Summary of Global Hotels & Leisure Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the impact of current dollar weakness on the Global Hotels & Leisure industry, particularly focusing on companies with significant international revenue exposure and those with costs denominated in different currencies. Key Points Winners from Dollar Weakness 1. **Booking Holdings (BKNG)**: - Beneficiary of dollar weakness with nearly 80% of room nights outside the US, particularly benefiting from strong Euro against the USD [2][12] - Earnings estimates increased by 2-3% due to favorable FX impact [1] 2. **Airbnb (ABNB)**: - 55% of revenues earned outside the US, with 33% exposure to Europe and 11% each to APAC and LATAM, leading to a positive earnings tailwind from USD weakness [3][12] - Earnings estimates raised by 2-3% [1] 3. **Carnival Corporation (CCL)**: - 45% of revenues generated outside the US, primarily in Europe, benefiting from favorable currency translation [3][12] - Earnings estimates increased by 2-3% [1] 4. **Other Beneficiaries**: - Hilton, Marriott, IHG, and Royal Caribbean (RCL) will also see benefits, but to a lesser extent due to limited non-USD exposure [3] Losers from Dollar Weakness 1. **Accor**: - Despite only 3% of room exposure in the US, approximately 35% of EBITDA is generated in USD while reporting in EUR, leading to a negative impact from dollar weakness [4][14] - Earnings estimates trimmed by ~3% [1] 2. **Hyatt**: - Managed resorts in the Mexican Caribbean earn revenues in USD but have costs in Mexican Pesos, leading to margin compression due to dollar weakness [5][14] - Incentive management fees are sensitive to USD/MXN exchange rates, resulting in a 3-4% headwind to earnings for 2026-2027 [5][15] Financial Implications - The overall impact of dollar weakness is expected to create a material earnings tailwind for US-denominated stocks with high non-US revenue exposure, while negatively affecting those with significant USD costs and EUR-denominated earnings [1][11] - The dollar is down MSD-high teens year-over-year against major currencies, which will have a significant impact on the earnings of companies in the travel sector [9] Investment Ratings - Despite the FX impacts, the investment ratings remain unchanged with Outperform ratings for Marriott, Hyatt, Accor, Melia, Royal Caribbean, and Airbnb [8] Additional Insights - The analysis highlights the importance of currency exposure in the hospitality sector, emphasizing that companies with significant international operations are better positioned to benefit from a weaker dollar [11][20] - The sensitivity of earnings to currency fluctuations is a critical factor for investors to consider when evaluating these companies [14][15] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call regarding the impact of dollar weakness on the Global Hotels & Leisure industry, identifying both winners and losers, and providing a financial outlook for the affected companies.

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The focus is on the Online Travel Agency (OTA) industry in China, particularly in relation to Booking's strategies and market positioning amid antitrust investigations [1] Core Insights and Arguments - The market has shown divergence regarding domestic OTAs due to the investigation initiated on January 14, which has raised concerns about regulatory impacts [1] - Despite the antitrust scrutiny, Booking has managed to increase its market share and maintain stable commission rates, indicating a robust business model [1] - Booking is shifting from an agency model to a merchant model, allowing it to control cash flow and pricing by requiring prepayments, thus avoiding direct legal challenges related to price parity clauses [1] Additional Important Content - Booking utilizes significant Google advertising investments to secure public traffic and employs membership programs like Genius and Preferred Partner to transfer costs to hotels, creating a blurred comparison system [2] - The strategy includes cross-selling "flight + hotel" packages, which conceals room rates within bundled pricing [2] - Domestic OTAs still hold a leading advantage in mobile platforms and the Asia-Pacific supply chain [2] - The report serves as a comprehensive record of Booking's decade-long antitrust defense and is a valuable reference for understanding the current state of domestic OTAs [2] - Risk factors include potential overreach in EU antitrust regulations, rising costs of traffic acquisition, and excessive reliance on Google advertising [2]

Core Viewpoint - Booking Holdings (BKNG) is viewed as a strong long-term investment opportunity, especially following a recent decline attributed to concerns over travel and competition from AI [1]. Group 1: Company Overview - Booking Holdings has demonstrated solid compounding growth over time, indicating its resilience and potential for future performance [1]. Group 2: Market Context - The recent pullback in Booking Holdings' stock price is linked to fears surrounding the travel industry and the impact of AI competition, which may present a buying opportunity for investors [1].

Core Viewpoint - Booking Holdings (BKNG) is viewed as a strong long-term investment opportunity, particularly following a recent decline attributed to concerns over travel and competition from AI [1]. Group 1: Company Overview - Booking Holdings has demonstrated solid compounding growth over time, indicating its resilience and potential for future performance [1]. Group 2: Investment Perspective - The recent pullback in Booking Holdings' stock price is seen as a buying opportunity, suggesting that current market fears may be overblown [1].

Core Insights - Bleisure travel is becoming a significant trend among business travelers in the Asia-Pacific region, with 76% of surveyed individuals planning to combine business trips with personal leisure [1][3][5] - The Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam show particularly high interest in bleisure travel, with over 85% of business travelers in these countries eager to extend their stays for leisure [5][6] - Even in traditionally conservative business travel cultures, such as Japan and Indonesia, a majority of travelers are embracing the bleisure trend, with 58% of Japanese and 76% of South Korean business travelers planning to add personal time to their trips [2][6] Market Trends - The global bleisure travel market is projected to reach $1.71 trillion by 2032, indicating a significant shift in how professionals approach corporate travel [6] - Business travel remains a priority for 2026, with Indonesia leading at 27%, followed by the Philippines at 20% and Vietnam at 19% [4] Company Insights - Agoda, a digital travel platform, is focused on facilitating the blending of business and leisure travel, offering over 6 million holiday properties and various travel services [7] - The company aims to provide seamless planning for both business and leisure components of travel, enhancing the overall travel experience for professionals [7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is positive [1] Core Insights - The European Union's regulatory efforts have intensified, designating Booking as a "gatekeeper" under the Digital Markets Act (DMA), which prohibits the use of price parity clauses that restrict hotel pricing [2] - Despite antitrust measures aimed at promoting competition, Booking's market share in Europe has increased from approximately 60% in 2013 to over 71% in 2023, indicating a concentration of market power [3] - Booking is strategically shifting its business model from an agency model to a merchant model, allowing it to control pricing and cash flow while avoiding direct legal interference with hotel pricing [4] Summary by Sections Regulatory Environment - The EU's regulatory framework has evolved, with Booking being classified as a "gatekeeper" under the DMA, which mandates compliance with new rules prohibiting price parity clauses [12][18] - The historical context of antitrust actions against Booking highlights a growing trend of regulatory scrutiny across various jurisdictions [25][28] Market Competition - The competitive landscape remains concentrated, with Booking leveraging its dual-sided network effects to maintain its leading position, while competitors like Expedia and Airbnb are exploring differentiated strategies [5][6] - The cancellation of price parity clauses has not led to significant price competition among OTAs, as Booking continues to utilize algorithms and monitoring to maintain pricing control [3][56] Business Model Transformation - Booking's transition to a merchant model allows it to pre-collect payments and manage pricing, effectively circumventing legal restrictions on hotel pricing [4] - The company is investing heavily in Google advertising and membership programs to enhance its market presence and obscure pricing comparisons [4] Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the competitive dynamics in the OTA market will continue to evolve, with Booking's strong market position likely to persist despite regulatory challenges [5][6]

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Core Insights - Agoda has launched the Agoda Impact Lab, a new initiative aimed at fostering innovation and resilience in the travel and technology sectors across Asia [1][4] Group 1: Initiative Overview - The Agoda Impact Lab is designed as a collaborative platform for both public and private sectors to create, test, and implement practical solutions [2] - The Lab focuses on storytelling, industry upskilling, and capacity building, leveraging Agoda's expertise in eCommerce, technology, marketing, and analytics [2][3] Group 2: Training and Collaboration - Agoda will provide hands-on e-commerce training programs for accommodation providers in ASEAN and conduct Executive Masterclasses on emerging innovations like AI [3] - A joint working group will be established with ASEAN and WWF-Singapore to discuss the ecological and economic sustainability of emerging travel destinations [3] Group 3: Sustainable Tourism - The Impact Lab will promote the Sustainable Tourism Academy, offering free, self-paced sustainability training aligned with the Global Sustainable Tourism Council (GSTC) Standard [3] - Data-driven reports will be published to guide industry decisions regarding traveler demand, technology adoption, and localization [3] Group 4: Company Background - Agoda operates a digital travel platform with over 6 million holiday properties, 130,000 flight routes, and 300,000 activities available for booking [4][6] - The company is headquartered in Singapore and is part of Booking Holdings, employing over 7,000 staff across 27 markets [6]

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Core Insights - OpenTable has released its list of Canada's Top 100 Romantic Restaurants for 2026, based on over 900,000 diner reviews and various metrics [1][19] - There is a cultural shift in how Canadians celebrate Valentine's Day, with 51% indicating it is now about all types of relationships, not just romantic ones [5][8] - Group dining is increasingly popular, with significant year-over-year increases in larger party sizes for Valentine's Day and Galentine's Day [4][6] Group 1: Valentine's Day Dining Trends - Nearly half (49%) of Canadians plan to dine out on Valentine's Day, but 40% find it challenging to secure a reservation, spending an average of 2 hours and 14 minutes searching [2][6] - Dining on Valentine's Day in 2025 saw a 46% increase year-over-year, with a 54% increase during the Valentine's Day weekend [7] - More than half (53%) of single Canadians would consider going to a restaurant for a first date on Valentine's Day, rising to 65% among Gen Z [7][8] Group 2: Changing Celebrations - 37% of Canadians plan to celebrate Galentine's or Palentine's Day, with 59% intending to do so over a meal out [4][5] - The rise in group dining is evident, with a 65% increase in parties of four and an 88% increase in parties of six for Valentine's Day 2025 [4] - Gen Z is a driving force behind the shift in celebration styles, with 59% planning a Galentine's or Palentine's Day celebration, which is 22% above the national average [5] Group 3: Spending Behavior - 33% of Canadians expect to spend more at restaurants for Valentine's Day this year compared to last year [6] - Galentine's Day in 2025 saw a 53% year-over-year increase in dining at restaurants priced $51 and above [6] - The Top 100 Romantic Restaurants list includes various dining options, from intimate settings to group dining spaces, catering to the evolving preferences of diners [5][10]