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Markets not surprised. 10-year Treasury yield rises modestly. The tariffs Trump imposed by invoking the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) of 1977, both the “reciprocal” tariffs designed to reduce the trade deficit, and the tariffs designed to reduce fentanyl trafficking out of China, Mexico, and Canada, got struck down in the Supreme Court by a 6-3 vote, released today. The three dissenters were Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, and Brett Kavenough.Over half of the tariff revenues have been g ...

Core Viewpoint - The online dating app sector is experiencing significant stock price declines, raising questions about its future viability and potential as a value investment [1][12]. Group 1: Market Performance - Match Group's share price has decreased nearly 85%, while Bumble has lost over 95% and Grindr has fallen around 60% [1]. - Match Group's revenue is projected to remain stable at approximately USD 3.5 billion in 2026, with free cash flow expected to rise from USD 1 billion in 2025 to between USD 1.09 billion and USD 1.14 billion [13]. - Bumble's market cap has shrunk to around USD 400 million, trading at approximately 1x sales and 3x EV/EBITDA [17]. Group 2: User Engagement and Monetization - Tinder has a substantial user base, with 50-75 million monthly active users globally, and captures 30-40% of the industry's revenue [3][4]. - The app's monetization strategy relies heavily on upselling features, indicating a strong ability to generate revenue from its users [4]. - Grindr's user behavior differs from general dating apps, with users spending approximately 140-150 minutes per week on the platform, leading to higher advertising revenue per user [20]. Group 3: Industry Challenges - The dating app industry faces criticism regarding user satisfaction, with headlines indicating that users are becoming fatigued with the platforms [5]. - Concerns have been raised about the addictive nature of dating apps, with some reports suggesting they may hinder rather than help users find meaningful relationships [14][15]. - New AI-driven matchmaking tools are emerging, potentially disrupting traditional dating app revenue models [14]. Group 4: Management and Strategic Initiatives - Match Group appointed Spencer Rascoff as CEO, who has a strong background in M&A and has invested millions in company stock, indicating confidence in the turnaround strategy [9]. - Deutsche Bank's research highlights a three-phase turnaround plan focusing on cultural reset and product revitalization, with a commitment to returning at least 100% of free cash flow to shareholders [11]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The stock of Match Group is considered potentially undervalued, trading at 9x FY26E EBITDA, with projections suggesting a favorable risk-reward scenario for patient investors [11][16]. - Grindr's stock price has fallen significantly, but it may be seen as cheap compared to a previous buyout offer of USD 18 per share, now trading around USD 10 [24][25]. - The dating app industry remains complex, with conflicting signals making it difficult to form a high-conviction view on future performance [29].

Core Viewpoint - Bumble (BMBL) has experienced a significant decline in its stock price, falling 66% over the past year and more than 96% since its IPO, leading to a valuation that suggests the company is trading as if it is virtually bankrupt [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - The stock has decreased by 66% in the last year [1] - Since its IPO, Bumble's stock has plummeted over 96% [1] - The current valuation indicates that the market perceives Bumble as a nearly bankrupt entity [1] Group 2: Investment Analysis - The analysis focuses on fundamental aspects, aiming to identify undervalued stocks with growth potential [1]

Core Insights - Bumble went public on February 11, 2021, with shares surging 76% on the IPO day, leading to a valuation of $14 billion [1] - The company reported 40 million monthly users across its Bumble and Badoo apps at the time of the IPO, utilizing a "freemium" model to convert free users into paying subscribers [2] Financial Performance - From January 29, 2020, to September 30, 2020, Bumble generated $376.6 million in revenue, with $231.5 million from the Bumble app and $145.1 million from Badoo, but incurred a net loss of $84.1 million during this period [3] - Despite the net loss, Bumble's paying users increased to 1.1 million by September 30, 2020, up from 844,000 the previous year [4] Stock Performance - Over the five years since its IPO, Bumble's shares have decreased by 92.5%, closing at $3.24 per share recently, meaning an initial $1,000 investment would now be worth only $75 [5] - As of the latest earnings report, paying users across Bumble's apps reached 3.57 million, a 16% decrease year over year, while total revenue also fell by 10% year over year [6]

Company Performance - Bumble Inc. (BMBL) stock decreased by 2.99% to $3.24, underperforming the S&P 500's daily loss of 0.84% [1] - Prior to the recent trading session, Bumble's shares had declined by 8.24%, contrasting with the Computer and Technology sector's gain of 1.75% and the S&P 500's gain of 1.8% [1] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimates for Bumble Inc. predict a full-year earnings of -$1.86 per share and revenue of $962.96 million, indicating a year-over-year earnings increase of 59.65% while revenue remains unchanged [2] Analyst Sentiment - Changes in analyst estimates for Bumble Inc. are crucial as they reflect the evolving business trends, with upward revisions indicating positive sentiment towards the company's operations and profit generation capabilities [3] Valuation Metrics - Bumble Inc. is currently trading at a Forward P/E ratio of 3.8, significantly lower than the industry average Forward P/E of 22.25 [6] - The company has a PEG ratio of 0.12, compared to the Internet - Software industry's average PEG ratio of 1.24, suggesting a favorable valuation relative to expected earnings growth [6] Industry Context - The Internet - Software industry, which includes Bumble Inc., holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 89, placing it in the top 37% of over 250 industries, indicating strong performance potential [7]

Core Insights - Fresh Step and Best Friends Animal Society have launched a campaign called "Date Cats, Not Humans," allowing Bumble users to adopt cats starting February 3, 2026 [1][2] - The campaign aims to connect singles with adoptable cats, promoting the idea that having a cat can enhance one's dating life [2][3] Adoption Initiative - Users can swipe right on adoptable cats through the Bumble app or visit bestfriends.org/FreshStep to view available cats in shelters nationwide [5] - Fresh Step will provide a coupon for a month of free litter to everyone who adopts a cat in February, and will cover adoption fees during Valentine's Day weekend in select cities [6][13] Research Findings - A study by Fresh Step and YouGov indicates that cat owners are more emotionally open and likely to receive positive responses on dating apps, with 24% of cat owners stating a cat photo increases their chances of matching [2][7] - Cat owners are significantly more likely to swipe right on profiles featuring cats, with 11% of cat owners doing so compared to only 2% of non-cat owners [7] Brand Strategy - The campaign is part of Fresh Step's brand refresh, focusing on improving the shopping experience for pet owners through better packaging and product updates [9] - Fresh Step has a history of supporting animal welfare, having donated millions of dollars and over one million pounds of litter to shelters [10] Organizational Mission - Best Friends Animal Society aims to make the country no-kill, emphasizing the importance of finding homes for adoptable pets and reducing unnecessary euthanasia [8][11]

Core Insights - Bumble, Match Group, and CrunchBase experienced cyberattacks, as reported by Bloomberg News, citing spokespersons from the affected companies [1] Company Impact - Bumble, Match Group, and CrunchBase are the specific companies that were targeted in the cyberattacks [1]

Company Performance - Bumble Inc. (BMBL) closed at $3.68, reflecting a -5.15% change from the previous day, underperforming the S&P 500's gain of 0.41% [1] - Over the last month, Bumble's shares increased by 12.46%, outperforming the Computer and Technology sector's gain of 0.49% and the S&P 500's gain of 0.38% [1] Earnings Estimates - Zacks Consensus Estimates predict Bumble Inc. will report earnings of -$1.86 per share and revenue of $962.96 million for the fiscal year, indicating a 59.65% increase in earnings but no change in revenue compared to the previous year [2] Analyst Estimates - Recent changes to analyst estimates for Bumble Inc. suggest a positive outlook, as revisions often reflect near-term business trends [3] - The Zacks Rank system, which incorporates these estimate changes, provides actionable insights for investors [4] Zacks Rank and Valuation - Bumble Inc. currently holds a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell), with a 3.09% decline in the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate over the past month [5] - The company is trading at a Forward P/E ratio of 4.41, significantly lower than the industry average of 24.04, and has a PEG ratio of 0.14 compared to the industry average of 1.42 [6] Industry Overview - The Internet - Software industry, part of the Computer and Technology sector, has a Zacks Industry Rank of 78, placing it in the top 32% of over 250 industries [7] - Research indicates that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [7]

Core Viewpoint - The film "Swiped" portrays the story of Whitney Wolfe Herd, founder of Bumble, as a representation of contemporary female entrepreneurs, highlighting the complexities and societal expectations surrounding their narratives [1][2]. Group 1: Characteristics of Female Founders - Resilience and perseverance are prominent traits among female founders, exemplified by Whitney Wolfe Herd's journey through challenges in a male-dominated tech industry [4][5]. - Self-motivation is a key driver for female entrepreneurs, often stemming from personal experiences that highlight unmet needs in the market [5][6]. - Female founders tend to exhibit a transformational leadership style, focusing on team cohesion and emotional intelligence rather than traditional authoritative management [7][8]. Group 2: The "Girlboss" Myth - The "Girlboss" phenomenon emerged in the early 2010s, promoting an idealized image of female entrepreneurs as successful, stylish, and inspirational figures [12][13]. - This cultural narrative has faced backlash as the complexities of real-world business challenges and ethical dilemmas have surfaced, leading to a disillusionment with the "Girlboss" archetype [2][16]. - The decline of the "Girlboss" myth has been marked by scandals involving prominent female entrepreneurs, revealing the pressures and unrealistic expectations placed on them [15][17]. Group 3: Societal Expectations and Gender Identity - Female identity can serve as both an advantage and a constraint in brand building, with Bumble's branding reflecting a commitment to female empowerment [9][10]. - The dual expectations placed on female founders often create a "double bind," where they are judged for being either too assertive or not assertive enough [10][11]. - The narrative surrounding female entrepreneurs is influenced by societal perceptions, which can lead to a cycle of elevation and criticism based on their successes and failures [18][19]. Group 4: Future Perspectives - The ultimate goal is to shift the focus from gender to the inherent qualities of entrepreneurship, fostering an environment where innovation and leadership are respected regardless of gender [21][22]. - Systemic support and societal attitude changes are necessary to create a more equitable entrepreneurial landscape, where all individuals can thrive based on their capabilities rather than gender biases [21][22].