Core Insights - The technology sector is experiencing a significant selloff, particularly in software stocks, which have dropped 15% this week and 29% from their all-time highs in September [3][4] - Alphabet, the parent company of Google, has announced a capital expenditure forecast of $185 billion for the fiscal year, significantly higher than the market's expectation of around $120 billion, leading to a decline in its stock price [6][30] - Bitcoin has fallen below $70,000 for the first time since late 2024, reflecting broader negative momentum in the cryptocurrency market [2][46] Group 1: Market Trends - The NASDAQ is down 1.4%, marking its lowest point since November, with a general risk-off sentiment affecting various asset classes [2][5] - Software stocks are reported to be oversold, with 70% of them classified as such, indicating extreme market conditions [4] - The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average are both down 1.2%, showing a broad market decline [5] Group 2: Company Earnings and Forecasts - Qualcomm's stock has dropped nearly 8% following a lackluster revenue forecast of $11 billion, raising concerns about memory supply constraints affecting handset demand [7][74] - Qualcomm reported record revenue of $1.24 billion and nearly $740 million in royalties, reflecting a 27% year-on-year increase, with strong demand in the data center business [9][10] - Alphabet's cloud business grew by 48%, exceeding investor expectations, but concerns over high capital expenditures are causing investor anxiety [29][31] Group 3: Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin's price has decreased by approximately 45% from its October high, with the cryptocurrency market facing fundamental issues and a loss of faith among investors [6][47][50] - The decline in Bitcoin is attributed to broader market pressures, including the performance of other asset classes like gold and silver [46][50] - The cryptocurrency exchange Gemini plans to cut about 25% of its workforce, indicating distress within the industry [6] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The selloff in software loans has pushed nearly $18 billion into distressed territory, presenting potential investment opportunities for discerning investors [51][52] - Companies that can withstand or benefit from AI advancements are seen as more resilient, while those lagging in AI adoption may face revenue stress [54][56] - The market is witnessing a shift in focus towards companies with strong fundamentals and growth potential in the AI space [52][56]

分析师上调评级——New Street Research将ARM评级上调至"买入"，增强了分析师的看涨关注，有望支 撑短期买盘压力。 来源：环球市场播报 Arm控股公司（纳斯达克代码：ARM）股价今日走高，此前公布的第三季度业绩喜忧参半但整体向 好，且其人工智能驱动的业绩展望乐观，不过投资者仍在权衡其许可收入未达预期及行业面临的不利因 素。以下是可能影响该股走势的关键消息。 积极情绪： 第三季度业绩超预期——ARM公布的每股收益为0.43美元，营收达12.4亿美元，均超过市场预期，并显 示出强劲的同比增长，提振了市场情绪。 来源：Arm Holdings股票今日为何上涨 第四季度业绩指引乐观——公司预计第四季度营收和每股收益将高于市场预期，理由是AI数据中心对 Arm架构的持续需求，这一前瞻性展望强化了对AI相关收入的乐观预期。 来源：Arm预计季度营收超预期 许可收入略低于预期——许可收入微幅不及预期，导致股价在盘后交易中下跌；许可是高利润率且对业 绩敏感的业务线，投资者密切关注其利润可持续性。 来源：许可收入不及预期致股价暴跌 智能手机市场面临阻力——内存短缺和原始设备制造商减产可能制约明年手机出货量及智 ...

"从行业层面看，内存供应紧张和价格上涨，或将直接决定整个手机市场的整体规模上限。" 全球高带宽内存（HBM）短缺正从数据中心迅速向消费电子领域蔓延，智能手机行业已成为首要承压 环节。这场由人工智能基础设施需求激增引发的"内存危机"，正在对全球电子产品供应链形成结构性冲 击。 全球最大智能手机芯片生产商高通与英国半导体设计企业Arm Holdings相继发出预警，指出HBM的持 续短缺将直接限制智能手机产量。作为全球最大的智能手机处理器供应商，高通首席执行官Cristiano Amon在财报电话会上表示： 据Amon透露，部分客户已表示将在今年削减手机生产计划。据报道，多家主流智能手机制造商正着手 下调其2026年出货目标，其中一家的调整幅度据称高达20%。 这场短缺被普遍视为中长期结构性挑战。英特尔首席执行官陈立武直言："据我所知，短缺局面不会缓 解。"市场研究机构TrendForce进一步预测，今年生产的高端内存芯片中预计将有70%被数据中心吸纳， 消费电子领域的分配份额将持续受到挤压。 内存短缺的影响正在整个电子产品供应链持续传导与深化。芯片制造商联发科本周在分析师电话会议上 坦言，供应状况"正在动态演变 ...

Core Viewpoint - Chip stocks Qualcomm Inc and Arm Holdings PLC are experiencing divergent market reactions, with Qualcomm facing a significant decline due to a disappointing outlook despite beating earnings, while Arm is recovering from earlier losses after reporting better-than-expected earnings and revenue, despite missing licensing sales estimates. Both companies are affected by rising memory-chip prices [1]. Qualcomm (QCOM) - Qualcomm's stock is down 9.4%, trading at $134.77, following downgrades to "neutral" from Susquehanna and BofA Global Research [2]. - The stock has experienced at least 10 price-target cuts and is on track for its worst trading day since April, breaking below the $150 support level, with a year-over-year deficit of 21.9% [2]. - Options volume for Qualcomm is running at four times the intraday average, with the most active contract being the February 160 call [4]. Arm Holdings (ARM) - Arm's stock is up 1.1%, trading at $106.07, despite facing at least 11 price-target cuts, including a reduction from HSBC to $90 from $105 [3]. - The stock rebounded from the $100 level after reaching its lowest point since April, but has lost over 38% in the past 12 months [3]. - Options volume for Arm is three times the typical amount, with the most active contract being the weekly 2/6 110-strike call [4].

ARM - ARM's shares are lower, but not as much as pre-market indications suggested, with adjusted EPS at 43 cents, beating the expected 41 cents [2] - Revenue was in line with expectations at approximately $1.24 billion, matching consensus [2] - Despite solid earnings, concerns arise from missed expectations in licensing revenue, which is crucial for future growth, particularly due to smartphone exposure [3][4] Estee Lauder - Estee Lauder's shares are under significant pressure, down 15%, despite better-than-expected adjusted EPS of 89 cents compared to the expected 83 cents [5][6] - Revenue was $4.229 billion, slightly above the expected $4.219 billion, but non-adjusted profit fell below expectations due to a major restructuring program [6][7] - Tariff pressures are expected to reduce profits by about $100 million, leading to anticipated contraction in operating margins [8] Tapestry - Tapestry, the parent company of Coach and Kate Spade, reported strong results with shares rallying 9% [10] - Adjusted earnings were $2.69 per share, with revenue at $2.5 billion, both better than expected [11] - Coach sales surged by 25%, driven by strong demand, while Kate Spade continues to struggle in recovery [12][13]

You know, Carl, I look at these stocks. Everything's a battleground. It just doesn't matter.Everything's battle. And one of the greatest battlegrounds this very morning is ARM. And I say that because ARM stock was down very 10%.Then it rallies 10%. I got we got to talk to someone from ARM. And that's what's so great.David, we have Renee Hos. Great ARM CEO. And he's going to clear everything up.Renee, welcome back to Squawk on the Street. >> Morning, Jim. >> All right.So Renee, I thought it was a great quart ...

You know, Carl, I look at these stocks. Everything's a battleground. It just doesn't matter.Everything's battle. And one of the greatest battlegrounds this very morning is ARM. And I say that because ARM stock was down very 10%.Then it rallies 10%. I got we got to talk to someone from ARM. And that's what's so great.David, we have Renee Hos. Great ARM CEO. And he's going to clear everything up.Renee, welcome back to Squawk on the Street. >> Morning, Jim. >> All right.So Renee, I thought it was a great quart ...

美国1月挑战者企业裁员人数升至10.8万，创2009年以来同期最高；上周初请失业金人数亦超预期上 升。美股开盘，三大指数集体下跌，纳指跌1.31%，标普500指数跌0.9%，道指跌0.6%。 Alphabet跌超7%，今年资本支出指引接近翻倍至1750亿-1850亿美元，远超预期。 高通跌9.3%，第二财季营收及调整后每股收益指引逊于预期，手机芯片业务受制于供应链瓶颈。 Arm跌3.2%，第三财季营收同比增长26%至12.4亿美元，本季营收指引不及最乐观预期。 百度涨2.5%，预计2026年首次派发股息，计划回购至多50亿美元的股票。 (格隆汇) ...

Both stocks were falling as phone manufacturers scale back production plans. ...

Core Insights - ARM's data center revenue is growing significantly faster than other business segments, currently accounting for over 15% and approaching 20% of total revenue, with expectations to surpass smartphone business in the next 2-3 years [1][9] - The company has raised its FY26 revenue guidance from an initial "at least 20%" to a midpoint of 22%, exceeding previous expectations, while maintaining a reasonable growth rate of 20% for FY27 [1][15] - ARM's R&D spending is increasing at a rate higher than revenue growth, with expectations for a slowdown in R&D spending growth after Q1 of next year [1][17] Data Center Business - The shift in data centers is moving from pure "training" to "inference," with a growing need for CPUs due to their efficiency and low latency, which is beneficial for ARM [3] - The demand for computing power is immense, and ARM's role in providing this power is crucial, especially as AI applications evolve [2][18] Market Dynamics - ARM acknowledges the recent volatility in the software industry as a normal occurrence during significant technological changes, emphasizing that AI will not replace chips but rather coexist with them [2][18] - Despite potential risks from supply chain constraints in the smartphone market, ARM expects to prioritize high-end markets, which will mitigate the impact on royalty revenues [4][5] Royalty Revenue Insights - ARM's royalty revenue is expected to be resilient, with a projected decline in smartphone shipments potentially impacting royalty by only 2-4%, and overall group revenue by 1-2% [4][11] - The company anticipates that the growth in cloud AI and infrastructure will offset any declines in mobile and memory sectors, maintaining confidence in the royalty income structure [5] Strategic Partnerships and Contributions - SoftBank's contribution to ARM's revenue has increased from $178 million to approximately $200 million, expected to stabilize at this level moving forward [8] - ARM's Compute Subsystems (CSS) are gaining traction, with a significant increase in royalty contributions, projected to rise from around 15% to over 50% in the next 2-3 years [14] Future Outlook - ARM is exploring new products and services that may impact financial performance in FY28, although specific figures are not yet available [15] - The company is focused on addressing the challenges of power efficiency in AI applications, positioning itself well in the evolving market landscape [19]