Core Insights - The chemical industry is entering a favorable phase driven by demand, value, and supply dynamics [5][6][7] - Global supply constraints and the exit of European capacities are expected to enhance the market environment for the chemical sector [7] Demand Drivers - Key opportunities identified in various sectors include: - Gas turbine upstream: companies like Zhenhua Co., Yingliu Co., Longda Co., and Wanze Co. [5] - Refrigerants and fluorinated liquids: companies such as Juhua Co., New Zhoubang, and Runhe Materials [5] - Energy storage supply chain: including Chuanheng Co., Xingfa Group, Yuntianhua, Batian Co., and others [5] - Semiconductor materials: companies like Yanggu Huatai, Wanrun Co., Dinglong Co., and others [5] Value Drivers - Potential for increased dividend yields in sectors such as: - Coal chemical: Hualu Hengsheng, Luxi Chemical, and Baofeng Energy [6] - Oil refining: Hengli Petrochemical, Satellite Chemical, and Sinopec [6] - Phosphate fertilizers: Yuntianhua, Yuntu Holdings, and others [6] Supply Drivers - Domestic anti-involution policies and the exit of European production capacities are expected to support the chemical industry: - PTA and polyester filament: companies like Xin Fengming and Tongkun Co. [7] - Tire manufacturing: including Sailun Tire, Zhongce Rubber, and others [7] Key Companies and Profit Forecasts - Selected companies with profit forecasts include: - Zhenhua Co. (Net profit forecast for 2025: 6.04 billion, PE: 21.8) [8] - Yingliu Co. (Net profit forecast for 2025: 4.08 billion, PE: 42.7) [8] - Longda Co. (Net profit forecast for 2025: 1.06 billion, PE: 34.9) [8] - Wanze Co. (Net profit forecast for 2025: 2.37 billion, PE: 32.9) [8] - Juhua Co. (Net profit forecast for 2025: 48.14 billion, PE: 24.4) [8] Industry Cycle Insights - The chemical industry is expected to enter a new cycle, with demand recovery and supply-side reforms driving growth [14][21] - The chemical price index has shown signs of recovery, indicating a potential upturn in the market [20][21]

Investment Direction 1: Dividend Strategy - Recommended companies include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (PetroChina) with an expected Brent oil price range of $60-70 per barrel in 2026 [2][3] - CNOOC is committed to maintaining a dividend payout ratio of no less than 45% from 2025 to 2027, while PetroChina benefits from domestic natural gas market reforms [2][3] Investment Direction 2: Capital Allocation to Undervalued Chemical Leaders - Recommended companies include Wanhua Chemical, Baofeng Energy, Satellite Chemical, and Hualu Hengsheng, which are expected to benefit from industry barriers related to cost, technology, and market [2][3] - The report suggests prioritizing capital allocation to chemical ETFs and leading companies as their performance is expected to stabilize [2][3] Investment Direction 3: Price Increases Driven by Downstream Demand - Traditional demand sectors such as food additives, pesticides, and fertilizers are highlighted, with companies like New Hope Liuhe and Jiangshan Chemical expected to benefit from stable growth in demand [2][3] - Emerging demand in phosphorous and fluorine chemicals is driven by the needs of new energy battery and AI cooling applications, with companies like Chuanheng Chemical and Juhua Co. being key players [2][3] Investment Direction 4: Domestic Anti-Competition Driving Price Increases - The report emphasizes the focus on large refining and chemical companies such as Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical, which are expected to benefit from anti-competitive measures in the domestic market [2][3] - The organic silicon sector is entering the end of its expansion cycle, with major companies like Sinan Silicon Material adjusting industry operating rates [2][3] - The soda ash industry is facing capacity controls and the need to phase out outdated production, with companies like Boyuan Chemical under observation [2][3] Oil Price Analysis - The report anticipates a Brent oil price range of $60-70 per barrel in 2026, with a slight oversupply expected [11][12] - OPEC+ has postponed production increases for Q1 2026, indicating a cautious approach to market conditions [11][12] - The report highlights geopolitical factors, including the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and U.S.-Venezuela relations, which may impact oil supply dynamics [12][13] Three Major Oil Companies Insights - CNOOC is focused on increasing reserves and production while reducing costs, while PetroChina is benefiting from natural gas market reforms [34][36] - Sinopec is concentrating on domestic refining and chemical anti-competition developments [34][36] - The overall profitability of the three major oil companies is expected to be supported by the anticipated oil price stabilization [34][36]

（编辑 任世碧） 证券日报网12月11日讯 云图控股在12月9日至10日回答调研者提问时表示，公司磷复肥年产能近800万 吨，在建复合肥产能190万吨。遵循"靠近资源，靠近市场"原则，公司已在湖北应城、荆州、宜城，四 川眉山，河南宁陵，山东平原，辽宁铁岭，黑龙江肇东、佳木斯，新疆昌吉等地布局复合肥生产基地， 并推进广西贵港和新疆阿克苏基地的建设，形成了覆盖粮食主产区与核心市场的生产网络。此外，公司 还在马来西亚建有年产15万吨复合肥的生产基地，保障东南亚市场的供应。随着在建产能逐步投产释 放，公司依托完整的氮磷产业链及辐射国内外的生产网络，有效保障主要原料稳定供应，持续提升成本 竞争力，并快速响应不同区域的市场需求，为磷复肥主业发展提供稳固支撑。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company has established a complete industrial chain layout for iron phosphate, with a current annual production capacity of 50,000 tons [2] Group 1: Production Capacity and Supply Chain - The company possesses upstream production capacities of 150,000 tons of refined phosphoric acid and 300,000 tons of pure wet phosphoric acid, ensuring a stable supply of precursors needed for lithium battery cathode materials [2] - The company utilizes an iron-based method for producing iron phosphate, which provides a cost advantage and ensures product stability and high quality [2] Group 2: Strategic Partnerships and Future Plans - The company has formed partnerships with key players such as Honeycomb Energy, Dingsheng Shudao, and Zhongchuang Xinhang [2] - The company aims to strengthen strategic cooperation with high-quality customers to promote the continuous development of its new energy materials business [2]

证券日报网12月11日讯云图控股在12月9日至10日回答调研者提问时表示，公司将在保障自身产业链需 求的基础上，统筹安排磷矿石的使用。一方面，公司将使用自采的磷矿石生产黄磷、磷复肥、磷系阻燃 剂及磷酸铁等产品，保障生产所需磷矿石的稳定供应，并降低生产成本。另一方面，公司将结合市场情 况和自身需求，动态调整自用和外售的比例，力求效益最大化，增强公司盈利能力。 （文章来源：证券日报） ...

Core Viewpoint - Yuntu Holdings has significant phosphate resources in Leibo County, Sichuan Province, with a total resource volume of approximately 549 million tons, and is progressing steadily with its projects [2] Group 1: Project Updates - The Aju Luo Xia phosphate mine has a production capacity of 2.9 million tons per year, with underground engineering, surface facilities construction, and slope management progressing smoothly [2] - The Niu Niu Zhai East section phosphate mine, with a capacity of 4 million tons per year, is currently advancing with tunnel construction [2] - The Niu Niu Zhai West section phosphate mine is in the "exploration to production" phase, with plans to steadily advance all phosphate projects [2] Group 2: Strategic Goals - The company aims to provide raw material support for phosphate fertilizer and phosphate chemical businesses, enhancing industry chain synergy and improving market competitiveness [2]

Core Viewpoint - Yuntu Holdings (002539) is accelerating the development of its green circular phosphate chemical industry project in Hubei Yicheng, which includes significant investments in various phosphate-related products and facilities [1] Group 1: Project Details - The project involves the construction of 150,000 tons of pure iron phosphate, 200,000 tons of phosphate flame retardants, and supporting facilities including 1.5 million tons of upstream reverse flotation ore dressing, 600,000 tons of sulfuric acid production, and 150,000 tons of food-grade refined phosphoric acid [1] - A 15 MW photovoltaic power generation facility and a dedicated railway station are also part of the project [1] Group 2: Current Status and Future Plans - Currently, the 600,000 tons of sulfuric acid production has been completed and is in operation, while the approval process for other projects is ongoing [1] - This project is a key part of the company's strategy to deepen its phosphate industry chain from "phosphate rock - phosphoric acid - iron phosphate/phosphate fertilizer," which will enhance the scale of refined phosphoric acid, iron phosphate, and phosphate flame retardants [1] Group 3: Strategic Implications - The initiative aims to transition the company from traditional phosphate fertilizers to high-value-added sectors, thereby expanding its influence in the phosphate chemical and new energy materials markets and enhancing its profitability resilience [1]

Group 1: Production Capacity and Infrastructure - The company has an annual production capacity of nearly 8 million tons for phosphate compound fertilizers, with an additional 1.9 million tons under construction [2][3] - The company is establishing production bases in various regions, including Hubei, Sichuan, Henan, Shandong, Liaoning, Heilongjiang, and Xinjiang, to cover major grain production areas and core markets [2][3] - The company is also constructing a 700,000-ton ammonia synthesis project at the Chengdu base, which includes supporting production lines for water-soluble compound fertilizers and controlled-release fertilizers [4] Group 2: Mining Projects and Resource Management - The company owns three phosphate mine resources in Leibo County, Sichuan, with a total resource volume of approximately 549 million tons [5] - The mining projects are progressing, with specific projects like the Aju Luogua mine and Niuniuzhai East section advancing in construction [5] - The company plans to use its self-mined phosphate rock for producing various products, ensuring stable supply and reducing production costs [6] Group 3: Phosphate Chemical Projects - The company is accelerating the development of a green circular industry project at the Yicheng base, which includes the construction of 150,000 tons of iron phosphate and 200,000 tons of phosphorus-based flame retardants [7][8] - The project aims to enhance the company's capabilities in fine phosphorus chemical products and extend its influence in the phosphorus chemical and new energy materials markets [8] Group 4: Iron Phosphate Business - The company has established a complete iron phosphate industrial chain with an annual capacity of 30,000 tons [8] - It has formed strategic partnerships with key clients in the lithium battery sector, ensuring stable supply of precursor materials [8] - The company aims to strengthen collaborations with quality customers to promote the continuous development of its new energy materials business [8]

Core Insights - The agricultural chemical sector experienced a slight increase of 0.38% on December 10, with Yara International leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3900.5, down 0.23%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13316.42, up 0.29% [1] Agricultural Chemical Sector Performance - Yara International (000893) closed at 46.94, up 2.78% with a trading volume of 90,100 shares [1] - YunTu Holdings (002539) closed at 10.86, up 2.26% with a trading volume of 136,400 shares [1] - Salt Lake Industry (000792) closed at 25.63, up 1.99% with a trading volume of 543,000 shares [1] - Other notable performers include BaTian Co. (002170) up 1.44%, Jiangshan Co. (600389) up 1.43%, and HongTaiYang (000525) up 1.39% [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The agricultural chemical sector saw a net outflow of 410 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 410 million yuan [2] - Notable net inflows from retail investors were observed in Yara International (000893) with 18.52 million yuan and New Yangfeng (000902) with 8.72 million yuan [2] - Conversely, significant net outflows from institutional investors were noted in Sichuan Meifeng (000731) and Hualu Hensheng (600426) [2]

Demand Side - The demand for phosphate rock in China is projected to be 11,320 million tons in 2024, with expectations of 11,802 million tons and 12,414 million tons in 2025 and 2026 respectively, resulting in an actual incremental demand of 482 million tons and 612 million tons [2] - Emerging demand from the energy storage sector is expected to drive the phosphate chemical industry, with the incremental demand for phosphate rock from energy storage batteries estimated at 393 million tons and 431 million tons for 2025 and 2026 respectively [2] - Traditional demand for phosphate fertilizers is expected to remain weak due to rising raw material prices, with a low likelihood of recovery in phosphate fertilizer demand in 2025 and 2026 [2] Supply Side - In 2024, China's phosphate rock capacity, effective capacity, and output are projected to be 19,447 million tons, 11,916 million tons, and 11,353 million tons respectively, with expected capacities of 21,732 million tons and 24,762 million tons in 2025 and 2026 [3] - The supply of phosphate rock is significantly affected by environmental safety incidents, leading to a large gap between planned and actual production capacities [3] - The phosphate iron industry is experiencing long-term overcapacity, with effective capacity and output for phosphate iron in 2024 estimated at 426 million tons and 205 million tons respectively, and expected to increase to 499 million tons and 540 million tons in 2025 and 2026 [3] Price Outlook - The operating rate for phosphate rock capacity in 2024 is expected to be 58%, with effective capacity operating at 95%, and projected to balance supply and demand in 2025 and 2026 [4] - Low-grade phosphate rock prices may face slight pressure, while high-grade phosphate rock prices are expected to remain elevated [4] - The phosphate iron market is anticipated to experience tight supply, with effective capacity operating rates expected to improve from 48% in 2024 to 60% and 80% in 2025 and 2026 respectively [4] Investment Recommendations - Companies with integrated phosphate rock and phosphate iron production capabilities are recommended, including Tianqi Materials, Hunan YN, and Zhongwei Co [5] - Companies with phosphate iron production and rich phosphate rock resources are expected to benefit significantly from rising phosphate iron prices, including Chuanheng Co, Xingfa Group, and Batian Co [5]