Company Overview - Alaska Air Group, Inc. is a significant player in the air transportation sector, providing passenger and cargo services across North America, and operates through its Mainline, Regional, and Horizon segments [1] Price Target and Analyst Outlook - The consensus price target for Alaska Air has increased slightly from $70 to $71.57 over the past quarter, indicating a modestly positive outlook from analysts [2][6] - The price target has remained stable over the past year, with last year's average at $70.58, suggesting that analysts' expectations for Alaska Air have not significantly changed [2] Revenue and Earnings Expectations - Despite a reduction in earnings per share (EPS) estimates, Alaska Air is expected to see a 3% increase in revenues, which may have contributed to the improved outlook [3][6] - Analyst Helane Becker from Cowen & Co. has set a higher price target of $85, reflecting a more optimistic view of the company [3] Upcoming Earnings Report - Alaska Air is approaching its fourth-quarter earnings report scheduled for January 22, with a history of mixed earnings surprises adding uncertainty to the upcoming report [4] - Analysts have adjusted their expectations, anticipating a decline in earnings, and according to Helane Becker, the company lacks the optimal combination of factors necessary for an earnings beat [4] Investment Considerations - Investors should consider recent news and developments, such as earnings reports and strategic partnerships, when evaluating Alaska Air Group, as these factors can provide valuable insights into the company's performance and stock valuation [5]

We came across a bearish thesis on Alaska Air Group, Inc. on r/wallstreetbets by NorthcoteTrevelyan. In this article, we will summarize the bears’ thesis on ALK. Alaska Air Group, Inc.'s share was trading at $49.66 as of January 15th. ALK’s trailing and forward P/E were 41.04 and 8.47 respectively according to Yahoo Finance. 35 Best Jobs for People Who Want to Travel g-stockstudio/Shutterstock.com Alaska Airlines ($ALK) is presented as a short thesis built around structural failures in its loyalty progr ...

Core Insights - Alaska Air Group (ALK) is set to report its fourth-quarter 2025 results on January 22, 2026, after market close, with earnings per share (EPS) estimates revised down by 64.5% to 11 cents, indicating an 88.7% decline year-over-year [2][10] - The revenue estimate for the same quarter is projected at $3.64 billion, reflecting a 3.1% year-over-year growth [2][10] Financial Performance - ALK has a history of earnings surprises, outperforming the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the last four quarters, with an average beat of 27.03% [3] - The third-quarter 2025 earnings were reported at $1.05 per share, missing the consensus estimate of $1.11 per share and showing a year-over-year decline of 53.3% [8] Revenue Drivers - The anticipated performance for the upcoming quarter is expected to be supported by increased total revenues, primarily driven by high passenger revenues as domestic air travel demand stabilizes [4] - Passenger revenues are projected to increase by 14.7% compared to the fourth quarter of 2024, bolstered by strong passenger volumes during the Thanksgiving holiday [5][10] - Cargo and other revenues are estimated at $146.6 million, indicating an 11.1% growth from the previous year [5] Challenges - Geopolitical uncertainties, tariff-related pressures, and persistent inflation are likely to have negatively impacted ALK's operations, causing volatility in passenger traffic and limiting revenue growth [6] Earnings Prediction Model - The current model does not predict an earnings beat for ALK, with an Earnings ESP of -6.04% and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [7]

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street anticipates a year-over-year decline in earnings for Alaska Air Group (ALK) despite higher revenues, with actual results being crucial for stock price movement [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - Alaska Air is expected to report quarterly earnings of $0.11 per share, reflecting a significant year-over-year decline of 88.7% [3]. - Revenue projections stand at $3.64 billion, indicating a 3.1% increase from the previous year [3]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 116.96% over the last 30 days, indicating a bearish sentiment among analysts [4]. - The Most Accurate Estimate for Alaska Air is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of -6.04% [12]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model suggests that a positive or negative reading indicates the likely deviation from consensus estimates, with positive readings being more predictive of earnings beats [9][10]. - Alaska Air's current Zacks Rank is 3 (Hold), complicating predictions of an earnings beat [12]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Alaska Air was expected to earn $1.11 per share but reported $1.05, resulting in a surprise of -5.41% [13]. - Over the past four quarters, Alaska Air has beaten consensus EPS estimates twice [14]. Industry Context - In the broader airline industry, United Airlines (UAL) is expected to report earnings of $2.98 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 8.6% [18]. - United Airlines' revenue is projected at $15.38 billion, up 4.7% from the previous year, but it also has a negative Earnings ESP of -1.75% [19][20].

Core Viewpoint - Alaska Air Group Inc. will hold a quarterly conference call to discuss its fourth quarter financial results for 2025 on January 23, 2026, at 11:30 a.m. EST/8:30 a.m. PST [1] Group 1: Financial Results and Outlook - The company will file its fourth-quarter results and outlook after market close on January 22, 2026 [2] Group 2: Company Overview - Alaska Airlines, Hawaiian Airlines, and Horizon Air are subsidiaries of Alaska Air Group, which also includes McGee Air Services as a subsidiary of Alaska Airlines [3] - The company operates hubs in Seattle, Honolulu, Portland, Anchorage, Los Angeles, San Diego, and San Francisco, serving over 140 destinations across North America, Latin America, Asia, and the Pacific [3] - Alaska Air Group is a member of the oneworld Alliance, with Hawaiian Airlines scheduled to join in 2026, allowing guests to earn and redeem miles for travel to over 1,000 worldwide destinations [3] - Alaska Air Group is traded on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) under the ticker symbol "ALK" [3]

Core Insights - Alaska Air Group Inc. is a major American airline known for its customer service and operational efficiency, primarily connecting the Pacific Northwest and Alaska to over one hundred destinations [1] Stock Performance - Susquehanna set a new price target of $70 for Alaska Air, indicating a potential increase of approximately 39.89% from its trading price of $50.04 at the time [2] - Currently, Alaska Air's stock is priced at $49.15, reflecting a slight increase of 1.17% or $0.57, with a market capitalization of about $5.7 billion [2][6] - Over the past year, the stock has fluctuated between a high of $78.08 and a low of $37.63, with a trading volume of 618,605 shares on the NYSE [5][6] Strategic Developments - Alaska Air announced a significant purchase of over 105 Boeing 737-10 jets, valued at $17 billion, marking a strategic move for expansion and modernization [3][6] - This purchase is part of a broader initiative to support domestic manufacturing and modernize the air traffic control system, reflecting strong confidence in Boeing's manufacturing capabilities [4] - The order includes the largest ever for Alaska Air, along with additional purchases of five "787-10" Dreamliners, reinforcing its position in the competitive airline industry [4][5]

Group 1 - Small-cap stocks, defined as companies with market capitalizations between approximately $250 million and $2 billion, are expected to outperform larger companies in 2026, with the S&P 600 and Russell 2000 indexes rising over 4% year-to-date [1][6] - Analysts believe that factors such as earnings rebound, accommodative monetary policy, and potential tariff reductions are aligning to support small-cap growth [2][3] - Bank of America forecasts that small-cap earnings outperformance will drive this sector's leadership, with a list of 30 "smid-cap" stocks showing an average upside of nearly 30% over the next 12 months [3][4] Group 2 - Approximately 90% of the stocks on the Bank of America list have seen positive consensus earnings-per-share revisions in the last three months, with median growth projections of 23% for the next year [4] - Economists at Bank of America anticipate three interest rate cuts by the end of the year, which would benefit small-cap companies that typically carry more debt [5] - Notable small-cap stocks identified include Alaska Air Group (ALK), Birkenstock (BIRK), Duolingo (DUOL), e.l.f. Beauty (ELF), Vita Coco (COCO), and Wayfair (W) [6]

Core Viewpoint - Alaska Air Group Inc. is experiencing a decline in stock performance, with a 5.98% decrease over the past month and a 27.54% decrease over the past year, prompting long-term shareholders to consider the company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Alaska Air Group Inc. is currently trading at $49.75, reflecting a 0.10% decrease in the current session [1]. - The stock has decreased by 5.98% over the past month and by 27.54% over the past year [1]. Group 2: P/E Ratio Analysis - The P/E ratio of Alaska Air Group is 41.16, which is significantly higher than the aggregate P/E ratio of 14.09 for the Passenger Airlines industry [5]. - A higher P/E ratio may suggest that Alaska Air Group is expected to perform better in the future compared to its industry peers, but it could also indicate that the stock is overvalued [5]. Group 3: Limitations of P/E Ratio - The P/E ratio is a useful metric for assessing market performance but has limitations; a lower P/E can indicate undervaluation or lack of expected future growth [8]. - It is important to consider the P/E ratio alongside other financial metrics and qualitative factors, as industry trends and business cycles can also influence stock prices [8].

Core Insights - Alaska Airlines has made its largest aircraft order in history, purchasing 105 new 737-10 aircraft and five new 787 aircraft from Boeing, with deliveries extending through 2035 [1][9] - The total Boeing orderbook for Alaska Airlines now stands at 245 aircraft, including 94 operational MAX aircraft [2] - The new 737-10s will be utilized for growth and replacing older narrowbody aircraft, while the 787s will enhance long-haul international service from Seattle [2][3] Aircraft Fleet Expansion - Alaska Airlines has exercised all previously held options for the 787, increasing its future widebody fleet to 17 aircraft, with five already in service [3] - The airline's fleet is projected to grow from 413 aircraft currently to over 475 by 2030 and more than 550 by 2035 [3] Strategic Goals - The new aircraft order aligns with Alaska Airlines' "Alaska Accelerate" strategic plan, aimed at expanding its global reach and improving operational efficiency [6] - The airline plans to introduce new daily services to London Heathrow and Rome by 2026, along with seasonal flights to Reykjavik and existing services to Tokyo Narita and Seoul Incheon [5] Relationship with Boeing - This order is expected to enhance Alaska Airlines' relationship with Boeing, especially following recent safety concerns regarding the 737 MAX 9 fleet [6][7]

Group 1 - Citi raised the price target on Alaska Air (ALK) to $69 from $61 while maintaining a Buy rating on the shares [1] - The update on targets in the airlines group is part of a Q4 earnings preview [1] - Citi's business travel barometer has bottomed, indicating a potential recovery in business travel [1] Group 2 - Despite the positive outlook, the firm expects supermajors to issue "conservative" outlooks for 2026 [1]