Core Viewpoint - Albertsons Companies (NYSE: ACI) presents a compelling investment opportunity for 2026, with strong earnings performance despite bearish price action, indicating potential for stock price recovery and significant gains [2][3]. Valuation and Earnings - Albertsons trades at a low valuation of 8x current-year earnings and 6x the 2030 consensus forecast, which is a discount compared to peers like Kroger, which trades at 12x current earnings [4]. - The company has consistently outperformed earnings expectations, reinforcing a bullish outlook despite current market conditions [2][4]. Dividend Yield - Albertsons offers a reliable dividend of 60 cents, yielding approximately 3.5%, which is higher than competitors like Kroger at 2.25% [5]. - The dividend payout is under 30% of the fiscal year 2025 earnings consensus, indicating sustainability and potential for growth [5]. Market Position and Recovery - Following a failed merger with Kroger, Albertsons is trading at a deep value, with institutional and analyst trends suggesting stock accumulation in 2025 as prices fell [6]. - The combination of a favorable value-and-yield proposition positions Albertsons for a robust rebound in the market [6].

Core Viewpoint - Albertsons Companies Inc. is experiencing a decline in stock price, but there is a positive sentiment among analysts regarding potential earnings growth, which may lead to a trend reversal in the future [1][3][4]. Group 1: Stock Performance - The stock price of Albertsons is currently $16.38, reflecting a slight increase of 1.80% or $0.29, after a decline of 5.7% over the past four weeks [2][5]. - The stock has fluctuated between $15.95 and $16.68 during the trading day, indicating volatility [2]. - Over the past year, the stock reached a high of $23.20 and a low of $15.80, showcasing significant price movement [3]. Group 2: Analyst Ratings and Market Sentiment - Telsey Advisory maintains an "Outperform" rating for Albertsons, with a revised price target adjusted from $24 to $22 [1][5]. - There is a strong consensus among Wall Street analysts to raise earnings estimates for Albertsons, suggesting a potential trend reversal for the stock [3][4]. - The current market conditions and analyst sentiment indicate potential opportunities for investors, particularly due to the stock's oversold status [4]. Group 3: Company Overview - Albertsons is a leading grocery retailer in the United States, offering a wide range of products including groceries, pharmacy services, and fuel [1]. - The company competes with major grocery chains such as Kroger and Walmart [1]. - Albertsons has a market capitalization of approximately $9 billion, with a trading volume of 3,323,899 shares on the NYSE [3].

Core Insights - Albertsons Companies, Inc. (ACI) reported third-quarter fiscal 2025 results with sales below expectations but earnings exceeding estimates, showing year-over-year growth in both top and bottom lines [1][2]. Sales Performance - Net sales and other revenues reached $19,123.7 million, slightly below the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $19,160 million, marking a 1.9% year-over-year increase driven by a 2.4% rise in identical sales, an 18% increase in pharmacy sales, and a 21% jump in digital sales [5][10]. - The temporary government shutdown and delayed SNAP funding negatively impacted identical sales by 10-20 basis points [6]. Earnings and Margins - Adjusted quarterly earnings were 72 cents per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 67 cents, with a 1.4% increase from 71 cents in the prior-year period [4][10]. - Gross profit remained flat at $5.25 billion, with a gross margin contraction of 50 basis points year-over-year to 27.4% [6][10]. Expenses and Cost Management - Selling and administrative expenses increased by 0.9% to $4.76 billion, with a decline of 20 basis points year-over-year as a percentage of net sales [8]. - Adjusted EBITDA declined 2.5% year-over-year to $1.04 million, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 5.4%, down 30 basis points year-over-year [9]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is advancing its strategic priorities by enhancing customer value propositions, expanding digital capabilities, and embedding AI and data into core operations [3]. - Ongoing investments in technology modernization and store enhancements are part of the long-term transformation strategy, despite a cautious consumer environment [3]. Financial Position - As of the end of the quarter, cash and cash equivalents totaled $195.1 million, with long-term debt and finance-lease obligations at $8.42 billion and total stockholders' equity at $2.50 billion [11]. - The net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio was 2.29X, indicating a strong balance sheet and capacity for growth funding [13]. Future Outlook - The company updated its fiscal 2025 expectations, projecting identical sales growth between 2.2% and 2.5%, adjusted EBITDA between $3.83 billion and $3.88 billion, and adjusted earnings per share between $2.08 and $2.16 [15][16]. - The anticipated impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act's Medicare Drug Price Negotiation Program are expected to reduce pharmacy sales, affecting fiscal year identical sales by 16-18 basis points [17].

Core Viewpoint - Albertsons Companies, Inc. (ACI) is experiencing significant selling pressure but is positioned for a potential trend reversal due to being in oversold territory and positive earnings outlook from analysts [1]. Group 1: Technical Indicators - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a momentum oscillator that indicates whether a stock is oversold, with readings below 30 typically signaling this condition [2]. - ACI's current RSI reading is 24.44, suggesting that the heavy selling pressure may be exhausting itself and a trend reversal could occur soon [5]. Group 2: Fundamental Analysis - Analysts have raised earnings estimates for ACI, with the consensus EPS estimate increasing by 0.5% over the last 30 days, indicating a potential for price appreciation [7]. - ACI holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), placing it in the top 20% of over 4,000 ranked stocks based on earnings estimate revisions and EPS surprises, further supporting the stock's potential for a turnaround [8].

Core Insights - Albertsons Companies reported increased sales and strong digital growth in Q3 of fiscal 2025, but net income declined compared to the previous year [1][2] Financial Performance - Net income for Q3 2025 was $293.3 million, or $0.55 per share, down from $400.6 million, or $0.69 per share, in Q3 2024 [1] - Adjusted net income reached $390.3 million, or $0.72 per share, compared to $420.3 million, or $0.71 per share, a year earlier [1] - Operating income decreased to $489.7 million from $518.5 million in the same period last year [2] Revenue Growth - Net sales and other revenue rose 1.9% year on year to $19.12 billion, driven by higher pharmacy sales and growth in identical sales [2] - Identical sales increased by 2.4% during the quarter, while digital sales advanced by 21% [3] - Loyalty membership grew by 12% to 49.8 million [3] Profitability Metrics - Adjusted EBITDA totaled $1.03 billion, equivalent to 5.4% of net sales and other revenue [3] - Gross margin declined to 27.4% from 27.9% a year earlier, due to higher delivery and handling costs and a larger contribution from lower-margin pharmacy sales [4] Expenses and Outlook - Selling and administrative expenses fell to 24.9% of net sales and other revenue, compared to 25.1% in the prior-year quarter [4] - Net interest expense increased to $116 million from $109 million, and income tax expense rose to $84.4 million [5] - The company narrowed its fiscal 2025 outlook, forecasting identical sales growth of 2.2% to 2.5% and adjusted EBITDA of $3.82 billion to $3.87 billion [5] Strategic Initiatives - The company continues to project an effective income tax rate of 23% to 24% and capital expenditure of $1.8 billion to $1.9 billion for the financial year [6] - CEO Susan Morris highlighted that investments in technology and AI are reshaping operations and enhancing customer service [6]

Financial Performance - Net sales for the 12 weeks ended November 29, 2025, were $19,123.7 million, an increase of 1.9% compared to $18,774.5 million for the same period in 2024[9] - Operating income for the 12 weeks ended November 29, 2025, was $489.7 million, a decrease of 5.5% from $518.5 million in the same period of 2024[9] - Net income for the 40 weeks ended November 29, 2025, was $698.2 million, down 11.2% from $786.8 million in 2024[11] - Retail segment sales for the 12 weeks ended November 29, 2025, were $18,926.9 million, an increase from $18,595.0 million for the same period in 2024, representing a growth of 1.8%[84] - Net income for the quarter ending September 7, 2024, was reported at $400.6 million, reflecting a strong performance[15] - The company reported a net income of $293.3 million for the 12 weeks ended November 29, 2025, compared to $400.6 million for the same period in 2024, a decline of 26.7%[88] Assets and Liabilities - Total current assets increased to $7,096.8 million as of November 29, 2025, compared to $6,559.0 million as of February 22, 2025, reflecting a growth of 8.2%[8] - Total liabilities rose to $24,591.5 million as of November 29, 2025, up from $23,369.5 million as of February 22, 2025, representing an increase of 5.2%[8] - Long-term debt and finance lease obligations increased to $8,417.0 million as of November 29, 2025, from $7,762.5 million as of February 22, 2025, an increase of 8.4%[8] - As of November 29, 2025, total stockholders' equity is $2,501.8 million, with a net income of $293.3 million for the period[13] Cash Flow and Investments - The company reported a net cash provided by operating activities of $1,649.6 million for the 40 weeks ended November 29, 2025, compared to $1,922.1 million in 2024, a decrease of 14.1%[11] - Cash and cash equivalents decreased to $195.1 million as of November 29, 2025, from $293.6 million as of February 22, 2025, a decline of 33.6%[8] - The company issued long-term debt amounting to $2,585.0 million during the 40 weeks ended November 29, 2025, compared to $50.0 million in the previous year, indicating a significant increase in financing activities[11] Shareholder Activities - The company declared cash dividends of $0.15 per common share, totaling $77.1 million in the latest quarter[13] - The Company repurchased a total of 64.1 million shares of common stock for $1,211.6 million during the 40 weeks ended November 29, 2025, including $600.0 million under an accelerated share repurchase agreement[23] - The total number of Class A Common Stock shares increased to 600,523,680, up from 594,445,268 shares as of February 24, 2024[15] Tax and Expenses - The effective tax rate for the 12 weeks ended November 29, 2025, was 22.3%, up from 3.5% for the same period in 2024, primarily due to state income taxes and the absence of discrete state income tax benefits recognized in the prior year[24] - Employee costs for the 40 weeks ended November 29, 2025, totaled $9,166.4 million, an increase from $8,956.2 million in the prior year, reflecting a rise of 2.3%[84] - Merchandise costs, including advertising, distribution, and freight, for the 40 weeks ended November 29, 2025, were $44,500.9 million, compared to $43,379.7 million in 2024, an increase of 2.6%[84] Legal and Regulatory Issues - The Company is facing allegations of overcharging federal government healthcare programs, with claims exceeding $100 million before trebling and excluding penalties[63] - The U.S. Supreme Court issued an opinion adverse to the Company on June 1, 2023, reversing lower court rulings in the Proctor and Schutte cases[60] - The District Court set a pretrial conference for the Schutte case on March 4, 2024, with a trial date of April 29, 2024[61] - The Company recorded a liability of $21.5 million for settlements related to opioid litigation in New Mexico and Nevada, which was paid by insurers in Q4 of fiscal 2022[68] - The Company is vigorously defending claims in approximately 81 lawsuits related to the opioid epidemic, with ongoing discovery in some cases[67] Inventory and Cost Management - The Company recorded a LIFO expense of $13.2 million for the 12 weeks ended November 29, 2025, compared to $3.5 million for the same period in 2024, indicating a significant increase in inventory costs[20] - The Company’s inventories consist primarily of finished goods, with LIFO inventory costs based on management's estimates of expected year-end inventory levels and inflation rates[20] Comprehensive Income - Total comprehensive income for the 40 weeks ended November 29, 2025, was impacted by a current-period other comprehensive loss of $15.8 million, compared to a gain of $2.9 million in the prior year[79] - The ending accumulated other comprehensive income (AOCI) balance as of November 29, 2025, was $78.9 million, down from $90.9 million at the end of the same period in 2024[79]

Core Insights - Albertsons Companies, Inc. (ACI) is a major player in the U.S. grocery industry, competing with large retailers like Kroger and Walmart, and offers a wide range of products including groceries, pharmacy services, and digital sales [1] Financial Performance - ACI reported an earnings per share (EPS) of $0.72, exceeding expectations of $0.67, indicating effective cost management [2][6] - The company's revenue was $19.12 billion, which fell short of the forecasted $20.56 billion, highlighting challenges in achieving sales targets [2][6] - The third-quarter performance was bolstered by growth in the pharmacy and digital business sectors, which are strategic areas for revenue generation [3][6] Market Valuation - ACI has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 9.20, suggesting a relatively low market valuation compared to competitors [4] - The price-to-sales ratio is 0.11 and the enterprise value to sales ratio is 0.29, indicating modest market valuation in relation to revenue and sales [4] Financial Health - The earnings yield stands at 10.87%, reflecting a strong return on investment for shareholders [5] - ACI has a high debt-to-equity ratio of 4.97, indicating significant reliance on debt financing [5] - The current ratio of 0.81 suggests potential challenges in covering short-term liabilities, pointing to areas for improvement in liquidity management [5]

Core Insights - Albertsons Companies is integrating data and artificial intelligence (AI) into its operations, which is expected to be central to its transformation efforts [1][3] - The company reported a year-over-year growth of 2.4% in identical sales and 21% in digital sales for the third quarter of fiscal 2025 [2] AI Integration and Customer Experience - AI is not viewed as a short-term tool but is being embedded into merchandising, labor, and supply chain to create a sustainable competitive advantage [3] - The implementation of AI has led to increases in basket size, repeat customer visits, and overall loyalty [3] - The "Ask AI" feature has resulted in a 10% increase in basket size for users, indicating significant potential as adoption grows [4] Autonomous Shopping Assistants - Albertsons has introduced autonomous shopping assistants that help customers with meal planning, cart building, and completing grocery tasks [5] - These AI tools are designed to provide a seamless and personalized shopping experience, enhancing the omnichannel customer journey [6] Merchandising and Labor Optimization - AI is being utilized to transform category management and improve margins through enhanced merchandising intelligence [6] - Generative AI is being deployed for labor forecasting and scheduling, which enhances productivity and customer service by ensuring optimal staffing [7] Supply Chain Improvements - AI demand forecasting has become crucial for the supply chain, improving forecasting accuracy, fulfillment, quality, and on-shelf availability [8] - The company's tech and AI initiatives are aimed at being scalable and enterprise-wide, delivering measurable impacts and laying the groundwork for future growth [9]

Labor Market - The U.S. job market is expected to show slow expansion, with an addition of 73,000 jobs in December and a decrease in the unemployment rate to 4.5% from 4.6% in the previous month [2] - Job growth in December is slightly higher than the 64,000 jobs added in November, which had the highest unemployment rate since 2021 [2] - Over the past months, tariffs have negatively impacted hiring, with an average addition of only 17,000 jobs per month from May to November, compared to 147,000 jobs per month in the year leading up to April 2025 [3] - Some experts believe the Bureau of Labor Statistics may be overestimating job growth, with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell suggesting an average loss of 20,000 jobs per month since April [4] Albertsons - Albertsons Cos. reported weaker-than-expected Q3 net sales of $19.12 billion, slightly below the $19.16 billion consensus, leading to a 6% drop in shares [5][6] - Identical sales growth for Q3 was 2.4%, missing estimates due to delayed SNAP funding, which impacted sales by 10 to 20 basis points [6] - The company has lowered its full-year identical sales growth forecast to a range of 2.2% to 2.5%, down from 2.2% to 2.75%, citing impacts from the Inflation Reduction Act's Medicare Drug Price Negotiation Program [6] Apogee Enterprises - Apogee Enterprises has cut its fiscal 2026 outlook again, resulting in an 11% drop in stock price after lowering its full-year net sales and profit forecasts for the second consecutive quarter [16][17] - The company now expects fiscal 2026 net sales of $1.39 billion and adjusted earnings per share of $3.40 to $3.50, down from previous guidance of $1.39 billion to $1.42 billion and adjusted EPS of $3.60 to $3.90 [17] - CFO Matthew Osberg has resigned, and Mark Augdahl has been named interim CFO, following a recent change in CEO [18]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Identical sales grew by 2.4%, while digital sales increased by 21% [5][22] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 was $1.039 billion, with adjusted EPS at $0.72 per diluted share [25] - Gross margin was reported at 27.4%, a decline of 55 basis points year-over-year, but improved sequentially from Q2 [24] - Selling and administrative expense rate decreased to 24.9%, down 33 basis points year-over-year [24] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Pharmacy and health sales increased by 18%, driven by strong execution in immunizations and core prescriptions [13][23] - Loyalty membership grew by 12% to over 49 million members, enhancing customer engagement [14][15] - The media collective saw double-digit growth year-over-year, contributing to high-margin growth [15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Digital penetration reached 9.5%, with over half of orders delivered in three hours or less [12] - The company continues to gain market share in e-commerce, with sales up 21% this quarter [12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on leveraging technology and AI to enhance customer experience and operational efficiency [8][9] - Strategic priorities include modernizing capabilities, scaling digital engagement, and monetizing the media collective [8][12] - The company aims to grow its own brands penetration from 25% to 30% [16] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The operating environment remains mixed, with pressure across income segments, leading to cautious consumer spending [20] - The company is confident in its ability to deliver long-term profitable growth through strategic investments and productivity initiatives [29][30] - The outlook for fiscal 2025 has been updated, with identical sales expected to range from 2.2% to 2.5% [30] Other Important Information - The company is committed to a $1.5 billion productivity plan over the next three fiscal years [18] - Capital expenditures for Q3 were $462 million, focusing on store upgrades and digital technology [25] - The company refinanced $1.5 billion of existing indebtedness, demonstrating balance sheet strength [28] Q&A Session Summary Question: How is the overall pricing environment lined up relative to your initial expectations? - The company is taking a surgical and targeted approach to price investments, seeing positive results in categories where investments were made [39][40] Question: How are you progressing with getting new pharmacy shoppers to purchase more grocery items? - The company is pleased with pharmacy growth, noting that many customers are already shopping in grocery, leading to deeper engagement [47] Question: Can you comment on the potential headwinds for FY26? - The company remains confident in its strategy, with a focus on pharmacy and digital growth, despite potential headwinds from the Inflation Reduction Act [54][56] Question: What are the key drivers for the lower guide on ID sales? - The guidance reflects the impact of the Inflation Reduction Act, with potential upside from pharmacy growth depending on various factors [58][59] Question: How are you tracking against the cost savings plan? - The company is executing well against its $1.5 billion productivity plan, with ongoing process redesign and technology integration [68]