Core Insights - Autodesk (NASDAQ: ADSK) is set to announce its earnings on November 25, 2025, with a current market capitalization of $62 billion [2] - The company reported revenue of $6.6 billion over the past twelve months, achieving operational profitability with $1.5 billion in operating profits and a net income of $1.0 billion [2] - The stock's reaction post-earnings will depend on the alignment of results and predictions with investor expectations, suggesting the importance of analyzing past performance for event-driven trading [2] Historical Performance - Over the past five years, Autodesk has recorded 19 earnings data points, resulting in 10 positive and 9 negative one-day (1D) returns, indicating a 53% chance of positive returns [7] - This percentage increases to 64% when considering data from the last three years [7] - The median of the 10 positive returns is 1.4%, while the median of the 9 negative returns is -6.9% [7] Trading Strategies - Investors can prepare for earnings announcements by understanding historical probabilities and positioning themselves accordingly [3] - Analyzing the correlation between short-term (1D) and medium-term (5D) returns can inform trading strategies, particularly if a strong correlation is identified [5][6]

Core Insights - Investors will have a break next week due to the market closure on November 27 for Thanksgiving, allowing time for assessment and reflection after a challenging week for Wall Street [2] - Despite the end of the U.S. government shutdown, some key economic reports are still being canceled due to insufficient survey data, impacting market expectations [3] Earnings Reports - Several companies are scheduled to report earnings next week, including Alibaba Group (BABA), Dell (DELL), Deere & Company (DE), Analog Devices (ADI), Best Buy (BBY), HP (HPQ), and DICK'S Sporting Goods (DKS) [4] - Specific earnings highlights include: - Monday: Agilent Technologies (A), Zoom Communications (ZM), Symbotic (SYM) [5] - Tuesday: Alibaba, Analog Devices (ADI), Dell Technologies, Best Buy (BBY), Autodesk (ADSK), Workday (WDAY), Zscaler (ZS), HP (HPQ), DICK'S Sporting Goods, J.M. Smucker (SJM), and NIO (NIO) [5] - Wednesday: Deere, Li Auto (LI) [5] - Thursday: Intuitive Machines (LUNR) [6] - Friday: Frontline Plc (FRO), Buckle, Inc. (BKE) [6]

Core Insights - Autodesk (ADSK) is set to release its third-quarter fiscal 2026 results on November 25, with expected revenues between $1.80 billion and $1.81 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 14.95% [1] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings per share (EPS) is $2.49, indicating a year-over-year growth of 14.75% [2] Revenue and Earnings Expectations - Autodesk anticipates third-quarter fiscal 2026 revenues of $1.80-$1.81 billion, with diluted non-GAAP EPS expected to be between $2.48 and $2.51 [7] - The AECO segment is a key growth driver, with revenues having grown 23.1% year-over-year in the previous quarter, indicating strong customer activity [3] Business Performance Factors - The company’s expanding subscription and recurring revenue base, along with strong billings momentum, is expected to positively impact third-quarter performance [4] - Autodesk has shown robust cash generation and effective cost management, leading to increased free cash flow and stronger margin leverage [5] Challenges and Headwinds - Autodesk faces potential headwinds from significant exposure to international markets, with currency volatility likely impacting reported results [6] - The transition to a new transaction model may pressure margins due to added costs and temporary inefficiencies [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - Analyst recommendations play a significant role in influencing stock prices, but their reliability is questionable, particularly for Autodesk (ADSK) [1][5]. Group 1: Analyst Recommendations - Autodesk has an average brokerage recommendation (ABR) of 1.56, indicating a consensus between Strong Buy and Buy, based on 27 brokerage firms [2]. - Out of the 27 recommendations, 19 are Strong Buy and 1 is Buy, which accounts for 70.4% and 3.7% of all recommendations respectively [2]. Group 2: Limitations of Brokerage Recommendations - Relying solely on brokerage recommendations for investment decisions may not be wise, as studies show limited success in guiding investors towards stocks with the best price increase potential [5]. - Brokerage firms often exhibit a positive bias in their ratings due to vested interests, leading to a disproportionate number of favorable ratings compared to negative ones [6][10]. Group 3: Zacks Rank vs. ABR - The Zacks Rank, which is based on earnings estimate revisions, is a more reliable indicator of a stock's near-term price performance compared to ABR [8][11]. - Zacks Rank is displayed in whole numbers (1 to 5) and is updated more frequently, reflecting timely changes in earnings estimates, unlike the ABR which may not be up-to-date [9][12]. Group 4: Current Earnings Estimates for Autodesk - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Autodesk's earnings for the current year remains unchanged at $9.92, indicating steady analyst views on the company's earnings prospects [13]. - Due to the unchanged consensus estimate and other factors, Autodesk holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), suggesting caution despite the Buy-equivalent ABR [14].

Core Insights - Autodesk (ADSK) is expected to report quarterly earnings of $2.49 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 14.8% [1] - Projected revenues for Autodesk are anticipated to be $1.8 billion, which represents a 15% increase from the same quarter last year [1] - The consensus EPS estimate has remained unchanged over the past 30 days, indicating analysts' reassessment of their projections [1] Revenue Estimates - Analysts project 'Net Revenue- Maintenance' to be $8.95 million, indicating a decrease of 0.6% year-over-year [4] - 'Net Revenue- Other' is expected to reach $103.57 million, reflecting a decline of 0.4% from the prior year [4] - 'Net Revenue- Subscription' is forecasted at $1.69 billion, showing an increase of 16.2% year-over-year [4] - Total subscription and maintenance revenue is estimated to be $1.70 billion, marking a 16.1% increase from the previous year [5] Product Family Revenue Projections - 'Net Revenue by Product Family- M&E (Media and Entertainment)' is expected to be $102.45 million, indicating a year-over-year increase of 23.4% [5] - 'Net Revenue by Product Family- Other' is projected at $40.60 million, reflecting a significant increase of 31% year-over-year [6] - 'Net Revenue by Product Family- AECO (Architecture, Engineering, Construction and Operations)' is anticipated to reach $877.99 million, showing a 16.9% increase [6] - 'Net Revenue by Product Family- MFG (Manufacturing)' is estimated at $348.82 million, indicating a 13.6% increase from the prior year [7] - 'Net Revenue by Product Family- AutoCAD and AutoCAD LT' is expected to be $425.22 million, reflecting a 6.8% increase year-over-year [7] Billings and Market Performance - Analysts estimate that 'Billings' will reach $1.84 billion, compared to $1.54 billion reported in the same quarter last year [8] - Autodesk shares have decreased by 5.5% over the past month, contrasting with the Zacks S&P 500 composite's decline of 0.3% [8] - Autodesk holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), suggesting it is expected to closely follow overall market performance in the near term [8]

Company Overview - Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK) has a market cap of $63.8 billion and specializes in design, engineering, and digital content creation tools, serving various industries including architecture, construction, manufacturing, product design, and media/entertainment [1] Stock Performance - Over the past 52 weeks, ADSK stock has increased by 2.4%, underperforming the S&P 500 Index, which rose by 13.2% [2] - Year-to-date, ADSK shares are up 1.3%, lagging behind the S&P 500's 14.5% gain [2] - The stock has also underperformed compared to the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK), which returned 22.9% over the same period [3] Investor Sentiment and Challenges - Concerns around profitability, capital efficiency, and strategic uncertainty have contributed to Autodesk's stock lagging behind the market [4] - The company has faced margin pressure, slower-than-expected Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) growth, and high customer acquisition costs, raising questions about its operating efficiency [4] - Activist pressure from Starboard Value has also impacted investor sentiment, challenging Autodesk's spending discipline and governance [4] Earnings Expectations - For the fiscal year ending in January 2026, analysts expect Autodesk's EPS to grow by 17.8% year-over-year to $6.90 [5] - The company's earnings surprise history is mixed, with three beats and one miss in the last four quarters [5] Analyst Ratings - Among 26 analysts covering Autodesk, the consensus rating is a "Strong Buy," with 18 "Strong Buy" ratings, one "Moderate Buy," and seven "Holds" [5] - The current configuration shows a decrease in "Strong Buy" ratings from 19 two months ago [6] - RBC Capital analyst Matthew Hedberg reaffirmed a "Buy" rating on Autodesk, with a mean price target of $365.36, indicating a 17.7% premium to current price levels, and a Street-high price target of $393 suggesting a 30.3% potential upside [6]

Group 1 - Autodesk's stock has underperformed in recent years primarily due to multiple expansion from 2016 to 2021, although current growth is supported by a shift to direct billings [1] - Narweena, an asset management firm, focuses on identifying market dislocations caused by misunderstandings of long-term business prospects, aiming for excess risk-adjusted returns through secular growth opportunities in markets with entry barriers [1] - The research process at Narweena emphasizes company and industry fundamentals to uncover unique insights, with a high risk appetite and long-term investment horizon targeting deeply undervalued stocks [1] Group 2 - The aging population, low population growth, and stagnating productivity growth are expected to create new investment opportunities distinct from past trends, with some industries facing stagnation or secular decline potentially improving business performance due to reduced competition [1] - Conversely, other businesses may encounter rising costs and diseconomies of scale, while economies increasingly favor asset-light businesses, leading to a declining need for infrastructure investments over time [1] - A significant amount of capital is pursuing a limited set of investment opportunities, resulting in rising asset prices and compressed risk premia over time [1]

Group 1 - Autodesk's stock has underperformed in recent years primarily due to multiple expansion from 2016 to 2021, although current growth is supported by a shift to direct billings [1] - Narweena, an asset management firm, focuses on identifying market dislocations caused by misunderstandings of long-term business prospects, aiming for excess risk-adjusted returns through secular growth opportunities in markets with entry barriers [1] - The research process at Narweena emphasizes company and industry fundamentals to uncover unique insights, with a high risk appetite and long-term investment horizon targeting deeply undervalued stocks [1] Group 2 - The aging population, low population growth, and stagnating productivity growth are expected to create new investment opportunities distinct from past trends, with some industries facing stagnation or secular decline potentially improving business performance due to reduced competition [1] - Conversely, other businesses may encounter rising costs and diseconomies of scale, while economies increasingly favor asset-light businesses, leading to a declining need for infrastructure investments over time [1] - A significant amount of capital is pursuing a limited set of investment opportunities, resulting in rising asset prices and compressed risk premia over time [1]

Market Overview - The PCB Design Software Market was valued at USD 4.32 Billion in 2025E and is projected to reach USD 12.11 Billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 13.77% from 2026 to 2033 [1][13]. U.S. Market Insights - The U.S. PCB Design Software Market size was USD 1.19 Billion in 2025E and is expected to grow to USD 3.26 Billion by 2033, with a CAGR of 13.47% during 2026-2033 [3]. - Key drivers include strong R&D capabilities, rapid integration of cloud-based tools and AI, and the demand for fast, small electronics [3]. Segmentation Analysis By Component - In 2025, the Software segment led the market with a share of 72.80%, while the Service segment is the fastest-growing with a CAGR of 13.60% [4]. By Technology - High-end Software dominated the market in 2025 with a share of 46.50%, and the Mainstream Software segment is the fastest-growing with a CAGR of 14.1% [5]. By Deployment - On-premises solutions led the market in 2025 with a share of 58.70%, while the Cloud segment is expected to grow the fastest with a CAGR of 15.4% [6][7]. By Application - Computer & Consumer Electronics held the largest share of 34.60% in 2025, and Automotive Components is the fastest-growing segment with a CAGR of 15.80% [8]. Regional Insights - North America dominated the PCB Design Software Market in 2025E with over 38.20% revenue share, driven by advanced electronic design automation tools and investments in multilayer PCB technologies [9]. - The Asia Pacific region is expected to have the fastest-growing CAGR of 14.92%, attributed to rapid growth in electronics manufacturing and automation in PCB design processes [10]. Key Companies - Major players in the PCB Design Software market include Cadence Design Systems, Siemens EDA (Mentor Graphics), Altium Limited, Autodesk, Inc., and others [14]. Recent Developments - In May 2025, Cadence launched the Millennium M2000 Nvidia-GPU supercomputer, enhancing GPU-accelerated simulation performance for PCB and chip-level verification workflows [18]. - Siemens introduced Xpedition Standard, emphasizing AI features and cloud connectivity for faster design cycles [18].

Group 1 - Autodesk (ADSK) is nearing a key technical support level, attracting investor interest for potential buying opportunities, supported by strong fundamentals and steady demand for its design and engineering software [2][3] - The stock is currently trading within a support zone of $282.32 to $312.04, where it has historically rebounded, with an average peak return of 15.1% observed over the last 10 years [3] - Autodesk has shown consistent revenue growth of 13.8% over the last twelve months (LTM) and an average of 11.7% over the past three years, with a free cash flow margin of nearly 28.0% and an operating margin of 22.9% LTM [6] Group 2 - Autodesk's stock has experienced significant declines during major market downturns, including a 64% drop during the Dot-Com bubble and a nearly 77% decline during the Global Financial Crisis, as well as a 52% decline due to the inflation shock of 2022 [7] - The stock is currently trading at a price-to-earnings (PE) multiple of 60.7, indicating a high valuation relative to earnings [6] - Despite robust fundamentals, Autodesk remains vulnerable to sell-offs during periods of market turmoil, as well as declines triggered by earnings releases or business updates [8]