Pretiorates’ Thoughts 120 – The roof and beams are creaking It has been almost exactly a month since we pointed out that the inner strength of the US stock market no longer looks quite so fresh. In our Thoughts on January 21, 2026, we speculated whether rising interest rates in Japan could be the domino that would fall – or whether SCOTUS might rule US import tariffs illegal. In the end, the trigger for a correction is actually secondary. The key thing is whether you are prepared when the first domino fall ...

Core Insights - The global investment wave in AI is reshaping the technology industry and capital markets, characterized by significant capital accumulation since 2008, driven by large models, computing infrastructure, and data center construction [1] - The current AI investment cycle is marked by larger scales, faster paces, and shorter depreciation cycles compared to traditional tech cycles, creating a feedback loop that may lead to systemic risks [1] - The AI industry is experiencing a dual-track development between profit potential and cost realities, leading to market fluctuations between prosperity and bubbles [1] AI Investment Historical Progression - The early exploration phase (1950s-1980s) focused on academic research with limited investment, primarily funded by government grants [2] - The AI winter (1980s-1990s) saw a significant reduction in investment due to unmet market expectations and technological limitations [2] - The revival phase (2000s-2010s) was driven by the internet and big data, leading to renewed investment interest, particularly in data-driven algorithms [3] - The rapid development of generative AI since 2021 has sparked a new investment frenzy, with significant stock price increases for major companies like NVIDIA (up 964%) and Google (up 211%) [4] Industry Structure and Participants - The AI industry is advancing across three levels: infrastructure, platforms, and applications, with various stakeholders driving capital flow and technology implementation [5] - Major tech companies and cloud providers are the primary drivers of infrastructure and platform capabilities, while smaller cloud service providers and private equity are facilitating access to AI services for SMEs [7] - The financing structure for AI infrastructure is becoming more diversified, involving private credit and various forms of debt financing, which introduces complexities in risk management [8] Financing Forms and Cycle Characteristics - AI hardware, particularly GPUs and AI-optimized servers, has a short update cycle, leading to intensive capital expenditures and rapid depreciation [10] - In large AI data center projects, GPUs account for approximately 40-50% of total capital expenditures, significantly impacting financial pressures [10] Similarities and Differences with the Dot-Com Bubble - The current AI investment trend shares similarities with the 1999 internet bubble, including market enthusiasm and overvaluation of companies [11] - However, the technological foundation of AI is more robust, with established applications across various industries, unlike the immature internet technologies of the late 1990s [12] - The AI investment landscape is more diverse, involving various financing methods and a stronger connection to global infrastructure, which provides long-term value [12] Potential for AI Bubble and Transmission Paths - The potential for an AI bubble to burst is linked to valuation logic, macroeconomic policies, and global capital flows, with a likelihood of gradual structural adjustments rather than a sudden collapse [15] - Key triggers for a potential bubble burst include slower-than-expected commercialization of AI models and rising refinancing costs due to tightening monetary policies [16] Cross-Border Risk Transmission - The global nature of AI investments means that market adjustments could have cross-border impacts, particularly in emerging markets reliant on foreign currency financing [18] - Macroeconomic policies from major central banks will significantly influence the risk landscape, affecting debt burdens and risk premiums across the AI investment spectrum [19]

After being essentially flat over the past year, Amazon is poised for a breakout.There are currently an even dozen companies with a market cap of $1 trillion or more, but only three are members of the prestigious $3 trillion club: Nvidia at $4.6 trillion, Apple at $3.9 trillion, and Alphabet at $3.7 trillion (as of this writing). With a market cap of nearly $2.2 trillion, it seems like it's just a matter of time before Amazon (AMZN 2.39%) joins that elite group. Yet recent events have sent some investors he ...

来源：环球网 【环球网科技综合报道】2月24日消息，据hypebeast援引MacRumors报道称，苹果公司正加速推进其首 款可折叠智能手机iPhone Fold的研发进程，目标发布时间锁定在2026年底或2027年初。 行业分析师普遍预计iPhone Fold的售价将处于高端区间，初步定价可能在2000美元至2500美元之间。 （思瀚） | & Gadgets | | --- | | ago | | යි. | | Comments | | IVO | 具体来看，iPhone Fold将采用主流的"书本式"折叠设计，展开后内屏尺寸约为7.8英寸，外屏则维持在 5.5英寸左右，兼顾便携性与大屏体验。为提升整机耐用性与质感，该设备将配备钛合金外壳，并结合 不锈钢与钛合金材质打造精密铰链结构。 值得注意的是，为优化内部空间布局，iPhone Fold或将放弃Face ID面部识别系统，转而集成侧边指纹 识别模块（Touch ID）。 影像方面，该机预计将搭载双镜头后置摄像头系统，在折叠与展开两种形态下均能提供完整的拍摄功 能，确保用户在不同使用场景中获得一致的摄影体验。 ...

报道还推测，苹果将保留广受欢迎的橙色配色。另有消息称，苹果正在测试紫色或棕色版本，但彭博社 认为这些实际上是苹果正在测试的红色变体。 来源：环球网 外媒称，相较之下，苹果首款可折叠设备iPhone Fold则采取更为保守的配色策略。据消息人士透露，该 机型将仅提供经典色，以确保产品在首次亮相时维持高端、稳重的品牌形象。（思瀚） 外媒称，传统上，Pro 机型则通常采用较为低调的配色，但iPhone 18 Pro 系列将采用比以往更加鲜艳的 配色。 【环球网科技综合报道】2月24日消息，据AppleInsider援引彭博社报道称，苹果公司正在为iPhone 18 系 列两款Pro机型测试全新的红色配色。 ...

2月24日消息，OPPO ColorOS设计总监陈希发微博吐槽苹果最新旗舰iPhone17Pro多处卡顿。 他表示，不止是开机流程，进入之后的各种日常卡顿更是数不胜数，完全开始不讲究了，"我想这家公 司内部一定发生了一些什么变化。" 以下为其微博原文： 之前有台公司的iPhone，今天退库要激活机器查看imei，结果我分别卡在了 '书面语与口头语'，这一步匪夷所思，不知道一直在loading什么，按钮显示不可用； '需要6位密码'，这一步也不知道一直在loading什么，按钮显示可用，但点了没反应； '靠近登录iCloud账户'，因为激活需要登录，所以使用其他登录的设备靠近，但如果已登录账户的 iPhone不小心退出了靠近流程，那当前这台手机的流程回卡住，重启重来； '输入iPad密码'一台古早的iPad，点不记得密码，卡住。 令人震惊这是苹果最新旗舰iPhone 17Pro．的水平，不止是开机流程，进入之后的各种日常卡顿更是数 不胜数，完全开始不讲究了，我想这家公司内部一定发生了一些什么变化。 责任编辑：李思阳 2月24日消息，OPPO ColorOS设计总监陈希发微博吐槽苹果最新旗舰iPhone17Pro ...

分析师还指出："在过去三年中，'美股七巨头'加上甲骨文的资本支出总额约占经营现金流总额的40%或 更低，但在2025日历年，这一占比已上升至约50%，并预计在2026和2027日历年将达到60%以上。尽管 人工智能驱动的需求为长期投资提供了令人信服的逻辑，但短期后果是自由现金流走弱、资本回报受 限，以及对融资环境的敏感度上升。如果债务成为基础设施扩张更为重要的资金来源，我们预计投资者 的关注点将转向资本密集度更低、更加注重投资资本回报率和资本配置效率的资产。" 智通财经APP获悉，根据Evercore ISI的数据，在人工智能(AI)基础设施支出大举扩张之际，微软 (MSFT.US)预计将成为"美股七巨头"中唯一在2026年实现自由现金流增长的超大规模云服务商。 Evercore指出，亚马逊(AMZN.US)、谷歌(GOOGL.US)以及Meta Platforms(META.US)预计将在2026年出 现自由现金流同比下降，另一家不属于"美股七巨头"的大型云服务提供商甲骨文(ORCL.US)的自由现金 流也预计将出现下滑。相比之下，微软在2026年的自由现金流预计将实现5%的增长，"美股七巨头"中 的另外两 ...

Core Viewpoint - Apple is set to launch new products on March 4, including the iPhone 17e, which is expected to be priced at $599, the same as last year's model, potentially signaling a positive shift for the company's stock in 2026 [1][2]. Group 1: Product Launch and Market Performance - The announcement of the iPhone 17 on September 9, 2025, led to a 13% increase in Apple's stock, outperforming the Nasdaq-100 index, which rose only 4.9% during the same period [3]. - Apple reported a 23% year-over-year increase in net sales for the iPhone, along with a 19% rise in diluted earnings per share and a 16% increase in revenue, indicating strong demand and positive momentum [4]. Group 2: Targeting Price-Sensitive Customers - Apple is focusing on attracting budget-conscious consumers by introducing lower-cost MacBook laptops, which could enhance accessibility to its product ecosystem [5][7]. - The introduction of lower-cost products may help Apple gain market share, particularly among corporate clients and in emerging markets, as evidenced by a 38% year-over-year increase in net sales in Greater China, which accounted for $25.5 billion of total net sales [8][9]. Group 3: Stock Performance and Investment Opportunity - Despite a 2.8% decline in stock price year-to-date, the upcoming product refresh could provide a buying opportunity for investors looking to capitalize on potential recovery [10].

但是，苹果全球采购负责人戴维.汤姆(David Tom)表示，这一投资承诺还包括苹果计划今年从台积电亚 利桑那州工厂采购的超过1亿颗芯片。他提到该芯片制造工厂时说："我们将尽可能多地采购这座工厂的 产出。" 台积电亚利桑那州工厂 凤凰网科技讯北京时间2月24日，《华尔街日报》周一发文，披露了苹果公司在美国打造本土制造芯片 的内幕。文章称，苹果正利用其采购能力和投资，推动包括台积电亚利桑那州工厂在内的美国本土芯片 生产，以实现供应链多元化。 在菲尼克斯以北约30分钟车程、散布着仙人掌的一片荒凉土地上，30多台塔吊耸立在一个建筑工地上。 这个工地的面积是纽约中央公园的2.5倍。一座巨型芯片制造厂正在拔地而起，它承载着美国振兴这一 关键产业的希望。 该工厂的最大客户是苹果，该公司正利用其强大的采购能力来助力提升美国的芯片产量。这家公司正寻 求供应链多元化，争取关税豁免，并响应两任总统的号召，帮助美国减少在现代经济基础技术上对外国 供应商的依赖。 全球最大芯片制造商台积电正在建设该厂址，这家公司计划斥资1650亿美元建造六座芯片工厂及更多设 施，使其成为美国最大的建设项目之一。 在特朗普政府的压力下，苹果去年承诺未来 ...

其实iPhone已经算用户黏性高，更换意愿强的系列，由于AppleCare+的存在，很多苹果用户都养成了一 年一换的习惯。你没发现朋友换手机了，可能是没看出iPhone迭代的外观差异。 有朋友问，近几年身边年轻人换手机的频率明显降低。 (11258833) 如今的旗舰手机性能已远超日常使用需求，系统流畅度和应用兼容性多年不落伍。以iPhone 17为例， 虽有升级，但对多数人而言，前两代机型仍能胜任日常使用需求。因此，除非设备损坏或功能严重不 足，年轻人更倾向于延长使用周期，理性消费逐渐成为主流。 ...