Technical Analysis - Air Lease Corporation (AL) has reached a key level of support, with its 50-day simple moving average crossing above its 200-day simple moving average, indicating a "golden cross" [1] - A golden cross signifies a potential bullish breakout, formed when a short-term moving average crosses above a longer-term moving average [1] Golden Cross Stages - The golden cross event consists of three stages: the stock price bottoms out, the shorter moving average crosses above the longer moving average, and the stock maintains upward momentum [2] - The golden cross is contrasted with a death cross, which indicates potential bearish price movement [2] Performance and Outlook - Over the past four weeks, AL has gained 34%, and it currently holds a 2 (Buy) rating on the Zacks Rank, suggesting a potential breakout [3] - The positive earnings outlook for AL is supported by one upward revision in earnings estimates over the past 60 days, with no downward revisions, and an increase in the Zacks Consensus Estimate [3] Investment Consideration - Given the significant technical indicator and the positive movement in earnings estimates, AL should be considered for a watchlist [4]

Core Viewpoint - Air Lease Corporation (AL) reported strong first-quarter 2025 results, with earnings and revenues exceeding expectations, driven by increased rental revenues and aircraft sales, despite higher interest expenses [1][2]. Financial Performance - Quarterly earnings per share (EPS) reached $1.51, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.24, marking a 15.3% year-over-year improvement [1]. - Total revenues amounted to $738.3 million, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $710.8 million, and grew 11.3% year over year [2]. Revenue Breakdown - Revenues from the rental of flight equipment increased by 5% year over year to $645 million, attributed to fleet growth, although offset by a $12.7 million decrease in end-of-lease revenue [4]. - Revenues from aircraft sales, trading, and other sources surged by 90% year over year to $93 million, driven by heightened sales activity, including $61 million in gains from the sale of 16 aircraft [4]. Operating Expenses and Financial Position - Operating expenses rose by 13.4% year over year to $598.6 million [5]. - As of March 31, 2025, Air Lease owned 487 aircraft with a net book value of $28.6 billion, and the total fleet size was 804 [5]. - Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the first quarter were $456.62 million, down from $472.55 million in the previous quarter, while debt financing decreased to $19.8 billion from $20.2 billion [6]. Management Commentary - The CEO highlighted a strong quarter characterized by fleet expansion, significant sales gains, and insurance settlements related to aircraft in Russia, while noting no aircraft deliveries to countries with reciprocal tariffs [3]. - The company continues to benefit from robust global aircraft demand amid significant supply constraints [3].

Core Insights - Air Lease (AL) reported quarterly earnings of $1.51 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.24 per share, and showing an increase from $1.31 per share a year ago, resulting in an earnings surprise of 21.77% [1] - The company generated revenues of $738.28 million for the quarter ended March 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 3.86% and up from $663.31 million year-over-year [2] - Air Lease has outperformed the S&P 500, with shares losing about 0.1% since the beginning of the year compared to the S&P 500's decline of -3.3% [3] Earnings Outlook - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $1.34 on revenues of $715.57 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is $5.48 on revenues of $2.91 billion [7] - The estimate revisions trend for Air Lease is mixed, leading to a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating expected performance in line with the market in the near future [6] Industry Context - The Transportation - Equipment and Leasing industry is currently in the bottom 38% of over 250 Zacks industries, suggesting that the outlook for the industry can significantly impact stock performance [8]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q1 2025, the company generated revenues of $738 million and diluted earnings per share of $3.26, benefiting from fleet expansion and insurance settlements [7][8] - The company received $329 million in insurance proceeds during the quarter, with an additional $227 million received shortly after, contributing to record levels in revenue, fleet net book value, and book value per common share [8][30] - Interest expense increased by approximately $28 million year over year, driven by a rise in the composite cost of funds to 4.26% [28][29] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company purchased 14 new aircraft, adding roughly $800 million in flight equipment, and sold 16 aircraft for $521 million in proceeds [9][26] - Rental revenue rose 5% year over year, totaling approximately $645 million, while lease yields remained flat compared to the previous year [26] - Sales proceeds from aircraft sales totaled $521 million, generating a gain on sale margin of approximately 13% [27] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Airlines in Asia reported strong passenger traffic and forward bookings, while North American airlines experienced softer traffic due to tariff announcements [11][12] - European airlines continued to show robust demand for aircraft, with positive earnings reported by major carriers like Lufthansa and Ryanair [13][14] - The global airline fleet remains behind in replacing older aircraft, with supply constraints expected to continue for the next three to four years [16][17] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to consider a wide range of capital allocation options, including organic and inorganic growth, as well as returning capital to shareholders [23] - The management emphasized the importance of maintaining flexibility in capital allocation decisions, particularly in light of ongoing insurance recoveries and market conditions [31][34] - The company is focused on driving shareholder value over the long term, despite geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainties [23][34] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the company's prospects for 2025 and beyond, citing strong demand in Asia, Europe, and the Middle East [20][23] - The impact of tariffs on the airline industry remains uncertain, but management believes that the situation will be resolved without significant long-term disruptions [21][22] - The company is closely monitoring the debt capital markets and remains cautious in its approach to capital allocation [23][34] Other Important Information - The company highlighted that 87% of its business is outside North America, indicating a diversified market presence [15] - The management team acknowledged the retirement of Steve Hazy, recognizing his significant impact on the aircraft leasing industry [24][25] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you provide examples of lease extensions or order book placements post-tariffs? - Management shared a recent lease extension with a major airline in Asia, with rates significantly higher than previous COVID-era rates [39] Question: What are the priorities for capital allocation? - Management indicated that all options, including buybacks, M&A, and increased dividends, are under consideration, with decisions expected in the coming quarters [46][48] Question: How do you view the potential for organic growth opportunities? - Management expressed flexibility in pursuing organic growth, including potential acquisitions of used aircraft, while maintaining discipline in new aircraft orders [58][60] Question: What are the expectations for net margins and profitability? - Management reaffirmed that there are no changes to profitability expectations for the year, with Q1 tracking positively against internal targets [75][76]

Air Lease (AL) Q1 2025 Earnings Call May 05, 2025 04:30 PM ET Speaker0 Good afternoon. My name is Audra, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Air Lease Q1 twenty twenty five Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question and answer session. I will now turn the call over to Mr. Jason Arnold, Head of Investor Relations. Mr. Arnold, you may begin yo ...

Table of Contents UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION Washington, D.C. 20549 FORM 10-Q ☒ QUARTERLY REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 For the quarterly period ended March 31, 2025 OR ☐ TRANSITION REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 For the transition period from to Commission file number 001-35121 AIR LEASE CORPORATION (Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter) Delaware 27-1840403 (State or other ju ...

Financial Performance - Revenues for Q1 2025 increased by 11.3% to $738.3 million compared to $663.3 million in Q1 2024[2] - Net income attributable to common stockholders rose 274.5% to $364.8 million, or $3.26 per diluted share, from $97.4 million, or $0.87 per diluted share, in the prior year[7] - Total revenues for Q1 2025 were $738.3 million, an increase of 11.3% compared to $663.3 million in Q1 2024[29] - Net income attributable to common stockholders for Q1 2025 was $364,751,000, compared to $97,441,000 in Q1 2024, representing a significant increase[35] - Earnings per share (EPS) for Q1 2025 were $3.27 (basic) and $3.26 (diluted), compared to $0.88 (basic) and $0.87 (diluted) in Q1 2024[29] - The pre-tax margin for Q1 2025 was 63.9%, significantly higher than 20.4% in Q1 2024[29] - Adjusted net income before income taxes for Q1 2025 was $169.5 million, compared to $146.3 million in Q1 2024[33] - The adjusted pre-tax margin for Q1 2025 was 23.0%, up from 22.1% in Q1 2024[33] - Adjusted diluted earnings per share before income taxes increased to $1.51 in Q1 2025 from $1.31 in Q1 2024, reflecting a growth of 15.3%[35] Revenue Sources - Rental revenues increased by approximately 5% to $645 million, driven by fleet growth, despite a $12.7 million decrease in end-of-lease revenue[5] - Aircraft sales and trading revenues surged by 90% to $93 million, with gains from the sale of 16 aircraft totaling $61 million[6] - The company recognized a net benefit of $332 million from insurance settlements related to aircraft detained in Russia[9] Assets and Liabilities - Total assets increased to $32.36 billion as of March 31, 2025, compared to $32.28 billion at the end of 2024[27] - Total liabilities decreased to $24.50 billion as of March 31, 2025, down from $24.75 billion at the end of 2024[27] - The company ended the quarter with $29.2 billion in committed minimum future rental payments, including $18.9 billion from the existing fleet[9] - The owned fleet consisted of 487 aircraft, with a net book value of $28.6 billion, and a weighted average fleet age of 4.7 years[10] - The company has approximately $741 million in its aircraft sales pipeline, including $552 million in flight equipment held for sale[9] Cash Flow and Dividends - Net cash provided by operating activities for Q1 2025 was $388,346,000, compared to $371,330,000 in Q1 2024, an increase of 4.6%[40] - Net cash used in investing activities was $102,200,000 in Q1 2025, significantly improved from $630,324,000 in Q1 2024[40] - Cash dividends paid on Class A common stock increased to $24,503,000 in Q1 2025 from $23,316,000 in Q1 2024[40] - A quarterly cash dividend of $0.22 per share was approved by the board of directors, to be paid on July 9, 2025[9] Cash Position - Cash and cash equivalents as of March 31, 2025, were $456.6 million, a decrease from $472.6 million at the end of 2024[27] - The company reported a net decrease in cash of $15,491,000 for Q1 2025, contrasting with a net increase of $91,433,000 in Q1 2024[40] - Cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash at the end of Q1 2025 totaled $460,613,000, down from $555,925,000 at the end of Q1 2024[40] - The company incurred cash paid for income taxes of $38,000 in Q1 2025, a decrease from $3,033,000 in Q1 2024[40]

Core Viewpoint - Air Lease Corporation (AL) is set to report its first-quarter 2025 results on May 5, with expectations of revenue growth but a decline in earnings compared to the previous year [1][5]. Group 1: Earnings Performance - Air Lease's earnings have exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 3.31% [1]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter 2025 earnings has been revised downward by 3.1% to $1.24, indicating a 5.34% decline from the year-ago actuals [5][6]. Group 2: Revenue Expectations - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter 2025 revenues is $710.84 million, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 7.2% [3]. - The estimated revenue from rental of flight equipment is $664 million, indicating an 8.1% growth from the previous year [4]. Group 3: Influencing Factors - The anticipated revenue growth is attributed to the continuous expansion of the company's fleet, increased sales activity, and higher end-of-lease revenues [3]. - Rising operating expenses, including higher selling, general and administrative expenses, interest expenses, and depreciation of flight equipment costs, are expected to negatively impact bottom-line growth [6][7]. Group 4: Earnings Prediction Model - The current model does not predict an earnings beat for Air Lease, as it has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank of 3 [8].

Group 1 - The article discusses the author's initial investment in the aircraft leasing sector, specifically in Air Lease (NYSE: AL), highlighting its perceived value [1] - The author emphasizes a fundamental analysis approach, focusing on undervalued assets that present a favorable risk/reward profile [1] - The investment strategy includes the use of options, such as covered calls on overvalued stocks and writing puts on desired stocks at lower prices [1] Group 2 - The author has a beneficial long position in Air Lease (AL) and AerCap (AER) through various financial instruments [2] - The article is a personal opinion piece, with no external compensation received for its content [2] - There is a disclaimer regarding the lack of guarantee that past performance will predict future results, and no specific investment advice is provided [3]

Company Overview - Air Lease (AL) shares increased by 9.2% to $44.19 in the last trading session, following a higher-than-average trading volume, contrasting with a 7.5% loss over the past four weeks [1][2] Financial Performance - Air Lease is expected to report quarterly earnings of $1.24 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 5.3%. Revenue is anticipated to be $712.78 million, which is a 7.5% increase from the same quarter last year [3] - Total aircraft investments in the first quarter of 2025 amounted to $800 million, primarily occurring in the latter half of the March quarter [2] Aircraft Fleet and Commitments - As of March 31, 2025, Air Lease's fleet comprised 487 owned aircraft and 57 managed aircraft. The company has commitments to purchase 255 aircraft from Boeing and Airbus for delivery through 2029 [2] Market Position and Trends - The consensus EPS estimate for Air Lease has remained unchanged over the last 30 days, indicating that stock price movements may not sustain without trends in earnings estimate revisions [4] - Air Lease holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), similar to Ryder (R), which also has a Zacks Rank of 3 and reported an 11.1% increase in its stock price [4][5]