Group 1: Company Performance - Coherent (COHR) has gained approximately 96.2% year-to-date, significantly outperforming the average loss of 10.6% in the Business Services sector [4] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for COHR's full-year earnings has increased by 12.9% over the past quarter, indicating improved analyst sentiment and a more positive earnings outlook [3] - Coherent holds a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy), reflecting its strong performance and favorable market conditions [3] Group 2: Industry Context - Coherent is part of the Technology Services industry, which includes 124 companies and currently ranks 89 in the Zacks Industry Rank, with an average gain of 21.5% year-to-date [5] - In contrast, FirstCash Holdings (FCFS), another outperforming stock in the Business Services sector, belongs to the Financial Transaction Services industry, which has seen a decline of 12.6% year-to-date and ranks 176 [6] - Investors should continue to monitor Coherent and FirstCash Holdings as they exhibit solid performance within their respective industries [6]

Summary of J.P. Morgan Research on AI Data Center Opportunities Industry Overview - The report discusses the expanding demand for AI data centers and the associated networking technologies, particularly focusing on the data center interconnect (DCI) market, which is estimated to have a total addressable market (TAM) of over $10 billion [1][13]. Key Concepts - **Scale-Up**: Refers to XPU-to-XPU connectivity within a tightly coupled node or local cluster. - **Scale-Out**: Involves the fabric linking multiple nodes across racks and pods within a single data center. - **Scale-Across**: Focuses on enabling distributed training between geographically separated data centers. - **Multi-Rail**: Increases fiber density to expand DCI capacity and support new use cases [1]. Market Opportunities - The report estimates that Scale-Across and Multi-Rail opportunities could represent a combined TAM of over $10 billion for the DCI market, matching the current DCI TAM [1]. - A specific example of Scale-Across involves a U.S. hyperscaler interconnecting two data centers over approximately 100 km, enabling 20-25 Pb/s of aggregate AI training traffic [5][7]. Financial Projections - The DCI content for Scale-Across opportunities could range from $300 million to $500 million per DCI connection, excluding optical fiber cable and connectors [11]. - The revenue opportunity per DCI connection is broken down as follows: - **Coherent Pluggable Modules**: 55,000 units at an ASP of $4,000 to $6,000. - **Reconfigurable Line Systems (RLS)**: 860 units at an ASP of $20,000 to $50,000. - **Ethernet Switches**: 1,720 units at an ASP of $700 to $1,000 [11][12]. Company Positioning - Companies best positioned for the DCI opportunity include: - **Networking**: Arista and Cisco. - **Optical**: Ciena, Coherent, Corning, Fabrinet, and Lumentum [15]. Infrastructure Challenges - Increasing fiber density requirements are driving the need for innovation in existing infrastructure rather than simply adding more equipment [17]. - Traditional in-line amplifier (ILA) huts are becoming bottlenecks due to their limited capacity, necessitating the development of multi-rail technology to increase fiber pair capacity from 16 to 128 or even 256 pairs [23][33]. Future Projections - Lumen's ambitious plan to expand its network fiber miles from 12 million in 2022 to 47 million by 2028 could represent a significant opportunity, with an estimated total revenue opportunity of $200 million to $300 million for the incremental Lumen opportunity alone [29][33]. Conclusion - The report highlights significant growth potential in the AI data center market, driven by technological advancements and increasing demand for high-capacity interconnect solutions. Companies involved in networking and optical technologies are well-positioned to capitalize on these emerging opportunities [1][15].

Core Insights - Coherent Corp.'s stock price has increased by 60.9% over the past year, significantly outperforming the industry growth of 5.7% and the S&P 500 Composite's rise of 16.6% [1] - The company has also outperformed peers such as Byrna Technologies and Industrial Tech Acquisitions, which saw declines of 0.9% and 11%, respectively [1] Stock Performance - Over the past month, Coherent's stock has risen by 12.4%, surpassing the slight dip of Industrial Tech Acquisitions and the 10.9% growth of Byrna Technologies [4] Growth Catalysts - The AI datacenter business has shown strong demand, with a 23% year-over-year revenue increase in the first quarter of fiscal 2026 [5] - The CEO indicated broad adoption of 800G and rapid adoption of 1.6T transceivers, expecting significant growth in these products in 2026 [6] - The production yield of 6-inch indium phosphide (InP) is higher than that of 3-inch InP, with plans to double internal production capacity in 2026 [7][8] - The Optical Circuit Switch (OCS) platform is projected to add over $2 billion in addressable market opportunity, with sequential revenue growth expected [9] - Demand for ZR/ZR+ DCI-focused products, including 100G, 400G, and 800G transceivers, is anticipated to continue growing [10] Financial Position - As of September 2025, Coherent held $875 million in cash reserves against a current debt of $48 million, indicating strong liquidity [11] - The current ratio was 2.33, up 6.4% from the previous quarter, exceeding the industry average of 1.54 [11] Revenue and Earnings Outlook - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2026 revenues is $6.7 billion, reflecting a 15.2% year-over-year growth, with fiscal 2027 expected to grow by 14.6% [13] - The consensus estimate for fiscal 2026 EPS is $5.02, indicating a 42.2% year-over-year growth, with fiscal 2027 EPS expected to increase by 25% [13] - Over the past 60 days, there have been upward revisions in EPS estimates for both fiscal 2026 and 2027, highlighting analyst confidence [14] Investment Recommendation - Coherent is positioned for rapid growth in 2026, driven by demand for 800G and 1.6T transceivers, advancements in InP production, and the OCS platform [15][16] - The strong balance sheet and positive growth outlook suggest that investors should consider buying the stock for potential long-term returns [17]

Core Viewpoint - Coherent has achieved a significant milestone with its next-generation 300mm silicon carbide (SiC) platform, aimed at meeting the increasing thermal efficiency demands of artificial intelligence data center infrastructure [2]. Group 1: Technology and Innovation - The new 300mm solution is developed to address the growing thermal load and performance scalability needs of modern data centers, leveraging Coherent's established 200mm platform technology [2]. - The platform's conductive SiC substrate features low resistivity, low defect density, and high uniformity, enabling low power consumption, high frequency, and good thermal stability [2]. - The technology is also applicable in AR/VR devices and power electronics, allowing for the production of thinner, more efficient waveguides for immersive display modules [2]. Group 2: Market Impact - The 300mm platform solidifies Coherent's leadership in wide bandgap semiconductor materials, facilitating innovation in data centers, optics, and power applications [3]. - The transition to 300mm wafer size allows for more devices per wafer and reduces the cost per chip, supporting applications in electric vehicles, renewable energy systems, and industrial automation [2].

Core Insights - The article highlights the growing importance of drone technology across various industries, emphasizing its evolution from basic operations to advanced missions, making drones essential tools [1] Group 1: Company Profiles - **AeroVironment Inc. (AVAV)**: Specializes in unmanned aircraft systems and efficient energy systems, serving primarily U.S. Department of Defense agencies. The company anticipates over 100% revenue growth and 10.4% earnings growth for the fiscal year ending April 2026 [5][7][8] - **Coherent Corp. (COHR)**: Focuses on breakthrough technologies across various markets, including industrial and communications. Expected revenue growth is 15.2% with earnings growth at 42.2% for the year ending June 2026 [9][10] - **Trimble Inc. (TRMB)**: Benefits from strong recurring revenue growth and digital adoption, particularly in its AECO and Field Systems segments. The company projects revenue growth of 6.9% and earnings growth of 11.1% for the next year [11][13] Group 2: Market Position and Growth Potential - AeroVironment's expected growth rates indicate a strong market position, particularly in defense-related applications, with a consistent earnings estimate over the past week [6][7] - Coherent's recent earnings estimate has improved by 9.6%, reflecting positive market sentiment and growth potential [10] - Trimble's focus on software-driven revenue and AI solutions positions it well for future growth, supported by a robust patent portfolio [12]

Core Thesis - Coherent Corp. is positioned for significant growth, with the market yet to fully recognize its potential, as evidenced by its recent performance and operational strength [1][2][6]. Financial Performance - The company has achieved ten consecutive double-beats over more than two years, indicating consistent outperformance [3]. - Gross margins are approaching 40%, and operating margins are nearing 20%, reflecting improved profitability [3]. Market Dynamics - Demand visibility has significantly expanded, with constrained supply in critical optical and laser segments reducing execution risk [4]. - The industrial-laser segment, which has historically underperformed, is expected to turn positive in the next quarter, alleviating a long-standing drag on earnings [4]. Competitive Positioning - Coherent's leadership in networking optics sets it apart from competitors like Lumentum and Broadcom, which do not offer the same growth-at-a-reasonable-price (GARP) profile [5]. Growth Potential - Analysts have raised the 12-month price target from $200 to $225, with a three-year potential target of $500, indicating the market's underappreciation of the company's growth trajectory [6]. - The combination of strong demand, margin expansion, and operational leverage positions Coherent as an exceptional growth story with both visibility and scalability [6].

Core Insights - Coherent Corp. has achieved a significant milestone with its next-generation 300mm silicon carbide (SiC) platform aimed at enhancing thermal efficiency in AI datacenter infrastructure [1][2] Group 1: Technology Development - The new 300mm SiC solution is designed to handle increasing thermal loads, addressing the performance and scalability requirements of modern datacenters [2] - Transitioning to larger diameter SiC wafers is expected to yield substantial improvements in energy efficiency and thermal performance, crucial for high power density and faster switching applications [2][4] Group 2: Applications and Innovations - While primarily focused on datacenter thermal management, Coherent is also advancing SiC technology for augmented reality (AR) and virtual reality (VR) devices, as well as power electronics [3][4] - The conductive SiC substrates offer low resistivity, low defect density, and high homogeneity, which enhance energy efficiency and thermal performance in next-generation datacenter systems [4] Group 3: Market Position - The 300mm platform strengthens Coherent's leadership in wide-bandgap semiconductor materials, facilitating innovation across various sectors including datacenters, optics, and power applications [5]

Group 1 - Ciena Corp, Coherent Inc, and Lumentum Holdings Inc are analyzed for market performance and investment opportunities [1] - The analysis covers recent financial results, market trends, and competitive positioning of these companies [1] - Key metrics such as revenue growth, profit margins, and market share are highlighted to assess the companies' financial health [1] Group 2 - Ciena Corp reported a significant increase in revenue, driven by strong demand for its networking solutions [1] - Coherent Inc has shown resilience in its financial performance despite market challenges, focusing on innovation and product development [1] - Lumentum Holdings Inc is positioned well in the optical communications market, with a focus on expanding its product offerings and customer base [1]

Industry Overview - The communication technology sector has experienced significant growth, with leading companies in the industry seeing triple-digit percentage increases year-to-date [2] - Prior to the second half of the year, this sector had received little attention compared to semiconductors, quantum computing, and other industries [3] Drivers of Growth - The explosive adoption of Artificial Intelligence (AI) has created a substantial demand for high-speed, scalable optical networking infrastructure [4] - Hyperscalers and cloud giants are rapidly building AI-optimized data centers, leading to a massive surge in orders for communication equipment [4] Company Performance - Ciena Corporation, Lumentum Holdings, and Coherent Corporation are benefiting from this demand, supplying critical infrastructure for interconnecting GPUs used in AI applications [4] - Ciena reported adjusted EPS of 67 cents in Q3, exceeding estimates of 53 cents, and generated $1.21 billion in revenue, also surpassing expectations [7] - Notably, non-telco customers accounted for 53% of Ciena's total revenue, indicating a shift towards cloud providers [7] Market Outlook - The current growth and guidance increases across the sector suggest a multi-year expansion driven by AI, potentially leading to unprecedented revenue and stock price levels [5] - Despite high price-to-earnings ratios, strong forward earnings and expanding margins indicate sustained long-term potential for companies in this sector [8]

Company Overview & Market Position - Vertiv Holdings (VRT) is a global designer and manufacturer of digital infrastructure technologies for communication networks and data centers [2] - Vertiv partners with Nvidia in a high-density reference design for extreme power and thermal requirements of Nvidia's 72 GPU rack scale systems [3] - Coherent Corporation is a global leader in lasers, optics, and photonic components used across various industries including AI [16] - Coherent is emerging as an important player in AI due to the shift towards silicon and photonics-based networking in data centers [15][19] Industry & Ranking - Vertiv Holdings is part of the Zach's Computers IT Services Industry Group, ranked in the top 32% [7] - The top 50% of Zach's ranked industries outperforms the bottom 50% by a factor of more than 2:1 [8] - Coherent has a Zach Rank of 2, driven by analyst upgrades [22] Financial Performance & Estimates (Vertiv) - Vertiv has delivered a 1489% average earning surprise over the last four quarters [9] - Vertiv reported third-quarter earnings of $124 per share, a 24% beat versus the Zach's consensus estimate, with earnings growing 63% from the same period last year [10] - Estimates for Vertiv's fourth quarter have been increased by 323% in the past 60 days [11] - Vertiv's Q4 Zach's consensus estimate now stands at $128 per share, reflecting potential growth of nearly 30% relative to the year-ago period [12] - Vertiv's revenues in the fourth quarter are projected to climb more than 22% to $286 billion [12] Financial Performance & Estimates (Coherent) - Analysts covering Coherent have unanimously upgraded their earnings estimates [22] - Coherent's current quarter estimates have jumped by 8%, next quarter is up by 95% [22] - Coherent's current year estimates have increased by almost 10% over the last 30 days, and next year earnings estimates have risen by 4% [23] - Coherent's sales are expected to grow 15% this year and 145% next year [23] - Coherent's earnings are expected to grow 256% annually over the next three to five years [25] Stock Performance & Valuation - Vertiv (VRT) stock is up nearly 200% off the April lows [12] - Coherent's stock is up approximately 50% this year and has tripled from the April lows from $50 to $161 [26] - Coherent is trading at 327 times forward earnings [25]