aave filed first DeFi protocol ETF with coinbase custody. $800m revenue in 2025 at $1.9b market cap is a 2.4x multiple. fintech companies trade 5-15x revenue. stani bought $16m during the 53% crash. when TradFi analysts start applying real valuation models to a protocol with $23b in active loans this math changes fast ...

Core Viewpoint - Concerns over quantum computing are causing institutional investors to hesitate in increasing their Bitcoin exposure, with a predicted maximum allocation of 3% until these concerns are addressed [1][2]. Group 1: Institutional Investment Concerns - Kevin O'Leary highlighted that the potential of quantum computers breaking Bitcoin's security is making institutions cautious about their investments [2][4]. - BlackRock recommends a Bitcoin allocation of only 1% to 2% in multi-asset portfolios, reflecting a conservative approach among major asset managers [3]. Group 2: Market Predictions and Trends - O'Leary anticipates that cryptocurrency market structure legislation will be passed before the midterm elections, with a specific date suggested as May 15 [5]. - As of the latest data, Bitcoin was trading at $68,166.08, showing a slight decline of 0.27% over the past 24 hours [5].

Market Overview - U.S. stock futures showed a positive bias during the Presidents' Day holiday, with S&P 500 futures up approximately 0.4% and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures climbing 0.3% [1] - The tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 futures also gained 0.4%, reflecting optimism from the previous trading session [1] Economic Indicators - Headline inflation has cooled to 2.4%, with core inflation dropping to 2.5%, the lowest since early 2021, reinforcing expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve as early as June [2] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has stabilized near 4.07%, providing a supportive backdrop for equities [2] Major Index Performance - The S&P 500 finished at 6,836.17, up less than 0.1%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 49,500.93, adding roughly 48 points [3] - The Nasdaq Composite slipped by 0.2% to 22,546.67, primarily due to a pullback in the semiconductor sector [3] - The Russell 2000 showed significant year-to-date strength, up over 6.6% as investors rotate into small-cap value plays [3] Upcoming Market Events - Palo Alto Networks is set to release its quarterly results on Tuesday, followed by Analog Devices and Booking Holdings on Wednesday [4] - Walmart will report its fourth-quarter and full-year fiscal 2026 earnings on Thursday, with analysts expecting revenue growth of 5.4% [5] - The Federal Reserve will release minutes from its recent policy meeting, along with upcoming U.S. GDP and PCE inflation data, which may signal potential rate cuts [5] Corporate News - Rivian Automotive saw a significant stock increase of over 26% due to analyst upgrades and rumors of expanded electric vehicle partnerships [6] - Coinbase Global surged 16.46% following a completed share buyback tranche and increased crypto-asset volatility [6] - Constellation Brands experienced an 8.04% decline after announcing a leadership transition [7] - Nvidia shares were down 2.2% ahead of its earnings call on February 25th [7] - AppLovin rebounded 6.4% amid discussions on the impact of artificial intelligence on SaaS business models [7]

Core Insights - Coinbase Global Inc. (COIN) reported a decline in both revenue and earnings for Q4 2025, with total revenues of $1.7 billion and net operating earnings per share of 66 cents, both missing consensus estimates [3][9] - The company is positioned to benefit from increased market volatility and rising crypto asset prices as the U.S. aims to become a global crypto hub, aligning with its strategic roadmap for 2026 [2] Financial Performance - Total transaction revenues fell by 36.8% year over year to $982.7 million, primarily due to a decrease in consumer transaction revenues [4] - Subscription and services revenues increased by 13.4% year over year to $727.4 million, driven by higher stablecoin revenues [4] - Net cash provided by operating activities was $2.4 billion in 2025, a decline of 21.8% year over year [5] Future Outlook - Coinbase anticipates subscription and services revenues to be between $550 million and $630 million, reflecting lower average USDC market capitalization and interest rates [5] - The company plans to focus on real-world asset (RWA) perpetuals, niche exchanges, and advanced trading platforms in 2026, aiming to strengthen its industry leadership [19] Market Position - COIN shares have decreased by 27.3% year to date, underperforming its industry, which declined by 9% [7] - The stock is trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 29.56, significantly higher than the industry average of 11.09 [15] Analyst Sentiment - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 earnings has decreased by 5.6% in the past week, indicating muted analyst sentiment [12] - The consensus estimates for 2026 and 2027 revenues suggest respective year-over-year increases of 8.5% and 11.6% [13]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the reliability of brokerage recommendations, particularly focusing on Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN), and emphasizes the importance of using these recommendations in conjunction with other research tools like the Zacks Rank [1][5]. Group 1: Brokerage Recommendations for Coinbase Global - Coinbase Global has an average brokerage recommendation (ABR) of 1.97, indicating a consensus between Strong Buy and Buy, based on 34 brokerage firms [2]. - Out of the 34 recommendations, 19 are classified as Strong Buy, accounting for 55.9%, while only one is classified as Buy, representing 2.9% [2]. Group 2: Limitations of Brokerage Recommendations - Studies indicate that brokerage recommendations have limited success in guiding investors towards stocks with the highest price increase potential [5]. - Analysts from brokerage firms often exhibit a positive bias in their ratings due to vested interests, leading to a disproportionate number of Strong Buy recommendations compared to Strong Sell [6][11]. Group 3: Zacks Rank vs. ABR - The Zacks Rank is a proprietary tool that classifies stocks based on earnings estimate revisions, providing a more reliable indicator of near-term price performance compared to ABR [8][12]. - Unlike ABR, which is based solely on brokerage recommendations, the Zacks Rank is updated frequently to reflect changes in earnings estimates, making it a timely indicator of future price movements [13]. Group 4: Current Earnings Estimates for Coinbase Global - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Coinbase Global has declined by 6% over the past month to $5.42, indicating growing pessimism among analysts regarding the company's earnings prospects [14]. - This decline in earnings estimates has resulted in a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) for Coinbase Global, suggesting caution despite the Buy-equivalent ABR [15].

Coinbase Stock Is No Longer at Mercy of Bitcoin. Cathie Wood's ARK Is Buying. - Barron'sSkip to Main ContentThis copy is for your personal, non-commercial use only. Distribution and use of this material are governed by our Subscriber Agreement and by copyright law. For non-personal use or to order multiple copies, please contact Dow Jones Reprints at 1-800-843-0008 or visit www.djreprints.com.# Coinbase Stock Is No Longer at the Mercy of Bitcoin. Cathie Wood's ARK Is Buying.By [Callum Keown]ShareResize--- R ...

Core Viewpoint - The decline in crypto prices is significantly impacting platforms like Robinhood and Coinbase, leading to missed earnings and revenue targets [1][2]. Company Performance - Robinhood has seen a direct negative effect on its performance due to a substantial portion of its customers investing in crypto, resulting in missed earnings, revenue, and net new assets [1]. - Coinbase's revenue has decreased by 22%, and it has also missed earnings per share, reflecting similar challenges tied to crypto performance [2][3]. Market Implications - The commentary suggests a cautious outlook for companies closely linked to retail speculation and the cyclical nature of the crypto market [4]. - Bitcoin has dropped 45.65% from its record high, currently priced at $68,607.43, which is affecting the stock prices of related companies [5]. Stock Performance - Robinhood's shares have fallen by 34.06% year-to-date and 33.95% over the last six months, although they are up 25.69% over the year [5]. - Coinbase's stock is down 30.53% year-to-date and 48.77% over the last six months, with a 37.91% decline over the year [5].

Core Insights - Retail users on Coinbase are demonstrating resilience by consistently purchasing Bitcoin and Ethereum during market downturns [1][2] - CEO Brian Armstrong noted that the majority of retail customers maintained or increased their Bitcoin and Ethereum balances from December to February [2] - Google search interest for Bitcoin reached a five-month high in February, coinciding with a significant price drop [2] Retail Accumulation - There has been a notable increase in the number of Bitcoin and Ethereum units held by retail users on Coinbase [2] - Binance retail traders exhibit strong optimism for Bitcoin, with a Long/Short ratio of 1.90 [3] - The Bitcoin Exchange Reserve metric indicates that investors are withdrawing coins for long-term holding, as reserves sharply declined after a sell-off [3] Financial Performance - Coinbase's fourth-quarter revenue for 2025 was reported at $1.78 billion, which fell short of analyst expectations, while earnings per share (EPS) of $0.66 exceeded forecasts [4] - The company's full-year revenue reached $7.2 billion, marking a 9% increase compared to the previous year [4] - Armstrong mentioned the potential for Coinbase to launch its own prediction market business, expanding beyond its current role as a retail distributor [4] Stock Performance - Coinbase shares experienced a 16.46% increase, closing at $164.32 during the last trading session [5] - Despite the recent price increase, COIN stock is characterized by a weaker price trend across short, medium, and long-term periods [5] - The stock holds an average Value ranking according to Benzinga's Edge Stock Rankings [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that Coinbase's retail users are showing resilience in the current market conditions, actively buying the dips [1] - According to Coinbase data, there has been an increase in the native unit holdings of BTC and ETH among retail users [1] - The majority of customers have maintained or increased their native unit balances from December to February [1]

⏱️ State of Crypto This Week: Your 60-second review• Coinbase misses Q4 earnings with $667M loss as transaction revenue drops 37% year-over-year while subscription and services revenue jumps 13% to $727.4M.• Ethereum developers propose ZK tech for anonymous AI interactions, enabling users to make thousands of API calls securely without linking requests to identity.• Binance employee targeted as three armed suspects arrested in France after breaking into senior figure's home, fleeing before stealing phones.• ...