innovative drugs and commercial insurance directories [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The Chinese innovative pharmaceutical industry is entering a new phase of development characterized by dual breakthroughs in commercialization and internationalization, with significant growth in License-out transactions from $2.562 billion in 2017 to $140.274 billion in 2025 [5][15] - The industry is transitioning from a phase of pipeline expectations to one of performance realization, with over 70% of companies achieving positive revenue growth in 2025 [6][23] - The innovative drug sector has seen a strong performance in early 2026, with the pharmaceutical and biological sector rising by 0.14%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.47 percentage points [7][29] Summary by Sections Section 1: Breakthroughs in Commercialization and Internationalization - The period from 2017 to 2026 is crucial for the recognition of Chinese pharmaceutical companies in the global market, with a notable increase in License-out transactions [5][15] - In early 2026, significant deals were made, including a $12 billion upfront payment from CSPC to AstraZeneca, indicating the growing international competitiveness of Chinese innovative drugs [16][17] Section 2: Performance of the Pharmaceutical Sector - The pharmaceutical sector has shown robust growth, with companies like BeiGene reporting revenues exceeding 36 billion yuan, reflecting strong commercialization capabilities [6][23] - The overall industry is moving towards profitability, with companies like Innovent Biologics and Rongchang Biopharma achieving breakeven for the first time [6][23] Section 3: Market Trends and Subsector Performance - In the first week of February 2026, the Chinese pharmaceutical sector saw a 0.14% increase, with traditional Chinese medicine leading the gains at 2.56% [7][31] - The medical research outsourcing sector also performed well, increasing by 1.99%, while other subsectors like biological products and vaccines experienced declines [7][31][35]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The Chinese innovative pharmaceutical industry is entering a new phase of development characterized by dual breakthroughs in commercialization and internationalization, with significant increases in License-out transaction values from $2.562 billion in 2017 to $140.274 billion in 2025 [5][15] - The industry is transitioning from a phase of pipeline expectations to one of performance realization, with over 70% of companies achieving positive revenue growth in 2025 [6][23] - The innovative drug sector has seen a strong performance in the first week of February 2026, with a 0.14% increase, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.47 percentage points [7][29] Summary by Sections Section 1: Breakthroughs in Commercialization and Internationalization - The period from 2017 to 2026 is crucial for the recognition of Chinese pharmaceutical companies in the global market, with a notable increase in License-out transactions [5][15] - In 2026, the upfront payment for License-out transactions has already exceeded 39% of the total for 2025, indicating improved quality and competitiveness of Chinese innovative drug pipelines [5][15][16] Section 2: Performance of the Pharmaceutical Sector - The innovative drug sector is experiencing rapid revenue growth, with companies like BeiGene achieving over 36 billion yuan in revenue, showcasing strong commercialization capabilities [6][23] - Major companies such as Innovent Biologics and Rongchang Biopharma have maintained robust growth due to their core products, with some companies achieving profitability for the first time [6][23][24] Section 3: Market Trends and Subsector Performance - In the first week of February 2026, the traditional Chinese medicine sector saw the highest increase at 2.56%, while other biopharmaceutical sectors experienced declines [7][31] - The medical research outsourcing sector also performed well, with a 1.99% increase, indicating a positive trend in the pharmaceutical industry overall [7][31][35]

Investment Rating - The report provides an "Outperform" rating for multiple companies in the healthcare sector, including BeiGene, JD Health, WuXi Biologics, and others, indicating a positive outlook for these stocks [1]. Core Insights - The macro and industry environment is improving due to the resolution of policy uncertainties, the release of significant clinical data, and a resurgence in global M&A activity, leading to a notable increase in investor sentiment towards innovative drugs for 2026 [4][11]. - In oncology, the PD-1/VEGF dual antibody approach is transitioning from "mechanism validation" to "clinical and industrial resonance," with multiple global Phase III trials underway, expected to catalyze approvals and data releases within the year [5][17]. - The metabolic sector is seeing growth in the cash-pay market for GLP-1 drugs, driven by limited insurance coverage and high out-of-pocket costs, prompting companies to enhance accessibility through direct sales and pricing adjustments [6][25]. - In the autoimmune space, there is a growing concentration risk among major products from multinational corporations (MNCs), with new antibody platforms expected to yield significant data in 2026, potentially leading to new business development opportunities [7]. - The central nervous system (CNS) investment focus remains on advancing Aβ monoclonal antibody treatments, with key data expected to open up early intervention market opportunities [9]. Summary by Sections Oncology - The PD-1/VEGF dual antibody's clinical and industrial certainty is strengthening, with major companies conducting multiple global Phase III trials across high-value indications [17]. - The Pan-RAS precision therapy is entering a realization phase, with key Phase III data expected in 2026 for pancreatic cancer and NSCLC [22]. Metabolic - The cash-pay market for GLP-1 drugs is expanding due to limited insurance coverage, with companies like Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk adopting different direct-to-consumer strategies to enhance accessibility [25][26]. - Small nucleic acid therapies are expected to upgrade treatment paradigms, showing competitive data in weight loss and safety profiles when combined with GLP-1 [30]. Autoimmune - MNCs are increasingly reliant on a few blockbuster products, with structural opportunities arising from new antibody platforms expected to report data in 2026 [7]. - The trend towards oral formulations in autoimmune diseases is gaining traction, offering advantages in adherence and competitive differentiation [7]. CNS - The focus in CNS remains on Aβ monoclonal antibody treatments, with advancements expected to shift treatment towards earlier intervention populations [9]. - New delivery methods, such as systemic administration of small nucleic acids, are being explored as complementary approaches [9].

创新药专题 中国声音响彻2026年JPM大会 西南证券研究院 2026年2月 分析师：杜向阳 执业证号：S1250520030002 电话：021-68416017 邮箱：duxy@swsc.com.cn 分析师：汤泰萌 执业证号：S1250522120001 邮箱：ttm@swsc.com.cn 核心观点 何为JPM大会？ • 摩根大通医疗健康大会（J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference）始于1982年，是全球医疗健康领域最具影响力、规 模最大的医疗投资产业交流合作大会之一，涵盖制药、生物技术、医疗器械、诊断、数字健康、医疗服务等整个医疗 保健领域，是一场 "资本+战略"的顶级商业盛宴。 JPM投资逻辑？ • JPM大会是医疗健康领域规模最大、信息量最丰富的投资与合作盛会，汇聚了全球极具影响力的跨国药企（MNC）、 创新药企（Biotech）及投资机构，不仅为MNC、投资机构与Biotech提供了对接平台，更释放了未来一年行业发展 的清晰信号，对全球生物医药产业的走向提供重要指引。通过梳理JPM大会，不难发现，创新药企业，尤其是有BD交 易预期的企业往往会迎来股价的重要催化，因此 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Rongchang Biologics (09995) with a target price of HKD 136 [1] Core Insights - The report is optimistic about the company's upcoming milestones, including the enrollment of MGIII for Taitasip and the initiation of SSIII, as well as the first overseas BLA submission for Vedisit and the data readout for 1LUCIII [1] - The inclusion of Taitasip's indications in the mainland's medical insurance is expected to drive significant sales growth, alongside the anticipated approvals for major indications like SS and IgAN [1] - Early-stage products (RC148, RC118, new ADCRC278) are progressing towards more indications, with data readouts likely to continue catalyzing the stock price [1] Financial Performance - Rongchang Biologics has issued a positive earnings forecast, expecting approximately RMB 3.25 billion in revenue for the previous year, representing a year-on-year growth of about 89% [1] - The net profit is projected to be around RMB 716 million, with a non-deductible net profit of approximately RMB 78.5 million, both showing a turnaround from losses year-on-year [1] - The performance significantly exceeded previous expectations from both the report and the market, with the timing of the profitability inflection point occurring earlier than previously anticipated [1] - Excluding contributions from external licensing and fair value gains, the report estimates that the company's core business achieved or approached breakeven in the fourth quarter, ahead of prior expectations [1] - With Taitasip and RC148 expanding internationally and more R&D costs being borne by overseas partners, there is optimism for further improvement in the company's profit margins this year [1]