Core Insights - The global AI infrastructure investment is entering a new super cycle, driven by technology upgrades and supply shortages in key components, with significant growth expected in the AI network market until 2026 or 2027 [1] Group 1: Market Growth and Projections - The shipment of 800G optical modules is projected to increase from 20 million units in 2025 to 43 million units in 2026, while 1.6T optical module shipments are expected to surge from 2.5 million units to 20 million units [1] - The penetration rate of silicon photonics (SiPh) technology in the 800G/1.6T market is anticipated to reach 50-70% [1] - The optical module market is experiencing structural growth opportunities, with Ethernet optical module market revenue expected to surge by 93% in 2024, followed by 48% and 35% growth in 2025 and 2026, respectively [12] Group 2: Supply Chain Dynamics - Supply chain bottlenecks are expected to strengthen the competitive advantage of leading companies, with advanced optical chip production capacity projected to grow over 80% by 2026, yet still lagging behind demand by 5-15% [2] - Major players like Zhongji Xuchuang and Tianfu Communication are positioned to maintain significant market shares in the 800G/1.6T optical module market, with Zhongji Xuchuang expected to hold 25-30% and 35-40% shares, respectively [12] Group 3: Technological Advancements - The evolution of technology is critical, with AI giants like NVIDIA, Google, Meta, and Amazon AWS actively upgrading their network architectures through various technological paths, including SiPh, Co-Packaged Optics (CPO), and Optical Circuit Switching (OCS) [1] - CPO technology is expected to accelerate commercialization starting in 2026, with penetration rates projected to rise from 3% in 2026 to 20% by 2030, and market size expected to grow from $1.6 billion to $13.1 billion during the same period [14] Group 4: Market Segmentation and Trends - The optical fiber and cable market is showing a bifurcated trend, with strong demand from AI data centers, where AI application optical cable demand is expected to grow by 138% in 2024 and 77% in 2025 [13] - The Ethernet switch market is experiencing robust growth, with a 35.2% year-on-year increase in revenue in Q3 2025, and a significant rise in 800G switch revenue by 91.6% [17]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Shenzhen Taicheng Light Communication Co., Ltd. experienced a decline in stock price, dropping by 5.04% to 108.25 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 1.27 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 6.03%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 24.586 billion CNY [1] - The company was established on December 12, 2000, and went public on December 6, 2016, focusing on the research, production, and sales of optical devices, with 98.02% of its revenue coming from optical device products [1] - The company is located in Shenzhen, Guangdong Province, and operates under a multi-address business model [1] Group 2 - According to data from the top ten heavy stocks of funds, Qianhai Kaiyuan Fund has increased its holdings in Taicheng Light by 833,300 shares, bringing the total to 1,024,600 shares, which represents 8.61% of the fund's net value, making it the fourth-largest heavy stock [2] - The Qianhai Kaiyuan Hong Kong-Shenzhen Enjoy Life Fund (004320) was established on May 12, 2017, with a latest scale of 1.374 billion CNY, showing a year-to-date return of 0.66% and a one-year return of 112.77% [2] - The fund manager, Wei Chun, has a tenure of 7 years and 13 days, with a total asset scale of 2.772 billion CNY, achieving a best return of 145.36% during his tenure [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Tai Chen Guang's stock has shown significant trading activity, with a notable increase in share price and high levels of financing and margin trading [1] - On January 16, Tai Chen Guang's stock price increased by 5.92%, with a trading volume of 3.09 billion yuan, and a net financing outflow of 4.97 million yuan [1] - As of January 16, the total margin trading balance for Tai Chen Guang was 1.42 billion yuan, which is 5.47% of its market capitalization, indicating a high level of financing activity compared to the past year [1] Group 2 - As of September 30, the number of shareholders for Tai Chen Guang increased by 26.82% to 63,800, while the average number of circulating shares per person decreased by 21.15% to 3,014 shares [2] - For the period from January to September 2025, Tai Chen Guang reported a revenue of 1.21 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 32.58%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 260 million yuan, up 78.55% year-on-year [2] - Since its A-share listing, Tai Chen Guang has distributed a total of 827 million yuan in dividends, with 408 million yuan distributed over the past three years [2]

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for key companies in the optical communication sector, specifically highlighting the "Four Little Dragons 3.0" [10]. Core Insights - The investment logic in optical communication is shifting from leading companies to high-resilience, high-barrier, or core-positioned quality targets as the global AI computing competition intensifies [1][19]. - The report emphasizes the importance of companies with clear technological positioning and performance delivery capabilities in the emerging "Four Little Dragons 3.0" [1][19]. Summary by Sections Historical Perspective: Growth Logic of "Four Little Dragons" - In 2019, the report recommended the first generation of "Four Little Dragons" including Taicheng Light, New Yisheng, Tianfu Communication, and Quartz Co. [2][20]. - By the end of 2024, the second generation included Taicheng Light, Dekeli, Yuanjie Technology, and Tengjing Technology, benefiting from AIDC construction and optical module iteration [2][20]. Future Outlook: Rise of "Four Little Dragons 3.0" - The report suggests focusing on the new generation of "Four Little Dragons 3.0": Dongtianwei, Kecuan Technology, Huilv Ecology, and Zhishang Technology, as silicon photonics technology penetration increases [3][21]. - Dongtianwei is positioned in the upstream core components of optical communication, with a complete product matrix and proactive capacity expansion [21]. - Kecuan Technology benefits from the continuous penetration of silicon photonics, having launched its first 400G/800G high-speed optical module production line [21]. - Zhishang Technology is expected to benefit from the implementation of CPO, producing high-density optical connection solutions [22]. - Huilv Ecology is expanding into the high-speed optical module sector through acquisitions, establishing a comprehensive product matrix from 10G to 1.6T [24]. Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on companies in the optical communication sector such as Zhongji Xuchuang, New Yisheng, Tianfu Communication, Taicheng Light, and Tengjing Technology, among others [8][13]. - It also highlights the importance of companies involved in copper links, computing equipment, liquid cooling, edge computing platforms, and satellite communication [8][13]. Market Performance - The communication sector has shown strong performance, with the optical communication index rising by 2.6% and the IoT sector outperforming with a 4.8% increase [16][18].

Group 1 - The CPO concept in the A-share market has seen significant gains, with multiple companies experiencing notable stock price increases [1] - Notable performers include LianTe Technology, which rose by 10.30%, and KeChuan Technology, which increased by 10.01% [2] - Other companies such as ChangDian Technology and RoboTech also saw substantial gains, with increases of 10% and 9.66% respectively [2] Group 2 - The total market capitalization of LianTe Technology is 28.2 billion, while KeChuan Technology has a market cap of 9.521 billion [2] - Year-to-date performance shows that KeChuan Technology has increased by 60.60%, indicating strong growth potential [2] - Companies like ChangDian Technology and RoboTech have year-to-date increases of 31.57% and 36.39% respectively, reflecting positive market sentiment [2]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry and Companies Involved - **Industry**: Communications Equipment - **Companies Covered**: - Accelink Technologies (002281.SZ) - Eoptolink Technology (300502.SZ) - EverProX Technologies (300548.SZ) - GDS Holdings (GDS.O) - Innolight (300308.SZ) - Suzhou TFC Optical Communication (300394.SZ) - T&S Communications (300570.SZ) - VNET Group (VNET.O) - ZTE (0763.HK) Key Points and Arguments EverProX Technologies (300548.SZ) - Target price raised to Rmb122 from Rmb63, reflecting a 46.5x 2026E EPS valuation, which is +1 standard deviation above the 5-year historical mean due to stronger earnings growth projected at a 152% 3-year CAGR [2][11] - 2025/26/27E earnings increased by 1%/26%/45% driven by robust overseas demand for MPO/AOC components, datacenter cables, and optical transceivers [2][11] - Rated as Neutral due to high current trading P/E of ~45x compared to T&S Communications at ~32x, indicating less upside potential [2][11] Suzhou TFC Optical Communication (300394.SZ) - Target price increased to Rmb222 from Rmb196, with 2026/27E earnings raised by 36%/56% due to anticipated growth in the 1.6T light engine market [3][15] - Maintained Buy rating, citing strong long-term earnings growth potential from CPO/OIO total addressable market opportunities and expected sales of FAU, ELSFP, and MT products [3][15] ZTE (0763.HK) - Downgraded to Neutral from Buy, with target price raised to HK$29.20 from HK$27.50 [4][19] - 2025/26/27E earnings reduced by 16%/14%/11% due to margin impacts from a ramping server business and memory price effects on the smartphone segment, partially offset by tighter operating expenses [4][19] - Valuation set at 15.0x 2026E P/E, which is 1.5 standard deviations above the stock's historical average, supported by positive sentiment towards AI server developments [4][19] Accelink Technologies (002281.SZ) - Coverage transferred with a maintained Sell rating and target price of Rmb24.60 [8][20] Eoptolink Technology (300502.SZ) - Coverage transferred with a maintained Buy rating and target price of Rmb472.00 [9][21] GDS Holdings (GDS.O) - Coverage transferred with a maintained Buy rating and target price of US$51.20 [12] Innolight (300308.SZ) - Coverage transferred with rating suspended [13] T&S Communications (300570.SZ) - Coverage transferred with a maintained Buy rating and target price of Rmb137.00 [16] VNET Group (VNET.O) - Coverage transferred with a maintained Buy rating and target price of US$20.00 [17] Other Important Information - The report indicates potential conflicts of interest due to the firm's business relationships with covered companies, advising investors to consider this report as one of several factors in their investment decisions [5] - The report is not for distribution in the People's Republic of China, excluding Hong Kong and Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors [5]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report discusses the **global AI networking supercycle** driven by technology upgrades and supply shortages, particularly in the optical transceiver market [3][6][12]. - The focus is on **AI infrastructure investments** from global hyperscale AI cloud companies, which are expected to continue through **2026 and 2027** due to competition in large language model (LLM) training and inference [6][14]. Core Companies and Recommendations - **InnoLight (300308 CH)**: Maintained as a **Buy**; expected to dominate the high-end market due to strong R&D and production capabilities, benefiting from the transition to **1.6T transceivers** and **SiPh technology** [3][12]. - **YOFC (6869 HK)**: Upgraded to **Buy** from Neutral; the AIDC business is experiencing strong demand, and the telecom market is stabilizing [3][12]. - **TFC (300394 CH)** and **T&S (300570 CH)**: Both rated as **Buy**; expected to benefit from the CPO value chain and demand for high-end optical transceivers [3][12]. Market Dynamics - **Transceiver Shipments**: Estimated growth from **20 million** units of 800G transceivers and **2.5 million** units of 1.6T transceivers in **2025** to **43 million** and **20 million** units respectively in **2026** [3][7]. - **Market Share**: SiPh transceivers are projected to capture **50-70%** of the market share in the 1.6T segment by **2026** [7]. - **Component Shortages**: Persistent shortages in optical chips are expected to continue, benefiting dominant players with potential price and margin increases [6][7]. Technology Trends - **Optical Transceivers**: The migration to **SiPh** and the introduction of **CPO** technologies are key drivers for the market in **2026** [7][12]. - **Copper Cables**: Despite narratives suggesting a shift to optical communication, copper cables are expected to maintain a significant role in scale-up networks due to their cost advantages and efficiency [8][10]. - **AI Switches**: The adoption of **CPO switches** is increasing, with companies like **Broadcom** and **Nvidia** leading the charge in developing high-performance networking solutions [11][12]. Financial Projections - The report anticipates that the **high-speed copper cable market** could double, reaching **USD 2.8 billion** by **2028** [10]. - The **AI data center** market is expected to expand significantly, with increased demand for high-bandwidth and low-latency solutions [6][14]. Competitive Landscape - Major players in the optical transceiver market include **Nvidia**, **Google**, and **Meta**, each developing proprietary technologies to enhance their AI infrastructure [37][51]. - The competition is intensifying as companies strive to establish their networking standards, such as **Nvidia's NVLink** and **Broadcom's SUE** [20][27]. Conclusion - The global AI networking market is poised for significant growth driven by technological advancements and increasing demand from hyperscale AI companies. Key players are expected to benefit from ongoing innovations and market dynamics, making them attractive investment opportunities.

Group 1 - The CPO concept stocks in the A-share market experienced a widespread decline, with significant drops in several companies [1] - Jingwang Electronics saw a decrease of 4%, while Ruijie Networks, Changxin Bochuang, Hengdongguang, Zhongji Xuchuang, and Xinyi Sheng all fell by over 3% [1] Group 2 - The market capitalization of Jingwang Electronics is 72.8 billion, with a year-to-date increase of 1.15% [2] - Ruijie Networks has a market capitalization of 65.3 billion, with a year-to-date decline of 7.49% [2] - Changxin Bochuang's market capitalization stands at 38.5 billion, with a year-to-date decrease of 7.11% [2] - Zhongji Xuchuang has a market capitalization of 640.1 billion, with a year-to-date decline of 5.57% [2] - Xinyi Sheng's market capitalization is 395.1 billion, with a year-to-date decrease of 7.76% [2]

Group 1 - The CPO concept experienced a volatile decline in early trading, with several companies in the sector facing significant drops in stock prices [1] - New Yi Sheng, Dong Tian Wei, Hui Lv Ecology, and Heng Dong Guang all saw declines exceeding 5% [1] - Other companies such as Zhong Ji Xu Chuang, Teng Jing Ke Ji, Yuan Jie Ke Ji, and Tai Chen Guang also followed the downward trend [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Taicheng Light (300570), emphasizes its commitment to comply with the Shenzhen Stock Exchange's regulations regarding performance forecasts and will fulfill its disclosure obligations if it meets the information disclosure standards [1] Group 1 - The company will provide updates on its production capacity in Vietnam in its upcoming 2025 annual report [1]