For the quarter ended September 2024, Aflac (AFL) reported revenue of $2.95 billion, down 40.4% over the same period last year. EPS came in at $2.16, compared to $1.84 in the year-ago quarter. The reported revenue compares to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.65 billion, representing a surprise of -36.61%. The company delivered an EPS surprise of +27.06%, with the consensus EPS estimate being $1.70. While investors closely watch year-over-year changes in headline numbers -- revenue and earnings -- and how ...

Aflac (AFL) came out with quarterly earnings of $2.16 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.70 per share. This compares to earnings of $1.84 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of 27.06%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this insurer would post earnings of $1.59 per share when it actually produced earnings of $1.83, delivering a surprise of 15.09%.Over the last four quarters, the company has surpass ...

FINAL 10/30/2024 Financial Supplement Third Quarter 2024 This document is a statistical supplement to Aflac's quarterly earnings release. Throughout the presentation, amounts presented may not foot due to rounding. As you review the supplement, please note the non-U.S. GAAP financial measures and definitions found at the back of this document. The Company adopted the Financial Accounting Standards Board's Accounting Standard Update 2018-12 Financial Services - Insurance: Targeted Improvements to the Account ...

Core Points - Aflac Incorporated announced the promotion of Virgil R. Miller to president, effective January 1, 2025, while retaining his role as president of Aflac U.S. [1] - Miller's expanded responsibilities will focus on profitable growth, efficiency initiatives, digital capabilities, and product evolution [1] - The company also appointed Audrey Boone Tillman and Max K. Brodén as senior executive vice presidents, effective January 1, 2025 [3] Company Leadership - Virgil R. Miller has been with Aflac since 2004 and has held various leadership roles, including chief operating officer of Aflac U.S. [2] - Audrey Boone Tillman oversees compliance, government relations, corporate communications, and sustainability efforts [4] - Max K. Brodén leads corporate development, investor relations, financial reporting, and has oversight of global investments and risk functions [5] Company Background - Aflac Incorporated is a Fortune 500 company providing financial protection to millions through its subsidiaries in the U.S. and Japan [7] - Aflac is the leading provider of supplemental health insurance in the U.S. and cancer and medical insurance in Japan [7] - The company has been recognized for its ethical practices and sustainability efforts, being included in various prestigious lists for multiple consecutive years [7]

Core Insights - Aflac Incorporated reported a significant decline in total revenues for Q3 2024, amounting to $2.9 billion, down 40.4% from $5.0 billion in Q3 2023, with net losses of $93 million compared to net earnings of $1.6 billion a year ago, primarily due to increased foreign exchange-related losses from yen strengthening by 12.9% during the quarter [1][25]. Financial Performance - Net investment losses in Q3 2024 were $1.4 billion, or $2.51 per diluted share, compared to net investment gains of $423 million, or $0.71 per diluted share in the same quarter last year [2]. - Adjusted earnings for Q3 2024 were $1.2 billion, reflecting a 10.6% increase from $1.1 billion in Q3 2023, with adjusted earnings per diluted share rising 17.4% to $2.16 [3][32]. - For the first nine months of 2024, total revenues decreased by 9.4% to $13.5 billion, with net earnings of $3.5 billion, or $6.23 per diluted share, down from $4.4 billion, or $7.28 per diluted share in the same period of 2023 [6][26]. Shareholder Equity - Shareholders' equity at the end of Q3 2024 was $24.8 billion, or $44.60 per share, compared to $22.7 billion, or $38.63 per share, at the end of Q3 2023 [5]. - The annualized return on average shareholders' equity in Q3 was (1.5)% [5][40]. Aflac Japan Performance - In yen terms, Aflac Japan's net earned premiums were ¥255.4 billion for the quarter, a decrease of 10.5% year-over-year, while total adjusted revenues in yen declined 7.8% to ¥355.3 billion [8]. - Pretax adjusted earnings in yen for the quarter increased 25.5% to ¥158.7 billion, primarily due to lower benefits and expenses [8]. Aflac U.S. Performance - Aflac U.S. net earned premiums increased 2.8% to $1.5 billion in Q3, with total adjusted revenues up 1.4% to $1.7 billion [13]. - Total new annualized premium sales in the U.S. increased 5.5% in the quarter to $379 million, driven by group life and cancer insurance products [15]. Capital Management - The board declared a fourth-quarter dividend of $0.50 per share, with $500 million deployed for share repurchases in Q3 2024 [18][22]. - The company maintained a strong focus on generating profitable growth and managing expenses effectively [19][21].

Core Viewpoint - Aflac Incorporated (AFL) is expected to report a decline in earnings and revenues for the third quarter of 2024, with earnings per share estimated at $1.69, reflecting an 8.2% decrease from the previous year [1][2]. Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings per share is $1.69, indicating an 8.2% decline from the prior-year quarter [1]. - The revenue estimate is pegged at $4.6 billion, which represents a 7% decrease from the year-ago quarter [2]. - Aflac's earnings surprise history shows that the company has beaten estimates in three of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 8.24% [2]. Earnings Prediction Model - Aflac has an Earnings ESP of +0.66%, as the Most Accurate Estimate of $1.70 per share is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate [4]. - The company currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [4]. Revenue Growth Factors - Revenue growth is anticipated to be supported by strong contributions from U.S. operations, driven by increased net earned premiums and higher-yielding fixed-income investments [5]. - The consensus estimate for net earned premiums in the U.S. segment is $1.5 billion, indicating a 3.3% increase from the prior-year quarter [6]. - Adjusted net investment income for the U.S. segment is estimated at $217.3 million, reflecting a 4% growth year-over-year [6]. Japan Segment Challenges - Aflac's Japan segment is expected to face challenges with a decline in net earned premiums, projected at $1.8 billion, indicating a 9.1% decrease from the prior-year quarter [7]. - Despite the challenges, solid persistency rates may provide some support to the segment's quarterly results [7]. Consolidated Financial Estimates - The consensus estimate for consolidated net earned premiums is $3.4 billion, indicating a 2.4% decrease from the prior-year quarter [8]. - Total net investment income is estimated at $952.6 million, reflecting a 5.1% decline year-over-year [8]. - Expense ratios in both segments are expected to improve due to prudent expense management efforts [8]. Stock Performance - Aflac's shares have gained 33.8% year-to-date, outperforming the industry growth of 33.4%, the broader Zacks Finance sector's 17% rise, and the S&P 500 index's 21.9% increase [9].

Core Insights - The Finance sector's third-quarter 2024 earnings are projected to improve by 10%, with revenues expected to rise by 5.9% [1] - Insurance industry results are anticipated to benefit from better pricing, exposure growth, accelerated digitalization, and favorable interest rates, although catastrophe losses may impact profitability [1][3] Industry Overview - Underwriting results for insurers are likely to improve due to better pricing, increased exposure, solid retention, new business growth, and favorable reserve development [3] - Catastrophe losses, particularly from Hurricane Helene, are expected to affect profitability, with estimated economic losses exceeding $35 billion and insured losses over $12 billion [3] - Global commercial pricing saw a decline for the first time in seven years, while the U.S. experienced a 3% increase in pricing [4] Company Performance Expectations - **Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B)**: Expected to benefit from improved pricing and solid retention, with a Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings at $4.81, a decrease of 3% year-over-year [6][7] - **MetLife Inc. (MET)**: Anticipated to see solid performance driven by Group Benefits and international segments, with earnings estimated at $2.16, reflecting a 9.6% increase year-over-year [7] - **Lincoln National Corporation (LNC)**: Projected to achieve significant growth with earnings expected at $1.64, indicating a 613% increase from the previous year [8] - **Willis Towers Watson plc (WTW)**: Expected to benefit from geographic diversification and operational efficiency, with earnings estimated at $2.68, a 19.4% increase year-over-year [9] - **Aflac Inc. (AFL)**: Anticipated to see a decrease in earnings to $41.69, down 8.2% from the previous year, despite product innovations and cost-saving initiatives [10] Market Trends - Increased travel is likely to have driven up auto premiums, although the loss ratio may be negatively impacted by higher repair and medical costs [4] - A stronger mortgage market is expected to favor mortgage insurance premiums, while low unemployment rates may benefit commercial and group insurance [4] - Life insurers are focusing on protection products, which is expected to drive solid sales and improve investment income due to a larger asset base [5]

Core Insights - Aflac (AFL) is expected to report quarterly earnings of $1.69 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 8.2% and revenues of $4.6 billion, down 7% from the previous year [1] - Analysts have revised the consensus EPS estimate upward by 0.9% over the last 30 days, indicating a reassessment of initial forecasts [1] Revenue Estimates - 'Revenues- Other income (loss)' is projected to be $36.19 million, showing a year-over-year decline of 23% [2] - 'Revenues- Net investment income' is expected to reach $952.63 million, indicating a decrease of 5.1% year-over-year [2] - 'Revenues- Total net earned premiums' is forecasted at $3.39 billion, reflecting a change of -2.4% from the year-ago quarter [2] Adjusted Revenue Projections - 'Total adjusted revenues- Corporate and other' is estimated at $237.10 million, representing a significant increase of 106.2% from the previous year [3] - 'Total adjusted revenues- Aflac Japan' is projected to be $2.51 billion, down 5.8% year-over-year [3] - 'Total adjusted revenues- Aflac Japan- Total net earned premiums' is expected to be $1.79 billion, indicating a decline of 9.1% [3] - 'Total adjusted revenues- Aflac Japan- Net investment income' is forecasted at $709.98 million, showing a slight increase of 0.7% [3] - 'Total adjusted revenues- Aflac U.S.- Other income' is anticipated to reach $17.00 million, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 48.5% [3] Key Metrics - 'Tot. Ben. /Premium - Aflac Japan' is expected to be 67.0%, up from 54.8% in the previous year [4] - 'Tot. Adj. Expenses/Total Adj. Rev. - Aflac U.S.' is projected at 38.9%, compared to 40.6% last year [4] - 'Tot. Ben. /Premium - Aflac U.S.' is forecasted to be 45.5%, an increase from 35.9% in the same quarter last year [4] - 'Tot. Adj. Expenses/Total Adj. Rev. - Aflac Japan' is expected to be 20.5%, up from 19% in the previous year [4] Stock Performance - Over the past month, Aflac shares have returned +1.8%, slightly outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +1.4% change [4]

Core Insights - Aflac Incorporated (AFL) has outperformed the industry with a 47.5% share price increase over the past year, compared to the industry's 41.8% growth [1] - The company benefits from strong U.S. sales, strategic growth initiatives, product enhancements, and digital transformation [1][2] - Aflac's earnings estimates for 2024 and 2025 indicate growth, with a projected increase of 8.5% and 4.9% respectively [2] Financial Performance - Aflac's return on equity stands at 16.2%, slightly above the industry average of 16.1%, indicating efficient use of shareholders' funds [1] - The company generated $1.1 billion in operating cash flows in the first half of 2024, with cash and cash equivalents increasing by 40.7% from the end of 2023 [3] - Aflac's leverage ratio is 22.2%, which is below the industry average of 22.5%, showcasing a solid financial position [3] Revenue Growth - Net earned premiums in Aflac's U.S. unit rose by 2.7% year over year in the first half of 2024, driven by strong sales and strategic initiatives [2] - The company is focused on introducing new products and enhancing existing offerings to meet evolving customer needs [3] Digital Transformation - Aflac is investing in digital solutions to improve operational efficiency and transition to digital sales channels, which is expected to support healthy profit margins [3]

Group 1 - Aflac has consistently surpassed earnings estimates, averaging a 10.08% beat over the last two quarters [1] - In the most recent quarter, Aflac reported earnings of $1.83 per share, exceeding the expected $1.59 per share by 15.09% [1] - The previous quarter also saw Aflac beat estimates, reporting $1.66 per share against an expectation of $1.58 per share, a surprise of 5.06% [1] Group 2 - There has been a favorable change in earnings estimates for Aflac, with a positive Zacks Earnings ESP indicating a strong potential for an earnings beat [2] - Stocks with a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 3 or better have a nearly 70% chance of producing a positive surprise [2] - Aflac currently has an Earnings ESP of +8.06%, suggesting increased analyst optimism regarding its near-term earnings potential [3] Group 3 - The next earnings report for Aflac is expected to be released on October 30, 2024 [3] - A negative Earnings ESP does not necessarily indicate an earnings miss, as many companies can still beat consensus estimates [4] - It is important to check a company's Earnings ESP ahead of its quarterly release to improve the odds of success [4]