Earnings Call 4Q25 & FY25 Guia de cores This presentation was prepared by Ambev S.A. ("Ambev" or "Company") for the exclusive use in the earnings conference call of the fourth quarter and full year of 2025 (4Q25 and FY25). This presentation should not be considered as a complete document and should be analyzed together with the Company's financial statements (DFP) for the year and the respective press release, both available on the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission – SEC and the CVM websites. This pre ...

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Group 1 - Ambev is considered a cheap penny stock, with Barclays maintaining a Hold rating and a price target of $2.5, while Bernstein downgraded it to Market Perform with a price target of $2.88 due to valuation concerns after a 16% year-to-date gain [1][2] - In Q3 2025, Ambev's premiumization strategy led to over 9% growth in volumes for premium and super-premium brands, capturing nearly 50% market share in Brazil [2] - The company's digital ecosystem showed significant growth, with the marketplace initiative's GMV increasing 100% to an annualized BRL 8 billion, and the DTC platform Ze Delivery seeing a 7% GMV increase [2] Group 2 - Despite positive developments, Ambev faced challenges such as softer beer industry volumes in Brazil due to unseasonably cold weather and constrained consumer purchasing power, along with a mid-single-digit decline in Argentina's beer volumes [3] - Financially, Ambev reported a normalized net income of BRL 3.8 billion (up 7%) and a stated net income of BRL 4.9 billion, representing a 36% increase year-over-year [3] - Ambev operates in the production, distribution, and sale of various beverages across Brazil, Central America, the Caribbean, and parts of Latin America and Canada [4]

Core Viewpoint - Ambev's stock has shown a slight recovery after a significant increase in stake by a major hedge fund, despite mixed market sentiment and cautious ratings from analysts [1][6]. Company Performance - Ambev's stock price increased by 3.48% to $2.38, with a market capitalization of $36 billion [2]. - The stock has a 52-week range of $1.73 to $2.58 and a gross margin of 48.20% [2]. - The trading volume reached 47.5 million shares, which is nearly 18% above the three-month average of 39.9 million shares [2]. Market Sentiment - The stock has been on a downward trend for the past week, down 7.0% over that period [6]. - Some investment firms are increasing their holdings in Ambev, while others suggest it may be time to take profits [3][6]. - Bernstein downgraded Ambev from "outperform" to "market perform," citing concerns about the sustainability of this year's rally [6]. Hedge Fund Activity - Squarepoint Ops reported a 400% increase in its stake in Ambev, although this stake is relatively small compared to its total assets under management of nearly $100 billion [7].

Group 1 - Ambev SA (NYSE:ABEV) experienced a significant drop in share prices, falling by 7.63% to close at $2.30 due to a lack of buying catalysts and early window-dressing activities [1] - The company is known for owning Brazil's leading beer brands, including Skol, Brahma, Antarctica, Bohemia, and Quilmes [2] - Bernstein downgraded Ambev's rating from "outperform" to "market perform," citing that current expectations for the company are "overblown," despite confidence in its long-term fundamentals [3] Group 2 - Bernstein recommended investors take profits on Ambev shares and wait for a more attractive entry point before re-entering the stock [3]

Core Insights - Artificial intelligence (AI) is identified as the greatest investment opportunity of the current era, with a strong emphasis on the urgency to invest now [1][13] - The energy demands of AI technologies are highlighted, with data centers consuming as much energy as small cities, leading to concerns about power grid strain and rising electricity prices [2][3] Investment Opportunity - A specific company is positioned as a critical player in the AI energy sector, owning essential energy infrastructure assets that will benefit from the anticipated surge in energy demand from AI data centers [3][7] - This company is not a chipmaker or cloud platform but is described as a "toll booth" operator in the AI energy boom, collecting fees from energy exports and benefiting from the onshoring trend driven by tariffs [5][6] Financial Position - The company is noted for being debt-free and holding a significant cash reserve, amounting to nearly one-third of its market capitalization, which positions it favorably compared to other energy firms burdened with debt [8][10] - It also has a substantial equity stake in another AI-related company, providing investors with indirect exposure to multiple growth engines without the associated premium costs [9][10] Market Trends - The article discusses the broader trends of AI infrastructure supercycles, the onshoring boom due to tariffs, and a surge in U.S. LNG exports, all of which the company is strategically aligned with [14] - The influx of talent into the AI sector is expected to drive continuous innovation and advancements, reinforcing the importance of investing in AI-related companies [12] Conclusion - The company is positioned as a unique investment opportunity within the AI and energy sectors, with potential for significant returns as the demand for energy in AI applications grows [10][15]

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Core Thesis - Ambev S.A. is perceived as undervalued, trading at approximately a 23% discount to its fair value, suggesting a potential annual alpha of 9% if the valuation gap closes within three years [2] Valuation Metrics - As of December 1st, Ambev's share price was $2.57, with trailing and forward P/E ratios of 13.45 and 13.26 respectively [1] - The stock is trading at 14–15× forward P/E compared to its historical average of 17–18×, indicating a potential re-rating towards $2.9/share as margins normalize [4] Financial Performance - Ambev has experienced approximately 12% growth in BRL in 2024 and a long-term CAGR of 10% locally, although its USD performance has faced translation losses with 2–4% declines in EPS and FCF over the past decade [2] - Easing input costs, pricing discipline, and premiumization through brands like Budweiser, Stella, and Corona are contributing to margin recovery [3] Market Conditions - Stabilizing volumes and operating leverage from Brazil's scale, along with strong performance in Latin America South, could enhance profitability [3] - Currency stability and falling interest rates, combined with Ambev's net cash position, support cash generation and a projected 5–6% dividend yield [3] Competitive Landscape - Risks include renewed cost inflation, FX headwinds from BRL depreciation, macroeconomic uncertainty in Brazil and Argentina, competitive pressures from Heineken and local brewers, and limited long-term volume growth in a mature beer market [4] Investor Sentiment - Despite strong fundamentals, there is caution regarding execution missteps or reduced dividends that could negatively impact sentiment [5] - Ambev is not among the 30 most popular stocks among hedge funds, with 23 hedge fund portfolios holding ABEV at the end of Q2, up from 21 in the previous quarter [7]