化工行业2026年投资策略 周期破晓，材料乘风 西南证券研究院 化工研究团队 2026年2月 核心观点 顺周期化工品中，重点关注资源属性的化工品以及具有黑马属性的地产链化工品。 1 全球视角来看，化工行业已经处于新一轮景气周期的起点。我国化工企业在过去几年从做大到做强，具备 了更为坚实的利润基础和更为可观的利润弹性。产能端，2022-2025年为我国化工产能的资本开支扩张周 期，进入2026年，海外化工产能加速退出，我国化工产能投放明显放缓，低效产能持续退出，供给端进入 收缩阶段。需求端，我们重点关注中美两大经济体，2025年美国经济展现出超预期韧性，我国经济同样交 出亮丽答卷，国内生产总值超过140万亿元新台阶，按不变价格计算，同比增长5.0％。展望2026年，美国 进入降息通道，经济出现衰退的风险较小，而我国2026年重点经济工作中将提振内需放在任务首位，政策 工具充足，所以我们认为2026年化工行业的供需改善有望超预期。 原材料角度，化工上游原油、天然气、煤炭等能源品种的下行空间已经有限。目前原油供需宽松的基本面 和地缘冲突带来的短期供应波动在交织影响原油价格，根据美国能源信息署预测，2026和2027 ...

基础化工行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 草酸需求预期再次提升 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 ⚫ 我们持续看好化工各子行业景气复苏机遇，如 MDI 龙头：万华化学(600309，买 入) ；PVC 行业，相关企业包括：中泰化学(002092，未评级)、新疆天业(600075， 未评级)、氯碱化工(600618，未评级)、天原股份(002386，未评级)。炼化行业我们 推荐相关龙头企业中国石化(600028，买入)、荣盛石化(002493，买入)、恒力石化 (600346，买入)。农化产业链我们看好技术服务为导向的龙头的增长机会，植调剂 龙头国光股份(002749，买入)；复合肥龙头，相关企业新洋丰(000902，买入)、史 丹利(002588，未评级)、云图控股(002539，未评级)；农药制剂出海龙头润丰股份 (301035，买入)。以及景气度持续性受储能高速增长拉动的磷化工中相关标的包 括：川恒股份(002895，未评级)、云天化(600096，未评级)等。草酸行业中，建议 关注：华鲁恒升(600426，买入)、华谊集团(600623，买入)、万凯新材(301216，买 入)。 风险提示 ⚫ 需求不及预期；海 ...

证券日报网讯 2月3日，史丹利在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司作为复合肥料生产企业，核心 原料为氮肥、磷肥、钾肥，金银铜与公司生产经营无直接关联，其价格波动不会对公司产生实质影响； 石油价格波动主要通过联动煤炭、天然气价格，间接传导至氮肥、磷肥环节，进而影响原料成本。多年 来，公司已形成成熟的原料采购模式，通过动态调整采购策略、布局产业链提升原料自供能力等多元举 措，有效应对原料价格波动风险，保障生产经营稳定。 （文章来源：证券日报） ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [5] Core Viewpoints - The agricultural chemical industry is entering a period of layout opportunities, driven by the increasing importance of food security amid geopolitical fluctuations. The focus is on enhancing planting efficiency through technological empowerment [8] - The report emphasizes the growth potential of leading companies in the agricultural chemical sector, particularly those focused on technology services, including plant growth regulators, compound fertilizers, and pesticide formulations [3][8] - The report highlights the recovery opportunities in various sub-sectors of the chemical industry, including MDI, PVC, and refining, with specific companies recommended for investment [3][8] Summary by Relevant Sections Agricultural Chemical Sector - The report identifies growth opportunities in the agricultural chemical sector, particularly for companies that provide technology-driven services. Key areas include: 1. Plant growth regulators, which are characterized by low usage, high effectiveness, and cost efficiency, are seen as essential for modern agriculture [8] 2. Compound fertilizers are crucial for providing precise nutrient ratios to crops, with room for growth in China's compound fertilizer application rates compared to developed countries [8] 3. The potential for Chinese pesticide formulation companies to expand internationally, breaking the monopoly of traditional multinational corporations [8] Chemical Industry Recovery - The report notes a positive outlook for the recovery of various chemical sub-sectors, including: - MDI leader Wanhua Chemical (600309, Buy) [3] - PVC industry players such as Zhongtai Chemical (002092, Not Rated) and Xinjiang Tianye (600075, Not Rated) [3] - Refining sector leaders like Sinopec (600028, Buy) and Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493, Buy) [3] - The report anticipates continued price increases for high-energy products, particularly in the PVC sector, due to supply constraints and structural demand shifts [8]

Core Viewpoint - The development of humic acid water-soluble fertilizers, derived from natural organic materials, is gaining national attention as a key support for the transition to efficient ecological agriculture, with a projected market size of 43 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a 17.3% year-on-year increase [1][7]. Industry Overview - Humic acid water-soluble fertilizers, also known as liquid fertilizers, are designed to improve soil structure, enhance microbial activity, and increase organic matter content, thus protecting the ecological environment [1][7]. - The industry is supported by government policies aimed at promoting green agricultural transformation, with specific mentions in key documents such as the Central No. 1 Document for 2025 [1][3]. Market Size and Growth - The market size for humic acid water-soluble fertilizers is expected to reach 43 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 17.3% [1][8]. - The production of humic acid in China is projected to reach 3.01 million tons in 2024, marking a 4.5% increase from the previous year [5][6]. Competitive Landscape - The industry exhibits a "head concentration, long tail dispersion" competitive structure, with leading companies like Yuntianhua dominating the high-end market due to their resource advantages and technological accumulation [9]. - Key players in the industry include Yuntianhua, Stanley, and Batians, among others, with varying degrees of market share and product offerings [9][10]. Industry Trends - The industry is moving towards standardized and strategic development driven by national policies, which will enhance product quality and environmental standards [11]. - There is a shift towards functional composite and customized products, with companies focusing on developing high-end products that meet specific agricultural needs [11][12]. - The concentration of the industry is expected to increase, with leading firms expanding their market share through mergers and strategic partnerships, while smaller companies face competitive pressures [12].

Core Viewpoint - Stanley's stock price has shown a positive trend with a year-to-date increase of 5.21%, and significant gains over various trading periods, indicating strong market performance and investor interest [2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - On January 20, Stanley's stock rose by 2.04%, reaching a price of 10.50 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 87.47 million yuan and a turnover rate of 0.99%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 12.095 billion yuan [1]. - Year-to-date, Stanley's stock has increased by 5.21%, with an 8.58% rise over the last five trading days, an 8.25% increase over the last 20 days, and a 10.99% increase over the last 60 days [2]. Group 2: Company Overview - Stanley Agricultural Group Co., Ltd. is located in Linyi City, Shandong Province, and was established on July 15, 1998, with its stock listed on June 10, 2011. The company specializes in the research, production, and sales of compound fertilizers and new fertilizers, as well as grain storage, agricultural technology services, agricultural information consulting, and agricultural materials trading [2]. - The main business revenue composition includes: 50.51% from chlorine-based compound fertilizers, 26.01% from new fertilizers and phosphate fertilizers, 20.29% from sulfur-based compound fertilizers, and 3.19% from other sources [2]. Group 3: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Stanley achieved an operating income of 9.29 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 17.91%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 815 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 22.71% [2]. - Since its A-share listing, Stanley has distributed a total of 1.373 billion yuan in dividends, with 559 million yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Group 4: Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, Stanley had 33,100 shareholders, a decrease of 7.15% from the previous period, with an average of 25,937 circulating shares per shareholder, which is an increase of 7.70% [2]. - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, GF Stable Growth Mixed Fund (270002) is the seventh largest, holding 18.9696 million shares, a decrease of 9.038 million shares from the previous period [3].

Group 1 - The company received a notification from its controlling shareholder, Ms. Gao Ying, regarding the extension of share pledges [1] - As of the date of the announcement, the controlling shareholder and its concerted parties have pledged a certain number of shares, with details provided in the announcement [1] - The pledged shares do not involve any performance compensation obligations and will not lead to a change in the actual control of the company [2] Group 2 - The company assures that the share pledge actions will not adversely affect its production, operation, or corporate governance [2] - The company will continue to monitor the pledge situation and related risks, ensuring timely disclosure of relevant information as required [2] - Backup documents include details from the China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation and other documents required by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [2]

证券代码：002588 证券简称：史丹利 公告编号：2026-002 史丹利农业集团股份有限公司 关于控股股东股份质押延期购回的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证公告的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记载、误导性 陈述或重大遗漏。 史丹利农业集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于近日收到公司控股股东 之一高英女士关于股份质押延期购回事宜的告知函，具体如下： 一、股东股份延期质押的基本情况 | 股东 | | 是否为控 股股东或 第一大股 | 本次质押 数量（股） | 占其所 持股份 | 占公 司总 | 是否 为限 | 是否 为补 | 质押起 | 质押到 | 延期后 | 质押到 | 质权人 | 质押 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | | | | | 股本 | | 充质 | 始日 | 期日 | | | | 用途 | | | | 东及其一 | | 比例 | 比例 | 售股 | 押 | | | | 期日 | | | | | | 致行动人 | | | | | | | | ...

Group 1 - The agricultural chemical sector increased by 3.25% on January 19, with Lier Chemical leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4114.0, up 0.29%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14294.05, up 0.09% [1] - Key stocks in the agricultural chemical sector showed significant price increases, with Lier Chemical rising by 10.01% to a closing price of 16.38 [1] Group 2 - The agricultural chemical sector saw a net inflow of 639 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 370 million yuan [2] - Major stocks like Baiao Chemical and Hualu Hengsheng attracted substantial institutional investment, with net inflows of 160 million yuan and 154 million yuan, respectively [3] - Lier Chemical had a notable institutional net inflow of 117 million yuan, despite a significant outflow from retail investors [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company has completed the main construction of its 50,000 tons/year iron phosphate project at the Suizhi base, but has not yet commenced production due to the current market conditions for iron phosphate [1] Group 1 - The main engineering of the 50,000 tons/year iron phosphate project has been completed [1] - The company is monitoring the changes in the iron phosphate market and will advance capacity release at an appropriate time [1]