Group 1 - Apollo Commercial Finance (ARI) shares increased by 7.3% to $8.56, following a significant trading volume, contrasting with an 18.5% loss over the past four weeks [1] - The stock price surge is attributed to a broader market rally due to optimism from Trump's announcement of a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs for most trading partners, which is expected to ease cost pressures and improve profitability for mREITs [2] - The upcoming quarterly earnings for Apollo Commercial Finance are projected at $0.22 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 37.1%, with revenues expected to be $42.77 million, down 24.6% from the previous year [3] Group 2 - The consensus EPS estimate for Apollo Commercial Finance has remained unchanged over the last 30 days, indicating that stock price increases may not be sustainable without earnings estimate revisions [4] - Apollo Commercial Finance is categorized under the Zacks REIT and Equity Trust industry, with a current Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [4] - Blackstone Mortgage Trust (BXMT), another company in the same industry, saw a 6.6% increase in its stock price, closing at $18.31, but has returned -15.1% over the past month [4]

Group 1 - The average career length for a professional boxer is 16 years, highlighting the transient nature of success in the sport [1] - Famous boxers are typically recognized for their exceptional skills and winning records, indicating that performance is a key factor in achieving fame [1] Group 2 - The investment strategy promoted focuses on creating a portfolio that generates income without the need for selling assets, appealing to those seeking financial independence [2] - The Income Method claims to generate strong returns, targeting a yield of 9-10%, which positions it as an attractive option for retirement investing [2] - A month-long paid trial is offered for $49, with an additional 5% discount, suggesting a promotional effort to attract new investors [2]

Core Viewpoint - Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. (NYSE: ARI) has shown improvement in pay-out metrics for two consecutive quarters following a 29% dividend cut in the September quarter [1] Group 1: Company Performance - The mortgage real estate investment trust (REIT) reduced its dividend significantly, which has led to improved financial metrics in subsequent quarters [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported distributable earnings of $45 million or $0.32 per share for Q4 2024, and $190 million or $1.33 per share for the full year [12][13] - GAAP net loss available to stockholders was negative $132 million or negative $0.97 per share for the full year [13] - The dividend was well covered with 128% coverage for the quarter and 111% for the full year [13] - The loan portfolio ended the year with a carrying value of $7.1 billion and a weighted average unlevered yield of 8.1% [14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - ARI originated $702 million worth of new loans in Q4 2024, bringing total origination volume for the year to $1.9 billion [5][6] - The loan portfolio comprised 46 loans totaling $7.1 billion at year-end, with no additional asset-specific CECL allowances recorded in Q4 [8][17] - Elevated loan repayments totaled $830 million in Q4, outpacing new loan closings and add-on fundings [16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - More than half of ARI's originations in 2024 were in the UK, highlighting the company's strong market position in Europe [7] - The weighted average risk rating of the portfolio remained at 3.0%, unchanged from the previous quarter [17] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company expects increasing capital deployment and transaction activity in 2025 as participants reenter the market [5] - ARI is focused on proactive asset management and targeting resolutions on nonperforming loans to maximize value recovery [9][10] - The company is exploring opportunities in various sectors, including multifamily, senior housing, and data centers, with a focus on newly constructed assets [34][36] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that property valuations likely troughed in early 2024, with expectations for increased investment activity in 2025 [5] - The company anticipates that quarterly earnings in 2025 will be lower compared to Q4 2024, but still sufficient to cover dividends [14] - Management expressed optimism about recapturing capital tied up in underperforming assets and redeploying it into performing loans [26][28] Other Important Information - The company ended the quarter with over $380 million in total liquidity [20] - The total CECL allowance was relatively flat at $379 million, representing $2.74 per share of book value [18] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the expected cadence of realized losses from the specific reserve? - Management indicated optimism about clawing back capital tied to specific projects, with potential opportunities to redeploy capital in the latter half of the year [25][26] Question: Where are the interesting geographical opportunities? - Management noted increased activity across all sectors and geographies, particularly in newly constructed multifamily and senior housing [34][36] Question: Is the portfolio expected to grow to $7.5 to $8 billion? - Management confirmed that with a large pipeline of deals, the portfolio could grow significantly in the next six to twelve months [46][48] Question: Are borrowers looking to extend loans into a more favorable rate environment? - Management observed that borrowers have more visibility and are making informed decisions about their portfolios, particularly in the office sector [62][64] Question: What are the spreads on stabilized versus transitional assets? - Management indicated that while spreads have tightened, they can still generate mid-teen returns on both stable and transitional assets [70][72]

APOLLO Q4 & FY 2024 Financial Results Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. February 10, 2025 Unless otherwise noted, information as of December 31, 2024 It should not be assumed that investments made in the future will be profitable or will equal the performance of the investments shown in this document. Ext Forward Looking Statements and Other Disclosures This pesentation may contain forward-looking statements that are within the nearing of Section 27A of the Securities Act d 1933, as amerded, and 5 ...

Apollo Commerical Finance (ARI) reported $43.5 million in revenue for the quarter ended December 2024, representing a year-over-year decline of 25%. EPS of $0.32 for the same period compares to $0.36 a year ago.The reported revenue compares to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $43.63 million, representing a surprise of -0.28%. The company delivered an EPS surprise of +39.13%, with the consensus EPS estimate being $0.23.While investors scrutinize revenue and earnings changes year-over-year and how they compare ...

Apollo Commerical Finance (ARI) came out with quarterly earnings of $0.32 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.23 per share. This compares to earnings of $0.36 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of 39.13%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this real estate investment trust would post earnings of $0.25 per share when it actually produced earnings of $0.31, delivering a surprise of 24%.Over the last ...

Market and Economic Risks - The company operates in a competitive market for investment opportunities, which may limit its ability to acquire desirable target assets[16]. - Recent macroeconomic trends, including inflation and higher interest rates, may negatively impact the company's financial condition and results[23]. - A prolonged economic slowdown or recession could impair the company's assets and harm its operations, particularly if accompanied by declining real estate values[139]. - Recent macroeconomic trends, including inflation and higher interest rates, may adversely affect the company's financial condition and results of operations[140]. Regulatory and Compliance Risks - The company may face risks related to governmental intervention and regulatory reform in financial markets, potentially impacting its operations[17]. - To qualify as a REIT, the company must distribute at least 90% of its taxable income annually, which may limit its ability to pursue advantageous investments[171]. - Non-compliance with REIT requirements could lead to U.S. federal income tax liabilities, reducing cash available for distribution to stockholders[169]. - The company may fail to qualify as a REIT if certain loans do not qualify as real estate assets, which could lead to significant tax penalties[180]. - The IRS could challenge the treatment of mezzanine loans and preferred equity investments as debt, potentially jeopardizing REIT qualification[181]. - The company may be required to report taxable income that exceeds the economic income realized from certain investments, affecting cash flow[182]. - Taxable mortgage pool rules may increase taxes for the company and its stockholders, limiting future securitization methods[184]. - Adverse legislative or regulatory tax changes could negatively impact the market price of the company's common stock[190]. Financial and Investment Risks - Access to financing sources may be limited, affecting the company's ability to enhance returns and increasing leverage risk[18]. - The company may not achieve its weighted-average all-in yield on assets, leading to significantly lower future returns than anticipated[20]. - The lack of liquidity of the company's assets may adversely affect its ability to value and sell them[21]. - The company may face significant losses from B Notes and mezzanine loans due to their subordinated nature and the risks associated with borrower defaults[136]. - The company has not adopted any limit on investments in non-investment grade debt securities, which have a higher risk of default[137]. - The company may face risks of default on concentrated assets, which could reduce net income and stock value[30]. - Foreclosure processes for commercial mortgage loans can be lengthy and expensive, negatively affecting anticipated returns[33]. Management and Operational Risks - The company is dependent on its Manager and key personnel for success, with potential conflicts of interest affecting stockholder interests[24]. - The company relies entirely on the Manager for investment and advisory services, with no employees of its own, making it vulnerable to the Manager's performance and personnel stability[161]. - The Manager's liability is limited under the Management Agreement, which could lead to poor performance or losses for which the Manager would not be liable[152]. - The base management fee is based on stockholders' equity, which may not incentivize the Manager to maximize risk-adjusted returns, potentially leading to significant fees despite net losses[157][158]. - The Manager operates under broad investment guidelines, allowing for riskier transactions without prior board approval, which could adversely affect profitability and risk profile[159]. - The company may co-invest with third parties, which could expose it to risks related to decision-making authority and potential disputes[145]. - The company faces risks related to real estate investments, including changes in laws, environmental liabilities, and potential uninsured losses[142]. Management Agreement and Brand Risks - The Management Agreement with the Manager was automatically renewed for a successive one-year term in September 2024, with annual renewal thereafter unless terminated with 180 days prior notice[155]. - Termination of the Management Agreement without cause incurs a termination payment equal to three times the average annual base management fee earned by the Manager during the prior 24 months[154]. - The license agreement with Apollo allows the company to use the "Apollo" name as long as the Management Agreement is in effect, but termination could harm brand recognition[156]. - The Manager's broad discretion in investment decisions may lead to underperformance or losses, impacting the company's ability to pay dividends and affecting stock price[158]. Cash Management and Financial Stability - The company regularly maintains cash balances exceeding the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation insurance limit, which could pose a risk if the bank fails[144]. - The company may face tax liabilities that could reduce cash flow, even if it qualifies as a REIT[173]. - ACREFI TRS, ARM TRS, and ACREFI III TRS will be subject to U.S. federal, state, and local corporate taxes, impacting cash available for distribution[174].

NEW YORK, Feb. 10, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. (the “Company” or “ARI”) (NYSE:ARI) today reported results for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2024. Net income (loss) attributable to common stockholders per diluted share of common stock was $0.27 and ($0.97) for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2024, respectively. Distributable Earnings (a non-GAAP financial measure defined below) and Distributable Earnings prior to net realized loss on investments per ...

The market expects Apollo Commerical Finance (ARI) to deliver a year-over-year decline in earnings on lower revenues when it reports results for the quarter ended December 2024. This widely-known consensus outlook is important in assessing the company's earnings picture, but a powerful factor that might influence its near-term stock price is how the actual results compare to these estimates.The earnings report, which is expected to be released on February 10, 2025, might help the stock move higher if these ...