I prefer to look for GARP (growth at a reasonable price) stocks but also look for opportunities everywhere else. I don't have a specified time horizon. I invest in a stock for as long as my thesis holds true, and I get out when the facts change. In addition, I've developed market-beating algorithms with Python that have helped me find attractive investment opportunities within my own portfolio, and I have been investing since 2016.On top of that, I've worked at TipRanks as an analysis/news writer and even a ...

UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION Washington, D.C. 20549 FORM 10-K (Mark One) ☒ ANNUAL REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 For the fiscal year ended December 31, 2024 OR ☐ TRANSITION REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 For the transition period from to Commission File Number: 001-41805 MAPLEBEAR INC. (Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter) (State or other jurisdiction of incorporation) 50 Beale ...

Maplebear Inc CART also known as Instacart reported worse-than expected fourth-quarter revenue. The following are the analysts comments on the company’s performance.Needham analyst Bernie McTernan reiterated a Buy rating on the shares and maintained the price forecast of $56.00.Order growth for CART picked up pace for the second straight quarter, reaching +10.6% in fourth-quarter, partly driven by continued increases in order frequency, which seems to be a growing positive factor for the company, noted the ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2024, the company delivered Gross Transaction Value (GTV) at the high end of guidance, growing 10% year-over-year, driven by an 11% increase in orders, partially offset by a 1% decline in average order value [21][22] - GAAP net income reached $148 million, an increase of $13 million year-over-year, while adjusted EBITDA was $252 million, up 27% year-over-year [23][24] - Operating cash flow decreased to $153 million year-over-year due to fluctuations in working capital [23] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Transaction revenue grew by 10% year-over-year, supported by shopper efficiencies and affordability initiatives [22] - Advertising and other revenue also increased by 10% year-over-year, driven by strong performances from emerging brands and large brand partners [22] - The company saw deeper penetration of Instacart+ members, with strong engagement and order frequency growth among these members [25] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported that grocery prices have increased over 25% since 2019, highlighting the need for innovation and savings for customers [11] - Instacart captured the most GTV from new customers placing their first grocery convenience and alcohol orders on a digital-first platform [17] - The company is leading in share of sales among digital-first platforms, particularly in large baskets with over 70% share in baskets of $75 and up [17] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on innovation and growth, aiming to become indispensable for customers, retailers, and brands [7][8] - Key investment areas include enhancing core offerings in selection, affordability, and convenience, with a strong emphasis on enterprise solutions and advertising innovations [35][40] - The company is committed to maintaining a disciplined approach to stock-based compensation while targeting adjusted EBITDA expansion [30][42] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to extend its category leadership position and deliver profitable growth for stakeholders [18] - The company expects Q1 GTV to be between $9 billion and $9.15 billion, representing year-over-year growth of 8% to 10% [27] - Management noted that the reduction in free delivery thresholds for Instacart+ has led to increased order frequency and total GTV without negatively impacting larger basket orders [57] Other Important Information - The company has helped customers save approximately $1.2 billion through various affordability initiatives [62] - The rollout of Caper Carts is expected to drive double-digit increases in basket size at participating retailers [38][131] - The company is exploring international opportunities for its enterprise solutions, although it remains focused on the U.S. market for now [56] Q&A Session Summary Question: Key investment areas for 2025 - Management emphasized continued investment in core areas such as selection, affordability, and convenience, with a focus on enterprise solutions and advertising innovations [35][36][40] Question: Impact of marketing spend and Super Bowl ad - Marketing spend is viewed as part of the existing portfolio, with early positive feedback on the Super Bowl ad [66][67] Question: Supply and demand dynamics for shoppers - Shopper supply remains healthy, with a waitlist in most cities and high retention rates among shoppers [95][96] Question: Drivers behind transaction revenue and AOV - Transaction revenue is influenced by various factors, including retailer revenue and customer incentives, with AOV impacted by restaurant orders and the $10 minimum basket initiative [103][111] Question: Growth versus profitability framework for 2025 - The budgeting process involves evaluating returns on investments and maintaining flexibility to adjust spending based on performance [120][121] Question: Caper Carts implementation timeline - Early results from Caper Carts are positive, with plans for gradual rollout across retailers, emphasizing operational readiness [134] Question: Restaurant orders as a percentage of GTV - Restaurant adoption is still early, and the company does not break out restaurant GTV separately due to the integrated nature of the platform [125]

Core Insights - Maplebear (CART) reported revenue of $883 million for the quarter ended December 2024, reflecting a 10% increase year-over-year [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) was $0.53, up from $0.44 in the same quarter last year, with a significant EPS surprise of +43.24% compared to the consensus estimate of $0.37 [1] - The reported revenue was slightly below the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $887.54 million, resulting in a revenue surprise of -0.51% [1] Financial Performance Metrics - Gross Transaction Value (GTV) reached $8.65 billion, slightly exceeding the average estimate of $8.62 billion from nine analysts [4] - Total orders amounted to 77.5 million, surpassing the average estimate of 75.91 million based on eight analysts [4] - Revenue from advertising and other sources was $267 million, closely matching the average estimate of $267.32 million [4] - Revenue from transactions was $616 million, which was below the average estimate of $620.47 million [4] Stock Performance - Over the past month, Maplebear's shares have returned +8.1%, contrasting with a -1.8% change in the Zacks S&P 500 composite [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating potential performance in line with the broader market in the near term [3]

Core Insights - Maplebear (CART) reported quarterly earnings of $0.53 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.37 per share, and up from $0.44 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of 43.24% [1] - The company posted revenues of $883 million for the quarter ended December 2024, slightly missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.51%, but up from $803 million year-over-year [2] - Maplebear shares have increased approximately 19.2% since the beginning of the year, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 1.7% [3] Earnings Outlook - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.40 on revenues of $896.17 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is $1.60 on revenues of $3.69 billion [7] - The estimate revisions trend for Maplebear is mixed, leading to a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating expected performance in line with the market in the near future [6] Industry Context - The Internet - Commerce industry, to which Maplebear belongs, is currently ranked in the top 26% of over 250 Zacks industries, suggesting a favorable outlook compared to lower-ranked industries [8] - Empirical research indicates a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions, which can be tracked by investors [5]

Financial Performance - Instacart achieved Q4 2024 orders and Gross Transaction Value (GTV) growth of 11% and 10% year-over-year, respectively[2]. - Total Gross Transaction Value (GTV) for FY 2024 was $33,461 million, representing a 10% year-over-year growth[43]. - Total revenue for FY 2024 reached $3,378 million, up 11% year-over-year, accounting for 10.1% of GTV[43]. - GAAP net income for FY 2024 was $457 million, reflecting a significant increase of $2,079 million year-over-year due to reduced stock-based compensation expenses[43]. - Adjusted EBITDA for FY 2024 was $885 million, up 38% year-over-year, representing 2.6% of GTV and 26% of total revenue[43]. - In Q4 2024, GTV was $8,645 million, a 10% increase year-over-year, with orders rising 11% to 77.5 million[48]. - Q4 2024 total revenue was $883 million, up 10% year-over-year, representing 10.2% of GTV[48]. - GAAP gross profit for Q4 2024 was $664 million, up 9% year-over-year, maintaining 7.7% of GTV[52]. - Advertising and other revenue in Q4 2024 was $267 million, reflecting a 10% year-over-year growth and consistent at 3.1% of GTV[50]. - Total revenue for Q4 2023 was $803 million, a decrease of 9% compared to $883 million in Q4 2024[91]. - Gross profit for Q4 2023 was $608 million, representing a gross margin of 75.8%[91]. - Net income for Q4 2023 was $135 million, compared to a net loss of $1,622 million in the previous year[91]. - Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2023 was $199 million, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 24.8%[95]. - Gross transaction value (GTV) for Q4 2023 was $7,891 million, an increase of 9.6% from $8,645 million in Q4 2024[95]. Customer Engagement and Growth Strategies - The company lowered the minimum basket size for $0 delivery fees from $35 to $10 for Instacart+ members, enhancing order frequency and GTV[5]. - Instacart has improved found and fill rates for 10 consecutive quarters, with nearly 10% of orders coming from stores using Carrot Tags software[6]. - Over 1,800 retail banners partner with Instacart, leading to the launch of over 30 new retailer sites in 2024, significantly increasing sales for upgraded retailers[8]. - Carrot Ads partnerships have expanded, with a 7X increase in retail media revenue for Schnucks after adopting Instacart's ad formats[9]. - The introduction of Family Accounts has led to larger basket sizes as customers shop together[25]. - Instacart's collaboration with OpenAI on the AI agent, Operator, aims to enhance customer convenience in ordering groceries[25]. - Instacart's ability to attract and increase engagement of customers and shoppers is critical for future growth, as highlighted in their forward-looking statements[68]. - The company emphasizes the importance of strategic partnerships and technological advancements in driving future growth and shareholder value[67]. - Instacart's management is focused on expanding capabilities and services to enhance customer experience and market presence[67]. Financial Position and Assets - As of December 31, 2024, Instacart's cash and cash equivalents increased to $2,137 million from $1,278 million in 2023, representing a growth of 67.3%[88]. - The total current assets of Instacart amounted to $2,697 million, a decrease from $3,305 million in the previous year[88]. - Instacart's total liabilities decreased to $800 million in 2024 from $836 million in 2023, reflecting a reduction of 4.3%[88]. - The accumulated deficit improved to $(2,635) million in 2024 compared to $(3,585) million in 2023, indicating a reduction of 26.4%[88]. - Instacart's total stockholders' equity increased to $3,750 million in 2024 from $3,093 million in 2023, marking a growth of 21.2%[88]. Operational Efficiency - The company defines Gross Transaction Value (GTV) as the value of products sold through Instacart, which includes customer tips and fees, indicating the health of the business[73]. - Adjusted EBITDA is used to assess performance, excluding various expenses, and is a key metric for evaluating operational efficiency[75]. - Operating expenses for Q4 2023 totaled $562 million, a decrease of 10% from $509 million in Q4 2024[91]. - Total operating expenses for the three months ended December 31, 2023, were $562 million, with a decrease to $470 million in the following quarter[102]. - Adjusted total operating expenses as a percent of GTV decreased from 7.1% in December 2023 to 5.6% in March 2024[102]. - Research and development expense for the three months ended December 31, 2023, was $205 million, with a reduction to $115 million in March 2024[102]. - Adjusted research and development expense as a percent of GTV decreased from 2.6% in December 2023 to 1.4% in March 2024[102]. - General and administrative expense was $107 million for the three months ended December 31, 2023, and decreased to $74 million in the following quarter[102]. - Adjusted general and administrative expense as a percent of GTV improved from 1.4% in December 2023 to 0.9% in March 2024[102]. - Sales and marketing expense for the three months ended December 31, 2023, was $60 million, increasing to $179 million in March 2024[102]. - Adjusted sales and marketing expense as a percent of GTV was 2.3% in December 2023, rising to 2.2% in March 2024[102]. - Cost of revenue for the three months ended December 31, 2023, was $185 million, with a slight increase to $206 million in March 2024[100]. - Adjusted cost of revenue as a percent of GTV remained stable at 2.5% across the quarters[100].

Core Insights - Instacart released its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2024, which are detailed in the fourth quarter 2024 Shareholder Letter available on the company's Investor Relations website [1] Company Overview - Instacart is the leading grocery technology company in North America, partnering with over 1,800 retail banners to facilitate online shopping, delivery, and pickup services from nearly 100,000 stores [3] - The company enables millions of consumers to obtain groceries from their preferred retailers and provides approximately 600,000 Instacart shoppers with flexible earning opportunities through order picking, packing, and delivery [3] - Instacart offers a suite of enterprise-grade technology products and services to retailers, enhancing their e-commerce capabilities, order fulfillment, and advertising services [3] - The company also focuses on nutrition security and health outcomes through its Instacart Health initiative, which provides tools to help consumers make healthier choices [3]

Core Insights - Instacart's CFO, Emily Reuter, will participate in a fireside chat at the Morgan Stanley Technology, Media & Telecom Conference on March 4, 2025 [1] - An audio webcast of the event will be available on Instacart's Investors Relations website [1] Company Overview - Instacart is the leading grocery technology company in North America, partnering with over 1,500 retail banners to facilitate online shopping, delivery, and pickup services from more than 85,000 stores [2] - The platform enables approximately 600,000 Instacart shoppers to earn income by picking, packing, and delivering orders on a flexible schedule [2] - Instacart offers retailers a suite of enterprise-grade technology products and services to enhance e-commerce experiences, fulfill orders, digitize stores, provide advertising services, and gain insights [2] - Instacart Ads allows thousands of CPG brands to connect directly with consumers online at the point of purchase [2] - Instacart Health provides tools to improve nutrition security and promote healthier choices for consumers [2]

Core Insights - Maplebear (CART), operating in the Zacks Internet-Commerce industry, has consistently surpassed earnings estimates, averaging a 72.38% beat over the last two quarters [1][3]. Earnings Performance - In the most recent quarter, Maplebear reported earnings of $0.42 per share, exceeding the expected $0.22 per share, resulting in a surprise of 90.91% [2]. - For the previous quarter, the company reported $0.20 per share against an expectation of $0.13 per share, leading to a surprise of 53.85% [2]. Earnings Estimates and Predictions - Analysts have been revising their estimates upward for Maplebear, contributing to a positive Earnings ESP of +23.68%, indicating bullish sentiment regarding the company's earnings prospects [6]. - The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) suggests a high likelihood of another earnings beat in the upcoming report [6]. Statistical Insights - Research indicates that stocks with a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 3 or better have a nearly 70% chance of producing a positive surprise [4]. - The Earnings ESP metric compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, with the Most Accurate Estimate reflecting the latest analyst revisions [5].