Core Viewpoint - Boeing has become a contentious topic among investors, with analysts holding starkly different views on the stock's future performance, as evidenced by contrasting ratings and price targets from Wells Fargo and Citi [1] Bearish Perspective - The Wells Fargo analyst argues that Boeing is far from achieving its 2025 investor day outlook of $10 billion in free cash flow (FCF), with a consensus forecast predicting an outflow of $4.9 billion in 2025, followed by a mere $5.7 billion in FCF generation [2] - The difference between total FCF and FCF per share is significant; with a share count increase to approximately 739.3 million, the projected FCF per share would only be $7.7 billion in 2026, far below the earlier estimate of $16.66 per share [3][4] - Production issues, including quality control and supply chain disruptions, have led to a reduced production target of 38 planes per month for the 737 MAX by 2025, down from the previously expected 50 planes [5] - The defense segment, Boeing Defense, Space & Security (BDS), is also underperforming, with expectations of breakeven cash flow pushed to 2026 or 2027 due to ongoing charges and delays [6] - The analyst from Wells Fargo believes Boeing will fall short of the Wall Street consensus for FCF of about $9 billion in 2027 by at least $1 billion, justifying a sell recommendation [7] Bullish Perspective - Conversely, a Citi analyst highlights Boeing's long-term potential, suggesting that much of the negative news is already reflected in the stock price, and even modest FCF generation could lead to significant share appreciation [8] - The commercial aerospace market outlook remains positive, with Boeing and Airbus maintaining multiyear backlogs and airlines showing consistent demand for new aircraft [9] - A hypothetical scenario where Boeing achieves $7 billion in FCF in 2027 would result in a market cap trading at 18 times FCF, which is favorable for a company expected to grow as production ramps up [10] Investment Strategy - The current market conditions suggest a cautious approach, with the bearish perspective potentially being overly focused on past performance, while the bullish view relies on long-term assumptions that may be difficult to trust given Boeing's recent operational challenges [11][12] - A prudent strategy may involve monitoring Boeing's progress on key objectives, such as increasing 737 MAX deliveries and returning the BDS segment to profitability [13]

Core Viewpoint - Boeing has secured a significant contract from the Department of Defense, leading to a 3.1% increase in its stock, while Lockheed Martin's stock fell by 5.8% due to losing the contract [1] Boeing - Boeing has faced numerous challenges over the past five years, including the suspension of its dividend in March 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic and issues with the Boeing 737 Max, including a recent investigation revealing quality control problems [3][5] - The company anticipates a ramp-up in new aircraft versions and expects to reduce losses in its Defense, Space & Security segment, guiding for positive free cash flow (FCF) in the second half of 2025 [4] - Boeing's backlog has grown significantly, reaching $521 billion at the end of 2024, with 5,500 commercial airplanes ordered, indicating strong demand despite execution challenges [5] - Analysts project further losses in 2025, but expect a turnaround with earnings per share (EPS) of $4.23 starting in 2026, making the stock potentially attractive if the company can manage its backlog effectively [6] Lockheed Martin - Lockheed Martin is characterized by its profitability and a consistent dividend increase for 22 consecutive years, with a valuation of less than 20 times trailing earnings and free cash flow [7] - The company has experienced weak growth recently, highlighted by a disappointing quarter and guidance, leading to a 9.5% decline in stock year-to-date [8][9] - Lockheed's adjusted EPS guidance for 2024 is between $27 and $27.30, with a projected EPS of $29.75 in 2026, indicating modest growth of 6.3% compared to 2024 [9] - Unlike Boeing, Lockheed has a strong track record of managing its backlog and delivering profitable programs, such as the F-35 fighter jet [10] Investment Considerations - The choice between Boeing and Lockheed Martin depends on investment objectives and risk tolerance; Boeing presents higher risk with potential for greater rewards, while Lockheed offers stability and consistent dividends [11][12] - Boeing's balance sheet is weaker than Lockheed's, with a financial debt-to-equity ratio of 0.4 and a debt-to-capital ratio over 100%, suggesting a need for financial improvement before reinstating dividends [13]

Core Points - A federal judge has set a trial date for June 23 in the Justice Department's criminal fraud case against Boeing related to alleged misrepresentations about the 737 MAX [1] - Boeing previously agreed to plead guilty to a criminal fraud conspiracy charge and pay a fine of up to $487.2 million following two fatal crashes [2][5] - Boeing is reportedly seeking to withdraw the existing plea deal, while the Justice Department and Boeing are engaged in discussions for a resolution [3] Legal Proceedings - The plea deal included a commitment from Boeing to spend $455 million on safety and compliance improvements over three years, under court supervision [4] - Relatives of the victims from the crashes have criticized the plea agreement as insufficient and are urging for a full prosecution instead [6] - The Justice Department found Boeing had violated a previous agreement that protected it from prosecution, leading to the current charges [8] Industry Context - The ongoing legal issues highlight significant safety and quality concerns within Boeing, exacerbated by a recent incident involving an Alaska Airlines jet [8][11] - Officials have called for stricter regulatory measures against Boeing and the aviation industry as a whole [10]

Core Insights - The Trump administration awarded Boeing the contract to build the next-generation F-47 fighter jets, surprising industry observers and beating out Lockheed Martin [1][2][3] - The contract could exceed $50 billion, providing a critical opportunity for Boeing to stabilize after financial setbacks and safety scandals [3][12] - Boeing will benefit from a "cost-plus" agreement, which covers development costs and guarantees profit, contrasting with its recent fixed-price deals that resulted in losses [4] Company Performance - Boeing has not successfully introduced a new commercial or military aircraft in over a decade, raising skepticism about its capabilities [1][5] - The company has limited experience with stealth technology, which is essential for the F-47, and has faced challenges in other defense projects [5][6] - Boeing's recent military aircraft, such as the T-7 trainer, were co-developed with Saab, indicating a lack of independent production experience [6] Industry Context - The F-47 is designed to operate alongside semi-autonomous drones and features advanced stealth technology, crucial for countering China's military expansion [4] - Boeing's selection over Lockheed Martin has left Wall Street analysts surprised and Lockheed officials disappointed [2][11] - The decision reflects a significant shift in the competitive landscape of military aircraft production, with Boeing needing to recruit skilled engineers to meet technological demands [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in the market has highlighted Boeing Co. as a potential investment opportunity, with positive sentiment surrounding its stock performance amidst broader market uncertainty [1][2]. Company Analysis - Boeing's stock has shown a breakout since mid-March 2025, indicating strong performance compared to the S&P 500 [2]. - Analysts have set a 12-month price forecast for Boeing at $195.68, suggesting an 8.17% upside from the current price of $180.90, with a high forecast of $250.00 and a low of $113.00 [3]. - Citigroup analysts have reiterated their Buy ratings for Boeing, increasing the valuation to $210 per share from a previous $207 [3]. - The stock is currently trading at 90% of its 52-week high, indicating bullish price momentum and justifying the analysts' double-digit upside predictions [5]. Earnings Outlook - Wall Street analysts expect Boeing to report positive earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, a significant improvement from current net losses, which is a key driver for stock price action and valuations [6]. - The anticipated rise in demand for Boeing's products, particularly from recent orders from China, could further support these EPS forecasts [11]. Market Sentiment - Short interest in Boeing has decreased by 10.9% over the past month, indicating a shift in sentiment as short sellers reconsider their positions [7]. - Institutional capital has increasingly flowed into Boeing, with $8.8 billion invested over the past quarter, reflecting a broader market trend to hedge against S&P 500 volatility [13]. Sector Dynamics - The manufacturing sector, particularly industrial stocks, is gaining investor interest, which could indirectly benefit Boeing as it aligns with rising demand for basic materials [2][10]. - Institutional investments in the Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund have reached $955 million over the past quarter, suggesting a positive outlook for basic materials that could support Boeing's growth [12].

Group 1 - Boeing Co (NYSE:BA) has been awarded a contract to build the U.S. Air Force's latest fighter jet, the F-47, which is impacting its competitors negatively, particularly Lockheed Martin (LMT) [1] - Boeing's shares increased by 1.9% to $181.47, marking the highest level in over a month, and have risen 16.4% over the last six months [2] - Northrop Grumman Corp (NYSE:NOC) shares are trading at $491.38, up 0.1%, with a notable increase of 14.4% over the last nine months, although it faces resistance around the $510 level [3] Group 2 - General Dynamics Corp (NYSE:GD) shares are up 0.2% to $263.91, having trimmed a 14.4% deficit over six months, and successfully retested the $260 support level [4] - The stock of General Dynamics has shown resilience after bouncing back from a 52-week low of $239.87 [4]

If you want full access to all our reports, data and investing ideas, join The Aerospace Forum , the #1 aerospace, defense and airline investment research service on Seeking Alpha, with access to evoX Data Analytics, our in-house developed data analytics platform.Boeing ( BA ) has won the bid for US the Air Force NGAD. The other contestant on the program was Lockheed Martin ( LMT ). For Boeing, this is an extremely meaningful win as it's the first time the company hasDhierin runs the investing group The Aer ...

As if you needed one, here's another reason to avoid Boeing stock in 2025.For investors who bought Boeing (BA 2.37%) stock on the theory that it's a leading space company, things are getting down to the wire.Late last year, I described how Boeing was likely to benefit as United Launch Alliance (ULA), its 50-50 joint venture with Lockheed Martin (LMT -1.69%), embarked upon an ambitious plan to launch its new Vulcan Centaur rocket 20 times this year, collecting approximately $100 million per launch. As the ne ...

Core Viewpoint - Boeing Co has secured a significant US Air Force contract for the Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program, which is expected to be worth tens of billions of dollars over its multi-decade lifespan [1][2][3] Group 1: Contract Details - The contract is for the design, construction, and delivery of the sixth generation fighter jet, known as the F-47, and is valued at potentially $20 billion over the next five years [2] - This award marks a pivotal moment for Boeing, as it has not held the prime contractor role for a US fighter jet in decades [3] Group 2: Market Impact - Analyst Noah Poponak has maintained a Buy rating for Boeing with a price target of $213, reflecting confidence in the company's future prospects following the contract win [1][2] - Boeing's shares increased by 2.97% to $183.40 at the time of publication, indicating positive market sentiment [4] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The loss of the contract for Lockheed Martin raises questions about its future offerings following the F-35, which currently constitutes approximately 25% of its earnings [3]

The Boeing Company (BA) recently clinched a contract to design, build and deliver its next-generation fighter aircraft under the Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program. The award has been provided by the United States Air Force. Following the news on Friday, shares of the company surged 3.06%.This new contract win will assist Boeing to further strengthen its position in the U.S. Defense market and will adversely impact the prospects of its peer Lockheed Martin (LMT) . Lockheed shares lost nearly 5.8% ...