下一个资源品——农产品？怎么选？（肉蛋专 场）20260204 摘要 1 月初肉牛市场价格稳中偏强，预计上涨幅度在 0.03~0.05 元/公斤， 养殖端成交加快，市场心态好转，但淘汰母牛均价为 19.98 元/公斤，同 比上涨 23.57%，下游补栏情绪积极。 12 月定点样本企业肉牛出栏量环比增加 3.47%至 0.88 万头，受春节前 季节性需求和屠宰场备货影响，但养殖户因价格不满意选择压栏，预计 1 月出栏量将继续增加。 12 月全国定点样本企业肉牛存栏量同比下降 0.97%至 10.87 万头，自 2024 年以来逐步下行，养殖户补栏积极性一般，受市场预期不明朗和 育肥公牛价格偏低影响。 1 月底自繁自养利润为 2,568 元/头，专业育肥利润为 3,060 元/头，均 维持高位水平，预计饲料成本变动不大，玉米价格走弱、豆粕价格可能 下调，育肥利润将保持较高水平。 2025 年 12 月 CME 活牛期货价格下跌，受圣诞节前需求不旺盛和美国 边境发现新的螺旋重启病例影响，但存栏数据恢复不及预期，价格从 12 月底开始逐步反弹。 Q&A 2026 年国内肉牛市场的行情如何？ 2026 年国内肉牛市场在 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 蛋白粕： （侯雪玲，从业资格号：F3048706；交易咨询资格号：Z0013637） 周三，CBOT大豆触及两个月新高，因中美领导人会谈，提振市场情绪。豆油延续前一日上涨走势。市 场等待周四出口销售报告，市场预期美豆出口净销售40-165万吨。美元上涨限制涨幅。国内方面，蛋白 粕震荡为主。美豆上涨，但巴西升贴水回落，国内表现弱于外盘。中美领导人通电话，远期进口或将增 加。豆粕震荡思路。策略上，短线参与，59反套。 油脂： （侯雪玲，从业资格号：F3048706；交易咨询资格号：Z0013637） 周三，BMD棕榈油小幅收涨，跟随周边市场走高。同时，市场预期马棕油1月库存将下降。调查预计， 马棕油1月库存将下降至291万吨，环比减少4.64%。马棕油产量环比减少12%至161万吨。高频数据显 示，马棕油出口环比增加14.9%至17.9%。据五家交易商透露，印度1月棕榈油进口大幅攀升51%，创四 个月新高，也利好市场。国内方面，油脂震荡偏弱走势，市场继续关注生柴政策。商品市场降温，多头 获利平仓，引发了市场下跌空间。基本方面变化不大，豆类市场继续等 ...

每经AI快讯，当地时间2月4日，洲际交易所（ICE）农产品期货主力合约收盘全线下跌，原糖期货跌 1.50%报14.41美分/磅，棉花期货跌0.14%报62.22美分/磅，可可期货跌6.02%报4041.00美元/吨，咖啡期 货跌2.29%报309.85美分/磅。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

Group 1 - The Bloomberg Grain Index increased by 0.79%, reaching 29.3490 points [1] - CBOT corn futures rose by 0.12%, priced at $4.29 per bushel [1] - CBOT wheat futures fell by 0.43%, priced at $5.2675 per bushel [1] - CBOT soybean futures increased by 2.46%, priced at $10.92 per bushel [1]

Core Viewpoint - The agricultural futures market serves as a "safe haven" for enterprises and farmers to manage price risks, a "signal light" for guiding agricultural production and promoting industrial upgrades, and an important tool for enhancing China's international discourse power in agriculture [1] Group 1: Market Development and Achievements - China's agricultural futures market has seen significant reforms and expansions, with the number of agricultural futures products increasing from 27 to 44, contributing to a comprehensive derivatives tool system that covers major agricultural product supply chains [2] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) has successfully launched 10 new agricultural futures and options products during the 14th Five-Year Plan, enhancing the structure of the agricultural futures market and improving the resilience of supply chains [3] Group 2: Future Directions and Innovations - The DCE aims to expand its product offerings and enhance risk management tools for enterprises, with new options contracts for soybean meal and corn launched to better meet continuous risk management needs [4] - Future developments will focus on improving the variety and institutional framework of agricultural futures, innovating financial support models, and enhancing international pricing capabilities to reflect both domestic supply and demand and global factors [5]

Group 1 - The agricultural processing sector increased by 0.19% on February 4, with Baolingbao leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4102.2, up 0.85%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14156.27, up 0.21% [1] - Baolingbao's stock price rose by 10.03% to 10.53, with a trading volume of 286,400 shares and a transaction value of 292 million yuan [1] Group 2 - The agricultural processing sector experienced a net outflow of 41.17 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 58.53 million yuan [2] - The top stocks by net inflow included Baolingbao with 56.68 million yuan from institutional investors, while it faced a net outflow of 41.12 million yuan from retail investors [3] - Other notable stocks included Guangnong Sugar Industry with a net inflow of 9.79 million yuan from institutional investors and a net outflow of 934,190 yuan from retail investors [3]

据农业农村部监测，截至2月4日14:00时，全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为18.38元/公斤，较前一日 下降1.0%；鸡蛋平均价格为8.65元/公斤，较前一日上升0.8%。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

Core Viewpoint - China, with a population of over 1.4 billion, has a significant demand for agricultural products, and the government aims to promote a healthy and sustainable development of agricultural trade and production through coordinated efforts in domestic and international markets [1][2]. Group 1: Agricultural Trade and Production Coordination - The government emphasizes the importance of stabilizing domestic agricultural production while enhancing the quality and competitiveness of agriculture to meet both domestic supply and international market demands [2]. - China is the world's second-largest agricultural product importer, with imports expected to reach $207.4 billion by 2025, which includes soybeans, meat, dairy products, dried and fresh fruits, and wine [1]. - The agricultural trade policy of China is consistent and proactive, focusing on open cooperation and mutual benefits, while promoting the diversification of agricultural imports [2]. Group 2: Market Potential and International Engagement - The potential for agricultural markets in China is vast, as the country seeks to utilize both domestic and international resources effectively [1]. - The government plans to deepen participation in international agricultural trade and expand imports of domestically scarce agricultural products while ensuring national food security [2]. - The strategy includes balancing the pace and intensity of agricultural imports to maintain a stable and healthy domestic market [2].

今天（2月4日）上午10时，国务院新闻办公室举行新闻发布会，介绍锚定农业农村现代化、扎实推进乡 村全面振兴有关情况。中央财办、中央农办有关负责人韩文秀表示，中央一号文件提出，促进农产品贸 易和生产相协调，目的是要统筹用好国内国际两个市场、两种资源，促进农产品贸易健康可持续发展， 实现贸易和生产之间的良性循环。（央视新闻） ...

Core Viewpoint - The government aims to stabilize farmers' income from agricultural production by effectively utilizing policies related to pricing, subsidies, and insurance to prevent losses in grain production [1] Pricing Policies - The government will utilize minimum purchase prices and target prices as policy tools to ensure that the prices of important agricultural products, such as grain, remain at reasonable levels [1] - There will be a coordinated approach to market-based purchases and policy-based reserves to support price stability [1] Subsidy Policies - The implementation of subsidies for farmland fertility protection, corn and soybean producers, and rice will be maintained [1] - The government encourages local initiatives for special loans with interest subsidies for grain and oil planting, providing direct financial support to farmers [1] Insurance Policies - The government will strengthen insurance coverage for rice, wheat, corn, and soybeans, and support the development of insurance for local specialty agricultural products [1] - Efforts will be made to improve the efficiency of insurance claims to effectively mitigate natural and market risks, thereby providing a "safety belt" for farmers engaged in grain production [1]