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Core Insights - Adaptive Biotechnologies reported a revenue of $93.97 million for the quarter ended September 2025, marking a year-over-year increase of 102.4% and exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $68.02 million by 38.15% [1] - The company posted an EPS of -$0.15, an improvement from -$0.22 a year ago, with a surprise of 6.25% compared to the consensus estimate of -$0.16 [1] Revenue Performance - ClonoSEQ test volume reached 27,111, surpassing the average estimate of 26,482 based on three analysts [4] - Total Immune Medicine revenues were reported at $37.19 million, significantly higher than the average estimate of $11.95 million, reflecting a year-over-year change of 314.8% [4] - Revenues from MRD-Regulatory milestone stood at $6.5 million, exceeding the average estimate of $2.08 million [4] - Total MRD revenues were $56.79 million, compared to the average estimate of $48.74 million, representing a year-over-year increase of 51.6% [4] - MRD-Service revenue was reported at $50.29 million, slightly above the average estimate of $46.66 million [4] - Immune Medicine revenue from collaboration reached $33.74 million, significantly higher than the two-analyst average estimate of $10.36 million, with a year-over-year change of 860.8% [4] - Immune Medicine revenue from service was $3.44 million, below the estimated $4.37 million, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 36.9% [4] Stock Performance - Shares of Adaptive Biotechnologies have returned +17.9% over the past month, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +1% change [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating potential performance in line with the broader market in the near term [3]

分组1 - Adaptive Biotechnologies reported a quarterly loss of $0.15 per share, slightly better than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $0.16, and an improvement from a loss of $0.22 per share a year ago, resulting in an earnings surprise of +6.25% [1] - The company achieved revenues of $93.97 million for the quarter ended September 2025, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 38.15%, and showing significant growth from $46.44 million in the same quarter last year [2] - The stock has increased approximately 182.2% since the beginning of the year, outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 15.1% [3] 分组2 - The earnings outlook for Adaptive Biotechnologies is crucial for investors, as it includes current consensus earnings expectations for upcoming quarters and any recent changes to these expectations [4] - The trend of estimate revisions for the company was mixed prior to the earnings release, resulting in a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating expected performance in line with the market [6] - Current consensus EPS estimate for the next quarter is -$0.15 on revenues of $67.16 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is -$0.68 on revenues of $245.1 million [7] 分组3 - The Medical - Biomedical and Genetics industry, to which Adaptive Biotechnologies belongs, is currently ranked in the top 40% of over 250 Zacks industries, suggesting a favorable outlook compared to lower-ranked industries [8]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total company revenue for Q3 2025 was $94 million, representing a 102% increase year over year [14] - Adjusted EBITDA was $28 million compared to a loss of $14.3 million a year ago [14] - Net income for the quarter was $9.5 million [14] - MRD revenue grew 52% year over year to $56.8 million [14] - Total company gross margin, excluding non-cash revenue from Genentech, was 70% [15] - Total operating expenses were $83.7 million, up 6% year over year [15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - ClonoSEQ clinical revenue grew 83% year over year and 18% quarter over quarter [6] - ClonoSEQ test volume increased 38% year over year to 27,111 tests delivered [14] - MRD Pharma revenue grew 11% year over year, including $6.5 million in milestone revenue [10] - Immune medicine revenue from pharma and academic services was $3.4 million, down from $5.5 million a year ago [15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Blood-based testing now represents 45% of total MRD test volume, achieving the full-year goal ahead of plan [6] - Community-based testing accounted for 31% of total ClonoSEQ volume [7] - The number of ordering healthcare providers grew 38% year over year to over 4,100 [7] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on expanding MRD testing integration into patient care and enhancing clinical utility [4] - EMR integration efforts are aimed at increasing test volume and protecting against competition [8] - The company plans to further expand its EMR footprint and expects continued acceleration from integrated accounts [9] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the trajectory of the MRD business, highlighting its cash flow positivity and consistent growth [18] - The company is raising its full-year MRD revenue guidance to a range of $202-$207 million, reflecting stronger than expected performance [17] - Management noted that recent guideline updates are expected to enhance clinical uptake and utilization of MRD testing [30] Other Important Information - The NCCN guidelines were updated to incorporate MRD-guided treatment options, enhancing the clinical relevance of ClonoSEQ [5] - The company achieved several policy wins, including coverage from major payers, which is expected to drive future growth [7] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on MRD pharma business backlog - Management indicated that the $200 million backlog is expected to be recognized generally over a five to seven-year timeframe, with strong bookings anticipated for 2026 and beyond [20] Question: Expectations for MRD volume growth in 2026 - Management expressed confidence in achieving growth in the range of 30% for MRD volume in 2026, supported by various underlying factors [22] Question: ClonoSEQ ASP projections for next year - Management refrained from providing specific numbers for 2026 but expressed confidence in achieving meaningful growth in ASP, with a long-term target of $1,700-$1,800 per test [23][24] Question: Community penetration and sales force strategy - Management noted that community penetration is currently at 30% and emphasized the potential for growth, with no immediate plans for significant expansion of the sales force [37][39] Question: Drivers of sequencing gross margin improvement - The increase in sequencing gross margin to 66% was primarily driven by the implementation of NovaSeq X, which contributed significantly to the improvement [42] Question: Impact of EMR tools on testing frequency - Management explained that EMR tools allow for serial testing orders, which are expected to increase testing frequency and improve patient care [44][46] Question: Future potential for ClonoSEQ as a primary endpoint - Management indicated that efforts are ongoing to establish ClonoSEQ as an accelerated endpoint for approval in CLL and DLBCL, with expectations for faster progress compared to multiple myeloma [57]

Financial Performance - Revenue for Q3 2025 reached $93,973,000, a 102% increase compared to $46,435,000 in Q3 2024[13] - Net income for Q3 2025 was $9,545,000, compared to a net loss of $32,097,000 in Q3 2024[13] - The company experienced a comprehensive income of $9,684,000 in Q3 2025, compared to a comprehensive loss of $31,392,000 in Q3 2024[16] - Net loss for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, was $45.878 million, compared to a net loss of $125.878 million for the same period in 2024, representing a 63.5% improvement[25] - Total revenue for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, was $205.3 million, a significant increase from $131.5 million in the same period of 2024[116] - Adjusted EBITDA for the three months ended September 30, 2025, was $27.95 million, compared to a loss of $14.30 million for the same period in 2024[186] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from the Minimal Residual Disease (MRD) and Immune Medicine business areas is generated through services such as clonoSEQ reports and sample testing, contributing to the company's growth strategy[36] - MRD revenue for the three months ended September 30, 2025, was $56.788 million, up 51% from $37.470 million in the prior year[44] - Immune Medicine collaboration revenue for the three months ended September 30, 2025, was $33.742 million, compared to $3.512 million in the same period of 2024[44] - MRD revenue increased by $19,318,000 (52%) to $56,788,000, primarily driven by a $15,400,000 increase in revenue from clonoSEQ tests[152] - Immune Medicine revenue rose by $28,220,000 (315%) to $37,185,000, largely due to the termination of the Genentech Agreement[153] Expenses and Liabilities - Operating expenses for Q3 2025 totaled $83,683,000, up from $79,067,000 in Q3 2024, indicating a rise of approximately 6%[13] - Research and development expenses were $23,669,000 in Q3 2025, slightly down from $24,163,000 in Q3 2024[13] - The total cost of revenue for the MRD segment was $49.7 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2025[116] - The cost of revenue increased by $1,490,000 (9%) to $18,157,000, mainly due to higher materials costs and shipping expenses[154] - General and administrative expenses decreased by $1.6 million to $53.1 million, making up 26% of total revenue, down from 42%[173] Cash and Assets - Cash and cash equivalents increased to $55,034,000 from $47,920,000, representing a growth of about 15%[11] - Cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash at the end of the period were $57.723 million, up from $41.062 million at the end of September 2024, indicating a 40.6% increase[25] - As of September 30, 2025, cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities totaled $216.8 million, down from $256.0 million as of December 31, 2024[128] - Total assets decreased to $490,610,000 as of September 30, 2025, down from $539,376,000 at the end of 2024[11] Shareholder Equity and Stock Options - Total shareholders' equity increased to $204,253,000 as of September 30, 2025, from $202,485,000 at the end of 2024[11] - The company had a restricted cash balance of $2.7 million as of September 30, 2025, down from $2.9 million at the end of 2024[33] - As of September 30, 2025, a total of 45,198,447 shares of common stock are reserved for future issuance, including 11,060,826 shares from outstanding stock options and 16,942,404 shares from restricted stock units[87] - Stock options outstanding decreased from 12,295,297 at December 31, 2024 to 11,060,826 at September 30, 2025, with a weighted average exercise price of $15.58[92] Future Outlook - The company expects the majority of its non-current deferred revenue to be recognized over approximately three years from September 30, 2025[61] - The company expects variability in revenue in the near term but anticipates long-term growth from current and future products and services[194] - The company plans to utilize existing cash primarily for commercial activities related to clonoSEQ and ongoing research and development initiatives[193] - The company may consider raising additional capital to expand its business and pursue strategic investments[189]

Financial Performance - MRD revenue reached $56.8 million, a 52% year-over-year increase[9] - Excluding milestones, MRD revenue grew by 55% year-over-year[9] - The company's sequencing gross margin was 66%, a 10 percentage point increase year-over-year[9] - The company has a strong cash position of approximately $217 million[9] - The company reduced cash burn by 51%, with 9-month cash burn of approximately $39 million compared to approximately $79 million in 2024[9] MRD Business - clonoSEQ US test volume increased by 38% year-over-year and 7% quarter-over-quarter[14] - clonoSEQ US ASPs (Average Selling Prices) increased by 28% year-over-year and 4% quarter-over-quarter[14] - The company has integrated 11 new EMR (Electronic Medical Records) sites since last quarter[16] Immune Medicine (IM) - Q3'25 revenue growth of 11% Y/Y including milestones (excluding milestones: +3% Y/Y)[19] - Recognized $6.5M in milestone revenue in Q3'25[19] - The company is on track to achieve its cash burn target, with revenue from pharma partnering continuing to fund R&D investment[24] FY 2025 Outlook - The company raised its MRD revenue guidance to between $202 million and $207 million, representing 39%-42% year-over-year growth[35] - The company lowered its OPEX (Operating Expenses) guidance to between $335 million and $340 million[33] - The company lowered its cash burn guidance to between $45 million and $50 million[34]

Revenue Performance - Revenue for Q3 2025 was $94.0 million, a 102% increase from Q3 2024, including $33.7 million from the terminated Genentech Agreement[3] - The MRD business contributed 60% of total revenue, growing 52% year-over-year, with MRD revenue at $56.8 million[4] - clonoSEQ test volume increased by 38% to 27,111 tests delivered compared to Q3 2024[3] - Immune Medicine revenue for Q3 2025 was $3.4 million, excluding revenue from the Genentech Agreement[4] - Revenue from the MRD segment increased to $56,788 million for the three months ended September 30, 2025, up 51.5% from $37,470 million in 2024[24] - Immune Medicine segment revenue rose to $37,185 million for the three months ended September 30, 2025, compared to $8,965 million in 2024, representing a growth of 314.5%[24] Profitability - Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2025 was $28.0 million, compared to a loss of $14.3 million in Q3 2024[7] - Net income for Q3 2025 was $9.5 million, a significant improvement from a net loss of $32.1 million in the same period last year[6] - Adjusted EBITDA for the three months ended September 30, 2025, was $27,953 million, a significant improvement from a loss of $14,300 million in the same period of 2024[23] - Adjusted EBITDA for the Immune Medicine segment was $23,706 million for the three months ended September 30, 2025, compared to a loss of $5,212 million in 2024[24] - The company reported a net loss of $2,042 million in the MRD segment for the three months ended September 30, 2025, an improvement from a net loss of $15,068 million in the same period of 2024[24] Guidance and Forecast - Full year 2025 MRD revenue guidance raised to $202 million to $207 million, reflecting an annual growth of 39% to 42%[8] Expenses and Cash Flow - Total operating expenses for Q3 2025 were $83.7 million, a 6% increase from $79.1 million in Q3 2024[5] - Full year total company cash burn is expected to be between $45 million and $50 million, updated from the previous range[9] - Cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities totaled $216.8 million as of September 30, 2025[7] - The company’s cash and cash equivalents increased from $47,920 million as of December 31, 2024, to $55,034 million as of September 30, 2025, an increase of approximately 14.0%[22] Balance Sheet - Total assets decreased from $539,376 million as of December 31, 2024, to $490,610 million as of September 30, 2025, a decline of approximately 9.0%[22] - Total current liabilities decreased from $98,053 million as of December 31, 2024, to $83,361 million as of September 30, 2025, a reduction of approximately 15.0%[22] - Shareholders' equity increased slightly from $202,485 million as of December 31, 2024, to $204,253 million as of September 30, 2025[22]

Core Insights - Adaptive Biotechnologies reported strong financial growth in Q3 2025, achieving profitability and positive cash flow in its Minimal Residual Disease (MRD) business, driven by the adoption of clonoSEQ [2][4][9] Financial Performance - Revenue for Q3 2025 was $94.0 million, a 102% increase from Q3 2024, with MRD revenue contributing $56.8 million, up 52% year-over-year [4][6] - Operating expenses increased by 6% to $83.7 million compared to $79.1 million in Q3 2024 [5] - Net income for Q3 2025 was $9.5 million, a significant turnaround from a net loss of $32.1 million in Q3 2024 [6] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2025 was $28.0 million, compared to a loss of $14.3 million in the same quarter of the previous year [7] Business Segments - The MRD business accounted for 60% of total revenue, achieving cash flow positivity and an Adjusted EBITDA of $7.0 million [9] - clonoSEQ test volume grew by 38% to 27,111 tests delivered in Q3 2025 compared to Q3 2024 [9] - Immune Medicine revenue was $3.4 million for the quarter, excluding revenue from the terminated Genentech Agreement [4] Guidance and Outlook - The company raised its full-year 2025 MRD revenue guidance to between $202 million and $207 million, reflecting an annual growth of 39% to 42% [10] - Total company operating expenses for the full year are expected to be between $335 million and $340 million, slightly reduced from previous estimates [10][11] - Full-year cash burn is projected to be between $45 million and $50 million, also updated from earlier guidance [11]

Core Insights - The market anticipates Adaptive Biotechnologies (ADPT) to report a year-over-year increase in earnings driven by higher revenues for the quarter ended September 2025 [1] - The earnings report is expected on November 5, and actual results compared to estimates will significantly influence stock price movements [2] Financial Expectations - The consensus estimate indicates a quarterly loss of $0.16 per share, reflecting a year-over-year change of +27.3% [3] - Expected revenues are projected at $68.02 million, representing a 46.5% increase from the same quarter last year [3] Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 10.45% higher in the last 30 days, indicating a positive reassessment by analysts [4] - The Most Accurate Estimate for Adaptive Biotechnologies is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of +29.03% [12] Earnings Surprise Prediction - A positive Earnings ESP is a strong indicator of an earnings beat, especially when combined with a Zacks Rank of 1, 2, or 3 [10] - The company has a Zacks Rank of 3, suggesting a likelihood of beating the consensus EPS estimate [12] Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Adaptive Biotechnologies was expected to post a loss of $0.24 per share but actually reported a loss of -$0.17, resulting in a surprise of +29.17% [13] - The company has successfully beaten consensus EPS estimates in the last four quarters [14] Industry Context - In the Zacks Medical - Biomedical and Genetics industry, Exelixis (EXEL) is also expected to post earnings of $0.68 per share for the quarter ended September 2025, indicating a year-over-year change of +44.7% [18] - Exelixis is projected to have revenues of $589.77 million, up 9.3% from the previous year, with an Earnings ESP of +2.04% [19][20]

Company Overview - Adaptive Biotechnologies (ADPT) is valued at $2.6 billion and operates as a commercial-stage biotech company focused on developing immune-driven clinical products for disease diagnosis and treatment [1] - The company's product pipeline includes immunoSEQ and clonoSEQ [1] Stock Performance - ADPT has experienced significant stock performance, gaining 250% over the past year and recently hitting a three-year high of $17.62 in intraday trading on October 16 [5][7] - The stock has gained 31.18% since a new "Buy" signal was issued by Trend Seeker on August 7 [2][7] - As of the latest trading, ADPT was priced at $16.46, with a 50-day moving average of $13.61 [8] Technical Indicators - Barchart maintains a 100% "Buy" opinion for ADPT, supported by robust technical indicators [7][8] - The stock has a Weighted Alpha of +232.18 and a Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 64.56, indicating strong momentum [8] - There is a technical support level around $16.95 [8] Financial Projections - Revenue for ADPT is projected to grow by 31.78% this year and an additional 14.04% next year [8] - Earnings are estimated to increase by 31.90% this year and another 13.70% next year [8]