CAPITAL MARKETS DAY NYC JANUARY 28, 2026 CAUTIONARY STATEMENT REGARDING FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS Certain statements in this presentation (the "Presentation") of Birkenstock Holding plc (together with all of its subsidiaries, the "Company," "Birkenstock," "we," "our," "ours," or "us") may constitute "forward-looking" statements and information within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, and the safe harbor prov ...

Birkenstock aims to generate double-digit growth in revenue and earnings-per-share through 2028 https://t.co/997Jvnk19O ...

Core Insights - Birkenstock's sales in the U.S. account for just over half of its total sales, but this percentage is declining as other regions experience growth [1] Group 1 - The company is facing challenges as it appears to hit rock bottom repeatedly, indicating ongoing struggles in the market [1]

Core Thesis - Birkenstock Holding plc is experiencing a stock pullback due to weaker than expected forward guidance, despite maintaining brand demand [2] Financial Performance - For fiscal year 2025, Birkenstock generated approximately €2.1 billion in revenue, with a market capitalization near €7 billion and earnings per share of €1.87 [3] - Profitability metrics include a return on equity (ROE) near 13%, return on invested capital (ROIC) close to 10%, and free cash flow consistently exceeding net income [4] Growth Expectations - Management's long-term revenue growth target was reduced from 20% to 15%-18%, and then to 13%-15% for fiscal year 2026, leading to investor disappointment [3] - Consensus growth expectations for the company range from high single digits to mid-teens, aligning with management's tempered outlook [5] Valuation - A conservative valuation assuming 9% EPS growth and a 9% discount rate yields a fair value near $48.62 per share, which is modestly above current trading levels [6] - The stock does not appear expensive, but governance concerns and guidance resets suggest caution [6] Governance and Market Dynamics - The company has an unusual governance dynamic, with management focused on its controlling shareholder, L Catterton, which owns 62% of the business [2] - The stock price has depreciated approximately 17.58% since previous bullish coverage due to lower guidance expectations [7]

Group 1: Abercrombie and Fitch (ANF) Performance - Abercrombie and Fitch achieved record earnings-per-share in 2025, but shares are falling due to high expectations and profit-taking by investors [1] - Management's guidance for sales growth is in the middle of the previous range (at least 6%), which is seen as lukewarm by investors expecting stronger numbers [1][2] - The company incurred a $90 million tariff expense in 2025, which is expected to continue into 2026, putting pressure on margins [2] Group 2: Retail Market Dynamics - The retail market is experiencing a bifurcation, with high-end brands like ANF facing challenges while discount retailers are gaining strength [6][9] - Despite concerns, Abercrombie remains one of the strongest retail brands, with revenue expected to continue growing into 2027 according to Zacks Consensus Estimates [4] - The overall retail picture shows record-breaking global holiday sales of $1.29 trillion, but consumer confidence is weak, leading to a shift towards discount retailers [9] Group 3: Birkenstock Performance - Birkenstock shares initially dropped after earnings but rebounded as Q4 adjusted EPS of $0.14 beat estimates, and sales of $407.67 million exceeded expectations [8] - The company is expected to face modest headwinds to adjusted EBITDA margins due to planned ramp-up costs and initial under-absorption [8]

Group 1: Birkenstock Holding plc - For the fiscal first quarter 2026, Birkenstock expects revenue of 402 million euros, reflecting an 11.1% year-over-year growth on a reported basis and a 17.8% increase in constant currency [1] - Full-year results showed profits rose 81.8% to 348.3 million euros, with revenue increasing by 16.2% to nearly 2.1 billion euros [2] - CEO Oliver Reichert noted that strong wholesale growth is straining the supply chain due to capacity constraints [2] - Jefferies analyst Randal Konik described the earnings preannouncement as "solid," with revenue in line with expectations and luxury margins remaining intact [2] - William Blair analyst Sharon Zackfia highlighted Birkenstock's strong brand health, with over 90% full-price sell-through [2] Group 2: Genesco Inc. - Genesco reported a 9% increase in comparable sales for the fourth quarter ended Dec. 27, 2025, with same-store sales rising by 10% [2] - The Journeys Group saw a 12% increase in comparable sales, while the Schuh Group rose by 6% and Johnston & Murphy Group increased by 1% [2] - Genesco's president and CEO Mimi Vaughn expressed satisfaction with holiday performance, attributing strong conversion and full-price selling to effective execution during peak demand periods [3]

Group 1 - TeamViewer SE (TMVWF) experienced a relief rally as proforma topline guidance was released ahead of a fuller report expected on February 10th [2] - The Valkyrie Trading Society, a team of analysts, focuses on high conviction and obscure developed market ideas that are downside limited and likely to generate non-correlated and outsized returns [2] - The Value Lab offers members a portfolio with real-time updates, 24/7 chat support, regular global market news reports, feedback on member stock ideas, new trades monthly, quarterly earnings write-ups, and daily macro opinions [2] Group 2 - The company has a beneficial long position in TeamViewer shares through German exchanges, indicating confidence in the stock's performance [3]

Group 1 - Birkenstock reported first-quarter preliminary revenue below Wall Street expectations [1] - Consumer spending on non-essential items has become more cautious due to rising economic uncertainty [1]

Core Insights - Birkenstock Holding plc expects fiscal first quarter 2026 revenue of €402 million, reflecting an 11.1% year-over-year growth on a reported basis and 17.8% in constant currency, primarily influenced by the depreciation of the US Dollar against the Euro [1] Financial Performance - The company will report its full fiscal first quarter financial results on February 12, 2026, before the US market opens, followed by a conference call and live webcast at 8:00 a.m. Eastern Time [2] Company Overview - Birkenstock Holding plc is the parent company of Birkenstock Group B.V. & Co. KG, committed to promoting proper foot health and rooted in a shoemaking tradition dating back to 1774, offering a range of products from footwear to natural cosmetics [3]

Group 1 - Deutsche Bank has resumed coverage of key stocks in the global brand, discount retail, and professional beauty sectors, expressing optimism as it enters 2026, anticipating a "risk-on" macro environment despite potential fluctuations [1] - Analyst Christina Katay noted that the revenue trend in the first half of the year will remain robust due to favorable weather conditions and increased tax refunds, which are seen as drivers for same-store sales growth [1] - The bank estimates that the "Great Beauty Act" will increase tax refunds by approximately $55 billion, with total tax refunds in 2024 projected at $461 billion [1] Group 2 - The expected tax refunds will primarily benefit low- to middle-income consumers facing cost-of-living challenges, while affluent households are anticipated to benefit from increased state and local tax (SALT) deductions [2] - Deutsche Bank has assigned a "Buy" rating to stocks including Amphenol (AS.US), Birkenstock (BIRK.US), Ulta Beauty (ULTA.US), Ralph Lauren (RL.US), Ross Stores (ROST.US), and TJX Companies (TJX.US) [2] - The bank holds a more conservative view on stocks such as Bath & Body Works (BBWI.US), Burlington Stores (BURL.US), Nike (NKE.US), and Lululemon (LULU.US), assigning them a "Hold" rating [2]