Core Viewpoint - Centene Corporation is expected to report a quarterly loss of $1.22 per share for the first quarter, an increase from $0.80 per share in the same period last year [1] Financial Performance - The consensus estimate for Centene's quarterly revenue is $48.35 billion, compared to $40.8 billion reported last year [1] - Centene reported better-than-expected third-quarter financial results on October 29 [1] Stock Performance - Shares of Centene fell 2.5% to close at $39.92 on Thursday [2]

Financial Performance - Centene Corporation reported a GAAP diluted loss per share of $(13.53) for the full year 2025, with an adjusted diluted earnings per share of $2.08[2]. - Total revenues for 2025 reached $194.8 billion, a 20% increase from $145.5 billion in 2024, driven by premium yield and membership growth[12]. - The company recorded non-cash impairment charges of $513 million related to the divestiture of Magellan Health businesses[4]. - GAAP net earnings attributable to Centene for the three months ended December 31, 2025, were $(1,101) million, compared to $283 million for the same period in 2024[20]. - Adjusted net earnings for the three months ended December 31, 2025, were $(583) million, while for the year ended December 31, 2025, it was $1,028 million[20]. - The company reported a goodwill impairment of $6,723 million for the year ended December 31, 2025, impacting overall financial performance significantly[23]. - The net loss attributable to Centene Corporation for the year was $6.674 billion, compared to a net income of $3.305 billion in 2024[39]. - Net earnings for the year ended December 31, 2025, were $(6,677) million, a decrease from $3,294 million in 2024[41]. Revenue and Membership - Total revenues for the year ended December 31, 2025, reached $194.777 billion, a 19.5% increase from $163.071 billion in 2024[39]. - Premium revenues for the same period were $171.556 billion, up 20.5% from $142.303 billion in 2024[39]. - Centene's total at-risk membership decreased to 27.6 million in 2025 from 28.6 million in 2024, with a notable decline in traditional Medicaid membership[6]. - Total at-risk membership reached 27,633,500 in Q4 2025, compared to 25,853,600 in Q4 2024, reflecting a growth of approximately 6.9% year-over-year[43]. Cost and Expense Management - The health benefits ratio (HBR) for the full year 2025 was 91.9%, up from 88.3% in 2024, primarily due to increased medical costs in Medicaid and Marketplace[12]. - The SG&A expense ratio improved to 7.4% for the full year 2025, down from 8.5% in 2024, reflecting better expense management[12]. - Selling, general and administrative expenses for the three months ended December 31, 2025, were $3,370 million, an increase from $3,231 million in the same period of 2024[29]. - The SG&A expense ratio improved to 7.5% in Q4 2025 from 8.9% in Q4 2024[43]. - Centene's adjusted SG&A expense ratio is calculated as adjusted selling, general and administrative expenses divided by premium and service revenues, providing insight into cost management[30]. Future Outlook - For 2026, Centene expects adjusted diluted EPS to exceed $3.00, indicating a positive outlook for earnings growth[1]. - Total revenues guidance for 2026 is projected between $186.5 billion and $190.5 billion[14]. - Premium and service revenues for 2026 are expected to be between $170.0 billion and $174.0 billion[14]. - The effective tax rate for 2026 is anticipated to be between 27.0% and 28.0%[14]. - The company anticipates adjusted diluted earnings per share for the year ending December 31, 2026, to be greater than $3.00[24]. Asset and Liability Management - Total assets decreased to $76.747 billion as of December 31, 2025, from $82.445 billion in 2024[37]. - Total liabilities increased to $56.691 billion in 2025, compared to $55.935 billion in 2024[37]. - Cash and cash equivalents rose to $17.888 billion in 2025, up from $14.063 billion in 2024[37]. - The company reported an impairment of $7.311 billion for the year, significantly higher than the $13 million in 2024[39]. - Centene's total stockholders' equity decreased to $20.033 billion in 2025 from $26.500 billion in 2024[37]. Medical Costs and Claims - Medical costs increased to $157.702 billion in 2025, compared to $125.707 billion in 2024, reflecting a 25.4% rise[39]. - The company incurred total medical claims of $157,794 million for the year ended December 31, 2025[44]. - Medical claims liability increased to $20,544 million by December 31, 2025, up from $18,308 million at the end of 2024[44]. - The Health Benefits Ratio (HBR) for Medicaid was 93.0% in Q4 2025, slightly improved from 93.4% in Q4 2024[43].

Core Insights - Centene Corporation (CNC) is expected to report a fourth-quarter 2025 loss of $1.25 per share on revenues of $48.24 billion, indicating a significant year-over-year earnings decline of 256.3% despite revenue growth of 18.2% [1][2] Financial Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Centene's total revenues in 2025 is $192.12 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 17.8%, while the EPS estimate for 2025 is $2.01, indicating a 72% decrease year-over-year [3] - Centene has beaten earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 75.2% [3] Earnings Predictions - The current model does not predict an earnings beat for Centene, as it has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) [4] Membership and Premiums - Centene's premiums are projected to rise by 22.5% year-over-year, driven by gains in commercial membership, although total membership is expected to decline by 2.4% [7][9] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates a 29.7% year-over-year increase in total commercial memberships and a 15.6% growth in Medicare PDP memberships [8] Cost and Margin Pressures - The total health benefits ratio is estimated to be 93.7%, up from 89.6% in the previous year, indicating increased medical costs that are expected to pressure earnings [10] Industry Comparisons - UnitedHealth Group reported a fourth-quarter adjusted EPS of $2.11, beating estimates but showing a 69% year-over-year decline due to elevated medical costs [11] - Elevance Health reported an adjusted EPS of $3.33, surpassing estimates and showing a 3.1% year-over-year increase, although it faced challenges from declining overall medical membership [12]

Core Viewpoint - Centene Corporation, a healthcare enterprise based in Missouri, has faced significant stock performance challenges, particularly a 33% decline over the past year, while showing slight improvement in 2026 with a 5.3% year-to-date growth [2][4]. Company Overview - Centene Corporation was founded in 1984 and operates as a healthcare enterprise providing services to under-insured and uninsured families and commercial organizations in the U.S. The company has a market capitalization of $21.3 billion and operates through various segments including Medicaid, Medicare, Commercial, and Other [1]. Stock Performance - Over the past year, Centene's stock has underperformed compared to the broader market, with a 33% decline, while the S&P 500 Index has returned 14.3% [2]. In 2026, the stock has slightly outperformed the S&P 500, which has risen by 1.4% [2]. Market Reaction - A significant drop of 10.7% in Centene's stock occurred on January 27 following the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services' announcement of a lower-than-expected payment rate increase of only 0.09% for 2027 Medicare Advantage plans, which raised concerns about the viability of government-sponsored health plan providers [4]. Earnings Outlook - For the fiscal year ending December 2025, analysts expect Centene to report a 72% year-over-year decline in adjusted EPS to $2.01. The company has a mixed earnings surprise history, surpassing estimates in three of the past four quarters [5]. Analyst Ratings - Centene currently holds a consensus "Hold" rating, with 19 analysts covering the stock, including four "Strong Buys," 13 "Holds," one "Moderate Sell," and one "Strong Sell." The sentiment has improved recently, with an increase in "Strong Buy" ratings [6]. Price Target Adjustments - Analysts have recently adopted a more positive outlook for Centene, with Mizuho raising its price target to $47 from $40 while maintaining a "Neutral" rating, and Wells Fargo increasing its target to $43 from $35 while keeping an "Equal Weight" stance [8].

Group 1: Company Overview - Centene Corporation (NYSE:CNC) is a healthcare enterprise that provides programs and services to under-insured and uninsured families and commercial organizations in the US [4] Group 2: Analyst Ratings and Price Targets - Mizuho increased its price target for Centene from $40 to $47 while maintaining a Neutral rating, indicating a cautious outlook due to decelerating healthcare utilization growth [1] - Wells Fargo raised its price target for Centene to $43 from $35 with an Equal Weight rating, expressing concerns about high uncertainty in Medicaid and Exchanges and a challenging environment for hospitals in 2026 [2] - Bernstein analyst Lance Wilkes raised the price target for Centene to $59 from $45 with an Outperform rating, anticipating a sector-wide turnaround in government managed care starting in 2026 [3] Group 3: Market Trends and Insights - Recent physician surveys suggest that healthcare utilization growth is decelerating, which may indicate that the utilization trend is currently peaking [1] - The managed care sector is expected to face challenges as post-COVID tailwinds diminish and legislative risks increase [2] - Current levels across all managed care organization sectors are viewed as attractive entry points for investors despite anticipated volatility [3]

Core Insights - WellCare of Kentucky and Centene Foundation are making a strategic investment to combat food insecurity in Kentucky, where nearly 280,000 people (18.2%) are facing hunger, the highest number recorded [1][2] Group 1: Financial Commitment - A donation of $145,000 will support access to healthy food in various communities across Kentucky, including organizations like Help Office of Owensboro and Family Service Society of Paducah [2] - Centene Foundation has committed $1.5 million to support food banks and community-based groups nationwide, particularly during the winter when demand increases [4] Group 2: Long-term Solutions and Initiatives - WellCare has initiated several programs aimed at addressing food security, emphasizing the urgent health challenges posed by hunger [3] - Centene's broader mission includes transforming community health through locally driven solutions that integrate food access with healthcare services [7] Group 3: Broader Impact and Programs - Centene has invested $77.1 million in food security initiatives across multiple states, implementing programs like Fresh Food Pharmacies and Food is Medicine to address chronic diseases and food insecurity [6] - More than 95% of Centene's Medicaid plans offer food or nutrition intervention programs, highlighting the importance of access to nutritious food in health outcomes [5]

Financial Performance - Adjusted diluted EPS for Q4 was reported at $3.33, with a full-year EPS of $30.29, benefiting from greater tax favorability and non-recurring items contributing $3.75 per share [1] - Q4 operating revenue reached $49.3 billion, reflecting a 10% year-over-year increase, driven by premium rate adjustments and acquisitions [4][7] - Operating cash flow for 2025 was $4.3 billion, with a target of at least $5.5 billion for 2026, and the company returned $4.1 billion to shareholders in 2025 [4][9] Guidance and Future Outlook - Elevance Health set a 2026 adjusted diluted EPS guidance of at least $25.50, with expectations to return to at least 12% adjusted EPS growth in 2027 [2][6][23] - The company anticipates 2026 to be a trough year for Medicaid, expecting an operating margin of approximately -1.75% and a decline of about 750,000 Medicaid members [5][10][12] - Medicare Advantage membership is expected to decline in the high teens percentage range, while targeting at least a 2% margin [5][13] Membership and Market Positioning - The company ended 2025 with 45.2 million members, a decrease of about 500,000 year-over-year, primarily due to lower Medicaid membership [8] - For the individual ACA business, Elevance expects at least 900,000 members by year-end 2026, with a 10% increase in membership coming out of open enrollment [14] - In commercial segments, employer group risk membership is projected to decline in the high single-digit percentage range due to deliberate pricing decisions [15] Operational Strategies - Executives emphasized "execution and repositioning" as key themes for 2026, focusing on portfolio actions across Medicaid, Medicare Advantage, and the individual ACA market [3] - Carelon is expected to see strong demand, particularly in high-cost areas, but near-term growth may be moderated by lower health plan membership [16] - The company updated its long-term enterprise margin target to 5%–6%, with mid-single-digit margins targeted for health benefits and Carelon segments [19][20]

分组1 - UnitedHealth's Q4 earnings release triggered a significant sell-off across the healthcare industry, impacting companies like Centene, which has notable exposure to governmental healthcare programs, albeit less than UnitedHealth [1] - The sell-off reflects broader market concerns regarding the performance and outlook of healthcare stocks following UnitedHealth's results [1] 分组2 - The article emphasizes the importance of fundamental analysis in making informed investment decisions, highlighting the author's experience in managing a family portfolio and understanding the balance between risk and reward [1] - The author aims to provide accessible insights for investors of all experience levels, leveraging a background in IT to navigate complexities in technology stocks while also exploring diverse sectors for investment opportunities [1]

分组1 - UnitedHealth's Q4 earnings release triggered a significant sell-off across the healthcare industry, impacting companies like Centene, which has notable exposure to governmental healthcare programs, albeit less than UnitedHealth [1] - The sell-off reflects broader market concerns regarding the performance and outlook of healthcare stocks following UnitedHealth's results [1] 分组2 - The article emphasizes the importance of fundamental analysis in making informed investment decisions, highlighting the author's experience in managing a family portfolio and understanding the balance between risk and reward [1] - The author aims to provide accessible insights for investors of all experience levels, leveraging a background in IT to navigate complexities in technology stocks and other sectors [1]

Humana跌17%，Elevance Health跌8%，Centene跌超7%。 (本文来自第一财经) Humana跌17%，Elevance Health跌8%，Centene跌超7%。 (本文来自第一财经) ...