Over the last year, Blue Bird Corporation ( BLBD ) has given up most of the gains that it generated in May 2024 due to uncertainty regarding a key industry tailwind for the EV school buses. Although theI am a value focused investor, conducting fundamental research on sectors like but not limited to chemicals, homebuilders, building materials, industrials and metals & mining. I prefer to invest in stocks which are cheaply available and have a catalyst in the near future. My investment horizon ranges from a q ...

Company Performance - Blue Bird (BLBD) closed at $35.36, reflecting a -0.69% change from the previous day, underperforming the S&P 500's 0.58% gain [1] - Over the past month, Blue Bird's shares have increased by 9.98%, surpassing the Auto-Tires-Trucks sector's gain of 5.01% and the S&P 500's loss of 0.84% [1] Earnings Forecast - Blue Bird is expected to release earnings on May 7, 2025, with a forecasted EPS of $0.96, indicating a 7.87% increase from the same quarter last year [2] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate projects net sales of $390 million, up 12.74% from the previous year [2] Annual Estimates - For the annual period, the Zacks Consensus Estimates predict earnings of $4 per share and revenue of $1.45 billion, representing increases of +15.61% and +7.92% respectively from the last year [3] - Recent revisions to analyst forecasts for Blue Bird are crucial as they reflect changing business trends and analysts' outlook on the company's health and profitability [3] Valuation Metrics - Blue Bird's current Forward P/E ratio is 8.91, which is lower than the industry's average Forward P/E of 9.95, indicating a valuation discount [6] - The company has a PEG ratio of 0.82, aligning with the average PEG ratio of the Automotive - Domestic industry [7] Industry Context - The Automotive - Domestic industry, part of the Auto-Tires-Trucks sector, holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 202, placing it in the bottom 19% of over 250 industries [8] - Research indicates that industries in the top 50% of the Zacks Industry Rank outperform those in the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [8]

Industry Overview - The Zacks Domestic Auto industry encompasses companies involved in designing, manufacturing, and retailing various types of vehicles, including passenger cars, trucks, and electric vehicles [2] - The industry is highly consumer cyclic and is undergoing significant transformation due to technological advancements and digitization [2] Factors Affecting Industry Prospects - The newly introduced tariff by President Trump is expected to worsen affordability issues, with average new car prices nearing $50,000, potentially leading to higher costs for consumers [3] - Economic uncertainty is projected to impact demand, with the Fed reducing its GDP growth forecast for 2025 from 2.1% to 1.7% and raising core inflation estimates to 2.8% [4] - The introduction of more affordable electric vehicles (EVs), priced at $35,000 or less, is anticipated to attract buyers despite economic challenges [5] Current Industry Ranking and Performance - The Zacks Automotive – Domestic industry currently holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 188, placing it in the bottom 23% of 250 Zacks industries, indicating dim near-term prospects [6][7] - The industry's earnings estimates for 2025 and 2026 have decreased by 42.9% and 15.6%, respectively, over the past year, reflecting a negative earnings outlook [8] Market Performance - Over the past year, the Domestic Auto industry has outperformed the auto sector but lagged behind the Zacks S&P 500 composite, with a decline of 4.2% compared to the sector's 16.4% and S&P 500's 1.9% [11] Valuation Metrics - The industry is currently trading at an EV/EBITDA ratio of 26.02X, significantly higher than the S&P 500's 14.96X and the sector's 14.69X, indicating a premium valuation despite being debt-laden [14] Company Highlights - **Blue Bird Corporation (BLBD)**: Engaged in manufacturing school buses, with a strong order backlog of nearly 4,400 units. The company expects a record full-year adjusted EBITDA margin of 14% for fiscal 2025 [19][20] - **Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)**: Recognized as a technology innovator in the EV space, with plans for Full Self-Driving services and new product launches expected to enhance profitability. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 sales and EPS implies year-over-year growth of 7.54% and 9.92%, respectively [23][24] - **General Motors Company (GM)**: Holds a 16.5% market share in the U.S. and has achieved significant cost reductions. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for GM's 2025 EPS indicates year-over-year growth of 8.58% [27][28]

Core Insights - Economic and political policy changes can have both positive and negative impacts on companies, highlighting the importance of monitoring these factors for investment decisions [1]. Company Overview - Blue Bird Corporation (NASDAQ: BLBD) has gained attention since July 2023, indicating a potential undervaluation or overlooked investment opportunity by the market [1]. Analyst Background - The analyst, Dilantha De Silva, has over 10 years of experience in the investment industry, focusing on small-cap stocks that are often overlooked by Wall Street [1]. - Dilantha is a CFA Level III candidate and an Associate Member of the Chartered Institute for Securities and Investment (CISI), showcasing a strong professional background [1]. - His work has been featured on major financial platforms such as CNBC, Bloomberg, Nasdaq, and Yahoo Finance, indicating a reputable presence in the investment community [1].

Company Overview - Blue Bird Corporation (BLBD) is experiencing significant attention from investors due to high implied volatility in its options market, particularly the Apr 17, 2025 $22.50 Call option [1] - The company currently holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) in the Automotive - Domestic industry, which is positioned in the bottom 17% of the Zacks Industry Rank [3] Analyst Insights - Over the past 60 days, one analyst has raised the earnings estimate for Blue Bird for the current quarter from 92 cents per share to 96 cents, indicating a positive outlook [3] - No analysts have revised their earnings estimates downward during this period, suggesting a stable or improving sentiment towards the company's performance [3] Market Sentiment - The high implied volatility suggests that options traders are anticipating a significant price movement for Blue Bird shares, which could be indicative of an upcoming event that may lead to a substantial rally or sell-off [2][4] - Options traders often seek to capitalize on high implied volatility by selling premium, aiming for the underlying stock to not move as much as expected by expiration [4]

Core Viewpoint - The individual investor adopts a contrarian investment style, focusing on deep value opportunities, particularly in stocks that have recently experienced sell-offs due to non-recurrent events, while also considering insider buying as a positive signal [1] Investment Strategy - The investment portfolio is split approximately 50%-50% between shares and call options, indicating a balanced approach to risk and potential returns [1] - The investor's timeframe for holding positions typically ranges from 3 to 24 months, suggesting a medium-term investment horizon [1] - Fundamental analysis is employed to assess the health of companies, including their leverage and financial ratios compared to sector and industry averages [1] - Technical analysis is utilized to optimize entry and exit points, with a focus on support and resistance levels on weekly charts [1] Stock Selection Criteria - The investor screens for stocks that have undergone recent sell-offs, particularly when there is insider buying at the new lower price, indicating potential recovery [1] - Professional background checks are conducted on insiders who purchase shares post-sell-off, adding a layer of due diligence to the investment process [1]

Company Performance - Blue Bird (BLBD) closed at $34.20, reflecting a -1.53% change from the previous session, underperforming the S&P 500's daily loss of 1.12% [1] - Over the past month, shares of Blue Bird have decreased by 4.14%, compared to a loss of 2.8% in the Auto-Tires-Trucks sector and a 2.91% loss in the S&P 500 [1] Upcoming Earnings - Blue Bird is expected to report an EPS of $0.96, representing a 7.87% increase from the prior-year quarter [2] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenue is projected at $390 million, which is a 12.74% increase from the year-ago period [2] Annual Forecast - For the entire year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates forecast earnings of $4 per share and revenue of $1.5 billion, indicating increases of +15.61% and +10.97%, respectively, compared to the previous year [3] Analyst Estimates - Recent modifications to analyst estimates for Blue Bird reflect evolving short-term business trends, with positive revisions seen as a good sign for the company's outlook [4] - Adjustments in estimates are directly associated with imminent stock price performance, and the Zacks Rank model incorporates these changes for actionable insights [5] Zacks Rank and Valuation - Blue Bird currently holds a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), with the consensus EPS projection remaining stagnant over the past 30 days [6] - The company is trading at a Forward P/E ratio of 8.69, which is below the industry average of 11.06, and has a PEG ratio of 0.8, matching the industry average [7] Industry Context - The Automotive - Domestic industry, part of the Auto-Tires-Trucks sector, has a Zacks Industry Rank of 209, placing it in the bottom 17% of over 250 industries [8]

Group 1 - Blue Bird Corporation (NASDAQ: BLBD) is highlighted as an intriguing investment opportunity due to its focus on the school bus manufacturing sector [1] - The company emphasizes cash flow generation, which is essential for value and growth prospects [1] Group 2 - Crude Value Insights provides an investing service centered on oil and natural gas, offering tools for in-depth cash flow analyses [2] - Subscribers have access to a stock model account and live chat discussions regarding the sector [2]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of conducting personal in-depth research and due diligence before making investment decisions [3]. Company and Industry Summary - The analysis is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered as professional investment advice [3]. - There is a clear statement that past performance does not guarantee future results, indicating a cautious approach to investment recommendations [4]. - The article highlights that the views expressed may not reflect those of the platform as a whole, suggesting a diversity of opinions among analysts [4].

Core Insights - The article highlights the importance of accessing high-quality analysis of Wall Street buying and selling ideas through a subscription service called Beyond the Wall Investing [1] Group 1 - Daniel Sereda serves as the chief investment analyst at a family office, managing investments across various continents and asset classes [1] - The role requires navigating a vast amount of information daily, focusing on filtering critical data to extract valuable investment ideas [1] - Beyond the Wall Investing provides insights similar to those prioritized by institutional market participants, enhancing the investment decision-making process [1]